two-thirds of all postdoctoral fellows in biology in American universities believe that they are going to make this step, but in fact, only about a quarter of them succeed
Yes it's a chasm, post-postdoc. I always picture Roadrunner cartoons. Meep meep.
media outlets
US News and World Report was once a magazine, now it is solely a college rating service!
inconsistent with human nature
Popper's view seems, like Bacon's, a view based on a very sparse early stage, offering the first tentative notions about a richly detailed world that narrative-deprived observers were humbly awed by. Now we are awash in zany ideas and can hardly see past them to reality sometimes. We need machetes to hack back jungles of assertion, not a shyness about offering tentative propositions.
choose what is and is not worth observing
Yes conditional sampling bias is infinitely deep in scienctific inference, right down to the Anthropic Principle.
we understand
This is a reductionist's blind spot (physics professor). It says that combinatorics is so straightforward that it doesn't count, once some basis set of interacting units is mapped out.
cleansed of harmful preconceptions
the less you think the better you observe? interesting
demystify somewhat the business of science
a good goal, even for scientists.
But such processeshave not been well characterized.
"such processes" are "not well characterized?" What does this mean?
Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts
good poster child for methods
trivium
the trivium
standard deviation σ/√n. Where σ is the standard deviation of the sample and n is the number of observations in the sample
called the standard error of the mean
Identifying Causal Effects from Observations
Great, a chapter on this topic
Concepts You Should Know
For data analysis: a page of concepts
Reminders from Basic Probability
Basic probability: notation, etc.
Scientists should also make their data and all other relevant materials available to the world once they publish their research
"should" is easy to say -- what about giant model outputs for instance?
calculated the Jacobian using thenumdifftoolsPython package. The specific268method we used from this package is a second-order forward difference method
nice tool to know about
he proposed framework uniquely elucidates therelationship between the IT and statistical perspectives on causalit
sounds worth the slog, and we are lucky to have the leading example be in climate science
distributions over the effect rather than values of the effect and(2) are defined with respect to random variables representing a cause rather than specific values
Getting used to random-variables calculus
We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.
entrainment, radius, and stability dependence
quasi-geostrophi
Only incidence of this string in the book
verticallypointing lidar.
amazing new data source since it sees clear air (vapor)
Morning convection is particularly strong in the Gulfof Panama because of its concave coastline
Yes, but for gravity wave reasons not just a land breeze.
abatic wi
katabatic = downhill, anabatic = uphill
ractional cloud coveragetends to be highest around sunrise and lowest duringthe afternoon. The thinning (and in some cases thebreakup) of the overcast during the daytime is due tothe absorption of solar radiation just below the cloudtops (see Fig. 4.30
Diurnal timing of albedo affects the climatic timescale energy balance. Might it change with climate?
evaporation of the drizzle drops in thesubcloud layer absorbs latent heat. The thermody-namic impact of the downward, gravity-driven flux ofliquid water is an upward transport of sensible heat,thereby stabilizing the layer near cloud base
Stabilization by drizzle
In contrast, cooling from above drivesclosed cell convection
Albedo of the Earth depends scarily much on this delicate bistable (two-regime) solution for PBL-top clouds!
Heating from below drives open cellconvection
Bottom up vs. top-down convection
horizontal roll vortices
a momentum instability leading to ALONG-SHEAR rolls -- not KH instability which makes billows ACROSS the shear.
The area indicated by the hatched region representsthe total amount of heat input into the bottom of the boundarylayer from sunrise until time t1
Conserved variable with height diagram, subject to a stability limit. Energy flux "fill the area" game.
turbulent sensible heatflux FHacross the mixed layer
Notice the cooling effect at zi, since the upward flux is negative below, and then zero above.
evolution during summer over land
Classic diurnal cycle
nonlocal air-parcel movement
Nonlocal effects = convection (penetrative parcel motions). Diffusion idea (flux proportional to gradient) breaks down.
