1,092 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
  2. Apr 2023
    1. Eine n neue Studie untersucht, am welchen stehen der Erde ein Risiko für extreme Hitzewellen versteht, ohne dass es bisher dazu gekommen ist. Bei diesen Gebieten, zu denen sich Deutschland und die Benelux-Staaten gehören, besteht die Gefahr, dass sie sich unzureichend auf Extremereignisse vorbereiten. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/climate/extreme-heat-waves.html

    1. If you told me you were building a next generation nuclear power plant, but there was no way to get accurate readings on whether the reactor core was going to blow up, I’d say you shouldn’t build it. Is A.I. like that power plant? I’m not sure.

      This is the weird part of these articles … he has just made a cast-iron argument for regulation and then says "I'm not sure"!!

      That first sentence alone is enough for the case. Why? Because he doesn't need to think for sure that AI is like that power plant ... he only needs to think there is a (even small) probability that AI is like that power plant. If he thinks that it could be even a bit like that power plant then we shouldn't build it. And, finally, in saying "I'm not sure" he has already acknowledged that there is some probability that AI is like the power plant (otherwise he would say: AI is definitely safe).

      Strictly, this is combining the existence of the risk with the "ruin" aspect of this risk: one nuclear power blowing up is terrible but would not wipe out the whole human race (and all other species). A "bad" AI quite easily could (malevolent by our standards or simply misdirected).

      All you need in these arguments is a simple admission of some probability of ruin. And almost everyone seems to agree on that.

      Then it is a slam dunk to regulate strongly and immediately.

    1. A large amount of failure to panic sufficiently, seems to me to stem from a lack of appreciation for the incredible potential lethality of this thing that Earthlings as a culture have not named.)

      👍

    1. So what does a conscious universe have to do with AI and existential risk? It all comes back to whether our primary orientation is around quantity, or around quality. An understanding of reality that recognises consciousness as fundamental views the quality of your experience as equal to, or greater than, what can be quantified.Orienting toward quality, toward the experience of being alive, can radically change how we build technology, how we approach complex problems, and how we treat one another.

      Key finding Paraphrase - So what does a conscious universe have to do with AI and existential risk? - It all comes back to whether our primary orientation is around - quantity, or around - quality. - An understanding of reality - that recognises consciousness as fundamental - views the quality of your experience as - equal to, - or greater than, - what can be quantified.

      • Orienting toward quality,
        • toward the experience of being alive,
      • can radically change
        • how we build technology,
        • how we approach complex problems,
        • and how we treat one another.

      Quote - metaphysics of quality - would open the door for ways of knowing made secondary by physicalism

      Author - Robert Persig - Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance // - When we elevate the quality of each our experience - we elevate the life of each individual - and recognize each individual life as sacred - we each matter - The measurable is also the limited - whilst the immeasurable and directly felt is the infinite - Our finite world that all technology is built upon - is itself built on the raw material of the infinite

      //

    2. If the metaphysical foundations of our society tell us we have no soul, how on earth are we going to imbue soul into AI? Four hundred years after Descartes and Hobbs, our scientific methods and cultural stories are still heavily influenced by their ideas.

      Key observation - If the metaphysical foundations of our society tell us we have no soul, - how are we going to imbue soul into AI? - Four hundred years after Descartes and Hobbs, - our scientific methods and cultural stories are still heavily influenced by their ideas.

    3. Suppose we have an AI whose only goal is to make as many paper clips as possible. The AI will realize quickly that it would be much better if there were no humans because humans might decide to switch it off. Because if humans do so, there would be fewer paper clips. Also, human bodies contain a lot of atoms that could be made into paper clips. The future that the AI would be trying to gear towards would be one in which there were a lot of paper clips but no humans.

      Quote - AI Gedanken - AI risk - The Paperclip Maximizer

    4. We might call on a halt to research, or ask for coordination around ethics, but it’s a tall order. It just takes one actor not to play (to not turn off their metaphorical fish filter), and everyone else is forced into the multi-polar trap.

      AI is a multi-polar trap

    5. Title Reality Eats Culture For Breakfast: AI, Existential Risk and Ethical Tech Why calls for ethical technology are missing something crucial Author Alexander Beiner

      Summary - Beiner unpacks the existential risk posed by AI - reflecting on recent calls by tech and AI thought leaders - to stop AI research and hold a moratorium.

