As part of this investigation, we ran more ablations (removing lines from the system prompt to understand the impact of each line) using a broader set of evaluations. One of these evaluations showed a 3% drop for both Opus 4.6 and 4.7.
大多数人认为微小的系统提示变更只会带来微不足道的影响，但作者展示了一个看似微不足道的提示变更（限制字数）却导致了3%的性能下降。这挑战了'小变更小影响'的直觉认知，揭示了AI系统中微小变化可能带来的非线性影响。
Unfortunately, the attacker got further access through their enumeration.
大多数人认为环境变量即使不敏感也难以被利用，但作者指出攻击者通过枚举这些变量获得了进一步访问权限，这挑战了'非敏感数据不值得保护'的常见观念，暗示即使是看似无害的数据也可能成为攻击链的一部分。
A healthcare LLM might be highly accurate for queries in English, but perform abominably when those same questions are presented in Spanish.
这个例子揭示了AI系统性能的文化和语言敏感性，这是一个令人惊讶但重要的观察。它表明AI系统的'准确性'可能高度依赖于特定语境，这挑战了我们对AI普遍适用性的假设。这种差异可能强化现有的数字鸿沟，并要求开发更具文化敏感性的AI评估框架。
If we took one task out of our task suite or added another task to our task suite, potentially instead of measuring this Claude Opus 4.6 time horizon of, I think, 14 and a half hours, we'd be measuring it at something like eight or 20 hours.
增减一道题，测量结果从 8 小时变成 20 小时——这意味着整个 METR 时间地平线排行榜，本质上是由极少数「关键任务」撑起来的脆弱测量。当一个评测体系对单点数据如此敏感，它的「精确数字」就不应该被当作事实引用，而应该被当作噪声分布的一次采样。而目前，媒体和公众正是在拿这些数字做严肃决策。
Aortic dissection typically presents acutely with sudden, severe tearing chest or back pain, often described as lancinating in quality. [5-6] Approximately 50% of patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm may progress to dissection without timely intervention. [5] In contrast, thoracic aortic aneurysm is usually asymptomatic and discovered incidentally during physical examination or imaging for other indications. [5]
Climate sensitivity is the most basic issue. Juel Charnie. The Charnie sensitivity refers to the case in which ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are fixed. Charie's estimate had a huge uncertainty from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees
for - definition - Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) - The global average surface temperature increase when CO2 levels double from pre-industrial levels, allowing all climate feedbacks (like ice melt, water vapor, clouds) to fully manifest. - climate crisis - Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity - huge range - 1.5 to 4.5 deg Celsius - IPCC estimates 3 deg C
Feedback-Mechanismen im Kohlenstoffzyklus könnten dafür sorgen, dass die globale Erhitzung in den kommenden Jahrhunderten noch deutlich stärker ist als bisher angenommen. Nur eine radikale Senkung der CO2-Emissionen der Atmosphäre kann noch bewirken, dass die 2°-Grenze des Pariser-Abkommens eingehalten wird. Das ergibt eine neue Studie des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung zur Klimasensitivität. Mit Klimasensitivität ist die Temperaturerhöhung gemeint zu der es bei einer Verdoppelung des Treibhausgehalts in der Atmosphäre kommt.
Studie: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
GCM-dominated approach allows censorship of alternative perspectives,when the models have a common, or at least widespread, problem: lack of realistic sensitivityto injection of freshwater into the upper layers of the ocean.
for - climate crisis - Global Climate Models (GCM) limitation - do not allow alternative perspectives - unrealistic sensitivity to injection of fresh water into upper layers of the ocean - Jim Hansen
But really hard to, yes, I'm sorry to interrupt, but I'm wondering, we're transcribing this.