Typical variation of wind speeds with height in thesurface layer for different static stabilities
Wind speed in stable and unstable boundary layers
Karmam
Karman
logarithmic wind profile is consistent with aK-theory approach
via a mixing length theory for K
Kmust increase linearly with height
K is proportional to eddy size (height above ground)
logarithmic profile
Log layer near the surface.
The stable boundarylayer near the ground consumes TKE, resulting inweak and sporadic turbulence there
surface friction consumes it, stability just prevents vertical transports of the TKE downward to refresh the slowed winds
Bowen ratio over the oceans decreaseswith increasing sea surface temperature. Typical valuesrange from around 1.00.5 along the ice edge to lessthan 0.1 over the tropical oceans where latent heatfluxes dominate
Sometimes I see "evaporative fraction" EF used. That is clearer in its meaning.
owen ratio6:BFHsFEs
There it is, the ratio.
bulk transfer
Bulk flux formula and its coefficient
elongated gyre. Rossby waves of very low frequency are active in setting up this western extension of the circulation
beta plume image
Forcing and β-plumes.
beta plume
The ECN region is defined as 1128–1228E, 258–358Nandthe SUS region is defined as 958–858W, 288–388N.
Box definitions
PEER REVIEWED
And now numbered! /usr/local/webroot/htdocs/
FIG. 7. The horizontal distribution of (a),(b)v, (c),(d)vD, (e),(f)vQ, and (g),(h)vaqgat 500 hPa on day 0. Thewhite dashed contour lines denote a heavy-rainfall area (day 0 precipitation greater than 20 mm day21in ECN andgreater than 12 mm day21in the SUS
Composite omega patterns add up to the total pretty well, on average
To separate thesesignals, we decompose each meteorological variable intoan EPE-related background component (means fromday213 to day24 and from day14today113) and anEPE-related synoptic-scale component (the differencesbetween the total and the background component)
This should have been mentioned sooner, this is like the 10th use of the word "background", and "synoptic"
stronger coupling
stronger coupling -- there it is
The expression for can be cast in various forms that, although mathematically equivalent, are open to markedly different interpretation.
QG omega equation: all forms
sea ice
sea ice is in ocean surface collections (hourly and monthly)
MERRA-2 data collections
2D datasets may be browsed at https://goldsmr4.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/dods/ 3D datasets at https://goldsmr5.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/dods/
To use a data collection, you must make a NASA Earthdata account. You can put your USERNAME and PASSWORD in the URL like this: dods://USERNAME:PASSWORD@goldsmr5.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/dods/M2I3NVAER
Enter that in the Data Choosers tab, General-->URLs, URL box in IDV's Dashboard. Or simpler software Panoply will accept it.
Or, if you use the plain URL, IDV or Panopy or other software should prompt you for credentials.
nst1_2d_int_Nx
KE budget
TableofContents
TOC
Budgets
Budgets appendix
the nature of turbulence isstrongly modulated by heat fluxes and drag (momen-tum fluxes) at the surface.
back to a more narrative exposition, after the formalism-heavy section 9.1
vertical profile of horizontal wind speed
winds in the "log layer"
profile of the variance ofvertical velocity
dimensionless profile of turbulence
t*is of order 15 min,which corresponds to the turnover time for the largestconvective eddy circulations, which extend from theEarth’s surface all the way up to the capping inversion
turnover timescales
Obukhov
the height above the surface at which mechanical turbulence gives way to buoyant turbulence
aero-dynamic roughness length, z0
roughness lengths: always surprises me how small they are
kinematic momentum fluxes
again with the KINEMATIC fluxes (remember some question confusions in the exam?)
friction velocity,
friction velocity: the surface stress is the defining scale
Deardorffvelocity
Deardorff: surface heat flux is the defining scale
roth-order closure. In thiscase, neither Eqs. (9.10) nor (9.11) is retained. Instead,the mean flow state is parameterized directly. Thisapproach, called similarity theory
Zeroth order closure directly assumes the large scale solution
gradient-transfer theory, K-theory, eddy-diffusivitytheory, or mixing-length theory.