      • Beiner unpacks the risk from a philosophical perspective

        • that gets right to the deepest cultural assumptions that subsume modernity,
        • ideas that are deeply acculturated into the citizens of modernity.
      • He argues convincingly that

        • the quandry we are in requires this level of re-assessment
          • of what it means to be human,
          • and that a change in our fundamental cultural story is needed to derisk AI.
  3. Mar 2023
  4. Feb 2023
  5. Dec 2022
    1. When public health emergencies break out, social bots are often seen as the disseminator of misleading information and the instigator of public sentiment (Broniatowski et al., 2018; Shi et al., 2020). Given this research status, this study attempts to explore how social bots influence information diffusion and emotional contagion in social networks.
    1. the risk that I see is the more people and the more countries and governments that recognize the logic of this, the sooner there's 00:36:07 a phase shift that actually mortally wounds the super organism, and then the complexity and financial supports that we have for all of our nations kind of unravel before we're able to do the important work.

      !- transition : risk factor - financial system unravels prematurely and capital for transition becomes scarce

  6. Nov 2022
  7. Oct 2022
    1. In the interest of reducing warranty claims (which are much more expensive than that incremental manufacturing cost) carmakers are sizing the whole unit to reliably accommodate the worst case draw (driver turns everything on at the same time, at idle).
  8. Sep 2022
    1. David Brady and colleagues have shown this to be empirically the case across29 rich democracies. The authors focused on four major risks of poverty—loweducation, single motherhood, young adults heading a household, and unem-ployment. They found that although the prevalence of these risks in the UnitedStates is actually below the average in other countries, the rate of poverty inthe United States is the highest. The reason is that “the penalties for risks inthe United States are the highest of the 29 countries. An individual with allfour risks has an extremely heightened probability of being poor in the UnitedStates.”

      How did we get to this point and how do we move away from it?

      What does David Brady's research indicate about the other countries that makes them more resilient to poverty despite these problems?

      Is it a feature of institutional racism that causes this problem?

    1. Svensk vård och skola har blivit en guldgruva för riskkapitalister. Ett av de tydligaste exemplen heter Anders Hultin. Han blev känd för en vidare krets efter att Aftonbladets ledarsida uppmärksammat att han taktlöst lagt ut en bild på ett sjuhundrakronors vin på Facebook och texten: "Because I'm worth it". Då hade han som vd för skolkoncernen John Bauer precis ansökt om konkurs. 14 500 elever förlorade sina skolor och deras lärare hade blivit arbetslösa.Men Anders Hultin gick det, som han själv konstaterade, ingen nöd på. För en billig peng kunde han köpa ut ett antal skolor ur det egna konkursboet och drev dem vidare i det nystartade bolaget Fria Läroverken.
  9. Aug 2022
    1. Gilbert, P. B., Montefiori, D. C., McDermott, A., Fong, Y., Benkeser, D. C., Deng, W., Zhou, H., Houchens, C. R., Martins, K., Jayashankar, L., Castellino, F., Flach, B., Lin, B. C., O’Connell, S., McDanal, C., Eaton, A., Sarzotti-Kelsoe, M., Lu, Y., Yu, C., … Teams, U. S. G. (USG)/CoVPN B. (2021). Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial. MedRxiv, 2021.08.09.21261290. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261290

    1. Anthony Costello. (2022, February 24). The risks of cognitive symptoms lasting at least 12 MONTHS were much higher in the infected group. 4.8x higher for fatigue, 3.2x for brain fog, 5.3x for poor memory, and an incredible 51x for altered taste and smell. We need data on children, but it could easily be similar. (17) https://t.co/JC1qYyW2Xc [Tweet]. @globalhlthtwit. https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1496957266016313348

    1. (e.g., the ability to quickly onboard new collateral types and change risk and auction parameters).

      This calls for a dynamic gov process relative to the market conditions. Gov-->clear and open in stable markets Gov-->versatile and swift in fast-paced changes

  10. Jun 2022
  11. bafybeiccxkde65wq2iwuydltwmfwv733h5btvyrzqujyrt5wcfjpg4ihf4.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeiccxkde65wq2iwuydltwmfwv733h5btvyrzqujyrt5wcfjpg4ihf4.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. Efforts to incorporate, even in a limited way, some of these issues and introduce moresevere damage functions and different assumptions on technology or distribution generatemarkedly different conclusions about the optimum trajectories.

