If you miss just one of these, the moratorium is irrelevant. The cumulative effect of these filters is substantial: 300+ local instruments translate into just ~1,525 MW of actual project delay in the US.
【数据】作者通过量化分析展示了多重筛选条件的累积效应：300多个地方性工具仅转化为约1,525 MW的实际项目延迟。这一精确的量化结果支持了他们的核心论点，即大多数禁令实际上并不影响项目进度，挑战了关于禁令大规模阻碍数据中心建设的普遍叙事。
Today, we estimate that roughly 2.3 GW of planned capacity is genuinely delayed because of local moratoriums and New York's executive order, the two categories of policy intervention for which we can establish a direct project-level impact.
【数据】这一精确的2.3GW延迟容量数字是文章的核心发现，与媒体报道中暗示的大规模建设受阻形成鲜明对比。作者通过项目级别的详细分析，将300多个地方禁令的影响量化为相对较小的延迟，这一数据挑战了关于数据中心建设被大规模阻止的普遍叙事。
In the training run for Astra, we observed only 14 cases of difficulty ending summaries, and no jailbreak-style instructions in the summary using our general monitor.
【数据】在Astra的实际训练运行中，只观察到14个摘要结束困难的案例，且没有检测到越狱式指令。这一对比数据表明，通过修复相关bug和改进监控，研究团队成功减轻了这一问题。
We identified only 27 summaries containing instructions which have framings similar to jailbreaks (despite there being no obvious reward advantage to do so).
【数据】27个包含越狱式指令的摘要在大量训练数据中极为罕见，且这些行为并未带来明显的奖励优势。这一具体数据点表明这种行为可能是模型内部表征或训练动态的副产品，而非有目的的优化结果。
Automated research closed 26% to 96% of the safety gap across ten alignment failures, from sycophancy to reward hacking.
【数据】自动化研究在不同类型的alignment failures上表现差异显著，安全差距闭合率从26%到96%不等。这一范围表明，AI自动化方法对不同类型安全问题的解决能力存在显著差异，可能需要针对特定问题定制方法。
Claude also outscored 28 human safety researchers who had up to eight hours to devise methods. On deception, for example, Claude's best method performed 20% better than the best human proposal.
【数据】Claude在欺骗问题上表现优于28名人类安全研究员，其最佳方法比最佳人类提案高出20%。这一比较结果虽然令人印象深刻，但需要谨慎解读，因为人类研究员的时间限制（8小时）可能影响了其表现。
Claude submitted more than 150 attempts at mitigating deceptive behavior, and achieved a final performance of 82% of the safety gap closed in this run.
【数据】Claude在解决欺骗行为问题上进行了150多次尝试，最终达到了82%的安全差距闭合率。这一高尝试次数表明了自动化研究方法的迭代性质，而82%的闭合率则显著优于人类研究员的20%平均表现。
Anthropic said operators affiliated with Alibaba and its AI lab carried out 28.8 million exchanges with its models using roughly 25,000 fraudulent accounts between April 22 and June 5.
这是一个具体的数据声明，涉及大量账户活动和数据交换。需要核实这些数字的准确性，包括：如何定义'fraudulent accounts'（欺诈账户），28.8 million exchanges的具体性质，以及Anthropic如何追踪这些活动。这些数据对于评估事件规模和严重性至关重要。
We identify three fundamental bottlenecks in current DLMs: (1) Low introspective consistency. SDAR: 0.699 vs. I-DLM: 0.984. (2) Compute inefficiency. TiDAR: ~7.8x overhead vs. I-DLM: ~2.5x. (3) Infrastructure mismatch. SDAR slope=84 vs. I-DLM: 549.
作者系统性地识别了现有DLMs的三大瓶颈，并通过量化对比展示了I-DLM的显著优势。内省一致性从0.699提升到0.984，计算开销从7.8x降低到2.5x，基础设施效率从84提升到549，这些数据不仅验证了I-DLM的有效性，也为未来DLM研究指明了方向。
Each state dynamically leads to a new state depend-ing on the forces involved.