A common first-order closure: down-gradient flux
Reynoldsaveraging—an applied mathematical method thateliminates small linearterms such as those associatedwith nonbreaking waves, but retains the non-
Reynolds averaging
nalogy with radiative fluxes in theexpression for radiative heating rates (4.52)
CONVERGENCE of the statistical heat flux is a heating rate by the scales being treated statistically
inematic heat fluxandhas units of (K m s1
kinematic heat flux: just the T times velocity part
imensionless Richardson number,
dimensionless Richardson number: m^2/s^2 divided by m^2/s^2
Laminar flow becomes turbulent when Ridrops below the critical value Ric0.25
Critical richardson number
Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability
shear instability, even when there is some static stability
dvectionof TKEby the mean wind,Mismechanical generationof turbulence,Bis buoyantgeneration or consumptionof turbulence,Tris trans-portof turbulence energy by turbulence itself, and is the viscous dissipation rate.
treating TKE as a continuous scalar that is advected, generated by shear, generated by buoyancy, diffused, and dissipated.
ecific kinetic en
specific KE, treating TKE as homogeneous
covariance
covariance is a flux, if one of the variables is a velocity and the other is a transportable property
for any half-hour period, there is a well-definedmean temperature and velocity; the range of temper-ature and velocity fluctuations measured is bounded(i.e., no infinite values); and a statistically robust stan-dard deviation of the signal about the mean can becalculated. That is to say, the turbulence is not com-pletely random; it is quasi-rand
behomogeneous
stationary, homogeneous, isotropic -- but all defined (?) by the time-domain standard deviation here
Turbulence is a natural response to instabilities inthe flow—a response that tends to reduce the insta-bility. This behavior is analogous to LeChatelier’sprinciplein chemistry.
LeChatelier's principle, or a general law of systems even? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier%27s_principle
luctuating
fluctuations or deviations from the mean. In the time domain, we called these anomalies.
KE cas-cades through medium-size eddies to be dissipated bymolecular viscosity at the small-eddy scale
The cascade (in 3D turbulence)
Scales of horizontal motion
Scales of motion named
Exercis
Chapter 9 exercises
The Atmospheric BoundaryLayer
Chapter 9
Initial Evaluation
evaluation
nalysis tendency of vertically integrated total water
Analysis tendency of water
TOA radiative fluxes
Net radiative balances
Observational Data Count
Obs data count
ivTABLE OF CONTENTS
TOC
DTDTANA
MERRA2 budget terms definitions
local and non-local energy diffusion across the wavenumbers, with all Fourier modes feeling a sort of thermal bath described by a Gibbs-ensemble
another idea of saturation or equilibrium
based on the idea that only the mean flux, ϵin<math><msub is="true"><mrow is="true"><mi is="true">ϵ</mi></mrow><mrow is="true"><mi is="true">i</mi><mi is="true">n</mi></mrow></msub></math>, plays a statistical role in the inertial range [2]. In such a case, Kolmogorov derived the celebrated −5∕3<math><mo is="true">−</mo><mn is="true">5</mn><mo is="true">∕</mo><mn is="true">3</mn></math> power law
yes it starts with the classic
Up until now, all manipulations leading to the global and to the scale-by-scale energy balances (8) and (15)–(17) are exact. In order to proceed further we need to make some assumptions.
framework only, so far
The presence of a cascade requires that there exists a range of scales where all terms on the RHS of (15) are vanishingly small.
peculiar logical / lexical construct
The prescribed radiative cooling rate is at the default value (−1.5 K/day) in the first control simulation (BASE). It is reduced by half to −0.75 K/day throughout the troposphere in HEAT
Small domain, so little cooling, must be quite intermittent
96 × 96 grid points with a horizontal spacing of 2 km. There are 50 vertical levels
So coarse and small for these days...
