- Aug 2024
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www.swissre.com www.swissre.com
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Degradation ofecosystem services could be significantly slowed down or even reversed if the role ofbiodiversity and its full contribution to economic production were an integrated part ofdecisions made by governmental entities, companies, and other stakeholders (Paul et al2020)20
for - biodiversity - impact of monoculture diet
biodiversity - impact of monoculture diet - FAO study done before 2000 and often cited shows that 75% of the global diet comes from 12 plant and 5 animal food sources
to - stats - progress trap - monoculture - table of 12 plant and 5 animal species that make up 75% of world's diet - https://hyp.is/iznepFWoEe-umbNyOGVqrg/thefuturemarket.com/biodiversity
- progress trap - monoculture - instead of agrobiodiversity - examples of
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foodtechconnect.com foodtechconnect.com
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. for - progress trap - monoculture - instead of agrobiodiversity
from - Swiss RE Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) index report - https://hyp.is/Jqw9MlWpEe-DhnehMbtbjA/www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:a7fe3dca-c4d6-403b-961c-9fab1b2f0455/swiss-re-institute-expertise-publication-biodiversity-and-ecosystem-services.pdf
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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interactions between biodiversity, land, And climate
for - progress trap - zoonotic diseases - from transgressive biodiversity
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World Economic Forum, we're working very closely. They're also integrating planetary boundaries in, their global economy kind of policy agenda
for - World economic forum - integration planetary boundaries into their strategy
Concern - unintended consequence - The WEF is perceived by many to be an elitist organisation - who do not have the best interest off the people in mind - This could lead to potential reputational damage to the planetary boundary framework thru their association with it
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- Jul 2024
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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deep sea mining could start domino effects of which we are entirely unaware.
for - progress trap - deep sea metallic nodes produce oxygen - deep sea mining can disrupt
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paddyleflufy.substack.com paddyleflufy.substack.com
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If a baby born today and a baby born 30,000 years ago were swapped at birth, they would each grow up as normal people in their new cultures.
for - similar to - quote - Ronald Wright - progress trap - computer metaphor
similar to - quote - Ronald Wright - progress trap - computer metaphor - Ronald Wright's famous quote on the computer metaphor really gets to the essence of things - how much of the meta-poly-perma-crisis can be explained by the unprecedented mismatch between the rate of - biological evolution of our species - cultural evolution of our species - Culture is the major and possibly most signficant differentiator between the person alive 50,000 years ago and the one alive today.
reference - quote - Ronald Wright - computer metaphor - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goodreads.com%2Fwork%2Fquotes%2F321797-a-short-history-of-progress&group=world
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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26:30 Brings up progress traps of this new technology
26:48
question How do we shift our (human being's) relationship with the rest of nature
27:00
metaphor - interspecies communications - AI can be compared to a new scientific instrument that extends our ability to see - We may discover that humanity is not the center of the universe
32:54
Question - Dr Doolittle question - Will we be able to talk to the animals? - Wittgenstein said no - Human Umwelt is different from others - but it may very well happen
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species have culture - Marine mammals enact behavior similar to humans
- Unknown unknowns will likely move to known unknowns and to some known knowns
36:29
citizen science bioacoustic projects - audio moth - sound invisible to humans - ultrasonic sound - intrasonic sound - example - Amazonian river turtles have been found to have hundreds of unique vocalizations to call their baby turtles to safety out in the ocean
41:56
ocean habitat for whales - they can communicate across the entire ocean of the earth - They tell of a story of a whale in Bermuda can communicate with a whale in Ireland
43:00
progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - examples - examples - poachers or eco tourism can misuse
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progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - policy
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whale protection technology - Kim Davies - University of New Brunswick - aquatic drones - drones triangulate whales - ships must not get near 1,000 km of whales to avoid collision - Canadian government fines are up to 250,000 dollars for violating
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environmental regulation - overhaul for the next century - instead of - treatment, we now have the data tools for - prevention
56:40 - ecological relationship - pollinators and plants have co-evolved
1:00:26
AI for interspecies communication - example - human cultural evolution controlling evolution of life on earth
Tags
- progress trap - AI applied to interspecies communications
- ecological relationships - pollinators and plants co-evolved
- interspecies communication - umwelt
- - whale communication - span the entire ocean
- whale protection - bioacoustic and drones
- AI for interspecies communication - example - human cultural evolution controlling evolution of life on earth
- citizen science bioacoustics
- metaphor - interspecies communication - AI is like a new scientific instrument
- progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - examples - poachers - ecotourism
- environmental overhaul - treatment to prevention
- question - How do we shift our relationship with the rest of nature? - ESP research objective
- progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - policy
Annotators
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allenj.substack.com allenj.substack.com
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for - progress trap - AI -
article details - title - Hollow, world! (Part 1 of 5) - author - James Allen - date - 10 July, 2024 - publication - substack - self link - https://allenj.substack.com/p/hollow-world-part-1-of-5
summary James Allen provides an insightful description of ultra-anthropomorphic AI, AI that attempts to simulate an entire, whole human being.