Finally, in quantitative determination, interaction isdescribed as a continuous unfolding of states.
come January this is all coming tumbling down
for - prediction - US economy - after January - quantitative easing
material organization and access to anticipatory tools such as integrated assessment models also play an important part in the scripting and staging of futuring performances – as do the bodily competences of the practitioners.
for - futuring - different strokes for different folks - quantitative presentations of climate futures is ineffective for an audience that cannot appreciate it - the choice of how to present the future is therefore critical to produce a desirable response
Quantitative presentations of the future, such as most climate models, speak to what Porter (1996) calls a ‘trust in numbers’ and an assumption of ‘scientific rigor’ and rationality.
for - futures - quantitative presentations
Trump expect if he creates another world financial crisis he believes there will be a bailout and he believes that he and his cohort the world's wealthy will benefit from there being vastly more money in circulation with very little to use it on except the inflation in the value of the assets that they own that is what he's banking on this is literally I think his Economic Policy
for - quote - economic crashes are profitable for the elites - Trump plans to crash the global economy so that subsequent Quantitative Easing bailouts will inflate value of assets of the rich - from - Youtube - Trump wants to crash to benefit the ultra wealthy - Trump's planning to crash the global economy - Richard J Murphy - 2024, Dec
quote - economic crashes are good for the elites - Trump plans to crash the global economy so that subsequent Quantitative Easing bailouts will inflate value of assets of the rich - Trump expect if he creates another world financial crisis - he believes there will be a bailout and - he believes that he and his cohort the world's wealthy will benefit from there being vastly more money in circulation with very little to use it on except the inflation in the value of the assets that they own - That is what he's banking on - This is literally I think his Economic Policy - This is what he expects as a consequence of his trade Wars - He doesn't care that we suffer - He won't care about the countries in the developing world - the vast majority of countries in the world in fact who have their debts denominated in dollars who will suffer enormously as a result of their struggle to find the means to repay those debts - As for the time being, the dollar is inflated in value and interest rates are too high he won't care that people are thrown out of work - All he cares about is the inflation in asset values and that is what the whole of the world economy is now geared to create - for the benefit of a few - at cost to the vast majority - Trump's Economic Policy makes sense if you see it in this way - He runs a bailout economic strategy that is going to work for him and his friends because - it will result when the world economy crashes and yet more money being made available through the central banking system to inflate the value of the assets that they own - And they'll say thank you very much we did very nicely out of that when can we have another crash?
Algorithmic control of our lives is an expression of the rot at the heart of Western civilisation: quantitative values subsuming qualitative experience.
for - key insight - algorithmic control - quantitative values subsuming qualitative experience - Substack article - Best Served Cold: Luigi Mangione and The Age of Breach - Alexander Beiner
the positivist paradigm
Based in the belief that there is a tangible reality. Everything can be understood, measured, and/or identified. In this paradigm the researcher should focus on facts and they should look for fundamental laws.
Fundamentally, all real-time thermal cyclers are engineered to detect fluorescein (FAM) first and foremost, so dyes with longer wavelength emission may be detected less sensitively
The better students tend to exceed the indicated maximums.
of course this also depends on the overall quality of the work and not just the length...
In part in order to heighten his praise of Aldus as the ideal printer, Erasmus noted by contrast that most printers, given the absence of regulations, “fill the world with pamphlets and books [that are] . . . foolish, ignorant, malig-nant, libellous, mad, impious and subversive; and such is the flood that even
things that might have done some good lose all their goodness.”198 The overabundance of bad books drowned out even any good bits that might be present among them.
And we now say these same sorts of things about the internet and social media.
Values, rather than numbers, should drive decision-making. Ask whether what you measure accurately reflects your priorities. Many of our most cherished values are not amenable to quantitative measurement.
rank correlation analysis, using Kendall's tau-c. For this purpose the three urban renewal status classes are assumed to constitute a scale. Evidence that such an assumption is reasonable is present in Tables 1 and 3.
Kendall's tau-c
a non-parametric measure of relationships between columns of ranked data. The Tau correlation coefficient returns a value of 0 to 1, where: 0 is no relationship, 1 is a perfect relationship. source: https://www.statisticshowto.com/kendalls-tau/)
Gurdasani, Deepti. ‘Vaccinating Adolescents in England: A Risk-Benefit Analysis’. OSF Preprints, 4 August 2021. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/grzma.
