Stroke, delirium, anxiety, confusion, fatigue - the list goes on. If you think Covid-19 is just a respiratory disease, think again.

Coronavirus: What does Covid-19 do to the brain?

If you cover your nose and mouth, it will help stop the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus, write Professor Devi Sridhar and Lois King.

Coronavirus: If you can’t socially distance, wear a face mask or use a bandana or scarf – Professor Devi Sridhar and Lois King

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the re-opening of societies and the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust surveillance, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are usually too low to detect, followed by an exponential growth of virus, leading to a peak viral load and infectiousness, and ending with declining viral levels and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model surveillance effectiveness considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective surveillance, including time to first detection and outbreak control, depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that surveillance should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.

10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309

Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 surveillance

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is currently causing a high mortality global pandemic. However, the clinical spectrum of disease caused by this virus is broad, ranging from asymptomatic infection to cytokine storm with organ failure and death. Risk stratification of individuals with COVID-19 would be desirable for management, prioritization for trial enrollment, and risk stratification. We sought to develop a prediction rule for mortality due to COVID-19 in individuals with diagnosed infection in Ontario, Canada. Methods: Data from the Ontario provincial iPHIS system were extracted for the period from January 23 to May 15, 2020. Both logistic regression-based prediction rules, and a rule derived using a Cox proportional hazards model, were developed in half the study and validated in remaining patients. Sensitivity analyses were performed with varying approaches to missing data. Results: 21,922 COVID-19 cases were reported. Individuals assigned to the derivation and validation sets were broadly similar. Age and comorbidities (notably diabetes, renal disease and immune compromise) were strong predictors of mortality. Four point-based prediction rules were derived (base case, smoking excluded as a predictor, long-term care excluded as a predictor, and Cox model based). All rules displayed excellent discrimination (AUC for all rules > 0.92 ) and calibration (both by graphical inspection and P > 0.50 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation set. All rules performed well in the validation set and were robust to random replacement of missing variables, and to the assumption that missing variables indicated absence of the comorbidity or characteristic in question. Conclusions: We were able to use a public health case-management data system to derive and internally validate four accurate, well-calibrated and robust clinical prediction rules for COVID-19 mortality in Ontario, Canada. While these rules need external validation, they may be a useful tool for clinical management, risk stratification, and clinical trials.

10.1101/2020.06.21.20136929

Derivation and Validation of Clinical Prediction Rule for COVID-19 Mortality in Ontario, Canada

The grim milestone reported Wednesday surpasses the peak hit in late April.

CoronavirusU.S. hits highest single day of new coronavirus cases with more than 45,500, breaking April record

Iran is struggling to control COVID-19 between difficult public health decisions and persistent international sanctions.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30500-4

COVID-19 in Iran: round 2

A sense of civic duty and mutual confidence between scientists and health authorities played a role in Portugal high testing rates.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30499-0

High COVID-19 testing rate in Portugal

Healthcare workers and patients who have survived COVID-19 are facing stigma and discrimination all over the world.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30498-9

Stigma during the COVID-19 pandemic

What kinds of face coverings work for protection against COVID-19? How do you use them safely? A series of simple steps outlines the answers

How to Use Masks during the Coronavirus Pandemic

People infected with the coronavirus may be left with permanent lung damage. Doctors are reporting growing numbers of people who still have breathlessness and coughing months after falling ill with covid-19, and whose chest scans show evidence of irreversible lung scarring.

The coronavirus is leaving some people with permanent lung damage

More than 2,435,200 people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 124,300 have died, according to a New York Times database. This map shows where the number of new cases is rising and where it is falling in the last 14 days.

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

New York City has not reported an uptick in Covid-19 cases many feared would come from weeks of mass protests against police brutality.

New York City reports no protest-related upticks in Covid-19

The research was the target of a conspiracy theory about the origin of the new coronavirus.

