- Apr 2019
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weather.rsmas.miami.edu weather.rsmas.miami.edu
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description
is it a "description", or a direction-of-causality presumption?
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time-scale of some chaotic, small-scale process is appreciably smaller than that of the large-scale
is this about space or time? woolly.
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energy
mechanical
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small
the key word here
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always showed development at the smallest scales
called a "uv catastrophe" in physics... only now are there starting to be information-theory and causality theory responses to this more general problem with causal reductionism... agents above, atoms below.
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the theory of CISK, as well as the representation of convection (Kuo 1965) that was implicitly based on it, has been an influential and lengthy dead-end road in atmospheric science
Boom
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Given F(A) for all A
Ha ha... this is somehow better than the "given the heating..." trope that this whole essay is railing against?
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account for
the causality presumptions so thick and deep here
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upward motion associated with a large-scale disturbance
do you mean adiabatic upward motion in the intercloud environment?
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compromised
like every balance statement does violence to causality
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E is a bulk precipitation efficiency
only within a certain favored back story... literally, here, it is a bulk shortcoming of latent heating to quite cancel adiabatic cooling
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virtually all extant simulations of convective clouds have proceeded in the ‘spin- down’ mode, in which convection is triggered by an aberration of the initial condition and thereafter uses the APE of the initial state, which is not resupplied
early "warm bubble" simulations
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phase speed associated with hear normal modes
N/m, yes go on
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for a = 0.9
what was a again? buried in math someplace -- is there a word? oh -relative humidity, just above
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The inescapable conclusion from all these analyses is that lurge-scale ascent in convecting atmospheres is associated with a reduction of temperature; i.e. with a positive effective static stability
why not look at observations? is it really inescapable? does it apply only to unconditional vertical motions (forcings)?
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an equatorial Kelvin wave
of single signed vertical structure, coming from somewhere (from where, if not forced by prior convection of that depth?)
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The subcloud- layer entropy is reduced under the enhanced convective downdraughts associated with the ascent phase of the wave; this is, in equilibrium, associated with a reduction of the free-atmosphere temperature
causality presumption contortions again
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very small
compared to what? why not look at observations?
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time-scale for clear air to subside through the troposphere, about 30 days
students, you get this?
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the conceptual simplifications inherent in statistical-equilibrium thinking will prove to be a boon to a new generation of tropical dynamicists
convective adjustment hasn't already been clear for a generation before 1974?
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due to large-scale processes only
Problematic causality over interpretation of a data result, see Fig.16 of Mapes 1997 JMSJ
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the elementary requirement that heating and temperature fluctuations must be positively correlated in order that disturbance energy be produced seems to have been overlooked here
But as the Stevens et al. comment paper shows, the present authors are overlooking observations
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The dominant thinking
Do they characterize the "dominant thinking" fairly, or is it a bit of a straw man? Please reply (so I can what relpy alerts look like).
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large-scale processes onl
This is not evidence that convection is responsive to "forcing" on these scales, as I showed here (figure 16 of Mapes 1997 JMSJ) https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/76/1/76_1_29/_pdf/-char/en
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met.nps.edu met.nps.edu
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co-variance between temperature and vertical motion
implicitly gesturing at d[KE]/dt = [w'b']
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what they characterize as a prevalent view of tropical convection
yeah characterizing "dominant" views is always debatable
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web.hypothes.is web.hypothes.is
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of last year
Please use calendar year in blog posts that will be searched far into the future.
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www.jstage.jst.go.jp www.jstage.jst.go.jpen2
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Fig. 16. Quasi-equilibrium test
"Quasi-equilibrium test" -- not causality evidence! This shows that QE can be acheived on these scales by the response of dynamics to heating, with no basis for inferring convection's responsiveness to a putative "forced" ascent.
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Quasi-equilibrium test
It shows that QE can be acheived on these scales by the response of dynamics to heating, with no basis for inferring convection's responsiveness to a putative "forced" ascent.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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intensity is assumed to be modulated by convective available potential energy (CAPE), while occurrence frequency is modulated by the ratio of convective inhibition (CIN)
Which is more important, available energy or triggering?
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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the sum of the Archimedean buoyancy and the buoyancy-induced pressure gradient acceleration, because this is the actual buoyancy acceleration
buoyancy acceleration, but how was the BPGF computed? It depends on geometry. Oh I see, they actually did an offline computation (Laplacian inversion) to compute the buoyancy-induced p', and then sampled it around the parcels.
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convective heating in the upper and lower troposphere is the same in the control run and, thus, cannot explain the differing convective sensitivities.
This is too simplistic. Because of the great depth of the radiative cooling (extending well above where latent heating can balance it), the mean state is cold aloft so that eddy temperature flux convergence can do the job of balancing it. That means the parcels have abundant buoyancy aloft, and are less sensitive to small changes in it. See The first half of the third point in the abstract of my Water's Two Height Scales,… https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/qj.49712757708
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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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By many estimates, convective entrainment is the leading source of error in global climate models
Everybody talks about (this aspect of) the weather but few do anything about it! Here is the ony new conceptual model for convection since the episodic mixing models of Raymond and Blyth, summarized in Raymond's "wiring diagrams"
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weather.rsmas.miami.edu weather.rsmas.miami.edu
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The preferred stratification established by the model convection depends on the treat-ment of precipitation and ice processes, and especially on the poorly-understood pro-cesses that determine mass flux in downdrafts associated with the evaporation ofprecipitation.