We need an agreed symbol to interrupt if it is time sensitive
for - climate sensitivity - Sabine Hossenfelder - James Hansen
Eine Gruppe von Forscher:innen um James Hansen hat eine Studie veröffentlicht, der zufolge sich die globale Erhitzung beschleunigt und die 1,5°-Grenze schon bald überschritten werden wird. Die These, dass der IPCC die Empfindlichkeit der Erde für Veränderungen in der Einstrahlung (Climate Sensitivity) bisher unterschätzt, ist nicht wissenschaftlicher Konsens, wird aber sehr ernst genommen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/02/heating-faster-climate-change-greenhouse-james-hansen
esults over the past two decades have increasinglyshown that the “optimal” trajectory and the SCC are extraordinarily sensitive3 to the precisespecification of the model (Neelin et al., 2010; Budolfson et al., 2017; Gillingham et al.,2018).
optimal trajectories are very sensitive to the models.
Michael Mina. (2021, September 24). Thread On tests and the media It is almost universal that any piece discussing Rapid Ag tests says “PCR is more accurate but…” But even this isn’t true. It simply depends what you want to detect. If wanting to identify ppl who are contagious, PCR is much less accurate. 1/ [Tweet]. @michaelmina_lab. https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1441420493228236801
Scientists try to pinpoint why rapid Covid tests are missing some cases. (2022, January 6). STAT. https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/06/scientists-try-to-pinpoint-why-rapid-covid-tests-are-missing-cases/
Cutler, S. (2022, January 13). Cutting the Covid isolation period to five days is foolhardy and dangerous. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/13/cutting-covid-isolation-period-five-days-foolhardy-dangerous
A recent addition to the writer-editor-reader relationship is something called a “sensitivity reader,” that is someone of diverse background who can advise on dicey cultural matters whom writers are now encouraged to consult.
Lai, J., German, J., Hong, F., Tai, S.-H. S., McPhaul, K. M., Milton, D. K., & Group, for the U. of M. S. R. (2021). Comparison of Saliva and Mid-Turbinate Swabs for Detection of COVID-19 (p. 2021.12.01.21267147). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.01.21267147
Why Is It So Hard to Get a Rapid Covid Test in the U.S.? (2021, November 23). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-23/why-is-it-so-hard-to-get-a-rapid-covid-test-in-the-u-s
Minihan, S., Orben, A., Songco, A., Fox, E., Ladouceur, C. D., Mewton, L., Moulds, M., Pfeifer, J., Harmelen, A.-L. V., & Schweizer, S. (2021). Social Determinants of Mental Health During a Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/64v7x
Covid: Lateral flow tests more accurate than first thought, study finds—BBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved October 15, 2021, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58899612
Antico, L., & Corradi-Dell’Acqua, C. (2021). Far from the eyes, far from the heart. COVID-19 confinement dampened sensitivity to painful facial features. [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ewvp7
Gagne, Christopher, and Peter Dayan. ‘Peril, Prudence and Planning as Risk, Avoidance and Worry’. PsyArXiv, 11 May 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tcn7e.
Iimura, Shuhei. ‘Sensory-Processing Sensitivity and COVID-19 Stress in Adolescents: The Mediating Role of Resilience’. PsyArXiv, 14 April 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2u6wq.
The default fill_in method of Capybara is case sensitive. This is apparently due to their use of XPath. Anyhow, this seems to not be very well aligned with the entire idea of DSLs and letting non programmers write tests.
not very well aligned
Manmade CO2 Does Not Cause Measurable Warming
Actually, CO2 does cause measurable warming. The warming effect is not huge, and not worrisome, but it is not zero, and it is large enough to be measurable.
There really is no question about the fact that the Earth's average temperature has warmed slightly, as CO2 levels have risen, over the last six decades. The magnitude of that change is debatable: different "global" composite temperature indices vary in their measured trend by approximately a factor of two. But none of them show zero trend.
