- Last 7 days
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Malani, A., Soman, S., Asher, S., Novosad, P., Imbert, C., Tandel, V., Agarwal, A., Alomar, A., Sarker, A., Shah, D., Shen, D., Gruber, J., Sachdeva, S., Kaiser, D., & Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2020). Adaptive Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in India: Local, Gradual, and Trigger-based Exit Paths from Lockdown (Working Paper No. 27532; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27532
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Ziedan, E., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020). Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization (Working Paper No. 27621; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27621
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Ding, W., Levine, R., Lin, C., & Xie, W. (2020). Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19 (Working Paper No. 27393; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27393
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Though important, social distancing could be reduced to one metre instead of 2m
Take away: As with most things in nature, there are always exceptions – transmission occurring at greater distances than 3 ft and evidence of aerosolization have been reported.
Discussion: In scientific terms, this virus is still very new so the data supporting an optimal physical distance to prevent transmission remains scarce. In the absence of data, public health agencies have used what they understand about this virus and similar viruses to infer a “best” answer. Public health agencies try to simplify the recommendation to a single answer, but the reality is much more complex.
According to reports the WHO bases their recommendation for 1 meter (~3 ft) distancing off of an understanding that SARS-CoV-2 behaves like similar respiratory viruses that are primarily transmitted via larger droplets (as opposed to smaller aerosols). Assuming most spread is via droplets, the WHO reportedly follows the results of a 1934 study indicating most respiratory droplets fall to the ground within 3 feet.
However, as with most things in nature, there are always exceptions – transmission occurring at greater distances than 3 ft and evidence of aerosolization have been reported.
The evidence basis for the CDCs guidance for 6 feet of separation is less clear, but probably reflects lower risk tolerance, or greater weight to evidence of aerosolization or wider droplet spread.
Even with further study, there may never be a clear answer for optimal physical distancing. This is because, (1) the area of high risk for transmission is probably dependent on the specific conditions of the interaction (e.g. loud talking, windy environment), and (2) the “optimal” distance is based on risk tolerance. There is no single distance between individuals where risk of transmission drops off precipitously to zero.
All evidence indicates that greater distances are safer but, for example, consider how restrictive a physical distancing recommendation of >50 ft would be. In the end, because we can’t control how far others stand away from us, we ask governments to consider these tradeoffs and deliver a “best” answer to guide their citizenry.
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Dave, D. M., Friedson, A. I., Matsuzawa, K., McNichols, D., & Sabia, J. J. (2020). Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment (Working Paper No. 27322; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27322
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Lin, Z., & Meissner, C. M. (2020). Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19 (Working Paper No. 27099; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27099
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Chatam House (2020) We may have a vaccine in the next 12 months...And already we are seeing the rise of an anti-vaccination movement. Retrieved from: https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1289219157968293889
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Glover, A., Heathcote, J., Krueger, D., & Ríos-Rull, J.-V. (2020). Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27046; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27046
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Akbarpour, M., Cook, C., Marzuoli, A., Mongey, S., Nagaraj, A., Saccarola, M., Tebaldi, P., Vasserman, S., & Yang, H. (2020). Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response (Working Paper No. 27374; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27374
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Dave, D. M., Friedson, A. I., Matsuzawa, K., & Sabia, J. J. (2020). When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time (Working Paper No. 27091; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27091
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Gupta, S., Montenovo, L., Nguyen, T. D., Rojas, F. L., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes (Working Paper No. 27280; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27280
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u/nick_chater (2020) Behavioural Policy Challenge: when does compulsion help? reddit. Retrieved from: https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciAsk/comments/hzci8g/behavioural_policy_challenge_when_does_compulsion/
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Kaptchuk, G., Goldstein, D. G., Hargittai, E., Hofman, J., & Redmiles, E. M. (2020). How good is good enough for COVID19 apps? The influence of benefits, accuracy, and privacy on willingness to adopt. ArXiv:2005.04343 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04343
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Arellano, C., Bai, Y., & Mihalache, G. P. (2020). Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets (Working Paper No. 27275; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27275
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Barlow, Pepita, Rachel Loopstra, Valerie Tarasuk, and Aaron Reeves. “Liberal Trade Policy and Food Insecurity across the Income Distribution: An Observational Analysis in 132 Countries, 2014–17.” The Lancet Global Health 8, no. 8 (August 1, 2020): e1090–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30263-1.
