for - organization - Ecological Forecasting Initiative - R. Quinn Thomas

for - definition - realtime ecological forecasting - definition - near term ecological forecasting - adjacency - near term ecological forecasting - open science - citizen science - climate departure

Die Erde ist in eine neue „und nicht vorhersagbare Phase der Klimakrise” eingetreten. 25 von 35 Indikatoren für die Gesundheit des Erdsystems haben die schlimmsten je festgestellten Werte erreicht. Eine Gruppe der weltweit renommiertesten Klimafachleute stellt im „2024 state of the climate report“ fest, dass immer mehr Wissenschaftler:innen einen Kollaps der Zivilisation für möglich halten. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/08/earths-vital-signs-show-humanitys-future-in-balance-say-climate-experts

Bericht: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595

Bericht über die Zerstörung der Mangrovenwälder in El Salvador und über Projekte zur Renaturierung. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/sep/05/mangroves-el-salvador-forests

26:30 Brings up progress traps of this new technology

26:48

question How do we shift our (human being's) relationship with the rest of nature

27:00

metaphor - interspecies communications - AI can be compared to a new scientific instrument that extends our ability to see - We may discover that humanity is not the center of the universe

32:54

Question - Dr Doolittle question - Will we be able to talk to the animals? - Wittgenstein said no - Human Umwelt is different from others - but it may very well happen

34:54

species have culture - Marine mammals enact behavior similar to humans

• Unknown unknowns will likely move to known unknowns and to some known knowns

36:29

citizen science bioacoustic projects - audio moth - sound invisible to humans - ultrasonic sound - intrasonic sound - example - Amazonian river turtles have been found to have hundreds of unique vocalizations to call their baby turtles to safety out in the ocean

41:56

ocean habitat for whales - they can communicate across the entire ocean of the earth - They tell of a story of a whale in Bermuda can communicate with a whale in Ireland

43:00

progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - examples - examples - poachers or eco tourism can misuse

44:08

progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - policy

45:16

whale protection technology - Kim Davies - University of New Brunswick - aquatic drones - drones triangulate whales - ships must not get near 1,000 km of whales to avoid collision - Canadian government fines are up to 250,000 dollars for violating

50:35

environmental regulation - overhaul for the next century - instead of - treatment, we now have the data tools for - prevention

56:40 - ecological relationship - pollinators and plants have co-evolved

1:00:26

AI for interspecies communication - example - human cultural evolution controlling evolution of life on earth

for - adjacency - ecological crisis - gene centrism

adjacency - between - ecological crisis - gene centrism - adjacency relationship - The ecological crisis and climate crisis is a symptom of separation and alienation of humans from nature - Scientific paradigms that take away human agency and minimise it, treating it as secondary reinforced this lack of agency

Luhmann meminjam Edgar Morin tentang dominasi ekologis. Bahwa dalam relasi ekologis sebagian sistem mungkin dominan tapi tidak mendominasi.

Dominasi Ekologis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges-Louis_Leclerc,_Comte_de_Buffon

Influenced Jean-Baptiste Lamarck and Georges Cuvier

Cross reference The Parrot and the Igloo.

• for: green growth - ethics - indigenous violence, Indonesia - violence against indigenous people, progress trap - green growth - nickel mining - eviction of indigenous people

• for: cultural destruction - Jawara - poachers, modernity - disruption of ecological cycle, example - ecosystem disruption

• comment

• example: ecosystem disruption
• example: human cultural ecosystem in balance
• the uncontrolled influence of the outside world always follows. Governments are too shortsighted to understand that this always happens and feel they can control the situation. They cannot. Greed breeds resourcefulness
  • In a matter of years, poachers have disrupted the Jawara's traditional diet, forcing them to overhunt deer and disrupt the entire ecological cycle that existed up until then.It's an example of how modernity ruthlessly and rapidly disrupts ecosystems. In this case, ecosystems where humans have integrated in a balanced way.

• for: symbiocene, ecozoic, ecocivilization, eco-civilization, animal communication, inter-species communication, Azi Raskin, Earth Species Project, umwelt

• summary

  • Very interesting talk given by Aza Raskin, founder of:
    • https://www.earthspecies.org/
    • cofounder of https://www.humanetech.com/
  • on two main themes:
    • how AI is being used to decode language communication of many different plant and animal species, including inter-fauna, inter-flora and fauna-flora cross communication
    • how AI used to study human languages has detected a universal meaning shape between all languages.