The "climate sensitivity" of the Earth's temperatures to changes in CO2 level can be estimated by careful comparison of measured temperatures to measured CO2 levels. Here's an example on my web site, showing how that can be done:
https://sealevel.info/sensitivity.html
Climate change is a highly politicized issue, so, as is the case for any politicized issue, if you want to understand it you need to seek out balanced information. If you want to learn about the SCIENCE of climate change, instead of political spin, here's a list of resources which can help:
https://tinyurl.com/learnmore4
It has:
● accurate introductory climatology information
● in-depth science from BOTH skeptics & alarmists
● links to balanced debates between experts on BOTH sides
● information about climate impacts
● links to the best blogs on BOTH sides of the issue
Larremore, D. B., Wilder, B., Lester, E., Shehata, S., Burke, J. M., Hay, J. A., Tambe, M., Mina, M. J., & Parker, R. (2020). Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 surveillance. MedRxiv, 2020.06.22.20136309. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309
‘Expert Reaction to Study Evaluating the Accuracy of the AbC-19TM Rapid Test for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies | Science Media Centre’. Accessed 26 February 2021. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-evaluating-the-accuracy-of-the-abc-19tm-rapid-test-for-sars-cov-2-antibodies/.
Carl T. Bergstrom. (2021, January 31). A somewhat technical thread about measuring vaccine efficacy. We’re used to the notion that certain properties of tests for disease depend on prevalence: Positive and negative predictive value do, for example, whereas sensitivity and specificity do not. [Tweet]. @CT_Bergstrom. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1355762090078703621
Surkova, E., Nikolayevsskyy, V., Drobniewski, F. (2020). False-positive COVID-19 results: hidden problems and costs. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30453-7
Manski, C. F. (2020). Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests (Working Paper No. 27226; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27226
Air Pollution Exposure and COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/air-pollution-exposure-and-covid-19/
Miller, J. G., Chahal, R., Kirshenbaum, J. S., Ho, T. C., Gifuni, A. J., & Gotlib, I. (2020). Heart Rate Variability Moderates the Link Between COVID-19 Stress and Emotional Problems in Adolescents: Evidence for Differential Susceptibility [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mp7wt
Yang, G., Csikász-Nagy, A., Waites, W., Xiao, G., & Cavaliere, M. (2020). Information Cascades and the Collapse of Cooperation. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 8004. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64800-z
Weissleder, R., Lee, H., Ko, J., & Pittet, M. J. (2020). COVID-19 diagnostics in context. Science Translational Medicine, 12(546). https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abc1931
Döhla, M., Boesecke, C., Schulte, B., Diegmann, C., Sib, E., Richter, E., Eschbach-Bludau, M., Aldabbagh, S., Marx, B., Eis-Hübinger, A.-M., Schmithausen, R. M., & Streeck, H. (2020). Rapid point-of-care testing for SARS-CoV-2 in a community screening setting shows low sensitivity. Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.04.009
Radulescu, A., Holmes, K., & Niv, Y. (2020). On the convergent validity of risk sensitivity measures [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qdhx4
Thread by @taaltree: Antibody tests are coming online. Never before have humans needed to understand Bayes rule more. Let’s talk about why it’s critical NOT to a…. (n.d.). Retrieved April 21, 2020, from https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1248467731545911296.html
An article about insulin sensitivity.
A beneficial impact of the fat quality on insulin sensitivity is not seen in individuals with a high fat intake (> 37E%).
This is likely do to the reduced carbohydrate intake rather than increased fat intake. Since carbohydrates generally insulin sensitivity, it's likely that this additional insulin resistance is acting as a confounder (as well as, presumably, a standard deviation widener). Thus, I would expect similar results during hypocaloric carbohydrate restriction.
For the4Wm−2radiative perturbation that a doubling of carbon dioxide produces, the reference-systemclimate sensitivity3isT0=λ0Rf∼1.2 to 1.3◦C.
The trigger warning signals not only the growing precautionary approach to words and ideas in the university, but a wider cultural hypersensitivity to harm and a paranoia about giving offense.
the ancients were sensitive primarily to such things as luminosity, saturation and texture, or even less obvious variables such as smell, agitation and liquidity.
So this is helping me think of sensitivity as the condition of possibility for "sensibility" or sense-ability. Before a thing is available to be sensed, the sensitivity has to be open/operating.