150 Matching Annotations
  1. Apr 2022
  2. Mar 2022
  3. Feb 2022
    1. This article is for those who want to keep traveling despite restrictions due to covid. Basically giving tips on how to navigate the multiple governmental restrictions and policies including links to airline or country websites for choosing destinations. Because of this trend in travel advice in covid times, we may see attitudes towards travel shift to travel knowing the risks involved (quarantine, masks requirements, etc.) and hence see tourism rise again. Last minute covid holiday packages. What if the trend for remaining home also stayed the same for next five years and the adventure seekers become the avatars for the folks who want to stay at home.

      The crisis is changing the way how people will enjoy their international holiday, with an extra concern on testing and quarantine expenses and risk taking. That may have an impact on the tourism market, asking the airline companies to provide flexible policies /products and may witness the booming of travel insurance market.

    1. Bayes’ Theorem postulates that the probability of a hypothesis being true increases or decreases as pieces of evidence for or against it accumulate. In the words of Bennett (2009: 8), ‘the more unlikely a piece of evidence [E] is in light of alternatives to explanation H, the more that evidence [E] increases our confidence that H is true . . .’ Although it remains controversial whether it makes sense to assign specific numerical probabilities to qualitative evidence (Beach, 2017: 15; Fairfield and Charman, 2017; Zaks, 2021), applying the general principles of Bayesian inference can be considered another benchmark for process-tracing research.

      This only works if you can be certain you have some certainty that you have accumulated and considered a large enough set of possible alternatives with their potential sets of evidentiary support. Bayes is tempting but problematic

  4. Jan 2022
  5. Dec 2021
  6. Nov 2021
  7. Oct 2021
  8. Sep 2021
    1. This might be “nearby” behavior (such as order of creation of some objects in the same function), or a distant effect, such as change in behavior of a button on a web application.

      Interesting idea of changes with several reaches (near, far)... how could we visualize the cascades and scales of such changes?

  9. Aug 2021
  10. Jul 2021
  11. Jun 2021
    1. Christophe Fraser 💙 on Twitter: “Reading Cummings accounts of early creation of Test & Trace, a question I have is when and how it was morphed from aiming to find ~30 contacts per index case, needed to contain spread, into a service that contacts 2-4 contacts per index case, mostly within household.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1408454903249477632

  12. May 2021
  13. Apr 2021
  14. Mar 2021
  15. Feb 2021
    1. Maryanne Garry 🐑🇳🇿. (2020, December 12). A person with the virus who, say, has lunch with friends is a witness to an event in which the virus was possibly transmitted, and a suspect who might have transmitted it to others. Our new paper in PoPS @lorraine_hope @rachelz @drayeshaverrall and Jamie Robertson https://t.co/FoOlx78HB2 [Tweet]. @drlambchop. https://twitter.com/drlambchop/status/1337676716936896512

  16. Jan 2021
  17. Dec 2020
  18. Oct 2020
  19. Sep 2020
  20. Aug 2020
  21. Jul 2020
  22. Jun 2020
    1. Kucharski, A. J., Klepac, P., Conlan, A. J. K., Kissler, S. M., Tang, M. L., Fry, H., Gog, J. R., Edmunds, W. J., Emery, J. C., Medley, G., Munday, J. D., Russell, T. W., Leclerc, Q. J., Diamond, C., Procter, S. R., Gimma, A., Sun, F. Y., Gibbs, H. P., Rosello, A., … Simons, D. (2020). Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30457-6