- Sep 2023
in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
- for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
- In a normal distribution,
- from over here you have the denialists and
- over here you have the environmental activists.
- But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
- And the majority are actually
- we know this from opinion polls
- very supportive of science.
- They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
- They want climate action.
- It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
- You know, many, many things to be worried about.
- But that's the question:
- how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
- I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
- scare them and
- fight with the denialists.
- I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
- In a normal distribution,
- author: Johan Rockstrom
date: Sept., 2023
- in other words
- the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action
- for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
- title: The Great Disruption has Begun
- author: Paul Gilding
- date: Sept 3, 2023
- source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun
- good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
- He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
- Coins a good meme
- Everything, everywhere, all at once
- He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
- finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride
- It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.
- hothouse earth
- deep transformation
- extreme weather
- climate chaos
- planetary tipping points
- tipping points
- climate change education
- climate disruption
- system change
- new meme
- Aug 2023
these are the seven main thrusts of the series
- for: societal design, designing societies, societal architecture, transforming society, whole system change, SSO, social superorganism, John Boik
The seven main ideas for societal design: 1. societal transformation - is necessary to avoid catastrophe 2. the specific type of transformation is science-based transformation based on entirely new systems - de novo design - 3. A practical way to implement the transformation in the real world - it must be economical, and doable within the short time window for system change before us. - Considering a time period of 50 years for total change, with some types of change at a much higher priority than others. - The change would be exponential so starting out slower, and accelerating - Those communities that are the first to participate would make the most rapid improvements. 4. Promoting a worldview of society as a social superorganism, a cognitive organism, and its societal systems as a cognitive architecture. 5. Knowing the intrinsic purpose of a society - each subsystem must be explained in terms of the overall intrinsic purpose. 6. The reason for transformation - Transformation that improves cognition reduces the uncertainty that our society's intrinsic purpose is fulfilled. 7. Forming a partnership between the global science community and all the local communities of the world.
- seven main points
- societal design - evolutionary approach
- systems thinking - societal design
- cognitive organism
- social superorganism
- transforming society
- whole system change
- societal design
- designing society - evolutionary approach
Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- July 31, 2023
- Sonia Graham
for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola
- Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
- Sirkku Juhola
- Tatiana Filatova
- Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
- Reinhard Mechler
- Jurgen Scheffran
- Pia-Johanna Schweizer
- Sept 21, 2022
- Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
- Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
- With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
- While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
- overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
- Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
- This paper brings together three strands of literature -
- social tipping points,
- climate adaptation limits and
- systemic risks,
- which so far have been separate.
- Furthermore, we discuss
- methods and
- used to illustrate the dynamics of
- social and
- adaptation tipping points
- in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
- We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
- which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
- Jul 2022
evers and leverage points fortransformative changeOur assessment—the most comprehensive car-ried out to date, including the nexus analysisof scenarios and an expert input process withliterature reviews—revealed clearly that re-versing nature’s ongoing decline (100) whilealso addressing inequality will require trans-formative change, namely a fundamental,system-wide reorganization across techno-logical, economic, and social factors, makingsustainability the norm rather than the altru-istic exception.
Transformative change is required across all aspects of society. With such short time windows, leverage points become critical.
- Mar 2021
Dehning, J., Zierenberg, J., Spitzner, F. P., Wibral, M., Neto, J. P., Wilczek, M., & Priesemann, V. (2020). Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9789