• reference

  • https://www.earthspecies.org/

08:00 his sword technique was adaptable, mendable, consistent with the complex nature of reality, that changes constantly, not resisting change but adapting self to it

• see zk on how a more dynamic approach to productivity and systems can help us reflect reality more closely, ever changing

• annotate

• for: degrowth, polycrisis, simplification
• title: Critics of ‘degrowth’ economics say it’s unworkable – but from an ecologist’s perspective, it’s inevitable
• author: Mike Joy
• date: Aug. 15, 2023
• source: https://theconversation.com/critics-of-degrowth-economics-say-its-unworkable-but-from-an-ecologists-perspective-its-inevitable-211496

• for: inequality, poverty, W2W, Jane Goodall, socio-ecological system, climate justice, emptiness - example, entanglement - inequality and climate crisis
• key insight
  • if you're very poor and you're living in some kind of Wilderness Area
    • you're going to destroy the environment in order to survive
    • example: Gumby Street National Park
      • in 1960 it was part of the Great Forest
      • but by the late 1980s was a tiny Islander forest and all the hills around were bare
      • more people living there than the land could support
      • too poor to buy food elsewhere
        • struggling to survive
        • cutting down the trees to make money from charcoal or Timber
        • or to make more land grow more food and
      • that's when it hit me
        • if we don't help these people these local communities find ways of living without destroying the environment
        • we can't save chimpanzees forests or anything else so we need to alleviate poverty
• comment
  • This is why the inequality crisis is entangled with the climate crisis

• for: ecological civilization
  • Nora Bateson
    • Nora shares about the many diverse intentional communities she has lived in and found them all dysfunctional.
    • The problem is that they have a mission statement, a purpose.
    • The perspectival knowing is different for each person.
    • How do you nurture unintentional community?
    • support unintentional possibility
    • top-down instructional is an unecological process
    • The question "who can you be when you are with me?" is preferred over "what should you be?"

• for: Malthus - energy extraction, overshoot,
• paraphrase
  • increasing energy extraction via cultural evolution of new energy saving and extraction technologies allows a population to continue growing exponentially instead of crashing due to limits of energy extraction growth.

• for:UBI, universal basic income
• for: UBI, universal basic income, futures
• The physical labor required to maintain life’s essential conditions against the forces of entropy.
• The intellectual labor required to constantly test and advance the individual and collective maps of our ever-evolving territory.

• The spiritual labor required to continuously renew our sense of individual and collective connection to all that is.

• comment

  • two of these are articulating the entanglement of the individual and collective.

• for: ecological civilization, climate emergency, climate EMERGEncy inner/outer transformation, eco civilization, rapid whole system change

• Title

  • Ecological Civilization: From Emergency to Emergence
• Author
  • David Korten
• Date
  • May 25, 2021

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, ecological realization, ecological awakening
  • claim
    • the idea that we need a profound, sudden and massive change in ourselves in a dangerous notion
    • comment
      • why?
      • it presumes we have a deficit as an ecological being
      • when in actual fact, we cannot be otherwise
      • so instead, our job is to awaken our already ecological nature
      • by this, we mean our deep, intrinsic ecological nature as ecological (interdependent) beings
      • we humans have a strange and very limited kind of interdependence, which is exploitative to other people and other species
      • we have to become aware of that culturally conditioned limitation

• for: rapid whole system change, transformation, inner/outer transformation

• key insight

  • we just have to realize we already are an ecological being
  • we are already in inter-relationship
  • we already are the individual entangled with the collective

• comment

  • we can call this "ecological realization"
  • seeing that we already are an ecological being

• for: ecological civilization, degrowth, futures, deep ecology, emptiness, polycrisis, human exceptionalism, planned descent
• source
  • The Great Simplifcation
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE39xfNRRyw

• Description

  • Nate hosts this discussion on what constitutes an ecological civilization with guests
    • William Rees
    • Rex Weyler
    • Nora Bateson

• Reflections Overall,

  • an insightful discussion on the polycrisis and
  • reflections on what is in store for civilization.
• There is consensus that
  • what we are experiencing has been decades in the making and
  • the solutions-oriented approach to solving problems has only treated the symptoms and indeed has made things worse.
• There is a strong undercurrent of the emptiness in nature

• Rex

  • emphasized the folly of human exceptionalism that has been socially normalized and which
  • continues to create the major separation that fuels the polycrisis.
  • Not recognizing that we are nature, not recognizing our animal nature
  • we look upon nature with an attitude of controlling nature, rather than flowing with her.
  • advocated Taoism as a more consistent way to frame nature rather than the reductionist, control methodology that separates us from nature.