This test shows that responses to others' annotations do not appear in https://hypothes.is/users/brianmapes, only original annotations.
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- Mar 2019
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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Gravity Waves, Compensating Subsidence and Detrainment around Cumulus Clouds
great paper
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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A second annotation typed in
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Can one annotate an old pdf?
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At CSU, in the project's first phase, she is working with Nicholas Kedzuf, a master's student, to look at data and to establish a comprehensive inventory of ice particle properties. ("It's an absolute joy to work with such an excellent student," says Chiu.)
Go Nick!
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- Feb 2019
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Local file Local file
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detailed solutions have been presented for the case of a stably stratified fluidwith a linear density gradient
stratified environment
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Noteb y Sir Geoffrey Taylor
Note the "sir"
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TheheightinmetrestowhichsmokewillrisefromvariousSOURCES IN A WIND-FREE I.C.A.N. STANDARD ATMOSPHERE
predictions and application
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predictions made by comparing previous experimental data on unstratified fluidswith the present theory.
it works
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laboratory experiments
try it in the lab
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u (= F2/ W) vanishesvery close toxl — 2-8. This corresponds to the greatest height reached by the plumefluid. As this fluid from the plume spreads out sideways, most of it will fall back somedistance, but certainly not as far as the height corresponding with xx 2-125 atwhich the density difference first vanishes
overshoot and detrainment heights
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a simpler transfer assumption was madeby Taylor (1945) in the hope that it would represent the broad outlines of themechanics of a rising plume of buoyant air without the necessity for understandingin detail how the turbulent eddies mix the heated and the ambient air
Taylor the great giant of the field see footnote at end
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The present treatment is based on this assumption, which relates the inflow intothe edge of a convective plume to some characteristic velocity in the plume
Key entrainment assumption
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Two governing parameters are provided by the physical conditions of theproblem, F0 and G, and these must determine the scale of the motion
Only 2 things can matter, then wrangle units
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Three boundary conditions are required to determine a solution
strong inference from general considerations
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the vertical flux of buoyancy remains constant at all heights.
Here is the key constraint
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The conservation relations may then be written
area-perimeter ratio
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- Dec 2018
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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the swapping experiment
parcelwise
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percentage of cloudy parcels that cross the layer, which will be referred to as the crossing percentage
mass flux is 0 or 1 by crossing the layer
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We binned the parcels based on their buoyancy acceleration and vertical velocity at the bottom level right before they ascend to the next level.
before and after encountering the perturbed T' layer
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worrydream.com worrydream.com
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wind
Yes, and hit return -- no response
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playing
No sound, on a Mac in either Chrome or Safari Dec 2018
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3%–4% slowdown of the tropical circulation
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decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate.
method (decomp)
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taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions
They are easily observable with spaceborne instruments and offer a less uncertain view on the radiative fluxes than the cloudy regions (Pincus et al. 2015). Our SMF metric may therefore prove efficient in tracking the circulation changes in the present climate by analyzing satellite data records.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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Pages jumped from <7000 in 2011 and before to >10000 in 2013 and since.
Two issues per month since 2000. when pages crossed 4000.
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hypothes.is hypothes.is
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Both types of annotations appear when I log out. But my friend's annotations (on another page) are not visible to me. I don't understand groups, layers, and the lock icon that sometimes appears next to the word Public.
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Highlights
Created as highlight, then this text added as an edit
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Annotation
test: created from annotate icon
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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boreal summer stationary-wave amplitude (SWA) had a significantly positive trend during 1979–2013
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104009/meta#erl520543f1 observation
we define the SWA for each model as the variance of 925-hPa streamfunction at the latitude of the maximum stationary waves in that model. SWA is measured in stationary wave units (SWU), defined as 1013 m4 s−2. In this study, we use a 50-yr time length to compute the linear trend of SWA because this length is longer than most time periods of internal variability of atmospheric circulation.
c. Hydrological extremes To measure summer hydrological extremes, we count the number of days in a dry spell and the number of heavy-rainfall days in each summer. A dry spell is defined as an event of at least 3 consecutive days when daily precipitation is less than 1 mm, while a heavy-rainfall day is defined as a day when the precipitation exceeds the 99th percentile of daily precipitation in JJA during the period 1955–2005. We then count the number of dry-spell days and heavy-rainfall days at each grid point during JJA of each year.