      Including these catastrophic risks dramatically alters the conclusions and optimum trajectories.

    2. the world has been much morefocused than the IAMs on a different set of issues, the risks of catastrophic consequences.These potentially catastrophic risks are in large measure assumed away in the IAMs.

      Assumptions of catastrophic risks have not been included in the IAMs.

  12. May 2022
    1. At every step of the process we target a specific risk: the risk of not shipping on time. .... Improving your discovery process should come after regaining your ability to ship.

      You can have the best strategy in the world, but if you can't act on it, what good does it do?

    Tags

    Annotators

  13. Apr 2022
    1. Kai Kupferschmidt. (2021, December 1). @DirkBrockmann But these kinds of models do help put into context what it means when certain countries do or do not find the the variant. You can find a full explanation and a break-down of import risk in Europe by airport (and the people who did the work) here: Https://covid-19-mobility.org/reports/importrisk_omicron/ https://t.co/JXsYdmTnNP [Tweet]. @kakape. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1466109304423993348

    1. ReconfigBehSci [@i]. (2021, November 27). @STWorg @PhilippMSchmid @CorneliaBetsch this clip got me too- for non-German speakers. She is asked whether she is ‘concerned’. Her response: Of course I’m concerned, I’m double vexed, I’m waiting for my booster vaccination, my husband died of Covid, I was in hospital, now I’m avoiding my grand children [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464660287739596802

    1. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘@STWorg @PhilippMSchmid @CorneliaBetsch and every now and then we have to watch a clip like this to be reminded what all of this is really about. This pain and suffering is happening in one of the richest countries in the world at a time in the pandemic when we know exactly what to do to avoid it’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 22 April 2022, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1464662622440144896

    1. Covid One Year Ago. (2021, March 12). 12 March 2020 “The public could be putting themselves more at risk from contracting coronavirus by wearing face masks.” “Jenny Harries, England’s deputy chief medical officer, said the masks could ‘actually trap the virus’ and cause the person wearing it to breathe it in” https://t.co/ar5kOOxih3 [Tweet]. @YearCovid. https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1370307577888698369

    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD. (2021, May 4). The imminent FDA authorization of a vaccine for 12-15 year olds is great news, and adolescents should be able to access vaccine. But in the short term, we must also grapple with the ethics of vaccinating adolescents ahead of high-risk adults in other countries. [Tweet]. @nataliexdean. https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1389381649314598914

    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD. (2021, May 4). Another framing for this tweet: Wow, the US will soon be able to expand vaccine access to 12-15 year olds. Meanwhile, there are countries where healthcare workers treating COVID patients can’t access vaccines. What more can the US government do to support the global community? [Tweet]. @nataliexdean. https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1389568668548349952

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, November 18). reports of Covid “parties” and resultant deaths from Austria. This presumably is a potential reason for why policy might chose to not treat recovery as equivalent to vaccination where restrictions based on status are in place (e.g., 2G,3G in Germany and Austria) https://t.co/xH3btENi4X [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1461013914792169478

  14. Mar 2022
    1. Eric Topol. (2022, February 28). A multimodal #AI study of ~54 million blood cells from Covid patients @YaleMedicine for predicting mortality risk highlights protective T cell role (not TH17), poor outcomes of granulocytes, monocytes, and has 83% accuracy https://nature.com/articles/s41587-021-01186-x @NatureBiotech @KrishnaswamyLab https://t.co/V32Kq0Q5ez [Tweet]. @EricTopol. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1498373229097799680

    1. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘@STWorg @ProfColinDavis @rpancost @chrisdc77 @syrpis this is the most in depth treatment of the impact of equalities law on pandemic policy that I’ve been able to find- it would seem to underscore that there is a legal need for impact assessments that ask (some) of these questions https://t.co/auiApVC0TW’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 22 March 2022, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1485927221449613314

  15. Feb 2022
    1. Meaghan Kall. (2022, February 17). BA.2 risk assessment New this week is upgrading Immune Evasion—Amber 🟨 from low to moderate that BA.2 is antigentically different to BA.1 Unsurprising given the mutation profile, with BA.2 slightly more immune evasive than BA.1 on neuts studies https://t.co/n6DWtiRaNH [Tweet]. @kallmemeg. https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1494100170195312646