503 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
  2. Jan 2022
    1. Prof. Debby Bogaert 💙. (2021, December 20). @chrischirp NL is slightly behind the UK re #omicron and based lockdown on a.o. This model (source @MarionKoopmans). Despite uncertainty the ‘continue as is’ effect on ICU beds occupied (red) is chilling. Green model is with lockdown after and blue is before Christmas. Decisiveness matters! Https://t.co/2IODZGnNJ6 [Tweet]. @DebbyBogaert. https://twitter.com/DebbyBogaert/status/1472845880411758592

    1. Helen Branswell. (2022, January 11). 1. #Omicron’s takeover was stunningly rapid and is now nearly complete, at least in the U.S. The latest “Nowcast” from @CDCgov (which uses recent data to model what’s happen now) suggests most of what is circulating here now is omicron. Https://t.co/6w3e8Ut5NW [Tweet]. @HelenBranswell. https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1480970453313277954

    1. Frenzel, S. B., Junker, N. M., Avanzi, L., Bolatov, A., Haslam, S. A., Häusser, J. A., Kark, R., Meyer, I., Mojzisch, A., Monzani, L., Reicher, S., Samekin, A., Schury, V. A., Steffens, N. K., Sultanova, L., Van Dijk, D., van Zyl, L. E., & Van Dick, R. (2022). A trouble shared is a trouble halved: The role of family identification and identification with humankind in well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. British Journal of Social Psychology, 61(1), 55–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12470

    1. Keeling, M. J., Brooks-Pollock, E., Challen, R. J., Danon, L., Dyson, L., Gog, J. R., Guzman-Rincon, L., Hill, E. M., Pellis, L. M., Read, J. M., & Tildesley, M. (2021). Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England. (p. 2021.12.30.21268307). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307

  3. Dec 2021
    1. Hobbes and Rousseau told their contemporaries things that werestartling, profound and opened new doors of the imagination. Nowtheir ideas are just tired common sense. There’s nothing in them thatjustifies the continued simplification of human affairs. If socialscientists today continue to reduce past generations to simplistic,two-dimensional caricatures, it is not so much to show us anythingoriginal, but just because they feel that’s what social scientists areexpected to do so as to appear ‘scientific’. The actual result is toimpoverish history – and as a consequence, to impoverish our senseof possibility.

      The simplification required to make models and study systems can be a useful tool, but one constantly needs to go back to the actual system to make sure that future predictions and work actually fit the real world system.

      Too often social theorists make assumptions which aren't supported in real life and this can be a painfully dangerous practice, especially when those assumptions are built upon in ways that put those theories out on a proverbial creaking limb.


      This idea is related to the bias that Charles Mathewes points out about how we treat writers as still living or as if they never lived. see: https://hypothes.is/a/VTU2lFvZEeyiJ2tN76i4sA

    2. Now, we should be clear here: social theory always, necessarily,involves a bit of simplification. For instance, almost any humanaction might be said to have a political aspect, an economic aspect,a psychosexual aspect and so forth. Social theory is largely a gameof make-believe in which we pretend, just for the sake of argument,that there’s just one thing going on: essentially, we reduce everythingto a cartoon so as to be able to detect patterns that would beotherwise invisible. As a result, all real progress in social science hasbeen rooted in the courage to say things that are, in the finalanalysis, slightly ridiculous: the work of Karl Marx, Sigmund Freud orClaude Lévi-Strauss being only particularly salient cases in point.One must simplify the world to discover something new about it. Theproblem comes when, long after the discovery has been made,people continue to simplify.

      revisit this... it's an important point, particularly when looking at complex ideas with potentially emergent properties

    1. Art Poon. (2021, November 28). Our first https://filogeneti.ca/CoVizu update with B.1.1.529. As expected, number of mutations is well over molecular clock prediction (~13 diffs). Relatively low numbers of identical genomes implies large number of unsampled infections. We update every two days from GISAID. https://t.co/m8w2CjL1c0 [Tweet]. @art_poon. https://twitter.com/art_poon/status/1465001066194481162

