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  1. Last 7 days
  2. May 2021
    1. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “this is utterly bizarre: How would one conceptually even begin to determine a number by which the model overestimated unmitigated deaths. What is the comparison unmitigated ‘prediction’ to what actually happened supposed to mean?” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved May 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384070393514790918

  3. Apr 2021
    1. Eric Topol on Twitter: “The variants of concern/interest fall into a spectrum of immune evasiveness, w/ B.1.351 being most; B.1.1.7, B.1.429 least. This property pertains to potential for reinfection & some reduction in vaccine efficacy My prelim estimates based on publications/preprints, subject to Δ https://t.co/fQZwBCUEGS” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1380203664317456385

    1. In many real world scenarios a continuous probability distribution is more appropriate as the outcome could be any real number and example of one is explored in the next section.

      Why modeling real word using [[continuous probability distribution]]: it makes sense because the outcome is not finite nor countable - it could be ANY REAL number

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 it could be meaningful only vis a vis certain qualitative constraints: E.g., ‘look, model predicts fewer deaths for unmitigated than observed even with lockdown’ => model underpredicts.... But that’s very much not the scenario here [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384146492609372177

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 so, given that no one can know the ‘unmitigated number’ what they seem to be calculating is in difference deaths given lockdown and model prediction without lockdown and calling that the ‘overestimate’—Which seems truly bizarre [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384147188180082692

  4. Mar 2021
    1. Erik Angner. (2021, February 18). Periodic reminder that in terms of outcomes, Swedish corona policy is thoroughly average in EU comparison – not exactly a model to be emulated by the rest of the world, nor a crime against humanity that should be prosecuted in the Hague. Https://t.co/E1CHBFMs6S [Tweet]. @ErikAngner. https://twitter.com/ErikAngner/status/1362319246378872832

  5. Feb 2021
    1. Carl T. Bergstrom. (2021, January 31). A somewhat technical thread about measuring vaccine efficacy. We’re used to the notion that certain properties of tests for disease depend on prevalence: Positive and negative predictive value do, for example, whereas sensitivity and specificity do not. [Tweet]. @CT_Bergstrom. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1355762090078703621

  6. Jan 2021
    1. Dave. D. M., Friedson. A. I., Matsuzawa. K., McNichols. D.. Sabia. J. J. (2020). .Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment. Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved from: https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13314/

  7. Dec 2020
  8. Nov 2020
  9. Oct 2020
    1. A world where one’s primary identity is found through the social people-farms of existing social networks is a problematic one. Educators and parents are in the privileged position of being able to help create a better future, but we need to start modeling to future generations what that might look like.

      This is exactly what I've been attempting to do with my own website. Naturally I use it selfishly for my own purposes, but I'm also using it to model potential behaviours for friends, family and colleagues.

      I'm sometimes tempted to change the tagline on my website to "A digital canary in the coalmine".

  10. Sep 2020