In short, he points out the fundamental distinction between the real experience of another human being, and a simulation of one. In so doing, he gets to the heart of what it is to be human.
An AI is a simulation of a human being. No matter how realistic it's responses and actions, it is not evolved out of biology. I have no doubts that scientists are hard at work trying to make a biological AI. The distinction becomes fuzzier then.
Current AI cannot possibly simulate the experience of being in a fragile and mortal body and all that this entails. If an AI robot says it understands joy or pain, that statement isn't built on the combined exteroception and interoception of being in a biological body, rather, it is based on many linguistic statements it has assimilated.
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neoclassical Economist about you know growth can be totally decoupled from 00:45:45 Material use
for - progress trap - abstraction - the ECONOMY! - abstracted and separated from nature
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I don't really understand what they think uh what it is um if it's not you know 00:45:20 how resources are allocated and um the the transformation of commod you know raw material into finished goods and stuff all that takes energy it all takes material
for - progress trap - real dangers from - abstraction and siloing
progress trap - real dangers from - abstraction and siloing - Business processes create workers who live in abstract, symbolic worlds, never seeing the consequences of their symbolic manipulations - At the end of the day, the abstract, symbolic finance industry worker gets a fat salary and lives comfortably, whilist playing with abstractions of processes they are contributing to which they have no sensory information on - the separation of producer from consumer is yet another huge abstraction that cleaves the gestalt into pieces that we cannot see - ANTIDOTE to this - de-abstraction - re-synthesize - Processes have been fragmented and split apart - We need to find ways for people to re-synthesize and assemble the pieces back together again in order to - see and experience the whole picture
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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in the past these collapses of civilizations were local and people could migrate a little further on and rebuild but the chances of of that are gone now i mean we have to we have to uh to to 01:03:18 uh get right with what we have because it's all we have you know we we all all those bets we placed when our ancestors invented civilization they all rest on one high stakes throw which is 01:03:32 now
for - progress trap - modernity can't run away anywhere from its ruins
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some ice ages broke up in a matter of decades or even a few years suddenly
for - progress trap - planetary tipping points - rapid climate destabilization
reference - Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past - https://phys.org/news/2024-02-ice-cores-documentation-rapid-antarctic.html
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does agriculture become a 00:51:16 progress trap has it been a progress trap well i think i think in a sense it has
for - progress trap - Agriculture appears to be a progress trap - Ronald Wright
argument - progress trap - Agriculture appears to be a progress trap - Ronald Wright - The early progress traps have been comparatively small in scale - During the stone age, there were no more than a few million people alive (3 to 5 million?) and - they destroyed all the big game where humans lived - The Sumerians, with a population of around one million people salted up and destroyed the fertile land of Southern Iraq - Now we have 8 billion people and a third of them are starving - Our continuous technology development is what enables us to stave off the day of reckoning but - we are losing a Scotland-size worth of topsoil every year to - soil erosion - urban sprawl - We still face the possibility of collapse - Our species has existed for 5 to 6 million years and - civilization is an experiment that has only emerged about 10,000 years ago - It's still very possible for the experiment to fail
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we've achieved a level of prosperity for a huge number of people that was not typical of the past i mean most countries have a big middle class as well as an extremely wealthy upper 00:50:00 class but the number of people in abject poverty in the world today living on less than two dollars a day is greater than the entire population of the world 00:50:13 only 100 years ago so that's not progress
for - statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty
statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty - modern civilization has - a huge middle class - a small elite class - a huge impoverished class - The absolute number of people living on less than 2 dollars a day is less than the entire population of humans only 100 years ago
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that's part of the logic of agriculture isn't it i mean you have a lot of work to do yeah a lot of people you know but there again you're you're in a progress trap or or a treadmill that you need more children 00:48:57 so you can work more land and then that more land provides more food so you have yet more children