White House ordered NIH to cancel coronavirus research funding, Fauci says

Several factors suggest that Bangladesh could be one of the next COVID-19 hotspots: it has a high population density; it has poor health infrastructure and resources; there has been poor adherence to physical distancing; complete lockdown has not been ensured at a national level; there is uncoordinated population mobility between rural and urban areas; there is little awareness of COVID-19 among the population; home quarantine has been used in place of institutional quarantine for returning overseas travellers; there are overcrowded urban areas with substandard housing; health institutions have limited capacities; and effective governance has been largely absent. In addition, the country is accommodating 1 118 576 forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals named as Rohingya, including 860 175 Rohingya people who are sheltering in the world's largest refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, a city in southeastern Bangladesh.1The Daily StarAll Rohingya refugees registered: Minister.https://www.thedailystar.net/rohingya-crisis/all-rohingya-refugeesregistered-minister-1603690Date: July 11, 2018Date accessed: June 8, 2020Google Scholar,  2

10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30282-5

Rohingya refugees at high risk of COVID-19 in Bangladesh

EU-wide survey reveals deep disillusionment at response, and desire for closer cooperation in future

Coronavirus: Europeans say EU was ‘irrelevant’ during pandemic

England’s pubs can reopen on 4 July, UK prime minister Boris Johnson has announced, after they were shut due to covid-19. Customers will have to provide personal information upon entry to help coronavirus contact tracing, but there are concerns about how the data will be handled.

Concerns raised about pubs collecting data for coronavirus tracing

10.1136/bmj.m2456

Greater independence from commercial interests is more important than ever

Commercial influence and covid-19

10.1038/s41562-020-0909-7

Governments worldwide have implemented countless policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We present an initial public release of a large hand-coded dataset of over 13,000 such policy announcements across more than 195 countries. The dataset is updated daily, with a 5-day lag for validity checking. We document policies across numerous dimensions, including the type of policy, national versus subnational enforcement, the specific human group and geographical region targeted by the policy, and the time frame within which each policy is implemented. We further analyse the dataset using a Bayesian measurement model, which shows the quick acceleration of the adoption of costly policies across countries beginning in mid-March 2020 through 24 May 2020. We believe that these data will be instrumental for helping policymakers and researchers assess, among other objectives, how effective different policies are in addressing the spread and health outcomes of COVID-19.

COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0)

Careers and coronavirus: Sign up for expert advice straight to your inbox

Receive e-mail updates to help you navigate a new academic year and a changed research landscape.

Michael Baker, the doctor who devised New Zealand’s aggressive coronavirus response, explains what inspired his successful strategy.

Why New Zealand decided to go for full elimination of the coronavirus

Prosecutors need to show empathy for the vulnerable and be vigilant against corruption and organised crime

Covid-19 has changed everything from crime to policy. Legal systems must keep up

People in the UK want to put climate action at the heart of the economic recovery

UK citizens' assembly shows big support for green covid-19 recovery

10.36190/2020.14

In this paper, we present a first multilingual cross-domain dataset of 5182 fact-checked news articles for COVID-19, collected from 04/01/2020 to 15/05/2020. We have collected the fact-checked articles from 92 different fact-checking websites after obtaining references from Poynter and Snopes. We have manually annotated articles into 11 different categories of the fact-checked news according to their content. The dataset is in 40 languages from 105 countries. We have built a classifier to detect fake news and present results for the automatic fake news detection and its class. Our model achieves an F1 score of 0.76 to detect the false class and other fact check articles. The FakeCovid dataset is available at Github.

FakeCovid -- A Multilingual Cross-domain Fact Check News Dataset for COVID-19

Background. Wide variation between countries has been noted in per-capita mortality from the disease (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Determinants of this variation are not fully understood. Methods. Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 198 countries were examined, including age, sex ratio, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of infection, lockdowns, viral testing, contact tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. Results. In univariate analyses, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature were positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 194 countries, the duration of infection in the country, and the proportion of the population 60 years of age or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, while duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all p<0.001). The prevalence of obesity was independently associated with mortality in models which controlled for testing levels or policy. International travel restrictions were independently associated with lower per-capita mortality, but other containment measures and viral testing and tracing policies were not. In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 8.0% each week, as compared with 54% each week in remaining countries. On multivariable analysis, lockdowns tended to be associated with less mortality (p=0.43), and increased per-capita testing with higher reported mortality (p=0.70), though neither association was statistically significant. Conclusions. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks

In one of the world's most congested shanty towns, social distancing is not a luxury people can afford. And density is a friend of the coronavirus.

