• This paper is relevant to understanding

  • cumulative cultural evolution
    • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?user=stopresetgo&max=300&expanded=true&any=cumulative+cultural+evolution&exactTagSearch=true
  • social tipping points
    • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?user=stopresetgo&max=300&expanded=true&any=social+tipping+points&exactTagSearch=true

• Learning

• it introduces me to a number of new useful concepts
  • cognitive advantage
  • cultural network analysis
  • more detailed understanding of memetics
  • cultural epidemiology

The five Cs model

The five Cs model of vaccine acceptance is based on five factors that can affect an individual's vaccination behaviour: confidence, constraints, complacency, calculation, and collective responsibility.

ReconfigBehSci [@SciBeh]. (2021, August 6). The pathologies of science Twitter are on full display in this thread featuring a non-expert blasting an epidemiologist for “stealing” an idea (a minor statistical insight) that is part of epidemiological basic understanding [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1423688923348299781

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD. (2021, September 19). We really need follow-up effectiveness data on the J&J one shot vaccine, but not sure what this study tells us. A short epi 101 on case-control studies & why they’re hard to interpret. 🧵/n [Tweet]. @EpiEllie. https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1439587659026993152

Adam Kucharski [@adamjkucharski]. (2021, October 26). Lots of useful international examples in the comments to this post 👇 And more from @cmmid_lshtm here: Https://github.com/cmmid [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1452905501684011008

ReconfigBehSci [@SciBeh]. ‘RT @CAUSALab: Interested in #causalinference? Learn from Top Experts in the Field. Summer Courses Offered at the Harvard T.H. Chan Schoo…’. Tweet. Twitter, 20 December 2021. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1483138177837715464.

Tao, K., Tzou, P. L., Nouhin, J., Gupta, R. K., de Oliveira, T., Kosakovsky Pond, S. L., Fera, D., & Shafer, R. W. (2021). The biological and clinical significance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Nature Reviews Genetics, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41576-021-00408-x

Alessandro Vespignani. (2021, April 14). “Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil”—P.1 may be 1.7–2.4-fold more transmissible—Previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54–79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages https://t.co/aUpL4YOFYo https://t.co/YniaLb9YiF [Tweet]. @alexvespi. https://twitter.com/alexvespi/status/1382370044374511621

ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 10). Now #scibeh2020: Presentation and Q&A with Martha Scherzer, senior risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) Consultant at the World Health Organization https://t.co/Gsr66BRGcJ [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1326148149870809089

Stefan Simanowitz. (2021, March 18). 1/. The PM claims that the govt “stuck to the science like glue” But this is not true At crucial times they ignored the science or concocted pseudo-scientific justifications for their actions & inaction This thread, & the embedded threads, set them out https://t.co/dhXqkSL1bz [Tweet]. @StefSimanowitz. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1372460227619135493

Adam Kucharski. (2020, December 13). I’ve turned down a lot of COVID-related interviews/events this year because topic was outside my main expertise and/or I thought there were others who were better placed to comment. Science communication isn’t just about what you take part in – it’s also about what you decline. [Tweet]. @AdamJKucharski. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1338079300097077250

Kai Kupferschmidt. (2021, March 16). “I’m not here to give you the outcome of any scientific review”, says EMA director Emer Cooke at start of press conference on AstraZeneca vaccine safety. ‘I’m here to explain the steps in the process, what we’re doing, and when you can expect us to come to a conclusion.’ [Tweet]. @kakape. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1371811123197001729

JoHo. (2022, February 18). @PeteUK7 @kprather88 @BallouxFrancois I wrote an article about that tweet. He said he was going to respond. Instead he blocked me and deleted the tweet. Https://t.co/Gna9ubpae4 [Tweet]. @JHowardBrainMD. https://twitter.com/JHowardBrainMD/status/1494491992071360512

Trevor Bedford. (2022, January 10). Given ~680k cases per day, this would in turn suggest 0.8% or 1% of the US being infected with SARS-CoV-2 every day. This would translate to perhaps 5% or 10% of individuals currently infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US. 15/15 [Tweet]. @trvrb. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1480610448563060738

Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦. (2021, November 25). THREAD on the new variant B.1.1.529 summarising what is known from the excellent South African Ministry of Health meeting earlier today TLDR: So much uncertain but what is known is extremely worrying & (in my opinion) we should revise red list immediately. This is why: 1/16 [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1463885539619311616

Health Nerd. (2022, January 14). People drastically underestimate how often an event with an 0.01% chance of happening will happen if you have millions of events [Tweet]. @GidMK. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1482093301113421824

Shematologist, MD. (2021, August 7). Listen to @Schwarzenegger https://t.co/CpYJ5wwjFc [Tweet]. @acweyand. https://twitter.com/acweyand/status/1424080234241040387