for - progress trap - the agricultural-large family positive feedback loop
progress trap - the agricultural-large family positive feedback loop - Interesting to compare modern vs agricultural societies - Populations are dropping in most western countries around the contemporary world, yet - traditional agricultural societies had large families to tend to large amount of agricultural work - There is a progress trap potential with encouraging many large families with a limited land resource: - If you have larger families, you can cultivate more land - If you cultivate more land, you can have even larger family - until you reach a point when the land has been exhausted and you are now forced to reduce the population
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do we have 00:46:13 examples of civilizations um that really accepted limits
for - progress trap - cultures that avoided progress trap of population explosion - Tahiti - via infanticide
progress trap - cultures that avoided progress trap of population explosion - Tahiti - via infanticide
- Tahitians practiced population control via
- infanticide
- It was ok to kill a newborn baby before it drew its first breath, as it was not considered a person until it drew the first breath
- advanced Eroticism - separating sexual activity from reproduction
- infanticide
- Tahitians practiced population control via
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he myth that progress will go on forever and will everything will get bigger and better and we don't have to control our numbers or demand on nature because we will always find a way to make it work we have to break out of that 00:45:21 mindset
for - progress trap - dangerous mythology
progress trap - dangerous mythology - We subscribe to a dangerous myth that: - progress will go on forever and - everything will get bigger and better and - we don't have to control our numbers - or our demand on nature - because we will always find a way to make it work
- We have to break out of that mindset
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so there's an example perhaps of a very good 00:44:17 agricultural system that is sustainable as long as you don't let the population get out of hand and you could say the same probably of rice paddy cultivation in asia
for - progress trap - agriculture that could work - historical terraced cultivation in Peru and China
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they feel incredibly resentful that they have not benefited from the the wealth generated 00:38:07 from by this uh system that was once uh uh promised them so much uh and so i i i think you know there and that's just one example among many uh in in the less prosperous parts of the world you could 00:38:21 you'd see many more
for - progress trap - inequality - resentment
progress trap - inequality - resentment - rapid emergence of the far-right and populus - Indeed we see so much resentment everywhere. For example, the far-right and populus could only emerge so rapidly because of such resentment of being left behind.
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if we fail to control our numbers and our appetites well then yes our society will start to to crash in a similar way to that of 00:35:32 easter island only on a worldwide scale and that means the whole industrial civilization will break down and 00:35:45 our descendants will essentially be uh savages to use that term very advisably and savages in the sense that they will have lost 00:35:58 the fruits of civilization and hate us
for - progress trap - dark futures scenario - like Easter Island but on a global scale
comment - The potential global breakdown of global industrialized society, rupturing supply chains so that our highly interdependent world becomes the very Achilles Heel that hastens its demise is chilling - It could mean a huge disruption to the most important aspect of civilization - the continuing accruing and inter-generational transmission of knowledge - It would be catastrophic to lose that, but it is entirely possible - As Wright himself famously said, to use a computer metaphor, we humans are like 50,000 year old hardware, running modern software - By that, he meant that our cognitive physiology (brain and sensory processing system) has not changed for tens of thousands of years, yet cultural evolution happens at exponentially faster rates, so much so that our biological systems are not adapted to keep up with the pace, and that spells disaster - When we no longer have the sensory or cognitive apparatus to sense danger, and we are offloading that to AI, we are in an extremely vulnerable situation
progress trap - Gedanken - Think of our ancestors from 50,000 years ago. - What Wright is saying with his metaphor is that if that child from 50,000 years ago were transported by a time machine to modernity, (s)he would have little problem integrating into modern society - LIKEWISE, if we lose all the knowledge fruits of accumulated over so many thousands of years, it would be like being born into a human tribe 50,000 years ago. - We would likely still have language, but all our technology may have to start from scratch!