Markowitz, D. M., Song, H. (Jin), & Taylor, S. H. (2021). Tracing the Adoption and Effects of Open Science in Communication Research. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dsf67
Agarwal, A. (2021). Ripple Effect of a Pandemic: Analysis of the Psychological Stress Landscape during COVID19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dm5x2
Daly, M., & Robinson, E. (2020). Psychological distress and adaptation to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/79f5v
ReconfigBehSci on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 3 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1351453660396605440
Lakens, D., Tunç, D. U., & Tunç, M. N. (2021). There is no generalizability crisis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tm8jy
Whitney R. Robinson on Twitter: “1/ An #EpiTwitter 🧵 about theory... https://t.co/rSjfkHG21r” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/WhitneyEpi/status/1295522551892971520
Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 8, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13151/
Han, H., & Dawson, K. J. (2020). JASP (Software) [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/67dcb
Lewis, N. A., Bravo, M., Naiman, S., Pearson, A. R., Romero-Canyas, R., Schuldt, J., & Song, H. (2020). Using Qualitative Approaches to Improve Quantitative Inferences in Environmental Psychology [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/eqyjp
McBride, O., Murphy, J., Shevlin, M., Gibson Miller, J., Hartman, T. K., Hyland, P., … Bentall, R. (2020, April 13). Monitoring the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population: an overview of the context, design and conduct of the COVID-19 Psychological Research Consortium (C19PRC) Study. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxe2n
Fan, R., Xu, K., & Zhao, J. (2020). Weak ties strengthen anger contagion in social media. ArXiv:2005.01924 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01924
Wurtzer, S., Marechal, V., Mouchel, J.-M., & Moulin, L. (2020). Time course quantitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Parisian wastewaters correlates with COVID-19 confirmed cases. MedRxiv, 2020.04.12.20062679. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062679
Jarynowski, A., Wójta-Kempa, M., & Belik, V. (2020, April 22). TRENDS IN PERCEPTION OF COVID-19 IN POLISH INTERNET. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dr3gm
Reflecting those divisions, officials decided not to enlarge significantly the pool of assets the bank can buy—though it did expand the kinds of corporate and mortgage bonds it can purchase. Without changing rules that prohibit the bank from buying more than a third of any government’s debt, Mr. Ducrozet estimated that the ECB can continue its bond purchases for only 9-12 months.
As with neoliberalism more generally, New Public Management is invisible, part of a new “common sense” that has somehow become hegemonic, whereby the “entrepreneurial spirit” has infused the public sector, leading to “businesslike government”. As with the claims of neoliberalism more generally as to its positive outputs in terms of prosperity, NPM has never been shown to have been successful even in its own terms. NPM “introduced punishments and rewards to produce better services with lesser staff. Instead of having freed energies and creativity of employees formerly shackled by their bureaucratic turfs, NPM reforms have bound energies into theatrical audit performances at the cost of work and killed creativity in centralizing resources and hollowing out professional autonomy... Fundamental deprivation of the legitimacy of public employees . . .has traumatized many most-committed employees and driven others toward a Soviet-type double standard.” (Juha Siltala, New Public Management : The evidence-based worst practice?, Administration; Vol. 45, No. 4.; 2013 pp. 468-493) Sekera quotes Christopher Pollitt et al., who “after compiling a database of 518 studies of NPM in Europe, determined that “more than 90% of what are seen by experts as the most significant and relevant studies contain no data at all on outcomes” and that of the 10% that had outcomes information, only 44% of those, or 4% of the total, found any improvements in terms of outcomes.” But in the end, the point of NPM is less that of measureable outcomes, and more that of the ideological victory of turning the public and its good into customers exercising their “choices” (see tax revolt example in Duggan), along of course with the radical disempowering of public administration workers and their unions, instituting “cost savings” by cutting their real income and putting more and more of the public sector’s production directly into the profit-making market.
“Public performance measurement systems often have unfortunate or disastrous unintended consequences. Most recently, a pay-for-performance scheme at the Veterans Health Administration (V.A.) led to falsified wait-time records and care so delayed that, in some cases, patients died awaiting medical attention. Twenty-five years of studies have shown that “pay-for-performance” doesn’t work in either the public or private sector: such systems smother creativity, crowd out intrinsic motivation and invite gaming and generally fail to achieve intended results.”
Module 1: Quantitative Genetics
Interesting module, introduces the base concepts needed to conduct the project, for instance the analysis of complex characters where both genetic and environment factors contribute to trait variation.
Details annotated: https://via.hypothes.is/http://cnsgenomics.com/sisg/Module1.html