How Asia's biggest slum contained the coronavirus

People praise me and my key worker neighbours for keeping things running before ranting about rule-breakers in ghettos

I'm a nurse in a deprived area of the UK. Here's the sinister truth about Covid and inequality

10.1126/scitranslmed.abc1126

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied heavily on RT-PCR testing. However, limited test availability, high false-negative rates, and the existence of asymptomatic or sub-clinical infections have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be used to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We found a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average in March 2020 and showed that this surge correlated with COVID-19 case counts across states. If 1/3 of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US sought care, this ILI surge would have corresponded to more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections across the US during the three-week period from March 8 to March 28, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to have been doubling slower than every 4 days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the US characterized by rapid spread across the US with over 80% infected patients remaining undetected. We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data and discuss the broader potential to use syndromic surveillance for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.

Using influenza surveillance networks to estimate state-specific prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world

COVID-19 Infections Tracker

Mind & BodyWhat is 'self-nudging'? A simple trick to make healthier choices Practicing healthy lifestyle habits can be challenging — here are 7 ways to trick yourself into making better decisions.

What is 'self-nudging'? A simple trick to make healthier choices

Although the world has long needed a more systematic approach to cybersecurity, the issue has come to the fore as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that cyberattacks are increasingly targeting health facilities underscores the need for a rapid, concerted policy response.

Ensuring Cybersecurity for Critical Civilian Infrastructure

There are many antibody tests available that can reveal if you have had and recovered from the coronavirus. Is it worth paying for one of these tests?

Should you pay for a coronavirus test? Here's what you need to know

10.1111/bjso.12393

Notions of psychological frailty have been at the forefront of debates around the public response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. In particular, there is the argument that collective selfishness, thoughtless behaviour, and over‐reaction would make the effects of COVID‐19 much worse. The same kinds of claims have been made in relation to other kinds of emergencies, such as fires, earthquakes, and sinking ships. We argue that in these cases as well as in the case of the COVID‐19 pandemic, other factors are better explanations for fatalities – namely under‐reaction to threat, systemic or structural factors, and mismanagement. Psychologizing disasters serves to distract from the real causes and thus from who might be held responsible. Far from being the problem, collective behaviour in emergencies – including the solidarity and cooperation so commonly witnessed among survivors – is the solution, one that should be harnessed more effectively in policy and practice.

COVID‐19 in context: Why do people die in emergencies? It’s probably not because of collective psychology

Millions of people in Beijing are living under renewed restrictions, as a spike in virus cases continues.

Coronavirus in Beijing: 27 neighbourhoods not allowed to leave as spike continues

Public Health Officials Face Wave Of Threats, Pressure Amid Coronavirus Response

Fleeing a big city because of the pandemic is a bigger gamble than it might seem.

The High Cost of Panic-Moving

The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic

Covid-19 death rates twice as high in England's most deprived areas

COVID-19 is a major acute crisis with unpredictable consequences. Many scientists have struggled to make forecasts about its impact [1]. However, despite involving many excellent modelers, best intentions, and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed.

Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed

A review into the 2m (6ft) social distancing rule has been commissioned by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Coronavirus: Could social distancing of less than two metres work?

10.31234/osf.io/gkwme

COVID-19’s impacts on workers and workplaces across the globe have been dramatic. We present a broad review of prior research rooted in work and organizational psychology, and related fields, for making sense of the implications for employees, teams, and work organizations. Our review and preview of relevant literatures focuses on: (i) emerging changes in work practices (e.g., working from home, virtual teams) and (ii) economic and social-psychological impacts (e.g, unemployment, mental well-being). In addition, we examine the potential moderating factors of age, race and ethnicity, gender, family status, personality, and cultural differences to generate disparate effects. Illustrating the benefits of team science, our broad-scope overview provides an integrative approach for considering the implications of COVID-19 for work and organizations while also identifying issues for future research and insights to inform solutions.

COVID-19 and the Workplace: Implications, Issues, and Insights for Future Research and Action

10.31234/osf.io/x3uh6

Wearing face masks is one of the essential means to prevent the transmission of certain respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Although acceptance of such masks increases in the Western hemisphere, many people feel that social interaction is affected by wearing a mask. In the present experiment, we tested the impact of face masks on the readability of emotions. The participants (N=41, calculated by an a priori power test; random sample; healthy persons of different ages, 18-87 years) assessed the emotional expressions displayed by twelve different faces. Each face was randomly presented with six different expressions (angry, disgusted, fearful, happy, neutral, sad) while being fully visible or partly covered by a face mask. Lower accuracy and lower confidence in one’s own assessment of the displayed emotions indicate that emotional reading was strongly irritated by the presence of a mask. We further detected specific confusion patterns, mostly pronounced in the case of misinterpreting disgusted faces as being angry plus assessing many other emotions (e.g. happy, sad and angry) as neutral. We discuss compensatory actions that can keep social interaction effective (e.g. body language, gesture and verbal communication), even when relevant visual information is crucially reduced.