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it's a very tough one for a lot of people to make because nobody wants to think there are limits like that 00:32:14 nobody wants to think that there's not going to be enough to go around
for - progress trap - habits of thinking - limits - liberty
progress trap - habits of thinking - limits - liberty - Technology has provided us with ever increasing types and scales of liberty - We cannot imagine taking away those liberties!
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one of the things i suggested in a short history of progress is that 00:30:18 one of our problems even though we're very clever as a species we're not wise
for - key insight - progress trap - A Short History of Progress - we are clever but NOT wise!
key insight - progress trap - A Short History of Progress - we are clever but NOT wise! - In other words - Intelligence is FAR DIFFERENT than wisdom
new memes - We have an abundance of intelligence and a dearth of wisdom - A little knowledge is dangerous, a lot of knowledge is even more dangerous
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easter island
for - progress trap - archeology - Easter Island
progress trap - archeology - Easter Island - The archeology tells the fascinating story of the progress trap that Eastern Island ancestors created. - Easter Island is desolate and only 64 square miles total - It is located 2,000 miles (3218 km) from the nearest landmass of South America - Archeologists trying to piece together the stone monoliths of Easter Island found pollen samples in the crater lakes on the island, proving that the place was once a thriving forest - By the time the first Europeans landed (the Dutch) on Easter Island, it was just grassy hills - How did it go from a lush forest land to a grass land? - The layers of pollen samples told a story - The aboriginal polynesians that the Dutch explorers encountered arrived about 1,000 years earlier - They cut down the forest, grew their population and used trees in many ways, including to transport the huge stone monoliths that paid respect to their ancestors - The original people multiplied then separated into separate warring tribes - The environment was devastated as the logging destroyed the forest and all the abundant ecosystem that provided for their sustenance - This created severe erosion and the soil became impoverished - The tribes collapses into warfare and cannibalism
progress trap - Easter Island - Sumeria etc - lesson - don't romanticize our ancestors - Human groups have continuously sabotaged themselves through overexploitation and lack of foresight - Progress traps have been a constant part of our species for a long, long time
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you should in theory be able to make a 00:21:08 civilization live on the interest from natural capital rather than eating into the capital itself
for - quote - metaphor - progress trap - live off the interest, not the principal of nature - Ronald Wright
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example is weaponry
for - progress trap - example - weapons leading to nuclear weapons
progress trap - example - weapons leading to nuclear weapons - These are the most ironic inventions of civilization - We spend significant percentages of our budgets maintaining and escalating them, meanwhile, we all know we cannot use them as it would mean billions would die
quote progress trap - nuclear weapons - When you're talking nuclear weapons that can never be used you're investing in something that's completely useless - that you're maybe burying in the ground in the form of missile silos or - you're putting into submarines or - into aircraft or missiles - You can never use these things and they are draining off the surplus that might otherwise be used into - wealth redistribution and into - long-term sustainability
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the progress trap and the pyramid scheme are not all that different
for - adjacency - progress trap - pyramid scheme
adjacency - between - progress trap - pyramid scheme - adjacency relationship - the pyramid sales scheme works as long as you can - continue to draw in new investors and new buyers - you concentrate the wealth upwards - you're not actually making real wealth - you're simply taking the wealth from the rubes who are coming in, in order to pay off the people who invested earlier to make it seem like it's a sustainable enterprise when it isn't (ponzi scheme) - Unfortunately, civilizations in their relationship to nature seem to follow that pattern - They expand the base and then when the base can't be expanded anymore - then all the environmental problems that have been hidden by constant expansion suddenly come back and hit them in the face - And those environmental problems of course cause social problems - They very often cause revolutions and wars because - suddenly people realize the pie is not getting bigger so therefore they become discontented with the small slice that they're getting, - unless they're people at the top of the pyramid - So it's a pyramid in the sense of a social pyramid too
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civilization a progress trap
for - progress trap - civilization itself is one
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another example would be um the internal combustion engine
for - progress trap - example - internal combustion engine / fossil fuels
