for - paper - Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

paper details - title: Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement - authors: Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Schott Janzwood, Johan Rockstrom, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan F. Donges - publication: Global Sustainability, 2024, January 17

summary - This paper provides a scientific definition of "polycrisis"

for - Indyweb dev - large language model for - constructing causal loop diagrams - System Dynamics Bot - large language model - constructing causal loop diagrams

for - key insight - failure of the gene coding uni-causal model - key insight - failure of genetic determinism

• for: social tipping point - tools, cascade institute, Boolean Causal Loop Analysis, BCLA, Cross-impact balance, CIB, socio-cognitive mapping, cognitive-affective mapping, ideological state-space

Kallus, N. (2020). DeepMatch: Balancing deep covariate representations for causal inference using adversarial training. In I. H. Daumé, & A. Singh (Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th international conference on machine learning. In Proceedings of Machine Learning Research: vol. 119 (pp. 5067–5077). PMLR

Using adversarial deep learning approaches to get a better correction for causal inference from observational data.

"Causal Deep Learning" Authors:Jeroen Berrevoets, Krzysztof Kacprzyk, Zhaozhi Qian, Mihaela van der Schaar

Very general and ambitious approach for representing the full continuous conceptual spectrum of Pearl's Causal Ladder, and ability to model and learning parts of this from Data.

Discussed by Prof. van der Shaar at ICML2023 workshop on Counterfactuals.

Question: how does this notion of hypothesis space relate to causal inference and reasoning?

[ Bengio, The Consciousness Prior, Arxiv, 2018]

Very general and ambitious approach for representing the full continuous conceptual spectrum of Pearl's Causal Ladder, and ability to model and learning parts of this from Data.

Discussed by Prof. van der Shaar at ICML2023 workshop on Counterfactuals.

(Cousineau,Verter, Murphy and Pineau, 2023) " Estimating causal effects with optimization-based methods: A review and empirical comparison"

To avoid making false conclusions, studies must identify all the sources of variation. Is this is even possible in most caes?

Matching approach to dealing with sampling bias. Basically use some intrinsic, or other, metric about the situations to cluster them so that "similar" situations will be dealt with similiarly. Then analysis is carried out on those clusters. Number of clusters has to be defined, some method, like k-means, if often used. Depends a lot on the similarity metric, the clustering approach, other assumptions

Terwiesch, 2022 - "A review of Empircal Operations Managment over the Last Two Decades" Listed as an important review of methods for addressing biases in Operations management by explicitly addressing causality.

Shayan Shirahmad Gale Bagi, Zahra Gharaee, Oliver Schulte, and Mark Crowley Generative Causal Representation Learning for Out-of-Distribution Motion Forecasting In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML). Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. Jul, 2023.

"Causal Triplet: An Open Challenge for Intervention-centric Causal Representation Learning" Yuejiang Liu1, 2,* YUEJIANG.LIU@EPFL.CH Alexandre Alahi2 ALEXANDRE.ALAHI@EPFL.CH Chris Russell1 CMRUSS@AMAZON.DE Max Horn1 HORNMAX@AMAZON.DE Dominik Zietlow1 ZIETLD@AMAZON.DE Bernhard Sch ̈olkopf1, 3 BS@TUEBINGEN.MPG.DE Francesco Locatello1 LOCATELF@AMAZON.DE

The data of the past is congruent with the current psychological trends that face the education system of today. Developmentalists have charted how children construct and revise intuitive theories. In turn, a variety of theories have developed because of the greater use of statistical information that supports probabilistic contingencies that help to better inform us of causal models and their distinctive cognitive functions. These studies investigate the physical, psychological, and social domains. In the case of intuitive psychology, or "theory of mind," developmentalism has traced a progression from an early understanding of emotion and action to an understanding of intentions and simple aspects of perception, to an understanding of knowledge vs. ignorance, and finally to a representational and then an interpretive theory of mind.

The mechanisms by which life evolved—from chemical beginnings to cognizing human beings—are central to understanding the psychological basis of learning. We are the product of an evolutionary process and it is the mechanisms inherent in this process that offer the most probable explanations to how we think and learn.

Bada, & Olusegun, S. (2015). Constructivism Learning Theory : A Paradigm for Teaching and Learning.

// Insight Maker is used to model system dynamics and create agent based models by creating causal loop diagrams and allowing users to run simulations on those

McGinley, L., & Sun, L. (n.d.). FDA adds new warning on Johnson & Johnson vaccine related to rare autoimmune disorder. Washington Post. Retrieved July 13, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/12/johnson-and-johnson-warning/

This is a key statement: how we experience the world depends on the perceptual and cognitive lens used to filter the world through.

Francis Heylighen proposes a nondual system based on causal dependency relationships to serve as the foundation for distributed cognition.(collective intelligence).

https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeicho2xrqouoq4cvqev3l2p44rapi6vtmngfdt42emek5lyygbp3sy.ipfs.dweb.link%2FNon-dualism%2520-%2520Mind%2520outside%2520Brain%2520%2520a%2520radically%2520non-dualist%2520foundation%2520for%2520distributed%2520cognition.pdf&group=world

Linking these many fragmented and long causal chains and tracing them back to the hyperthreat can be a polwerful visualization that brings the hyperthreat to life.

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the Guardian. ‘There’s No Proof the Oxford Vaccine Causes Blood Clots. So Why Are People Worried? | David Spiegelhalter’, 15 March 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links.

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Intro to "Agential Intra-Action"

So Campbell seems to have a lot of "causal chains," so where are the "bundles of evidence" exactly? I mean, this definitely seems to be moral reasoning, but this looks like more of a chain than a bundle.