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  1. Last 7 days
  2. Feb 2024
  3. Jan 2024
    1. Rational optimism regarding our future, then, is only possible to the extent we can find prior evolutionary steps which are plausibly more improbable than they look. Conversely, without such findings we must consider the possibility that we have yet to pass through a substantial part of the Great Filter. If so, then our prospects are bleak, but knowing this fact may at least help us improve our chances. For example, if our prospects are likely bleak we should search out and take especially seriously any plausible scenarios, such as nuclear war or ecological collapse, which might lead to our future inability to explode across the universe. A long list of such scenarios for concern can be found in [Leslie 96]. Our main data point, the Great Silence, would be telling us that at least one of these scenarios is much more probable than it otherwise looks. With such a warning in hand, we might, for example, take extra care to protect our ecosystems, perhaps even at substantial expense to our economic growth rate. We might be even especially cautious regarding the possibility of world-destroying physics experiments. And we might place a much higher priority on projects like Biosphere 2, which may allow some part of humanity to survive a great disaster.

      Especially note:

      With such a warning in hand, we might, for example, take extra care to protect our ecosystems, perhaps even at substantial expense to our economic growth rate. We might be even especially cautious regarding the possibility of world-destroying physics experiments. And we might place a much higher priority on projects like Biosphere 2, which may allow some part of humanity to survive a great disaster.

    1. Im französischen Departement Pas-de-Calais ist in 4 Stunden so viel Regen gefallen wie sonst in einem Monat. Im November entsprachen die Niederschläge dort in drei Wochen denen eines halben Jahres. Sie sind deutlich höher als bei der letzten sogenannten Jahrhundertflut. Der Bürgermeister von St. Omer fordert im Interview Anpassungsmaßnahmen, die der für immer verändern Situation gerecht werden. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/inondations-dans-le-pas-de-calais-cest-limpact-du-dereglement-climatique-a-nos-latitudes-20240104_E3KJ5D77QJEILP62VCMQSYAPCA/

    1. Kommentar zu den Überschwemmungen in Niedersachsen. Inzwischen fordert der seit 13 Jahren amtierende Ministerpräsident Weil, etwas gegen die steigenden Emissionen zu tun, die er als eine Ursache der Katastrophe identifiziert. Der Bundeskanzler habe in seinen verschwommenen Statements keine Verbindung zur globalen Erhitzung hergestellt. https://taz.de/Wetteraenderung-nach-Hochwasser/!5981384/

      • for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

      • NOTE

        • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp
      • SUMMARY

        • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

        • Positive tipping points

          • not as well studied as negative tipping points
          • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
            • politics
            • psychology
          • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change
      • SPEAKER PANEL

        • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
        • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
        • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report
      • Global Carbon Budget report summary

      • 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

        • graph
        • comment
          • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.
      • 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

      • three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

      • 00:21:55: CDR

        • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
        • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
      • 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

        • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
        • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
        • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2
      • Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

      • adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

        • 194 billion / year
        • 366 billion / year by 2030
      • climate change increases transboundary issues
        • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
        • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
        • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

      -00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

      • 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

      • 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

        • Greenland Ice Sheet
        • West Antarctic
        • Permafrost
        • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
        • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
          • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate
      • 00:35:39

        • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.
      • 00:36:00

        • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

      -00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

      • 00:37:30

        • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.
      • 00:38:10

        • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
        • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
        • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal
    1. four different types of initiators of new community projectsbased in neighbourhoods:local government,governmental organisations,non-governmental organisations or activists andexisting communities.
      • for: types of initiators of community projects, SONEC - initiators of community projects, question - frameworks for community projects, suggestion - collaboration with My Climate Risk, suggestion - collaboration with U of Hawaii, suggestion - collaboration with ICICLE, suggestion - collaboration with earth commission, suggestion - collaboration with DEAL

      • question: frameworks for community projects

        • If our interest is to attempt to create a global collective action campaign to address our existential polycrisis, which includes the climate crisis, then how do we mobilize at the community level in a meaningful way?

        • I suggest that this must be a cosmolocal effort. Why? Knowledge sharing across all the communities will accelerate the transition of any participating local community.