progress trap - example - internal combustion engine / fossil fuels - This is one of my favorite examples. - Nobody could foresee that the ICE burning fossil fuels could lead us to destabilize Earth's entire climate system
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a seductive trail of successes that leads to a catastrophic end
for - definition - progress trap - Ronald Wright
definition - progress trap - A seductive trail of successes that leads to a catastrophic end - Ronald Wright - defined in his book "A Short History of Progress"
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the really big progress traps uh come with with the invention of 00:07:20 agriculture and i i mentioned the first full-blown civilization in the old world the sumerians who perfected the art of irrigation 00:07:33 in what is now southern iraq
for - progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization
progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization - the really big progress traps uh come with with the invention of agriculture and - i mentioned the first full-blown civilization in the old world the sumerians who perfected the art of irrigation in what is now southern iraq and - for for several centuries everything went really well - They had built canals and ran the water onto the desert and were able to - raise more and more crops and - expand their farmland and - expand their population and - their cities got bigger - their numbers got greater but - what they didn't know is that the kind of irrigation they were practicing - was causing the land to get saltier and saltier - and after a number of centuries they suddenly saw their farm meals declining because of salinity - and they had to switch to crops that could tolerate more salt - and then eventually they ended up producing only about one quarter of the food that they'd been able to produce when they started -and the civilization collapsed - So they had walked into what i call in my book a progress trap - and this is where the myth of progress is so seductive - You do something that in the short run produces obvious benefits so you're getting this positive feedback from some new invention, whether it's - a new way to drive mammoth over a cliff or - it's a new way to expand your farm base through irrigation - but there's a hidden cost down the road which is often hard to foresee
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myths are not necessarily untrue they're usually 00:03:33 partly true the danger lies in the part that isn't true and um so it it's partly true we have
for - quote - myths - Ronald Wright - adjacency - myths - perspectival knowing - emptiness - progress trap
Quote - Myths - Ronald Wright - (see below) - Myths are not necessarily untrue. They're usually partly true. The danger lies in the part that isn't true.
Comment. - What a great little sentence! - From this perspective, so many things that people claim as "true" are actually myths.
adjacency - between - myths - progress traps - perspectival knowing - emptiness - adjacency relationship - Myths emerge out of perspectival knowing of reality (Vervaeke) - The emptiness of reality is in stark contrast to reductionist thinking which is always relatively incomplete in comparison - This leads to the emergence of progress traps
Tags
- progress trap - example - internal combustion engine / fossil fuels
- progress trap - dark futures scenario - like Easter Island but on a global scale
- adjacency - myths - perspectival knowing - progress trap - emptiness
- key insight - progress trap - A Short History of Progress - we are clever but NOT wise!
- progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization
- progress trap - agriculture that could work - historical terraced cultivation in Peru and China
- progress trap - cultures that avoided progress trap of population explosion - Tahiti - via infanticide
- definition - progress trap - Ronald Wright
- quote - progress trap - example - nuclear weapons
- new meme - a little knowledge is dangerous but a lot of knowledge is even more dangerous
- progress trap - dangerous mythology - Ronald Wright
- adjacency - pyramid scheme - progress trap
- progress trap - habits of thinking - limits - liberty
- progress trap - Gedanken
- progress traps - danger with romanticizing the past
- quote - myths - Ronald Wright
- quote - metaphor - progress trap - live off the interest, not the principal of nature - Ronald Wright
- progress trap - inequality - resentment - rapid emergence of the far-right and populus
- progress trap - planetary tipping points - rapid climate destabilization
- new meme - we have an abundance of intelligence and a dearth of wisdom
- progress trap - example - weapons leading to nuclear weapons
- progress trap - the agricultural-large family positive feedback loop
- progress trap - civilization itself is one
- progress trap - archeology - Easter Island
- statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty
- - progress trap - modernity can't run away anywhere from its ruins
- progress trap - Agriculture appears to be a progress trap - Ronald Wright
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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Is it better for the people that are using it? No.
for - progress trap - example - cell phone usage
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If we are having narrowly defined goals, as we discussed last time, that can be achieved while externalizing harm in other places, and we do a lot of that, and we look at all of the goal achieving and not all the externalities, we can call that progress.