• Nora's perspective is the folly of abstraction that generates fixed preconceptions of aspects of nature that we then reify.

  • The fixed preconceptions are solidified but they are an oversimplified version of reality,
  • and that oversimplification leads to actualizing the cliche"a little knowledge is dangerous" into civilization
  • in other words, the continuous manufacture of progress traps.

• William sees our impending crash as not only inevitable, but natural.

  • In this, he concurs with Rex's perspective.
  • Human beings are simply another species and like them,
    • we are susceptible to population explosions when negative feedbacks are removed,
    • which can lead to nature self-correcting with mass dieoff when resources are overconsumed.

• for: ecological civilization
  • William Rees

• for: ecological civilization
• Rex
  • danger is we will build a model
  • question to Rex:
    • what then is the alternative?
    • admit we are animals
    • if we overshoot, we have to contract

• My overall objective in this paper is to
  • unite the sciences of ecology and evolution
  • with the spiritual practice of Zen
    • in order to inspire actions to address the extinction crisis that we are currently facing.
  • I do this by addressing the following three points:
    • Zen and science are both based upon empirical observations of the world.
    • Zen and science both tell us that there is no separation between humans and the world around us.
  • Ecology and evolution provide the scientific background needed to address the biodiversity crisis;
    • Zen provides the deeper knowing that will motivate our action to address this problem

22:30 Differing environments/context matters. So before giving tricks, hacks, etc. realise that you function within a different environment.

Historicity is a historical sibling to this: periods have different environments, and thus don't apply 1 on 1.

But we can still learn from other other people & periods?

Kurzer Artikel zur Einführung in die Ecological Economics.

• Title: Consumption Corridors: Living a Good Life within Sustainable Limits
• This book explores how to enhance peoples’ chances to live a good life in a world of ecological and social limits.

• Comment
• related to the previous comment on limits

• Comment
• When
  • human needs
  • individual preferences
  • individual freedom
• are combined, it provides the individual with agency, creativity and freedom to choose a lifetsyle within ecological limits
• Especially when we are collectively in overshoot, we must adhere to such limits
• Limits always exist within any society. There is no such thing as absolute freedom
• However, we have been abusing our ecological freedom and have thereby threatened our own existence by doing so

• simple diagram showing trend towards collapse

• spectrum from sustainable to collapse:

  • sustainable
  • unsustainable
  • socio-ecological crisis
  • socio-ecological collapse

• key observation

• Historical societies that have experience ecological collapse:
  • Mayan
  • Roman
  • Greek
  • Easter Islands
  • Pitcairn Islands
  • Norse colony in Greenland
  • Cahokia in American Midwest
  • Anasazi

• Title: Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions
• Author:
  • Nicole L. Bolvin
  • Melinda A. Zeder
  • Dorian O. Fuller
  • Michael D. Petraglia

Definition of = schismogenesis

• Gregory Bateson defines this in his book Steps to an Ecology of Mind,
• defines schismogenesis as = a “creation of division.”
• The term derives from the Greek words σχίσμα skhisma, “cleft,” (borrowed into English as schism), and γένεσις genesis, “generation” or “creation.”
• Bateson claimed that we human beings define ourselves and each other through schismogenesis.

• = cumulative cultural evolution
• humans excel at surviving in = novel ecological niches
• because we share information with each other
• = cumulative cultural evolution - prevents us
• from = reinventing the wheel

!- explanation : ecological economics grandfathering - starting where the country is at - is not fair, because currently, some countries have much higher carbon footprint - why should they be allowed to carry on and incrementally decrease - while other low carbon, undeveloped countries cannot?

