for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - to - climate departure map - of major cities around the world - 2013

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

from - Nature publication - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/

for - question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure?

question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure? - Does the term "functional integrity" imply autonomy from climate feedbacks? Obviously, climate feedback plays a huge role in determining biodiversity health - In 2013, Mora et al. found that climate departure, the year in which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds will occur everywhere on the planet, regardless of an aggressive RCP pathway being taken. In this study, climate departure was found to take place (relative to 2013) - 37.5 years in the future under RCP45, or - 22.5 years in the future under RCP85 - It would seem that the biodiversity boundaries should take into consideration climate departure as species extinction and ecological system disruption is projected to occur, regardless of whether RCP45 or RCP85 is adopted. - Currently, we are still on a Business-As-Usual trajectory, but since 2013, scientific research has moved the danger threshold even lower so climate departure dates are likely even sooner than those calculated in the 2013 Mora paper

to - Mora, C., Frazier, A., Longman, R. et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540 - Researchgate copy - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability&group=world

for - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al. - from - climate departure paper

from - The projected timeline of climate departure from recent variability - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Die Dürren der letzten 20 Jahre waren schlimmer als in den 2100 Jahren davor. Bericht über eine klimahistorische Studie, die von den Isotopen in den Jahresringen von Eichen ausgeht.

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00698-0

The authors claim that variability isn't just noise, but helps us understand the reasoning behind developmental behaviors, which can shed light on the causes of developmental differences in children.

Bedder, R., Vaghi, M., Dolan, R., & Rutledge, R. (2020). Risk taking for potential losses but not gains increases with time of day. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3qdnx

Breznau, N., Rinke, E. M., Wuttke, A., Adem, M., Adriaans, J., Alvarez-Benjumea, A., Andersen, H. K., Auer, D., Azevedo, F., Bahnsen, O., Balzer, D., Bauer, G., Bauer, P. C., Baumann, M., Baute, S., Benoit, V., Bernauer, J., Berning, C., Berthold, A., … Nguyen, H. H. V. (2021). Observing Many Researchers using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Data Analysis. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/cd5j9

Martin, G. P., Sperrin, M., & Sotgiu, G. (2020). Performance of Prediction Models for Covid-19: The Caudine Forks of the External Validation. European Respiratory Journal. https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.03728-2020

Was the order random or consistent? If consistent, in which order, Antigen then PCR or vice versa? And does this introduce variability?

Lenzo, Vittorio, Maria Catena Quattropani, Alessandro Musetti, Corrado Zenesini, Maria Francesca Freda, Daniela Lemmo, Elena Vegni, et al. ‘Resilience Contributes to Low Emotional Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak among the General Population in Italy’. Preprint. PsyArXiv, 1 August 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/af8u4.

Akbarpour, M., Cook, C., Marzuoli, A., Mongey, S., Nagaraj, A., Saccarola, M., Tebaldi, P., Vasserman, S., & Yang, H. (2020). Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response (Working Paper No. 27374; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27374

Monte, F. (2020). Mobility Zones (Working Paper No. 27236; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27236

Petersen, E., Koopmans, M., Go, U., Hamer, D. H., Petrosillo, N., Castelli, F., Storgaard, M., Khalili, S. A., & Simonsen, L. (2020). Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30484-9

Miller, J. G., Chahal, R., Kirshenbaum, J. S., Ho, T. C., Gifuni, A. J., & Gotlib, I. (2020). Heart Rate Variability Moderates the Link Between COVID-19 Stress and Emotional Problems in Adolescents: Evidence for Differential Susceptibility [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mp7wt

Crawford, J., Butler-Henderson, K., Rudolph, J., Glowatz, M., & Al, E. (2020). COVID-19: 20 Countries’ Higher Education Intra-Period Digital Pedagogy Responses. Journal of Applied Teaching and Learning (JALT), 3(1). https://doi.org/10.37074/jalt.2020.3.1.7

Pollán, M., Pérez-Gómez, B., Pastor-Barriuso, R., Oteo, J., Hernán, M. A., Pérez-Olmeda, M., Sanmartín, J. L., Fernández-García, A., Cruz, I., Larrea, N. F. de, Molina, M., Rodríguez-Cabrera, F., Martín, M., Merino-Amador, P., Paniagua, J. L., Muñoz-Montalvo, J. F., Blanco, F., Yotti, R., Blanco, F., … Villa, A. V. de la. (2020). Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): A nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31483-5

Tomohiro, I. (2020, May 8). Consensus among group members’ shared leadership ratings polarizes group performance. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/psjeu

The reactors were not maintained under the same conditions - 1 had backpulsing and the other was subjected to relaxation