for - progress trap - achieving narrowly defined goals with externalities
progress trap - achieving narrowly defined goals with externalities - Within the field of progress traps, - progress is the focus on intended consequences and - progress traps are the unintended consequences reference - Ronald Wright - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=Ronald+Wright
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for - podcast - great simplification - Nate Hagen - guest - Daniel Schmachtenberger - topic progress
Tags
- progress trap - interview - Daniel Schamtenberger
- progress trap - achieving narrowly defined goals with externalities
- progress trap - example - cell phone usage
- podcast - great simplification - Nate Hagen - guest - Daniel Schmachtenberger - topic progress
- reference - Ronald Wright
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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stat in use more than 10 years increases your risk of developing insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes which are two primary drivers of heart 00:26:07 disease
for - progress trap - statins
progress trap - statins - heart health - Long term studies show that the mainstream prescription of statins to lower LDL levels over 10 year period increases risk for: - insulin resistance and - type 2 diabetes - both of which are primary drivers of heart disease - hence, Statins are a progress trap
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- Jun 2024
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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for - progress trap - AI - threat of superintendence - interview - Leopold Aschenbrenner - former Open AI employee - from -. YouTube - review of Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay on Situational Awareness - https://hyp.is/ofu1EDC3Ee-YHqOyRrKvKg/docdrop.org/video/om5KAKSSpNg/
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a dictator who wields the power of superintelligence would command concentrated power unlike 00:50:45 anything we've ever seen
for - key insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - dictator controlling superintelligence
meet insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - locked in dictatorship controlling superintelligence - millions of AI controlled robotic law and enforcement agents could police their populace - Mass surveillance would be hypercharged - Dictator loyal AI agents could individually assess every single citizen for descent with near perfect lie detection sensor - rooting out any disloyalty e - Essentially - the robotic military and police force could be wholly controlled by a single political leader and - programmed to be perfectly obedient and there's going to be no risks of coups or rebellions and - his strategy is going to be perfect because he has super intelligence behind them - what does a look like when we have super intelligence in control by a dictator ? - there's simply no version of that where you escape literally - past dictatorships were not permanent but - superintelligence could eliminate any historical threat to a dictator's Rule and - lock in their power - If you believe in freedom and democracy this is an issue because - someone in power, - even if they're good - they could still stay in power - but you still need the freedom and democracy to be able to choose - This is why the Free World must Prevail so - there is so much at stake here that - This is why everyone is not taking this into account
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this is why it's such a trap which is why like we're on this train barreling down this pathway which is super risky
for - progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity
progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity - Rationale: we will have to equip many systems with AI - including military systems - Already connected to the internet - AI will be embedded in every critical piece of infrastructure in the future - What happens if something goes wrong? - Now there is an alignment failure everywhere - We will potentially have superintelligence within 3 years - Alignment failures will become catastrophic with them
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getting a base model to you know make money by default it may well learn to lie to commit fraud to deceive to hack to seek power because 00:47:50 in the real world people actually use this to make money
for - progress trap - AI - example - give prompt for AI to earn money
progress trap - AI - example - instruct AI to earn money - Getting a base model to make money. By default it may well learn - to lie - to commit fraud - to deceive - to hack - to seek power - because in the real world - people actually use this to make money - even maybe they'll learn to - behave nicely when humans are looking and then - pursue more nefarious strategies when we aren't watching
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whoever controls superintelligence will possibly have enough power to seize control from 00:35:14 pre superintelligence forces
for - progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario
progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario - Whoever is the first to control superintelligence will possibly have enough power to - seize control from pre superintelligence forces - even without the robots small civilization of superintelligence would be able to - hack any undefended military election television system and cunningly persuade generals electoral and economically out compete nation states - design new synthetic bioweapons and then - pay a human in Bitcoin to synthetically synthesize it
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military power and Technology progress have been tightly linked historically and with extraordinarily rapid technological 00:34:11 progress will come military revolutions
for - progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction
progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction - The podcaster's excitement seems to overshadow any concern of the tragic unintended consequences of weapons even more powerful than nuclear warheads. - With human base emotions still stuck in the past and our species continued reliance on violence to solve problems, more powerful weapons is not the solution, - indeed, they only make the problem worse - Here is where Ronald Wright's quote is so apt: - We humans are running modern software on 50,000 year old hardware systems - Our cultural evolution, of which AI is a part of, is happening so quickly, that - it is racing ahead of our biological evolution - We aren't able to adapt fast enough for the rapid cultural changes that AI is going to create, and it may very well destroy us
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this is where we can see the doubling time of the global economy in years from 1903 it's been 15 years but after super intelligence what happens is it going to be every 3 years is it going be every five is it going to 00:33:22 be every year is it going to be every 6 months I mean how crazy is the growth going to be
for - progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries
progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries - The podcaster does not consider the ramifications of the potential disastrous impact of such economic growth if not managed properly
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AGI level factories are going to shift from going to human run to AI directed using human physical labor soon to be fully being run by swarms of human level robots
for - progress trap - AI and human enslavement?