  4. Nov 2021
    1. Jeffrey Barrett. (2021, October 19). Proportion of AY.4.2 (now on http://covid19.sanger.ac.uk) has been steadily increasing in England, which is a pattern that is quite different from other AY lineages. Several of them rose when there was still Alpha to displace, but none has had a consistent advantage vs other Delta. Https://t.co/mD5gQzKxgV [Tweet]. @jcbarret. https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1450408485829718039

    1. Prof. Christina Pagel. (2021, November 3). Good @NatGeo article by @Ecquis on the growing AY.4.2 variant in the UK with lots of great experts explaining it. And a little bit of me too! At its current growth rate, it will probably become dominant in UK by the end of the year. Https://t.co/X9O9kbew2L [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1455899379475361795

    1. I watched Christian from Zettelkasten.de taking notes from a book. He’s a professional note-taker, and it still took him two hours to take four notes in the first video - it does take forever to make good permanent notes.

      An example of someone taking notes in public to model the process. Also an example of the time it takes to make notes.

      Has Dan Allosso (@danallosso) done something along these lines as an example on his YouTube channel?

    1. was common among early modern authorsW and the notion of the merXchant as a model to imitate persisted through changes to new techniquesY

      References to the merchant’s two notebooks as a model for student note taking was common among early modern authors, and the notion of the merchant as a model to imitate persisted through changes to new techniques.

  5. Oct 2021
  6. Sep 2021
    1. Michael Mina on Twitter: “With all the news of vaccines & immunity, did you know measles infections destroy immunity and cause ‘Immune Amnesia’, increasing risk of all other infections Our research in ‘15 & ‘19 discovered this & the abbreviated story is written up nicely here: 1/ https://t.co/t5DKoQljxM” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2021, from https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1435037668027641861

    1. Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J. L., Ullrich, A., Abbott, S., Barbarossa, M. V., Bertsimas, D., Bhatia, S., Bodych, M., Bosse, N. I., Burgard, J. P., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Fuhrmann, J., Funk, S., Gogolewski, K., Gu, Q., … Xu, F. T. (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave. Nature Communications, 12(1), 5173. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0

  7. Aug 2021
    1. (2) David Fisman on Twitter: “Here’s some really simple modeling that hopefully will help provide some insight into why having a large, unvaccinated minority in Ontario is a problem for the population as a whole.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1427940663925092354

  8. Jul 2021
    1. Leah Keating on Twitter: “This work with @DavidJPOS and @gleesonj is now on arXiv (https://t.co/hxjZnCmKcM): ‘A multi-type branching process method for modelling complex contagion on clustered networks’ Here is a quick overview of our paper: (1/6) https://t.co/3jQ2flhk71” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/leahakeating/status/1418150117106978816

  9. Jun 2021
    1. Knock, E. S., Whittles, L. K., Lees, J. A., Perez-Guzman, P. N., Verity, R., FitzJohn, R. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Imai, N., Hinsley, W., Okell, L. C., Rosello, A., Kantas, N., Walters, C. E., Bhatia, S., Watson, O. J., Whittaker, C., Cattarino, L., Boonyasiri, A., Djaafara, B. A., … Baguelin, M. (2021). Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science Translational Medicine, eabg4262. https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262

    1. V Shah, A. S., Gribben, C., Bishop, J., Hanlon, P., Caldwell, D., Wood, R., Reid, M., McMenamin, J., Goldberg, D., Stockton, D., Hutchinson, S., Robertson, C., McKeigue, P. M., Colhoun, H. M., & McAllister, D. A. (2021). Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: An observational study in healthcare workers and their households [Preprint]. Public and Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.21253275

    1. John Burn-Murdoch. (2021, January 7). Doctors & nurses do amazing, stressful work reallocating beds to squeeze Covid patients into, but a) those beds are taken away from other patients who risk losing treatment for other illness & injury, and b) when numbers get high enough, there simply aren’t any more beds or staff [Tweet]. @jburnmurdoch. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200868014297093

  10. May 2021