Equation (6) illustrates that the magnitude of effective buoyancy depends on the local second derivative of B, rather than the simple sign and magnitude of B
Ohh 3D inverse Laplacian of HORIZONTAL Laplacian
It cannot penetrate when something is taking its place
Elicit and then teach to the misconceptions, I have heard in pedagogy advice that seems sound.
defense of its members,
Just funding cuts, or idea-based harassment? Some history I should hear about over a beer someday.
long-enduring disintegration of science into specialties,we need to re-integratescientific reasoninginto a new holistic worldview.
THERE IT IS! The zeitgeist hunger as I see it: Re-synthesis of reductionism's bits. With necessary and actually very useful approximations (essentials, not fundamentals!). Maybe the information age helps make it possible, and "semi-objective" (interpersonally shareable) if not unique (dominant Master Narratives). Infodynamics bookkeeping tools and concepts help. Multivocality of unifying narratives is an increasingly undeniable facet of the greater truth of the world.
it is a profoundly human activity,
yes, with the profound as well as the human being important words
will be free from this struggle
'twas ever thus, and ever thus shall be!
problems of science are not so much in Nature itself but in our own thoughtsabout Nature
Yes. Denying ourselves the power of causality narratives, especially high-level ones like (nonunique) teleology stories, because they are misinterpreted as attribution of those to nature.
the dispositionof contemporary science itsel
yes contemporary, different from modern.
ebulousness of modern science
this word modern needs unpacking into sub-schools of silliness
he nature and necessity of explanations, and, above all, the fundamental,but often unrecognized,obstacles toobtaining them
More reading I ought to do... when will I ever find time to write?
Edmund Husserl
Die Krisis (Belgrade 1936)?
enaissance magic
Alchemy
odern science has convinced us that nothing that is obvious is true and that everything that is magical, improbable, extraordinary, gigantic, mi-croscopic, heartless, or outrageous is scientific
modernity was radical in its 1920s day, now is an edifice or institution to be transcended
the true nature of causality outside of my range
Have you seen Judea Pearl's nice book summarizing how Statistics was contrived to hide the question, essentially by bullies? https://g.co/kgs/dHeCCK
not random but teleological,yet without a presetgoal
teleology is a strategy to better use the frail human mind (an aspect of epistemology), not a characteristic (or not) of nature!
Everything is evolving
Yes but most of the action is in cyclostationary orbits we can learn a lot from, and perhaps then apply to the slight secular trends.
Given that todaythatfundamental scientific questions about time, space, matter, life, and consciousness remain unanswered, more precise measurements willnot help. Instead, weneed tounearth and reexaminethose of our beliefsfrom which the questions stem.
awkward, has grammatical error - reframe
the worldview
"one's worldview", or "our chosen worldview"
Mathematics is the language of expressing natural laws, but a correct syntax, as such,is noguaranteeofthe truth of a script
Indeed- I consider it an accounting system. Surprising implications can be derived from familiar sometimes, but a sequence of equalities ("derivation") often just looks like 0=0 repeated again and again to prop up a narrative sometimes with some sleights of hand.
Thequantumis understood as the elemental constituent of everything that exists. It is postulatedthat thiscould be the underlying reason why all processes are essentially alik
Really, is that the key? Reeks of old-school "modern" physicist mindset.
Isn't it a higher level law of order in time (infodynamics), not the identicality of the hyper-reductionist's "atom", that makes the macro-regularities?
guides us through an examination
is a guided examination (or litany?)
Current problems of physics may well imply thatwe areon the verge ofrevealingeye-opening new insights
vague. Omit?
he theories themselves influence
"filter bubbles" are the new "turtles all the way down"!
Bayesian filter divergence (nonuniqueness) might be the infodynamic paradigm?
I do not pretend to master modern science in all of its complexity
Nor can any human any more, which is part of the profundity of the times. We need "statistical infodynamics" (and rational inattention theory from economics) because nobody can ever again know it all.
nature this
nature OF this
the book draws oncommon sense, onpractical wisdom, and oneveryday experience
Yes, the outdoor peasant mind meeting the stifling temple mind of entombed-truths science!
