how do we sort of cultivate an 00:40:56 intuition for complex systems right for those second third nth order effects

My son is roughly a year old, which means he is starting to walk. He still can’t make it across the room, but he can take a few steps. He has a peculiar habit of eating bananas while standing. This usually means he holds a large chunk of banana in one hand while using the other to hold on to the table. Sometimes, overcome by banana-eating euphoria, he will let go of the table he’s using for stability, and he’ll just stand. Then he notices what he has done, and he promptly falls down. It is reckless to attribute complex thoughts to a developing child, but it seems like he is able to stand until he remembers that he can’t. It’s like his conscious thoughts are preventing him from walking around the room.

When subjects are instructed togenerate a random sequence of hypotheticaltosses of a fair coin

If application code lives in app, then doesn't that imply that things in lib (such as PhoneNumberFormatter) are not application code? I think that's one of the reasons why your recommendation of app/lib felt right to me -- my classes feel like they belong in app somewhere.

what we call “intuition” is based on the unconscious application of this very mental faculty.

The reason for this has been discussed earlier in the context of the minimum information principle: you should always try to make sure your brain works in the exactly same way at each repetition.

The more experience you gain, the more you willbe able to rely on your intuition to tell you what to do next. Instead oftaking you “from intuition to professional writing strategies”, as thetitle of a typical study guide promises, it is here all about becoming aprofessional by acquiring the skills and experience to judgesituations correctly and intuitively so you can chuck misleading studyguides for good. Real experts, Flyvbjerg writes unambiguously, don’tmake plans (Flyvbjerg 2001, 19).

I guess it is more of a feeling whether to use them or not.

With experience you would get to have an idea about how knowledgeable the customer was just by talking to them for a few seconds, but you have to be careful not to assume things.

When you’re implementing a bad plan yourself, instead of having a mentor bail you out by fixing it, a few really useful things happen:You learn many more details about why it was a bad idea. If someone else tells you your plan is bad, they’ll probably list the top two or three reasons. By actually following through, you’ll also get to learn reasons 4–1,217.You spend about 100x more time thinking about how you’ll avoid ever making that type of mistake again, i.e., digesting what you’ve learned and integrating it into your overall decision-making.By watching my mistakes and successes play out well or badly over the course of months, I was able to build much more detailed, precise models about what does and doesn’t matter for long-term codebase health. Eventually, that let me make architectural decisions with much more conviction.

We wondered - do voters carefully consider the political issues and then objectively study each candidate’s platform, or do they mainly go with from-the-gut “tribal” feelings? 

It seems kind of intuitively obvious that if you put something—whether it’s a scarf or a mask—in front of your nose and mouth, that will filter out some of these viruses that are floating around out there,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University. The only problem: that’s not effective against respiratory illnesses like the flu and COVID-19. If it were, “the CDC would have recommended it years ago,” he says. “It doesn’t, because it makes science-based recommendations.”

proud of their ignorance of the facts, who are proud of thinking that their desires or their “gut feel” somehow takes priority over rational thought

the

Discursive, or Intuitive; discourse Is oftest yours, the latter most is ours,

The Bible says, “Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen.“1 This means that no matter how deeply we may seem to be buried in the distortions of a personal, three-dimensional, finite frame of mind, the faith that we find everpresently abiding within us is our everpresent “connection” with the Actuality of our Being as It is really going on. In other words, it is our Actual experience of Substance, inviolably “held in trust” for us, you might say, so long as we indulge in attempting to experience the Reality of our Being from a partial view. This is why it is “the evidence of things not seen.” It is the evidence of Reality, present and undistorted, in spite of the distortions inherent in the partial view. Faith, intuition, and desire constitute three aspects of our everpresent conscious experience of Reality while we are involved in the deception of existing as a finite mentality.