ReconfigBehSci. (2022, March 12). @rwjdingwall @mugecevik @RobFreudenthal it makes little sense to numerically compare this pandemic with all of the intervention that occurred directly with past ones where medicine and epidemiology where of a completely different standard to conclude that this one ‘wasn’t bad’. 1/2 [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1502681086819721223

Pak, C. (2022, February 8). Endemic Fatalism and Why It Won’t Resolve COVID-19. Medical Humanities. https://blogs.bmj.com/medical-humanities/?p=3280

Jetelina, K. (2022, January 13). State of Affairs: Pediatrics and Omicron [Substack newsletter]. Your Local Epidemiologist. https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-pediatrics-and-omicron

Patone, M., Mei, X. W., Handunnetthi, L., Dixon, S., Zaccardi, F., Shankar-Hari, M., Watkinson, P., Khunti, K., Harnden, A., Coupland, C. A., Channon, K. M., Mills, N. L., Sheikh, A., & Hippisley-Cox, J. (2021). Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex (p. 2021.12.23.21268276). medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276

Best for Britain. (2022, January 1). Your 2022 reminder that Arnold Schwarzenegger is an absolute gem https://t.co/HmE81i7V0h [Tweet]. @BestForBritain. https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1477209735841689606

A Marm Kilpatrick. (2021, November 24). How do we get broad immunity to SARS-CoV-2 that will protect against future variants? 2 studies (are there more?) suggest that vaccination followed by infection gives broader protection than infection followed by vaccination. @florian_krammer @profshanecrotty @GuptaR_lab https://t.co/rqdf6rE9ej [Tweet]. @DiseaseEcology. https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1463391782742335491

Colosi, E., Bassignana, G., Contreras, D. A., Poirier, C., Boëlle, P.-Y., Cauchemez, S., Yazdanpanah, Y., Lina, B., Fontanet, A., Barrat, A., & Colizza, V. (2021). Screening and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimize school closure (p. 2021.08.15.21261243). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.15.21261243

Mahase, E. (2021). Covid-19: Do vaccines work against omicron—and other questions answered. BMJ, 375, n3062. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n3062

Axios AM. (n.d.). Retrieved December 4, 2021, from https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-60b47701-a3e9-408f-b77a-0a752d789edf.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

nference. (2021, November 27). Here is how B.1.1.529 (#Omicron #B11529) compares to Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta variants. Omicron has highest novel Spike mutations including striking cluster on the “crown” suggesting significant selection pressure & antigenic distinction from prior strains (Credits: Nference) https://t.co/4oZQbjhbG8 [Tweet]. @_nference. https://twitter.com/_nference/status/1464404770098229250

N, P, & R. (2021, November 27). Does omicron pose a risk to the vaccinated? Too early to tell, epidemiologist says. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/11/27/1059539509/too-early-to-tell-whether-omicron-poses-a-threat-to-vaccinated-epidemiologist-sa

Castle, S., & Landler, M. (2021, November 24). A Claim of Herd Immunity Reignites Debate Over U.K. Covid Policy. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/24/world/europe/uk-virus-herd-immunity.html

The Left’s Covid failure. (2021, November 23). UnHerd. https://unherd.com/2021/11/the-lefts-covid-failure/

The Lancet Haematology. (2021, November 12). NEW Viewpoint by @Erik_Klok_MD, @MPaiMD, Menno Huisman & @ProfMakris discussing the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and optimal diagnostic and therapeutic management of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia #VITT #COVID19Vaccine https://thelancet.com/journals/lanhae/article/PIIS2352-3026(21)00306-9/fulltext https://t.co/9PbjaioA2T [Tweet]. @TheLancetHaem. https://twitter.com/TheLancetHaem/status/1459072729332826123

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD. (2021, October 2). Everyone keeps talking about covid becoming endemic, but as I listen to the conversation, it’s becoming more & more clear to me that very few of you know what “endemic” means. So here’s a thread on how pandemics end. Https://t.co/uuYinUcynb [Tweet]. @EpiEllie. https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1444088804961304581

Cauchemez, S., & Bosetti, P. (2021). A reconstruction of early cryptic COVID spread. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02989-3

Pouwels, K. B., Pritchard, E., Matthews, P. C., Stoesser, N., Eyre, D. W., Vihta, K.-D., House, T., Hay, J., Bell, J. I., Newton, J. N., Farrar, J., Crook, D., Cook, D., Rourke, E., Studley, R., Peto, T. E. A., Diamond, I., & Walker, A. S. (2021). Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK. Nature Medicine, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01548-7

Writer, L. M. H. S. (2021, March 25). Harvard experts discuss the history of social distancing. Harvard Gazette. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/03/harvard-experts-discuss-the-history-of-social-distancing/