        • This means that we cannot rely on citizens living in small communities to construct an effective coordination framework for rapid de-escalation of the polycrisis. The capacity does not exist within small communities to build such a complex system. The system can be more effectively built before the collective action campaign is started by a virtual community of experts and ready for trial with pilot communities.
        • To meet this enormous challenge, it cannot be done in an adhoc way. At this point in time, many people in many communities all around the globe know of the existential crisis we face, but if we look at the annual carbon emissions, none of the existing community efforts has made a difference in their continuing escalation.
        • The knowledge required to synchronize millions of communities to have a unified wartime-scale collective action mobilization to reach decarbonization goals that the mainstream approach has not even made a dent in will be a complex problem.
        • In other words, what is proposed is a partnership.
        • Since we are faced with global commons problems that pose existential threats if not mitigated in 5 to 8 years, the scope of the problem is enormous.
        • Super wicked problems require unprecedented levels of collaboration at every level.
        • The downscaling of global planetary boundaries and doughnut economics seems the most logical way to think global, act local.
        • Building such a collaboration system requires expert knowledge. Once built, however, it requires testing in pilot communities. This is where a partnership can take place

        • 2024, Jan. 1 Adder

          • My Climate Risk Regional Hubs
            • time 29:46 of https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fevent%2Flater-is-too-late-tipping-the-balance-from-negative-to-positive&group=world
            • https://www.wcrp-climate.org/mcr-hubs
            • Suggestion:
              • SRG has long entertained a collaborative open science project for grassroots polycrisis / climate crisis education - to measure and validate latest climate departure dates
              • This would make climate change far more salient to the average person because of the observable trends in disruption of local economic activity connected to the local ecology due to climate impacts
              • This would be a synergistic project between SRG, LCE, SoNeC, My Climate Risk hubs, ICICLE and U of Hawaii
              • Our community frameworks need to go BEYOND simply adaptation though, which is what "My Climate Risk" focuses exclusively on. We need to also engage equally in climate mitigation.
        • reference
        • I coedited this volume on examples of existing cosmolocal projects
  4. Dec 2023
  5. Nov 2023
    1. typically men more than women when they gain weight tend to store fat in their tongue and so 00:01:55 their tongues will swell you can see that really nicely on MRI actually because fat shows up as basically white tissue on MRI the other thing is that men's Airways are larger and so because of the law of Laplace which we don't 00:02:07 have time to get into larger Airways are more collapsible and so they're easier to close off with pressure placed on the outside so that's why men are typically more at risk for obstructive sleep apnea 00:02:18 but women are also at risk for sleep apnea especially after menopause
      • for: sleep apnea - enlarged tongue in overweight men, sleep apnea - post menopause in women, sleep apnea - increased risk - overweight men, sleep apnea - increased risk - post menopause women

      • increased risk: sleep apnea

        • men: overweight
        • women - post menopause
    1. The earlier a serious Manhattan-like project to develop nanotechnology is initiated, the longer it will take to complete, because the earlier you start, the lower the foundation from which you begin. The actual project will then run for longer, and that will then mean more time for preparation: serious preparation only starts when the project starts, and the sooner the project starts, the longer it will take, so the longer the preparation time will be. And that suggests that we should push as hard as we can to get this product launched immediately, to maximize time for preparation.

      for sure?

    1. Aufgrund der Dürren und anderer Extrem-Ereignisse wird die Trinkwasser-Versorgung in vielen Communities im Einzugsgebiet des Mississippi prekär. Der Süden Louisianas wird von eindringendem Salzwasser bedroht, Dabei sind die Folgen der schweren Hurricanes der vergangenen Jahre noch nicht überwunden. Immer mehr Menschen wollen die Gegend verlassen. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/us/louisiana-saltwater-climate.html

    1. the Center for the 01:00:29 Study of existential risk dedicated the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to human extinction or civilizational collapse and the interesting thing is that modernity is 01:00:41 not on their list either in fact it's not on the list of any of the agencies that now are dedicated to do this work
      • for: Center for the Study of Existential Risk - excludes modernity

      • Comment

        • Center for the Study of Existential Risk still assumes a modern framework to solve the polycrisis
  6. Oct 2023
    1. Die Extremwetter-Ereignisse dieses Jahres entsprechen den Vorhersagen der Klimawissenschaft. Der Guardian hat dazu zahlreichende Forschende befragt und viele Statements in einem multimedialen Artikel zusammengestellt. Alle Befragten stimmen darin überein, dass die Verbrennung fossiler Brennstoffe sofort beendet werden muss, um eine weitere Verschlimmerung zu stoppen. Festgestellt wird auch, dass die Verwundbarkeit vieler Communities bisher unterschätzt worden ist. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/crazy-off-the-charts-records-has-humanity-finally-broken-the-climate

  7. Sep 2023
  8. Aug 2023
    1. Eine Welle extremer Hitze hat in Frankreich dazu geführt, dass in 49 Départments die Alarmstufe „orange“ und in mehreren die Alarmstufe „rot“ ausgerufen wurde. An vielen Orten wurden Rekordtemperaturen gemessen. In einigen Gebieten herrschte schon vorher extreme Trockenheit. Hitze und Trockenheit gefährden u.a. die Kühlwasserversorgung der französischen Atomkraftwerke.

