Within three to four months, you can run a model with similar performance on your laptop; 23 months later, you can run the same model on your phone
这一时间框架展示了AI技术民主化的惊人速度,暗示技术鸿沟正在迅速缩小,普通消费者将很快获得曾经只有顶级研究机构才能使用的计算能力,这可能重塑整个科技行业的竞争格局。
Within three to four months, you can run a model with similar performance on your laptop; 23 months later, you can run the same model on your phone
这一时间框架展示了AI技术民主化的惊人速度,暗示技术鸿沟正在迅速缩小,普通消费者将很快获得曾经只有顶级研究机构才能使用的计算能力,这可能重塑整个科技行业的竞争格局。
Neural Computer 真正成形,大概还要三年。
这一预测既大胆又谨慎,表明作者对神经计算机的发展有清晰的时间框架。三年时间对于实现如此根本性的技术转变来说既不算太长也不算太短,这种预测展示了作者对当前技术发展速度的深刻理解。
Scrub through CSS `@keyframes` animations on a visual timeline.
令人惊讶的是:CSS Studio提供了可视化的动画时间线编辑功能,让设计师能够像操作视频时间轴一样直观地编辑CSS动画,包括添加、移动、编辑和删除关键帧,甚至可以调整持续时间、延迟、方向和缓动效果,这大大简化了复杂动画的制作过程。
If this pace of progress continues — doubling task length every six or seven months — we should expect LLMs capable of completing week-long tasks some time next year, and month-long tasks in 2028.
周级任务明年,月级任务 2028——这个时间线与 METR 自己的预测(12-18 个月内 200 小时时间地平线)高度吻合,两个独立来源的收敛给了这个预测更高的可信度。月级任务意味着 AI 能独立完成一个完整的短期项目,从需求到交付。这不是「AI 辅助工作」的时代,而是「AI 执行项目」的时代——而距离这个时代到来,按目前的轨迹只有不到三年。
three METR researchers played themselves, with their current priorities, but pretending they had access to ~200-hour time horizon AIs – roughly what we expect 12–18 months from now.
令人震惊的时间预测:METR 认为 200 小时时间地平线的 AI 将在 12-18 个月内出现——也就是 2027 年底前。当前(2026 年初)最强模型约为 12 小时时间地平线,这意味着在不到两年内,AI 能独立完成的任务复杂度将提升约 17 倍。这不是科幻预言,而是 METR 基于实测数据的指数外推——而他们已经在为这个未来做组织准备了。
But we’ll be tearful fools If our husbands take us at our word and leave us.
This section of the text is able to show how the idea for these women of not being available to their husbands in the only way they could at the time was a hard decision. Bringing the possibility that their husband might even leave them if no sexual pleasure was offered to them, with Lysistrata's efforts, they agree over wine, allowing this treaty to commence.
for - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al. - from - climate departure paper
from - The projected timeline of climate departure from recent variability - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability
Recommended Resource
I recommend adding the webpage "Open Access in Australia" on Wikiwand that documents Australia's history for accepting and promoting open access and open publication in its country.
The site contains a timeline that documents key years in which the open movement, open access, open government, and open data concepts were introduced. The year that CC Australia was established is included in the timeline.
the status updates were not united into a stream by virtue of their creation by the same individual, but they were rather created as a collective timeline formed for the all-too-practical shared task of supporting protests: collective techno-individuation by design.
techno individuation
the actual crisis started since the end of 2019 but then if you see sri lanka's foreign debts started rising since 2010. you can see in this graph after 2010 there was a sharp rise in sri lanka's 00:08:42 external debt and if you go further deep you will notice that sri lanka owes most of their debt money to countries like china japan even india but comparatively lesser other than countries sri lanka also owes a lot of money to world bank 00:08:55 asian development bank
Wrong COVID - Timeline. (n.d.). Retrieved 23 March 2022, from https://time.graphics/line/455000
Relations between the Centre and the States ruled by Opposition parties are strained due to various factors, ranging from questions related to GST, the partisan behaviour of central agencies, the Centre’s move to give itself absolute powers in the transfer of IAS, IPS and IFS officers and the overbearing attitude of several Governors.