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Rodela, T. T., Tasnim, S., Mazumder, H., Faizah, F., Sultana, A., & Hossain, M. M. (2020). Economic Impacts of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Developing Countries [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wygpk
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Lewis, D. (2020). Mounting evidence suggests coronavirus is airborne—But health advice has not caught up. Nature, 583(7817), 510–513. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02058-1
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La, V.-P., Pham, T.-H., Ho, T. M., Hoàng, N. M., Linh, N. P. K., Vuong, T.-T., Nguyen, H.-K. T., Tran, T., Van Quy, K., Ho, T. M., & Vuong, Q.-H. (2020). Policy response, social media and science journalism for the sustainability of the public health system amid the COVID-19 outbreak: The Vietnam lessons [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/cfw8x
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Metcalf, C. J. E., Morris, D. H., & Park, S. W. (2020). Mathematical models to guide pandemic response. Science, 369(6502), 368–369. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd1668
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A Path to Reproductive Justice: Research, Practice and Policies. (2020, July 15). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YYQ_bKQij0&feature=emb_logo
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docs.google.com docs.google.com
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COVID-19 Social Science Tracker - Google Sheets
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Racism: The Ultimate Underlying Condition. (2020, June 18). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cozo8lj_RTA&feature=emb_logo
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APHA. (n.d.) Advancing Racial Equity Webinar Series. https://www.apha.org/racial-equity
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Motta, M., & Jansa, J. (2020). Concern About COVID-19 & Support for Universal Vote by Mail. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yatjc
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Heap, S. H., Koop, C., Matakos, K., Unan, A., & Weber, N. S. (2020). COVID-19 and people’s health-wealth preferences: Information effects and policy implications [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/mz67j
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WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. (2020, June 23). Webinar: COVID-19 pandemic – an opportunity or barrier to health as a bridge for peace?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNurBUky8s0
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Walawalkar, A. (2020, July 11). Boris Johnson urged to clarify message on wearing face masks in shops. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/11/boris-johnson-urged-to-clarify-message-on-wearing-face-masks-in-shops
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COVID-19 and Implications for Europe. (2020, May 17). FSI Stanford. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrbiBp--BuU
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Pavela Banai, I., Banai, B., & Mikloušić, I. (2020, July 14). Beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories predict lower level of compliance with the preventive measures both directly and indirectly by lowering trust in government medical officials. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/yevq7
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Méndez, P. F. (2020). Blue uncertainty: Warding off systemic risks in the Anthropocene – Lessons from COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z2br5
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Hossain, M. M., McKyer, E. L. J., & Ma, P. (2020). Applications of artificial intelligence technologies on mental health research during COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/w6c9b
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Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S. A., Kotcher, J., Bergquist, P., Ballew, M. T., Goldberg, M. H., Gustafson, A., & Wang, X. (2020). Climate change in the American Mind: April 2020 [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8439q
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Breznau, N. (2020). The Welfare State and Risk Perceptions: The Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and Public Concern in 70 Countries. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/96fd2
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Benvenisti, E. (2020). The WHO – Destined to Fail?: Political Cooperation and the COVID-19 Pandemic (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3638948). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3638948
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Mole, B. (2020, June 24). White House ordered NIH to cancel coronavirus research funding, Fauci says. Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/white-house-ordered-nih-to-cancel-coronavirus-research-funding-fauci-says/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Okabe-Miyamoto, K., Folk, D. P., Lyubomirsky, S., & Dunn, E. W. (2020). Changes in Social Connection During COVID-19 Social Distancing: It’s Not (Household) Size That Matters, It’s Who You’re With [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zdq6y
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Brik, A. B. (2020). COVID 19 FAMILY LIFE STUDY [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/gcqhp
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Cameron, E. E., Joyce, K., Delaquis, C., Reynolds, K., Protudjer, J., & Roos, L. E. (2020). Maternal Psychological Distress & Mental Health Services Use during the COVID-19 Pandemic [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/a53zb
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royalsociety.org royalsociety.org
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DELVE group publishes evidence paper on the use of face masks in tackling Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic | Royal Society. (2020 May 04). https://royalsociety.org/news/2020/05/delve-group-publishes-evidence-paper-on-use-of-face-masks/
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behavioralscientist.org behavioralscientist.org
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Gauri, V. (2020 April 30). Behavioral Public Policy Faces a Crisis. Behavioral Scientist. https://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-public-policy-faces-a-crisis/
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econpapers.repec.org econpapers.repec.org
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Campos-Mercade, Pol, Armando Meier, Florian Schneider, and Erik Wengström. “Prosociality Predicts Health Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Department of Economics - University of Zurich, May 2020. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zur:econwp:346.