!- insight : double bind confronted with personal survival, the person is forced to choose the personware * The cost of disrupting it is perceived as too high

!- for : climate departure * Camilo Mora's 2013 Climate Departure paper: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW * 2021 ecological disruption from climate change paper - Christopher Tritos: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihtmvfurik7dk3ksfjwn6bnbqnzgfpkokfwcvgo5xarmqseedajiy.ipfs.dweb.link%2Fthe%2520projected%2520timing%2520of%2520abrupt%2520ecological%2520disruption%2520from%2520climate%2520change%252010.1038%40s41586-020-2189-9.pdf&group=vnpq69nW

Elmo Felton wrote a recent paper about Uexkull and the umwelt in the field of ecological psychology.

Maarten van Smeden. (2021, February 1). Personal top 10 fallacies and paradoxes in statistics 1. Absence of evidence fallacy 2. Ecological fallacy 3. Stein’s paradox 4. Lord’s paradox 5. Simpson’s paradox 6. Berkson’s paradox 7. Prosecutors fallacy 8. Gambler’s fallacy 9. Lindsey’s paradox 10. Low birthweight paradox [Tweet]. @MaartenvSmeden. https://twitter.com/MaartenvSmeden/status/1356147552362639366

Lewis, S. J., Dack, K., Relton, C. L., Munafo, M. R., & Smith, G. D. (2021). Was the risk of death among the population of teachers and other school workers in England and Wales due to COVID-19 and all causes higher than other occupations during the pandemic in 2020? An ecological study using routinely collected data on deaths from the Office for National Statistics. BMJ Open, 11(11), e050656. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050656

Zubek, J., Ziembowicz, K., Pokropski, M., Gwiaździński, P., Denkiewicz, M., & Boros, A. (2021). Rhythms of the day: How electronic media and daily routines influence mood during COVID-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/czg27

Adler, J. M., & Wang, K. (2021). Narrative identity among people with disabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic: The interdependent self. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6724x

The Art of Noticing

This is a compilation of articles that I had written as a way to process the changes I was observing in the world and, consequently, in myself as a reaction to the events. I have come to think of this process as the art of noticing. This process is in contrast to the expectation that I should be a productive member of society, a target market, and a passive audience for charismatic leaders: celebrities, billionaires, and politicians.

• Social: fame
• Economic: wealth
• Political: power

An Agent of Change

To become an agent of change is to recognize that we are not separate, we are not individuals, we are not cogs in a machine. We are complex and diverse. We are designers. We are a creative, collective, self-organizing, learning community.

We are in a process of becoming—a being journey:

• Personal resilience
• Social influence
• Economic capacity
• Political agency
• Ecological harmony

This is how we shift from an attention economy to an intention economy. Rather than being oriented toward the failures of the past, the uncertainty of the present, or the worries of the future, in a constant state of anxiety, stress, and fear, we are shifting our consciousness to manifest our intention through perception (senses), cognition (mind), emotion (heart), and action (body). We are exploring how we imagine, design, and build the future together.

We are the builders collective.

We are one.

Mazumdar, S., & Thakker, D. (2020). Citizen Science on Twitter: Using Data Analytics to Understand Conversations and Networks. Future Internet, 12(12), 210. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi12120210

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/12/12/210

Richard Ramsay brought this session to the attention of our World Weavers group.

Gusman, M. S., Grimm, K. J., Cohen, A. B., & Doane, L. D. (2021). Stress and Sleep Across the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact of Distance Learning on U.S. College Students’ Health Trajectories. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/m5zv9

Savaris, R. F., G. Pumi, J. Dalzochio, and R. Kunst. ‘Stay-at-Home Policy Is a Case of Exception Fallacy: An Internet-Based Ecological Study’. Scientific Reports 11, no. 1 (5 March 2021): 5313. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1.

Freedman, D. A. (n.d.). Ecological Inference and the Ecological Fallacy. 7.

These words have no meaning.

EWB Hub x GRiPS Student Workshop—Introduction to Experience Sampling Methods. (2020, June 29). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcEfuSkiR8I

Zusammenfassende Darstellung des Stern Reports

Wichtig sind auch die Grafiken über den weltweiten Verbrauch an materiellen Ressourcen und die Verweise auf entsprechende Studien.