Essential to being able to break the partial view, is the shifting of the “point of awareness” from being within that which is observed to that subjective Place wherein It is that which is what is observed—the all-inclusive, infinite experience of being as Conscious Being. It is only the intuitive perception of our Infinity as Conscious Being—prior to our “expansion”—which gives us the guts to expand. That intuition gives us the perspective to see that we are expanding into what we already Are, and that we are not expanding into the unknown at all! True, we may not know the details of our Infinity, but it’s the details that we cannot see until the Universal Nature of our Self becomes an accepted Fact and basis from which to be. This is so essential to understand, and you are beginning to see this. Excellent!

You are sitting, right now, as the Omnipresence of infinite Good, actively, Omnipotently unfolding and fulfilling Itself without exception. It is the intuitive perception—it is the desire, faith, and intuition of there being something to wake up into—which must remain the focal point of your conscious experience, regardless of the illusion of being boxed in. Then you must desire to wake up. Do not waste any energy in attempting to overcome any facet of the dream, since the way things appear is imaginary. It, therefore, cannot be dealt with in any way other than waking up!

RAJ: Good morning, Paul. You are beginning to grasp that there truly is a more infinite and accurate view of what you are experiencing, and yet you feel you have no basis upon which to wake up to that larger, more accurate perception. You recognize the demand for something, and I have told you that the three-dimensional situation will not be relieved until you wake up. Thus, you find yourself in a bind from which you see no escape. The fact is that Being has no dead ends. It is only the finite view which would make Infinity appear to be blocked off. You are sitting, right now, as the Omnipresence of infinite Good, actively, Omnipotently unfolding and fulfilling Itself without exception. It is the intuitive perception—it is the desire, faith, and intuition of there being something to wake up into—which must remain the focal point of your conscious experience, regardless of the illusion of being boxed in. Then you must desire to wake up. Do not waste any energy in attempting to overcome any facet of the dream, since the way things appear is imaginary. It, therefore, cannot be dealt with in any way other than waking up!

So, that portion of one’s Self, which he has disowned by claiming he is finite, becomes an intuitive perception of potential of unattained good, or unattained life, but nevertheless attainable through some path or other. So, while that one identifies himself three-dimensionally, he is constantly reminded, goaded, pushed by his Actual Oneness and Universality to give up his finite view as fact. This whole process has nothing to do with evil, error (as power) the dark forces, evil powers, or the devil. You could say it is purely mechanical, with no values associated with it.

Now, it does no good to have a lifeline attached to us while trekking around in the foreboding territory of the three-dimensional frame of reference if we do not use it to guide ourselves back into the Fourth-dimensional view, wherein perspective returns and there is no foreboding. In other words, it serves no purpose to stand in the finite view and have faith, have intuition, and have desires. From within that frame of reference, the distortion applies equally to those three everpresent perceptions of Reality. It causes them to be experienced as arising out of the absence of that which we have faith in, intuition about, and desires for. One can sit and rot in the illusion of “hell” while tenderly fondling and embracing his intuitions, faith, and desires. Your faith in what is Real, your intuitions about It, and your desire to experience It must be seen for what they are, and utilized, no matter how infinitesimal they seem to be from the standpoint of the partial view!

The Bible says, “Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen.“1 This means that no matter how deeply we may seem to be buried in the distortions of a personal, three-dimensional, finite frame of mind, the faith that we find everpresently abiding within us is our everpresent “connection” with the Actuality of our Being as It is really going on. In other words, it is our Actual experience of Substance, inviolably “held in trust” for us, you might say, so long as we indulge in attempting to experience the Reality of our Being from a partial view. This is why it is “the evidence of things not seen.” It is the evidence of Reality, present and undistorted, in spite of the distortions inherent in the partial view. Faith, intuition, and desire constitute three aspects of our everpresent conscious experience of Reality while we are involved in the deception of existing as a finite mentality.

Mental structuring is what we call the internal organization of conscious and unconscious mental images, associations, or concepts (or whatever it is that is organized within the human mind) that somehow manages to provide the human with understanding and the basis for such as judgment, intuition, inference, and meaningful action with respect to his environment.

There exists no word for these intuitions; when man sees them he grows dumb, or else he speaks only in forbidden metaphors and in unheard-of combinations of concepts.

it will now be guided by intuitions rather than by concepts.