• for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?

• highlight

  • the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
    • current climate models
    • global carbon estimates
    • IPCC
  • the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
  • the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.

• question

  • Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?

• for: precautionary principle, fossil fuel phase out, carbon budget - uncertainties, carbon budget - underestimate
• highlight
  • the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
    • soil carbon
    • ocean carbon
    • ocean heat
    • ice melt
    • biodiversity loss
    • biome tipping points
  • implies that the any one of these can easily bring our remaining carbon budget down to zero.

Gugerty, L., Shreeves, M., & Dumessa, N. (2021). Biased belief updating in causal reasoning about COVID-19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/bfw76

ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 18). @danielmabuse yes, we all make mistakes, but a responsible actor also factors the kinds of mistakes she is prone to making into decisions on what actions to take: I’m not that great with my hands, so I never contemplated being a neuro-surgeon. Not everyone should be a public voice on COVID [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1329002783094296577

News, J. A., Kaiser Health. (n.d.). Why the U.S. Is Underestimating COVID Reinfection. Scientific American. Retrieved 10 February 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-is-underestimating-covid-reinfection/