Thermodynamics is considered a uni-versal theory
Is it a special case of Infodynamics, with entropy = -information?
this theory of nonequilibrium thermodynamics
mention this sooner, before the excitable praise to the novelty? I was inspired by a Prigogine book back in high school before I could understand it.
understanding and insight. In fact, this newly revealednatural law of time makes sense
But did it require a slight redefining of "understanding", "sense", and "insight"? Post-modern, without throwing away the power of the modern? I shall read on.
Why is evolutionary theory notformulated as a law of physics?
YESSS!
thoseprinciples of physicsthat
how principles of physics might
probing and
and probing
Can we discern the whole?
There we go! Can we still see through the mesh blinders of reductionism?
explained by the fact that everything that exists is comprised of the same elemental constituents, quanta of light
Ugh, reductionism run wild. I thought this book would be about the re-synthesis, a gesture toward a useful and rigorous science of patterns and entities, building girders strong enough to perch above reductionism's abyss of microdeterminism as the be all and end all of scientific description?
As surprising as it maybe, common patterns are ubiquitous
Quite an artifact of an authorial mind deep in unfamiliar terrain, here in paragraph 2. Isn't the second phrase a tautology? I guess "common" has not been defined, and is used in an uncommon meaning here (to mean parallelism between distant layers of abstraction). If this is as true as tautology, who could find it surprising?? What mindset is presupposed of the reader here?
the principle of least action does not, in itself, describe the trajectory of a planet or the course of a river, the free-energy principle will need to be unpacked carefully in each sphere of its application
principle of least action in information theory
the time-average of free energy, which is called “action” in physics
free energy and action
“reduce surprise,” you “live longer.”
but "that which does not kill me makes me stronger"
the aim of philosophy “is to understand how things in the broadest possible sense of the term hang together in the broadest possible sense of the term.”
i drink, and i know things
we harvest sensory signals that we can predict
confirmation bias is our nature, ugh
Dark-Room agents can only exist if they can exist. The tautology here is deliberate, it appeals to exactly the same tautology in natural selection (Why am I here? – because I have adaptive fitness: Why do I have adaptive fitness? – because I am here).
like the Rotunno-Klemp-Weisman theory of squall lines: it doesn't predict them, it explains them if they happen to exist
surprise is also the negative log-evidence for the model entailed by the agent
defining surprise in agent terms
the intriguing link between informational uncertainty and physical disorder. Mathematically, they are identica
entropy
Shannon set out this framework, with its beautifully simple, core idea of equating generation of information with reduction of uncertainty (i.e., “surprise”).
shannon summary
see Potochnik2017on the role of “rampant andunchecked” idealizations in science
rrowrr
productively argue about theaptness of modeling tools for their intended purposes
aptness
the boom of researchrelying on FEP just highlights there is room for deductive systematization and physics-first approaches in life science theorizing
it's all good if activity and thinking is stimulated
FEP is like all other scientific principles in being truth-apt
apt to be true?
whatevertautologies do, they don’t explain
tautologies don't "explain"
free-energy theorists attempt an enormous vari-ety of derivations from FEP. In that sense, FEP may be said to play the role of a firstprinciple
a putative or postulated principle perhaps
just a characterization
just a characterization (that is, an accounting tool that is useful for some purposes)
The tautology here is deliberate
tautology, the anthropic principle
the whole point of[FEP]istounifyalladaptiveautopoieticandself-organizingbehaviorunderonesimpleimperative; avoid surprises and you will last longer [...]
or in other words the survivors we see because they last longer have avoided nasty surprises
atautology,astipulative definition
stipulative
Free-energy theorists may simply reject the idea that adequate scientific repre-sentation of life science phenomena must target the component parts and operationsand internal organization of mechanisms.