Fonseca, S. C., Rivas, I., Romaguera, D., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Czarlewski, W., Vidal, A., Fonseca, J. A., Ballester, J., Anto, J. M., Basagana, X., Cunha, L. M., & Bousquet, J. (2020). Association between consumption of vegetables and COVID-19 mortality at a country level in Europe. MedRxiv, 2020.07.17.20155846. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.17.20155846

Méndez, P. F. (2020). Blue uncertainty: Warding off systemic risks in the Anthropocene – Lessons from COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z2br5

Atoui, S., Chevance, G., Romain, A. J., Kingsbury, C., Lachance, J., & Bernard, P. (2020, June 17). Daily associations between sleep and physical activity: A systematic review and meta-analysis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ezusb

Nunes, A., Trappenberg, T., & Alda, M. (2020). The Definition and Measurement of Heterogeneity. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3hykf

Galandra, C., Cerami, C., Santi, G., Dodich, A., Cappa, S., Vecchi, T., & Crespi, C. (2020). Covid-19 in mind: How job loss and health threatening events modulate risk-taking behaviours in real-life contexts [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5n942

Olthof, M., Hasselman, F., & Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A. (2020, May 1). Complexity In Psychological Self-Ratings: Implications for research and practice. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/fbta8

Chaves, M. S., Mattos, T. G., & Atman, A. P. F. (2020). Characterizing network topology using first-passage analysis. Physical Review E, 101(4), 042123. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042123

Fried, E. I. (2020, April 24). Mental Health and Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/36xkp https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/36xkp

In both SLA and CALL (computer-assisted language learning) research, a new perspective may be found in ecological approaches, e.g., van Lier (2004), who takes an ecological world view and applies it to language education. Ecology broadly studies organisms in their relations with their environment. Van Lier’s approach thus incorporates many different perspectives with regard to language learning, e.g., sociocultural theory, semiotics, ecological psychology, and the concepts of self and identity. Key constructs in this approach to language learning are affordances and scaffolding, with an affordance defined as the relationship between an organism and something in the environment that can potentially be useful for that organism. Technology is viewed as a source of affordances and learning opportunities for language learners. Appropriate scaffolding, i.e., help from peers, teachers, or technology itself, might also be necessary, and this is a core feature of telecollaboration.

Ecological Approaches to SLA and Technology (Leo van Lier): Ecological approaches to SLA are premised on a holistic view of human-world interrelations and the notion of affordance-effectivity pairings that help to better understand human activity and functioning. To many educators, technology and ecology are irreconcilable opposites. Yet, educationally speaking, they turn out to be perfectly compatible. This presentation examines the ways in which the Internet is an emergent resource, a social tool, and a multimodal repository of texts. The ecological affordances of CALL will be illustrated in terms of activity through, with, at and around computers.

The presence and impact of cultural aspects which facilitate the resilience to changes in the Nenets’ socio-ecological systems is discussed in further detail in the following piece.

Bruce C. Forbes, “Cultural Resilience of Social-ecological Systems in the Nenets and Yamal- Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, Russia: A Focus on Reindeer Nomads of the Tundra.” Ecology & Society 18, no. 4 (December 2013): 1-16. GreenFILE, EBSCOhost (accessed March 26, 2017).

This difficulty in comparing algorithms (due to differences in forest type, location, and assessment strategy used for different algorithms) indicates a clear need for set of open data and centralized assessment to allow different methods to be competed against one another to determine the best routes forward.

This kind of approach has been very successful in other image analysis problems (e.g., ImageNET).

The National Ecological Observatory Network data seems ideal for doing something like this. Data is/will be available for a variety of different systems and with LiDAR, Hyperspectral, RGB, and field data for large numbers of plots.

This difficulty of applying across forest types is central to the challenges of developing approaches that can be applied to continental scale data collection like that being conducted by NEON. Overcoming this challenge will likely require incorporating ecological information into models, not just the remote sensing, and determining how to choose and adjust different approaches to get the best delineations possible based on information about the forest type/location.

This kind of data is available for NEON plots and so these methods could potentially be well leveraged with NEON data. This would be particularly true if the NEON plot data could be used to develop a spatial model for these features that could be used to predict their values across space.

...which is why use of an ecological framework to make sense of their languaging practices makes sense