- Sep 2024
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ainowinstitute.org ainowinstitute.org
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This trend has borne out historically: before the deep learning era, the amount of compute used by AI models doubled in about 21.3 months; since deep learning as a paradigm took hold around 2010, the amount of compute used by models started doubling in only 5.7 months12. Since 2015 however, trends in compute growth have split into two: the amount of compute used in large-scale models has been doubling in roughly 9.9 months, while the amount of compute used in regular-scale models has been doubling in only about 5.7 months
If something is doubling faster in small models, how long before they Ive take the larger models? I can’t do the maths in my head
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- Jun 2024
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nobody's really pricing this in
for - progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project!
progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project! - Civlization's journey has to create more and more powerful tools for human beings to use - but this tool is different because it can act autonomously - It can solve problems that will dwarf our individual or even group ability to solve - Philosophically, the problem / solution paradigm becomes a central question because, - As presented in Deep Humanity praxis, - humans have never stopped producing progress traps as shadow sides of technology because - the reductionist problem solving approach always reaches conclusions based on finite amount of knowledge of the relationships of any one particular area of focus - in contrast to the infinite, fractal relationships found at every scale of nature - Supercomputing can never bridge the gap between finite and infinite - A superintelligent artifact with that autonomy of pattern recognition may recognize a pattern in which humans are not efficient and in fact, greater efficiency gains can be had by eliminating us
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- Feb 2024
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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american mathematician alfred bartlett 00:01:12 in his long teaching career repeatedly said the greatest weakness of the human race is its inability to understand the exponential function
for - quote - Alfred Bartlett - exponential function
quote - Alfred Bartlett - The greatest weakness of the human race is its inability to understand the exponential function
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- Aug 2023
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www.uspto.gov www.uspto.gov
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- for: progress, progress trap, exponential growth - knowledge, exponential growth - technology, technology - exponential growth, US patents, patents, intellectual property -description: GIF graph of US patents from the start in 1825 to 2021
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- Jun 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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the change is not we're not talking 20 40. we're talking 2025 2026
- comment
- a scary thought that our world will be radically transformed
- not in 20 to 40 years
- but in 2 or 3 years!
- a scary thought that our world will be radically transformed
- comment
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- Mar 2023
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
- Sep 2022
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chem.libretexts.org chem.libretexts.org
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The frequency factor determines the maximum rate of collisions, is a function of particle size, concentration and the rate of diffusion. The steric factor accounts for orientation, in that not all collisions have the correct orientation to result in a reaction, (see video 14.6.214.6.2\PageIndex{2}). The rule of thumb is that the more symmetric a molecule the larger the steric factor (a value of 1 means there is no effect, and the pre-exponential is determined by the collision frequency) and the more complicated a molecule, the smaller the steric factor (which is less than one), because only a fraction of the collisions have the correct orientation.
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Trevor Bedford. (2022, January 28). Omicron viruses can be divided into two major groups, referred to as PANGO lineages BA.1 and BA.2 or @nextstrain clades 21K and 21L. The vast majority of globally sequenced Omicron have been 21K (~630k) compared a small minority of 21L (~18k), but 21L is gaining ground. 1/15 [Tweet]. @trvrb. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1487105396879679488
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- Oct 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Greg Jericho. (2021, August 29). The next fortnight could get pretty damn ugly. Here’s hoping the we are near the peak https://t.co/HW1JY4xy8c [Tweet]. @GrogsGamut. https://twitter.com/GrogsGamut/status/1431789682380066818
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- Sep 2021
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Ciccione, L., Sablé-Meyer, M., & Dehaene, S. (2021). Analyzing the misperception of exponential growth in graphs. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dah3x
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abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
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News, A. B. C. (n.d.). Nearly 252,000 children in US test positive for COVID-19 amid back-to-school season. ABC News. Retrieved 13 September 2021, from https://abcnews.go.com/Health/252000-children-us-test-positive-covid-19-amid/story?id=79881315
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www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
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Since about 70% of water delivered from the Colorado River goes to growing crops, not to people in cities, the next step will likely be to demand large-scale reductions for farmers and ranchers across millions of acres of land, forcing wrenching choices about which crops to grow and for whom — an omen that many of America’s food-generating regions might ultimately have to shift someplace else as the climate warms.
Deep Concept: The US Government, in the 1960's/70's provided a crystal ball glimpse into the future by defining climate change (man-made global warming) as a national security concern. Various reports warned of "exponential" growth (population) and related man-made factors (technology etc.) that would contribute to climate change and specifically discussed the possibility of irreconcilable damage to "finite" natural resources.
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- Jul 2021
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asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
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Indonesia overtakes India to become Asia’s COVID epicenter. (n.d.). Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 19 July 2021, from https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Indonesia-overtakes-India-to-become-Asia-s-COVID-epicenter
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Meaghan Kall 🏳️🌈 on Twitter: “The updated cumulative growth curves showing continued exponential growth of B.1.617.2.. Https://t.co/3fmEwU7cP3” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1397981951907217411
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- Jun 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, June 8). RT @TWenseleers: Across whole of England, 76% [74-78%] of all newly diagnosed infections now B.1.617.2. We see familiar pattern of combinat… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1402633076396552193
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twitter.com twitter.com
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John Burn-Murdoch. (2021, January 7). Doctors & nurses do amazing, stressful work reallocating beds to squeeze Covid patients into, but a) those beds are taken away from other patients who risk losing treatment for other illness & injury, and b) when numbers get high enough, there simply aren’t any more beds or staff [Tweet]. @jburnmurdoch. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200868014297093
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- Oct 2020
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13664/.
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- Aug 2020
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13257/
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- Jun 2020
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Zimmer, C. (2020, June 1). How You Should Read Coronavirus Studies, or Any Science Paper. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/article/how-to-read-a-science-study-coronavirus.html
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- May 2020
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Mbopi-Keou, F.-X., Pondi, J.-E., & Sosso, M. A. (2020). COVID-19 in Cameroon: A crucial equation to resolve. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30373-X
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- Dec 2019
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www.pointsoftware.ch www.pointsoftware.ch
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So if you create one backup per night, for example with a cronjob, then this retention policy gives you 512 days of retention. This is useful but this can require to much disk space, that is why we have included a non-linear distribution policy. In short, we keep only the oldest backup in the range 257-512, and also in the range 129-256, and so on. This exponential distribution in time of the backups retains more backups in the short term and less in the long term; it keeps only 10 or 11 backups but spans a retention of 257-512 days.
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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the exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate.
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