Harsha must have watched with growing surprise and interest as his audacious rival survived every challenge thrown at him, but the invasion of Lata must have been the last straw. It was of 618 CE, little more than eight since Pulakeshin II had come to the throne. There would be no for Harsha, who had been emperor for twelve , to put him in his place.
Jurisdictions that lifted lockdown measures too soon saw a resurgence in cases and deaths.
For instance, Texas. For a timeline, see "Timeline of Irresponsibility," San Antonio Review.
Eric Topol. (2020, November 28). This will go down in history as one of science and medical research’s greatest achievements. Perhaps the most impressive. I put together a preliminary timeline of some key milestones to show how several years of work were compressed into months. Https://t.co/BPcaZwDFkl [Tweet]. @EricTopol. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
in the last two decades of the twentieth century and in the first decade of the twenty-first
in the last third of the twentieth century,
At the mid-century mark
The Atlantic. ‘The Most Likely Timeline for Life to Return to Normal’. Accessed 2 March 2021. https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/02/pandemic-daily-life-normal-summer-fall/618108/.
‘Covid-19: Normal Life Back next Winter, Says Vaccine Creator’. BBC News, 15 November 2020, sec. Health. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799.
能永久使用么,License key也是只有一年的,域名就那几个能用
gantt-schedule-timeline-calendar
The freelance era (1998-2002)
Rahvy, A., & Ridlo, I. A. (2020). A Timeline Response: How Does Islamic Organizations Respond to COVID-19 in Indonesia? https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/kzhy9
University of Exeter. (n.d.). Retrieved 12 August 2020, from https://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/homepage/title_808437_en.html
Wilson, D. E., Joanna. (n.d.). COVID-19: Six months on the frontline (An Imperial Story). Retrieved 11 July 2020, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/stories/covid-19-first-six-months/
COVID-19 Modeling: Italy
It was in the latter end of September
In earlier editions, Victor leaves Switzerland in late August. The 1831 edition changes the timeline to late September.
ranging—anything that can be quantified, given a numerical value, can be turned into a graph, chart, diagram, or other visualization through computational means.
this is ignoring context of the situation and is making the claim that regardless if it is given numerical value it can be made into a bar graph. For our purposes this is true
But none of this made Priestley’s chart any less striking in its day. In fact, the idea of a timeline was still strange enough in the mid-eighteenth century that it required a certain amount of explanation.
the chart is very striking and revolutionary idea of the time
Over the course of the nineteenth and the twentieth centuries, the convention of the timeline was progressively naturalized.
background concerning when the timeline was becoming natural.
VitaMy professional story.
Monsieur de Champlain
He is often referred to as the Father of the New France.
The more recent the research is, the better—or at least, more relevant—it’s assumed to be.
The more recent the better
Society does not change overnight, but thinking it does lends a sense of drama to our everyday lives.
Drama is more important that reality?
Yet, as Alexander (1982) cautions, good theory must have components of both deterministic and voluntary behavior at all levels of analysis. We do not live in a strictly deterministic world. Thus, as family cycle researchers have learned, we must move with theoretical caution when embracing phases as part of a theoretical model.
This section feels a bit less complete, but if I understand correctly, Neal argues that the assumption that disaster phases exist as some predictable linear or cyclical model is overly deterministic in an unsatisfying way for disasters as complex social activity. Examining the trajectory of disaster phases at various levels of analysis is crucial.
Finally, the notation of the disaster phases affected emergency-responders' decisions. The lexicon of the four phases appeared to force disaster managers and responders to think and respond in a linear, separate-category fashion. Thus, this paradigm in the end can hurt effective response
Need to research whether these issues have been resolved or workarounds put in place since this 1997 publication. I kind of suspect not.