ReconfigBehSci. (2021, November 2). interestingly the Singapore Health Minister also mentions “boosting through mild infections”—A concept that is currently generating much furore in the UK in the wake of the release of the JCVI minutes on child vaxx decisions 1/n [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1455445587910922240

UK’s daily Covid deaths hit SEVEN-MONTH high of 223 while cases jump 13% in a week to 43,738 | Daily Mail Online. (n.d.). Retrieved October 25, 2021, from https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10108203/UKs-daily-Covid-deaths-hit-SEVEN-MONTH-high-223-cases-jump-13-week-43-738.html

These Are The Main Covid Symptoms – But The Government Website Says Otherwise. (2021, September 23). HuffPost UK. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/covid-symptoms-delta-variant-government_uk_614c5ffce4b098483a72a22b

Rono, E. K. (2021). Covid-19 genomic analysis reveals clusters of emerging sublineages within the delta variant [Preprint]. Genomics. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.08.463334

Covid booster shots important to stop infection, finds English study | Coronavirus | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved October 14, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/covid-booster-shots-important-to-stop-infection-finds-english-study

The Death Rate of Covid-19 in Developing Countries | by Gideon M-K; Health Nerd | Oct, 2021 | Elemental. (n.d.). Retrieved October 7, 2021, from https://elemental.medium.com/the-death-rate-of-covid-19-in-developing-countries-cc17a55c73cd

Understanding COVID-19 Registration Form. (n.d.). Google Docs. Retrieved March 31, 2021, from https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScrC4krKVHcSm_Wi2VcXcGHa4F8l3cilL2xhbB62etcK4sy4w/viewform?usp=embed_facebook

‘Calculated risk’: Ardern gambles as New Zealand Covid restrictions eased | New Zealand | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved September 23, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/22/calculated-risk-ardern-gambles-as-new-zealand-covid-restrictions-eased

Are we heading for another winter lockdown? - UnHerd. (n.d.). Retrieved September 14, 2021, from https://unherd.com/2021/09/are-we-heading-for-another-winter-lockdown/

Dumpster diving in the VAERS database to find more COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis in children | Science-Based Medicine. (n.d.). Retrieved September 14, 2021, from https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-doctors-fall-into-the-same-trap-as-antivaxxers/

Kraemer, M. U. G., Hill, V., Ruis, C., Dellicour, S., Bajaj, S., McCrone, J. T., Baele, G., Parag, K. V., Battle, A. L., Gutierrez, B., Jackson, B., Colquhoun, R., O’Toole, Á., Klein, B., Vespignani, A., COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium‡, Volz, E., Faria, N. R., Aanensen, D. M., … Pybus, O. G. (2021). Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science, 373(6557), 889–895. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113

Inside America’s Covid-reporting breakdown—POLITICO. (n.d.). Retrieved August 23, 2021, from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/inside-americas-covid-data-gap-502565

Kai Kupferschmidt on Twitter: “One of the most important things I was looking for in reporting on #SARSCoV2 evolution was a way of making sense of all the virus variants, putting them in some framework. And one of the most useful things I found for that is this antigenic map. It’s worth explaining a bit: Https://t.co/miO8Kh9w9e” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 22, 2021, from https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1428650961652916230?s=20

We shouldn’t be giving Covid boosters while millions wait for a first dose | Andrew Pollard and Seth Berkley | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved August 17, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/13/covid-boosters-dose-vaccine

Apple Podcasts. “‎The Ezra Klein Show: The Good and Bad News About the Delta Variant on Apple Podcasts.” Accessed August 13, 2021. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-good-and-bad-news-about-the-delta-variant/id1548604447?i=1000531189768.

Cavanaugh, Alyson M. “Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination — Kentucky, May–June 2021.” MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 70 (2021). https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7032e1.

Crook, H., Raza, S., Nowell, J., Young, M., & Edison, P. (2021). Long covid—Mechanisms, risk factors, and management. BMJ, n1648. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1648

What Is “Natural Immunity”? And Why Should You Get the Vaccine Even if You Already Had COVID? - The Bulwark. (n.d.). Retrieved August 11, 2021, from https://www.thebulwark.com/what-is-natural-immunity-and-why-should-you-get-the-vaccine-even-if-you-already-had-covid/

Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA on Twitter: “1/ PROFOUNDLY DISTURBING clips from a town hall with Arkansas @AsaHutchinson. Q: What’s in the vaccine? A: Here are full ingredient lists: Pfizer: Https://t.co/ZgpaqcIlzg Moderna: Https://t.co/j5uf4uErLB J&J: https://t.co/qsjEO8s4gg https://t.co/OR9sSANR7x” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 11, 2021, from https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1423002451460907009

