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  1. Nov 2016
  2. journals.plos.org journals.plos.org
    Climatic Associations of British Species Distributions Show Good Transferability in Time but Low Predictive Accuracy for Range Change
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    1. ethanwhite 14 Nov 2016
      Finally, by assuming the non-detection of a species to indicate absence from a given grid cell, we introduced an extra level of error into our models. This error depends on the probability of false absence given imperfect detection (i.e., the probability that a species was present but remained undetected in a given grid cell [73]): the higher this probability, the higher the risk of incorrectly quantifying species-climate relationships [73].

      This will be an ongoing challenge for species distribution modeling, because most of the data appropriate for these purposes is not collected in such a way as to allow the straightforward application of standard detection probability/occupancy models. This could potentially be addressed by developing models for detection probability based on species and habitat type. These models could be built on smaller/different datasets that include the required data for estimating detectability.

      forecasting ecology species distribution models detection probability occupancy modeling
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