Wearing face masks strongly confuses counterparts in reading emotions

10.31234/osf.io/hgqke

The aim of this study was to assess the temporal evolution of the psychological impact of the COVID-19 crisis and lockdown from two surveys carried out in Spain with a time difference of about one month. Symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress, and the psychological impact of the situation were longitudinally analyzed using the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES) respectively. The Brief Resilient Coping Scale (BRCS) and the Mini-Social Phobia Inventory (Mini-SPIN) were also employed to evaluate resilience and social anxiety. There was a total of 4,724 responses from both surveys. Symptomatic scores of anxiety, depression and stress were exhibited by 37.22%, 46.42% and 49.66% of the second survey respondents, showing a significant increase compared to the first survey (32.45%, 44.11% and 37.01%, respectively). There was no significant longitudinal change of the IES scores, with 48.30% of the second survey participants showing moderate to severe impact of the confinement. Low resilience was shown by 40.5% of the respondents, and high social anxiety by 34.8%. Constant news consumption about COVID-19 was found to be positively associated with symptomatic scores in the different scales. On the other hand, daily physical activity was found to be negatively associated with DASS-21 scores. Results indicate that people with social anxiety might be especially vulnerable to the development of other mental disorders after the relaxation of the confinement measures.

Longitudinal evaluation of the psychological impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Spain

arXiv:2006.03141

We describe in this report our studies to understand the relationship between human mobility and the spreading of COVID-19, as an aid to manage the restart of the social and economic activities after the lockdown and monitor the epidemics in the coming weeks and months. We compare the evolution (from January to May 2020) of the daily mobility flows in Italy, measured by means of nation-wide mobile phone data, and the evolution of transmissibility, measured by the net reproduction number, i.e., the mean number of secondary infections generated by one primary infector in the presence of control interventions and human behavioural adaptations. We find a striking relationship between the negative variation of mobility flows and the net reproduction number, in all Italian regions, between March 11th and March 18th, when the country entered the lockdown. This observation allows us to quantify the time needed to "switch off" the country mobility (one week) and the time required to bring the net reproduction number below 1 (one week). A reasonably simple regression model provides evidence that the net reproduction number is correlated with a region's incoming, outgoing and internal mobility. We also find a strong relationship between the number of days above the epidemic threshold before the mobility flows reduce significantly as an effect of lockdowns, and the total number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100k inhabitants, thus indirectly showing the effectiveness of the lockdown and the other non-pharmaceutical interventions in the containment of the contagion. Our study demonstrates the value of "big" mobility data to the monitoring of key epidemic indicators to inform choices as the epidemics unfolds in the coming months.

The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy

The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows: The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel2. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate. The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time. Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks. The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020. We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic. The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing. Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.

Preliminary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 importation & establishment of UK transmission lineages

Some countries are considering easing coronavirus lockdowns to reopen their borders. International tourist numbers could fall by up to 80% in 2020, the World Tourism Organization says. Pre-crisis, France was the world’s most visited country.

Chart of the day: These countries normally have the highest international tourist numbers

This is a "letter to the editor" about a preprint by the UK OpenSAFELY Collaborative,

RESPONSE TO GOLDACRE ET AL.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30425-4

Tale of three seeding patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia

Excess mortality data avoid miscounting deaths from under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated. According to EuroMOMO, which tracks excess mortality for 24 European states, England had the highest peak weekly excess mortality in total, for the over-65s, and, most strikingly, for the 15-64 age group. This column argues that research is needed into such divergent patterns. It suggests that national statistical offices should publish P-scores (excess deaths divided by ‘normal’ deaths) for states and sub-regions, and permit EuroMOMO to publish P-scores as well as their less transparent Z-scores. This would aid comparability, better inform pandemic policy, and allow lessons to be drawn across heterogeneous regions and countries.