纯粹收集分析这种形态,过去互联网有过先例,但你会发现它卖不出去钱。
作者一针见血地指出了纯记录工具的商业困境。在 AI 时代,Token 成本是持续性的,这就要求产品必须交付“结果”而非仅仅是“数据”。这揭示了 AI 应用从“工具属性”向“劳动力属性”转型的必然逻辑:用户不为存储买单,只为价值产出付费。
纯粹收集分析这种形态,过去互联网有过先例,但你会发现它卖不出去钱。
作者一针见血地指出了纯记录工具的商业困境。在 AI 时代,Token 成本是持续性的,这就要求产品必须交付“结果”而非仅仅是“数据”。这揭示了 AI 应用从“工具属性”向“劳动力属性”转型的必然逻辑:用户不为存储买单,只为价值产出付费。
As evidenced by numerous studies on statistical cognition (Kline, 2004; Beyth-Marom et al, 2008), even trained scientists have a hard time interpreting p-values, which frequently leads to misleading or incorrect conclusions.
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
few researchers can resist the temptation to conclude that there is no effect, a common fallacy called "accepting the null" which had frequently led to misleading or wrong scientific conclusions (Dienes, 2014, p.1).
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
Again, p is the probability of seeing results as extreme (or more extreme) as those actually observed if the null hypothesis were true. So p is computed under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. Yet it is common for researchers, teachers and even textbooks to think of p as the probability of the null hypothesis being true (or equivalently, of the results being due to chance), an error called the "fallacy of the transposed conditional" (Haller and Krauss, 2002; Cohen, 1994, p.999).
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
Many researchers fail to appreciate that p-values are unreliable and vary widely across replications.
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
NHST as it is carried out today consists of this incoherent mix of Fisher and Neyman–Pearson methods (Gigerenzer, 2004).
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
p-values give a seductive illusion of certainty and truth (Cumming, 2012, Chap. 1). The sacred α = .05 criterion amplifies this illusion, since results end up being either "significant" or "non-significant".
p-value is misinterpreted and confusing
the solution is not to reform p-values or to replace them with some other statistical summary or threshold, but rather to move toward a greater acceptance of uncertainty and embracing of variation.
Where it's mentioned how to address the problems with p-values
What, then, can and should be done? I agree with the ASA statement's final paragraph, which emphasizes the importance of design, understanding, and context—and I would also add measurement to that list.
Where it's mentioned how to address the problems with p-values
many other systems that are already here or not far off will have to make all sorts of real ethical trade-offs
And the problem is that, even human beings are not very sensitive to how this can be done well. Because there is such diversity in human cultures, preferences, and norms, deciding whose values to prioritise is problematic.