Other empirical studies show that the recovery process is not a simple, linear, or cyclical process. Different units or groups may experience, or perceive that they experience, the different stages of recovery I) at different times and 2) at different rates of time.
Neal cites several studies that contend the recovery process is temporally complex.
The edited work by Haas, Kates, and Bowden ( 1977) illustrates the complexity of the recovery process. Unlike most other overall codification efforts, the above authors explicitly recognize that recovery reflects a complex process. They note that people use several subcategories (e.g., restoration, recovery, rehabilitation, redevelopment, reconstruction) to describe aspects of the recovery period.
This classification of the recovery phase by Haas, Kates, and Bowden inclues more description of the phases but still cast it as a linear timeline.
By the 1960s, researchers had studied many disasters to allow codification efforts (Quarantelli and Dynes 1977). For some (e.g., Dynes 1970) disaster periods refer to a temporal category (e.g., before a disaster strikes, while a disaster strikes, after a disaster strikes). In other cases, the use of the phases may refer to functional activities that may or may not also be embedded with temporal considerations (stocking supplies, search and rescue, responding while the disaster strikes, attempting to recovery from the impact). For example, Barton (1970) combines both functional and temporal considerations of disaster. Yet, these and other writers never fully explored the theoretical implications of using the phases in their research
Early work to codify natural disasters relied in different degrees on the temporality of the event as a timeline of before/during/after.
Neal critiques this work as lacking in theoretical implications.
Disasters, Dynes argues, follow a general temporal sequence despite the agent. Dynes employs these phases to argue successfully for an "all hazards" approach to disaster
Dyne's definition evokes Powell's timeline approach to all disaster phases.
Events have a time span; actions have a time frame that highlights the urgency of (continuously) deepening our knowledge of time as a key component of organizations (Bleijenbergh, Gremmen, & Peters, 2016). In
Interesting way to temporally frame events as a span vs activity as a time frame/tempo.
User studies and intuition both suggest that the activities that a knowledge worker engages in change—sometimes dramatically—over time. Projects and milestones come and go, and the tools and information resources used within an activity often change over time as well. Furthermore, activities completed in the past and their outcomes often impact activities in the present, and ongoing activities will, in turn, affect activities that will be undertaken in the future. Capturing activity over the course of time has long been a problem for desktop computing.
"Activities are dynamic"
This challenge features temporal relationships between work and worker, in the past/present sense, and work and goals, in the present/future sense.
Evokes Reddy's T/R/H temporal organization of work and Bluedorn's work on polychronicity.
Recognising ourselves as having evolved, and thus being the times of nature, allows for the humanly constituted aspects of time to become one expression among the others. Biologists have dispelled the idea that only humans experience time or organise their lives by it. Waiting and timing in nature presuppose knowledge of time and temporality, irrespective of their being symbolised, conceptualised, reckoned, or measured. Yet, once time is constituted symbolically, it is no longer reducible to the communication of organisms or physical signals; it is no longer a mere sensory datum. For a person to have a past and to recognise and know it entails a representational, symbolically based imagination. Endowed with it, people do not merely undergo their presents and pasts but they shape and reshape them. Symbolic meaning thus makes the past infinitely flexible. With objectified meaning we can not only look back, reflect, and contemplate but we can reinterpret, restructure, alter, and modify the past irrespective of whether this is done in the light of new knowledge in the present, to suit the present, or for purposes of legitimation.
Still struggling a bit with this section but I think Adam is proposing that if we break down the barriers between understanding social time as symbolic and natural time as objective, that we can borrow methods of sensemaking from natural time and apply them to social time, it broadens our ways of knowing/understanding human temporal experience.
The history of Open Education – a timeline and bibliography
timeline
Beltran has spent most of his career with Pumas UNAM. He debuted on 24 November 1996 for Pumas UNAM against Morelia, where Pumas team won 3–2.
I believe 21st!