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Swiss National COVID-19 Sceince Task Force. Policy Briefs. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2020, from https://ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-briefs
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Phillips, T. (2020, June 14). “The country is adrift”: Echoes of Spanish flu as Brazil’s Covid-19 catastrophe deepens. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/brazil-coronavirus-spanish-flu
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Abu-Akel, A., Spitz, A., & West, R. (2020). THE FAUCI EFFECT: PUBLIC HEALTH MESSAGING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/naxf3
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Angulo, M. T., Castaños, F., Velasco-Hernandez, J. X., & Moreno, J. A. (2020). A simple criterion to design optimal nonpharmaceutical interventions for epidemic outbreaks. MedRxiv, 2020.05.19.20107268. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20107268
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dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443 dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443
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Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Dorigatti, I., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Green, W., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Okell, L., Van Elsland, S., … Ghani, A. (2020). Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. In 20 [Report]. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482
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Madsen, J. K. (2020). Trustworthiness of Doctors from Public Health Campaigns [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zhw6j
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Sjåstad, H., Teigen, K. H., & Van Bavel, J. J. (2020, June 5). The best-case heuristic in risk prediction: Hopes and fears in a global health pandemic (COVID-19). https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/pcj4f
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Washington, M. D. S. K. in, & London, S. B. in. (2020, June 3). Surgisphere: Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine
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About us. (n.d.). Retrieved May 5, 2020, from /wps/wcm/connect/Site/CovidCrisisLab/Home/About+us
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Arenas, A., Cota, W., Gomez-Gardenes, J., Gomez, S., Granell, C., Matamalas, J. T., Soriano-Panos, D., & Steinegger, B. (2020). Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20054320
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Cutler, D. M., Nikpay, S., & Huckman, R. S. (2020). The Business of Medicine in the Era of COVID-19. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.7242
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Hargreaves, J., Davey, C., Hargreaves, J., Davey, C., Auerbach, J., Blanchard, J., Bond, V., Bonell, C., Burgess, R., Busza, J., Colbourn, T., Cowan, F., Doyle, A., Hakim, J., Hensen, B., Hosseinipour, M., Lin, L., Johnson, S., Masuka, N., … Yekeye, R. (2020). Three lessons for the COVID-19 response from pandemic HIV. The Lancet HIV, S2352301820301107. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(20)30110-7
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Ford, J. (2020, April 15). The battle at the heart of British science over coronavirus | Free to read. https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
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Mancini, A. D. (2020, May 28). Heterogeneous Mental Health Consequences of COVID-19: Costs and Benefits. https://doi.org/10.1037/tra0000894
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That’s why the escape hatch is so appealing. Self-insured companies can tailor their health benefits to meet the needs of their workers. They don’t have to pay for services their employees neither need nor want. And self-insured plans pay their own medical costs, without having to subsidize the health-care costs of other groups.
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The administration and its allies fear that the more people gravitate toward the successful, free-market self-insurance approach, the worse their government-engineered health “reform” will look. We’re already seeing the beginning of this trend.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Stieger, S., Lewetz, D., & Swami, V. (2020). Psychological Well-Being Under Conditions of Lockdown: An Experience Sampling Study in Austria During the COVID-19 Pandemic [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qjhfp
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Schwalbe, N., & Wahl, B. (2020). Artificial intelligence and the future of global health. The Lancet, 395(10236), 1579–1586. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30226-9
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Johnson, N.F., Velásquez, N., Restrepo, N.J. et al. The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views. Nature (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2281-1
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Jordana, J., & Triviño-Salazar, J. C. (2020). Where are the ECDC and the EU-wide responses in the COVID-19 pandemic? The Lancet, S0140673620311326. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31132-6
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Vespignani, A., Tian, H., Dye, C. et al. Modelling COVID-19. Nat Rev Phys (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-020-0178-4
Tags
- computational modeling
- pharmaceutical
- antibody testing
- containment measures
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- epidemiology
- public health
- transmission dynamics
- prediction
- war time
- mathematics
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URL
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www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
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Bento, A. I., Nguyen, T., Wing, C., Lozano-Rojas, F., Ahn, Y.-Y., & Simon, K. (2020). Evidence from internet search data shows information-seeking responses to news of local COVID-19 cases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 202005335. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2005335117
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