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SWA to increasing climate forcing using 31 CMIP5 GCMs
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31 CMIP5 GCMs
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increased heavy-rainfall-day frequency over South Asia, the Indochinese Peninsula, and southern China (SA-EA), and to increased dry-spell-day frequency over the northwestern and central United States
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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models reasonably capture the temporal statistics
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benchmark for model evaluation
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most energetic during austral summer, facilitating interaction with the concurrent NPMM conditions
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(CMIP5) are used in this study to investigate further the SPMM and its role in ENSO predictability
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Pacific meridional mode, a thermodynamically coupled mode of variability, links extratropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric anomalies to the tropical Pacific
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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uggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.
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Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance.
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POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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High leakage periods are also related to reduced inland convective rainfall over southeastern Africa in austral summer
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we find Agulhas leakage variability to be related to a meridional shift and/or strengthening of the westerlies
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recreate a number of total velocity fields by modifying the eddying component to assess the dependence of leakage variability on the eddies.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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Future changes to annual frequency, LMI, and the latitude of LMI are evaluated using the downscaled tracks where large sample sizes
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large-scale environmental fields
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commonly applied cluster analysis: 1) explicitly simulated tracks
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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hypotheses
Three hypotheses for the CRE balance are considered:
The CRE balance results from a fortuitous coincidence.
Feedbacks among cloud albedo, large-scale circulation, and SST cause the net CRE to be similar in neighboring regions of active and suppressed convection.
Radiative heating of clouds causes medium and thin anvil cloud to persist longer than thick anvil, which causes the cloud population to have a neutral net CRE.
Our results are consistent with the cloud–circulation–SST feedback hypothesis 2 and show that earlier criticism of this hypothesis is not supported by observations. Future work should focus on testing these hypotheses further.
More on the latter: Since radiative heating extends the lifetime of anvils, but the effect is stronger for thin and medium clouds than for thick ones, Hartmann and Berry (2017) hypothesized that radiative heating could cause the cloud population to have a neutral net CRE.
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Shading from anvils causes cool anomalies in the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) of up to −0.6°C.
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life cycle of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), their associated anvil clouds, and their effects on the radiation balance
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from a geostationary satellite
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consistent with the hypothesis that the cancellation in CRE is caused by feedbacks among cloud albedo, large-scale circulation, and SST.
" if the SW and LW CRE are balanced as a result of some robust physical process, then it opens the possibility that such a process could maintain the balance in the future."
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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investigate the accuracy of the GCM-based NCAR CAM3.0 water vapor kernel
"In the upper troposphere, the observation-based C3M + AIRS longwave kernel is less (more) sensitive in the tropics (extratropics). Note that it is possible for differences to be caused by discrepancies in the radiative transfer models themselves (Soden et al. 2008), something that is not explored in this work."
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isolate the individual cloud, atmospheric, and surface property contributions to the variability of the radiation budget
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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nearly zero global average of broadband RH feedback is a result of spatial compensation and spectral compensation
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spectrally resolved relative humidity (RH) feedbacks for 16 GCMs that participated in CMIP5
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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improved winds and surface heat fluxes must go hand in hand with improved subseasonal and parameterized ocean processes. Implications
agenda - whole programme and getting it right for right reasons, not compensations
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Correcting FLOR’s climatological SST and wind stress biases via flux adjustment (FA) leads to weaker deep advective cooling of the ECT, which then erodes the upper-ocean thermal stratification, enhances vertical mixing, and excessively deepens the thermocline.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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monthly-scale advection
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upper-ocean heat budget
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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decline in cloudiness is steeper at 1200 UTC (0800 LT), when a trend of up to −6% decade−1 is observed over the central and eastern Amazon
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow bands of moisture originating in the tropics.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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The circulation of northward-flowing Atlantic Water at the surface and returning overflow water at depth is particularly manifested—and observed—at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge where the water masses are guided through narrow straits.
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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Jianping Duana,bxJianping DuanSearch for articles by this author, Lun LicxLun LiSearch for articles by this author, Zhuguo MaaxZhuguo MaSearch for articles by this author, Jan EsperdxJan EsperSearch for articles by this author, Ulf BüntgenexUlf BüntgenSearch for articles by this author, Elena XoplakifxElena XoplakiSearch for articles by this author, Dujuan ZhanggxDujuan ZhangSearch for articles by this author, Lily WanghxLily WangSearch for articles by this author, Hong YinixHong YinSearch for articles by this author, and Jürg Luterbacherf,j
How was author order set? Not alphabetical at all.
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Superposed epoch analysis (SEA)
"composite"
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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New to v4, uncertainties are calculated for each station series
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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circulation patterns in the Arctic: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic dipole (AD)
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Changes in the AO and AD are relatively minor contributing factors to the projected temperature and precipitation changes in the Arctic
Good honest confession of limits of mode studies
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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21 papers if I count right.
Dataset: 1 AGW oriented climate modeling work: 7 Model development/ evaluation: 3 Mode or branded phenomenon: 3 Ocean driven phenomena: 2; Volcano 1 Process oriented (clouds/rad) 3
Forcing 3, response 4,
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Relevant
hastening to justify
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- Nov 2018
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journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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The soil moisture effect, however, does not fully fit into the surface θe argument and provides additional control on monsoon rainfall by inducing regional circulation and rainfall patterns
hmmm link to fig
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