back to what comprises "explanatory power"
Mechanists wouldtherefore conclude that FEP lacks explanatory power
explanatory power for mechanists is something a teleological principle does not comprise
constrain the possible structures and configurations that might perform those oper-ations; but they are equally keen to emphasize that structural decompositions intomodeled components within a mechanism can also constrain the possible functionsand configurations performed
like the maximum entropy production principle might constrain either the thing that does the job, or how well the job can get done
By redescribing systems’capacities in terms of their functional properties and dispositions, functional analysisoffers scientists a way to tackle the target phenomenon. But it also offers the potentialfor prediction and explanation
sounds like my JMSJ paper topic
individuated
what does individuated mean?
whether and when functional accounts of bio-logical phenomena suffice
does teleology suffice
explanatory power
If only we could define THIS! (Explanatory Power to whose satisfaction?)
apparently at odds with mechanists’ emphasisthat life science phenomena should be explained by appeal to mechanisms, and thatadequate strategies for explanation in the life sciences should involve decomposingthese mechanisms into component parts and operations
reductionism vs. teleology
Stipulative definitions, likelivingsystemasanattractingsetinaphasespaceoradaptivebehaviorasbehaviorthatreducesaverage surprise, provide the bridge principles that connect theoretical predicates fromdifferent disciplines, and that allow free-energy theorists to attempt the deductionsneeded to claim reductions of other principles to FEP
yes stipulative definitions, nice word for self fulfilling definitions?
free-energy
the idea source ?https://hyp.is/RE4DxI47Eemsm4Oz870WsA/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibbs_free_energy
phylogenetic and ontogenetic trajectories
In biology, ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny. In organizing convection, phylogeny IS ontogeny.
Since attracting sets are subsets of classically predefined phase spaces,organicists deny the assumption that all living systems’ characteristic behavior isaptly represented with an attracting set
Yes if time is long, then the state space (Markov blanket) expands to include all other organisms (in lifetime) and species (in evolutionary time), and we are back to the game theory of contingent history.
historicallygrounded
yes time matters, lifetime and evolutionary time
recognition) densityq(Ψ,μ)
Is this a mapping? (is that what density is?) between the unknowable \Psi and some smaller (perhaps categorical recognition) perception vector \mu? But why isn't that just encompassed in M?
nternal parametersμ
μ was not defined. Also angle brackets <> (subscript q) are not defined.
Is the word "variational" carrying a load here? Do I need to study that word?
likelihoodp(D=dt+1|Ψψt+1,Aat,M) and prior densityp(Ψψt+1|M), which jointly specify the generativemodel “entailed by” the system’s phenotype
phenotype here is used very broadly to include M (which is not indexed as a function of time)
unsurprising
Minimized surprise is the steady state condition for nonequilibrium systems perhaps. Complacency?
the surprise of sampling some sensory outcome (or experiencing somesensory state) can be represented with the negative log probability:−logp(D=dt+1|at,M). This measure quantifies the improbability
"surprise" is a nice term for improbability, or I like "missing information" from A Farewell to Entropy book.
“are confined to a bounded subset of states and remain thereindefinitely”
but the Markov blanket grows and grows with time for systems with memory, redefining the state space actually, so this statement ending in "indefinitely" sounds way too woolly to be satisfying.
its epistemic status is unclear
polite doubt about free energy as a master scalar principle for everything
As a necessary condition for the reaction to occur at constant temperature and pressure, ΔG must be smaller than the non-PV (e.g. electrical) work, which is often equal to zero (hence ΔG must be negative
Sign of dG determines if a thing will happen spontaneously
Raymond Hide, whom I had met by chance during the last year of my PhD, told me of recent work by climatologist Paltridge [12] showing that the properties of Earth’s climate could be derived using the Principle of Maximum Entropy Production!
maximum entropy production principle - early citation
tropical convection induces a stationary equilibrium distribution.
" convection induces a stationary equilibrium distribution." ?
Induces?
In addition, this transition condition for the cellular automaton adds a stochastic component in its evolution, compared with a strictly Boolean ruleset
cumulus game of life stochastic game
onditioning for the common history byreplacing time delayed mutual information by a variantof Eq.(4) resolves this aparent paradox.
eliminate synchronization (infinite velocity of information flow)
xample, take a bi-variate time series (seeFig. 3) of the breath rate and instantaneous heart rate ofa sleeping human suffering from sleep apne
sleep apnea example. Heart rate ramps up to gasping episodes.
much of the common informa-tion is due to the common history
causality is tricky to isolate
Either one can study transfer entropy as a function of theresolution, or one can fix a resolution for the scope of astudy.