      https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/en-france-une-canicule-intense-aux-lourdes-consequences-20230821_ZQ3B3DPABRAQ3OLAB6DGSNLG5Q/

    1. Auf der Insel Maui in Hawaii haben Feuer einen großen Teil der alten Stadt Lahaina zerstört und über 50 Menschenleben gefordert (Update 15. 8.: mindestens 93 Tote). Eine lang anhaltende Trockenheit hat das Ausbrechen der Feuer an verschiedenen Teilen der Insel erleichtert, Stürme in der Folge des Orkans Dora haben sie verbreitet. In ihrem Ausmaß wird die Katastrophe mit dem Camp Fire verglichen dass 2018 die kalifornische Stadt Paradise zerstörte. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/10/hawaii-fire-kills-people-lahaina-town-maui

    1. Auf Z. Hausfather gestützt, wird festgestellt, dass sich die Temperaturerhöhung des Nordatlantik nicht durch die Ursachen wie weniger Saharastaub und Schiffs-Aerosole allein erklären lässt, sondern sie auf den anthropogenen Klimawandel zurückzuführen ist. Infografiken:<br /> - Temperaturanomalie Ozeanoberflächen, - Durchschnittstemperatur der Ozeanoberfläche, - Prognosen Temperaturentwicklung der Ozeane vs. beobachteten Werten - Energieaufnahme der Ozeane.

      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/03/climate/ocean-temperatures-heat-earth.html

    1. Eine Schlammlawine hat in der nordwestchinesischen Stadt Xi'an 21 Menschen getötet. Sie geht auf Regenfälle in der Folge des Taifuns und späteren tropischen Sturms Khanun zurück, der auch in anderen Teilen Chinas zu schweren Überschwemmungen führte. Vor Khanun hatten der Taifun Doksuri und Regengebiete in Verbindung mit den HItzewellen des Sommers Überflutungen verursacht. https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2023/aug/13/death-toll-from-mudslide-in-xian-region-of-china-rises

    1. Auf Hawaii haben Feuer viele Häuser zerstört und sechs Menschenleben gefordert. Sie sind an verschiedenen Stellen der Insel Maui ausgebrochen und übertrafen nach dem Eindruck der Betroffenen alles bisher bekannte. Eine lang anhaltende Trockenheit hat das Ausbrechen der Feuer erleichtert, Stürme in der Folge des Orkans Dora haben sie verbreitet. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/09/hawaii-fires-maui-hurricane

    1. Eine Winter-Hitzewelle hat in den Anden zu Temperaturen bis zu 37° geführt. Der vergangene Dienstag war in Chile vermutlich der wärmste Wintertag seit 72 Jahren. Befürchtet wird, dass sich dadurch Dürren intensivieren. Die ersten sechs Monate des Jahres waren in ganz Südamerika ungewöhnlich warm und an vielen Stellen niederschlagsarm. Die Hitze wird sich im Lauf des Jahres voraussichtlich unter El Niño-Einwirkung verstärken. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/06/winter-heatwave-andes-sign-things-come-scientists-warn

    1. In Frankreich war der Monat Juli 0,8 Grad wärmer als im Durchschnitt. Es handelt es sich um den 18 überdurchschnittlich warmen Monat infolge. Nach wie vor ist Frankreich vor allem von Trockenheit betroffen. für mehr als 30 Departements wurde eine Krisensituation ausgerufen. Der Hauptgrund dafür ist, dass ich im vergangenen trockenen Winter das Grundwasser nicht ausreichend regenerieren konnte. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/malgre-la-fraicheur-qui-sannonce-la-secheresse-continue-de-setendre-20230731_6NOOMQZZ5VAKJO57QUKV73YRQE/

    1. Wegen „noch nie da gewesener Hitze“ wurde im Iran für Mittwoch und Donnerstag dieser Woche Feiertage ausgerufen, an denen das gesamte öffentliche Leben ruht. Die Folgen der Klimakrise werden im Iran durch Raubbau an den Süßwasser Ressourcen und ein überlastetes Stromnetz verschlimmert https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/world/middleeast/iran-heat-shutdown.html

  9. Jul 2023
    1. Im Meer bei Florida wurde eine Oberflächentemperatur von 38,43°C gemessen – möglicherweise ein neuer globaler Rekord. Der Bericht des Guardian geht auf andere marine Hitzewellen und Studien über ihre Zunahme ein. Nach Daten der amerikanischen Wetterbehörde NOAA wurden in diesem Jahr schon im April, Mai und Juni Rekorde bei der Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane gebrochen. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/25/florida-ocean-temperatures-hot-tub-extreme-weather