Callaway, E. (2021). Remember Beta? New data reveal variant’s deadly powers. Nature, d41586-021-02177–3. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02177-3

Fisman, D. N., & Tuite, A. R. (2021). Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada. MedRxiv, 2021.07.05.21260050. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050

Fallis, B. (n.d.). Opinion: A vaccine-only strategy won’t prevent a fourth wave of COVID-19 - The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 7 August 2021, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-vaccine-only-strategy-wont-prevent-a-fourth-wave-of-covid-19/

intuitive EPI. (n.d.). intuitive EPI - Table 2 Fallacy (Part 1). Retrieved August 5, 2021, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufwRaWQmxDE

Why are fully vaccinated people testing positive for Covid? | Financial Times. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e749ff

Thorough and well written article

If Covid-19 is a seasonal virus, why is it spreading during the summer? | Francois Balloux | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/16/covid-19-seasonal-virus-spreading-during-summer-pandemic

Covid-19: Hong Kong study shows BioNTech vaccines create 10 times more antibodies than Sinovac | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP. (n.d.). Retrieved July 18, 2021, from https://hongkongfp.com/2021/07/16/covid-19-hong-kong-study-shows-biontech-vaccines-create-10-times-more-antibodies-than-sinovac/

Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in Pregnancy. (2021, July 12). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-665725/v1

Toor, J., Echeverria-Londono, S., Li, X., Abbas, K., Carter, E. D., Clapham, H. E., Clark, A., de Villiers, M. J., Eilertson, K., Ferrari, M., Gamkrelidze, I., Hallett, T. B., Hinsley, W. R., Hogan, D., Huber, J. H., Jackson, M. L., Jean, K., Jit, M., Karachaliou, A., … Gaythorpe, K. A. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. ELife, 10, e67635. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635

Herrera-Diestra, J. L., Tildesley, M., Shea, K., & Ferrari, M. (2021). Network structure and disease risk for an endemic infectious disease. ArXiv:2107.06186 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2107.06186

What the World Health Organization really said about mixing COVID-19 vaccines | CBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved July 15, 2021, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-mixing-and-matching-who-1.6101047?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

The takeaway: Global COVID-19 deaths over the past year and a half are 3X more than the annual deaths due to traffic accidents and roughly equal to the population of the city of Los Angeles or the country of Georgia.

The claim: Covid-19 deaths are approximately equal to the population of Los Angeles or the nation of Georgia and are three times the global traffic accident death.

The evidence:

The global number of deaths due to COVID as reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on July 8, 2021 is 4,002,209 (1). The estimated population of the city of Los Angeles in 2019 was 3,979,576 (2). The estimated population of Los Angeles county in 2019 was 10,039,107 (2). The population of the nation of Georgia is 3,979,549 (3). Per WHO data from 2018, 1.35 million are killed annually by traffic accidents around the world (4).

Global COVID deaths are approximately equal to the population of the city of Los Angeles or nation of Georgia. Globally, COVID deaths are 3X the number of global traffic accident deaths.

Sources:

1) https://covid19.who.int/

2) https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/losangelescountycalifornia,losangelescitycalifornia,CA/BZA010219

3) https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/georgia-population

4) https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html

Mallapaty, S. (2021). Will COVID become a disease of the young? Nature, d41586-021-01862–01867. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01862-7

Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates—POLITICO. (n.d.). Retrieved July 8, 2021, from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/08/delta-coronavirus-variant-widespread-498787?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Nogrady, B. (2021). Mounting evidence suggests Sputnik COVID vaccine is safe and effective. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01813-2

(2021). Retrieved 2 July 2021, from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/988458/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w20_v2.pdf

California Science Center. ...“...If Vaccines Are Safe and Effective?” Accessed July 2, 2021. https://californiasciencecenter.org//funlab/ever-wonder/2021-05-26/if-vaccines-are-safe-and-effective.

Buckee, C., Noor, A., & Sattenspiel, L. (2021). Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03694-x

Chadi, M.-A., & Mousannif, H. (2021). Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Support Tool For Epidemic Control [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tcr8s

Larson, H. J., & Broniatowski, D. A. (2021). Volatility of vaccine confidence. Science, 371(6536), 1289–1289. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6488

Knock, E. S., Whittles, L. K., Lees, J. A., Perez-Guzman, P. N., Verity, R., FitzJohn, R. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Imai, N., Hinsley, W., Okell, L. C., Rosello, A., Kantas, N., Walters, C. E., Bhatia, S., Watson, O. J., Whittaker, C., Cattarino, L., Boonyasiri, A., Djaafara, B. A., … Baguelin, M. (2021). Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science Translational Medicine, eabg4262. https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262