Here is the way I have wanted to measure macro-entropy without having it dominated by the micro (thermodynamic) entropy.
transfer entropy behaves like mutual information.If computationally feasible, the influence of a known com-mon driving forceZmay be excluded by conditioning theprobabilities under the logarithm toznas well
mutual information between including vs. excluding dependence of p on other processes
This is the central concept of this paper
transfer entropy, a measure of the information in a conditional dependence (like Granger causality?)
preferred path forward for advancing physics in EMC models is one in which innovations from the community are socialized and introduced through strong collaborative working relationships between developers/scientists at EMC and thosein the broader community
ok, but how?
In the numerical modeling community it is not uncommon for developers to be confounded when model innovations that look better “on paper” -or seem to perform betterin different modeling frameworks –do not increase overall skill when implemented in complex, highly nonlinear modeling systems
indeed
their report and recommendations
permissions denied, requested access
MEG provided their analysis
permission problems accessing this
GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain
a monsoon nudging domain
using the nudging/relaxation methodology first outlined in Klinker and Sardeshmukh (1992) and used subsequently by others including Douville et al. (2011) and Hall et al. (2013)
nudging references
To better understand the role of the vertical pressure gradient force, we rewrite Eq. (2) without approximation as
nonhydrostatic pressure definiton
shallow CAPE measures the integrated buoyancy for undiluted parcels only up to the midtroposphere
This gives control of the convection to lower troposphere (bottom heavy) adiabatic cooling by the 2nd vertical mode of w, but is not labeled an "inhibition" effect. Instead, a QE story about these simple algebraic equations' closure was preferred.
sensitivities have been examined
Holy moly that's a heap of citations
standard deviation equal to current uncertainty estimates for radiosonde vertical profiles
Here is the key: radiosonde "uncertainty" sets the magnitude, while vertical structure is here
Changes to MP produce a similar order-of-magnitude response in convective hydrologic cycle, dynamics, and latent heating as changes to IC
How can microphysics and thermodynamics be compared, if the changes are incommensurate (different units, etc.)?
Modes of vertical thermodynamic and wind variabilityover the Maritime Continent
tropical atmosphere vertical structure variability, see also (for representativeness error also) Fig. 11 of Mapes Ciesielski Johnson
Non-rotated PCs (left panels) and rotated components(right panels) for all variables at the Ranai upper-air sounding site.
About 5 DOFs in the vertical for all fields
Real or Artifact?
This question gets at the heart of statistical diagnosis of causal connections
Yet a few features appear to be robust, such as the presence of layers of mass convergence at the top of moist layers, extrema of the area-averaged vertical velocity at the top of the subcloud layer and in the midtroposphere, and minima around the trade inversion near 2 km.
Figure overlays in a ppt: https://miami.box.com/s/c3ss1m17a9th90jsnp75pmistdhn0g8x
The degree of agreement is rather good for this case, surprisingly so actually.
rather an understatement, perhaps !!
Horizontal wavenumber buoyancy flux spectra
moist (RH50): all scales convect
Any comprehensive theory for the mesoscale spectrum should account for the presence of intermittent but very broad band forcing of the mesoscale by latent heating
all scales convect
resonant triad interaction of two IGWs with a balanced vortex mode, in which the vortex catalyzes the transfer of energy from large- to small-wavelength IGWs
very specific mechanism
Moist processes primarily enhance the divergent part of the spectrum, which has a relatively shallow spectral slope that resembles −
moist compared to dry
scenario 2 would require a reconsideration of the cascade theory, as it implies that direct forcing of the mesoscale is important
yes
the authors have been unable to develop a simple explanation for why a −5/3 slope develops in the mesoscale range
still a mystery