progress trap - human enslavement? - Isn't what the speaker is talking about here is that - AI will be the masters and - humans will become slaves?
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super intelligence is going to be like this across many domains it's going to be 00:31:42 able to find exploits in human code too subtle for humans to notice and it's going to be able to generate code too complicated for any human to understand even if the model spent decades trying to explain it
for - progress trap - superintelligence threat
progress trap - superintelligence threat - super intelligence is going to be far beyond our cognitive capabilities across many domains. For example, - it's going to be able to find exploits in human code too subtle for humans to notice - it's going to be able to generate code too complicated for any human to understand - even if the model spent decades trying to explain it - How do we entrust ourselves to a superintelligence that is so far beyond us? If it thinks we are expendable, it could easily find our weaknesses and bring about extinction
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nobody's really pricing this in
for - progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project!
progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project! - Civlization's journey has to create more and more powerful tools for human beings to use - but this tool is different because it can act autonomously - It can solve problems that will dwarf our individual or even group ability to solve - Philosophically, the problem / solution paradigm becomes a central question because, - As presented in Deep Humanity praxis, - humans have never stopped producing progress traps as shadow sides of technology because - the reductionist problem solving approach always reaches conclusions based on finite amount of knowledge of the relationships of any one particular area of focus - in contrast to the infinite, fractal relationships found at every scale of nature - Supercomputing can never bridge the gap between finite and infinite - A superintelligent artifact with that autonomy of pattern recognition may recognize a pattern in which humans are not efficient and in fact, greater efficiency gains can be had by eliminating us
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having an automated AI research engineer by 2027 00:05:14 to 2028 is not something that is far far off
for - progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher
progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher - This is a serious concern that must be debated - An AI researcher that does research on itself has no moral compass and can encode undecipherable code into future generations of AI that provides no back door to AI if something goes wrong. - For instance, if AI reached the conclusion that humans need to be eliminated in order to save the biosphere, - it can disseminate its strategies covertly under secret communications with unbreakable code
Tags
- progress trap - superintelligence threat
- AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - dictator controlling superintelligence
- progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario
- progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity
- progress trap - AI - example - give prompt for AI to earn money
- progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of exponential AI research by AGI agents
- progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher - concerns
- progress trap - AI and human enslavement?
- progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries
- progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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to your point for 00:13:46 every problem there's going to be a solution and AI is going to have it and then for every solution for that there's going to be a new problem
for - AI - progress trap - nice simple explanation of how progress traps propagate
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this is more of a unfair competition 00:10:36 issue I think as a clearer line than the copyright stuff
for - progress trap - Generative AI - copyright infringement vs Unfair business practice argument
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now there's going to be even more AI music pouring 00:09:04 into platforms which saturated Market in an already oversaturated Market
for - progress trap - AI music - oversaturated market
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deluding the general royalty pool
for - progress trap - AI music - dilution of general royalty pool - due to large volume
Tags
- progress trap - AI music - oversaturated market
- progress trap - AI music - dilution of general royalty pool - due to large volume
- progress trap - Generative AI - copyright infringement vs Unfair business practice argument
- AI - progress trap - nice simple explanation of how progress traps propagate
Annotators
URL
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www.yalelawjournal.org www.yalelawjournal.org
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These arguments are meant to present a cautionary tale of unintended consequences.
For - progress trap - AI - Generative AI - IP - Yale Law Journal
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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for - progress trap - AI music - critique - Folia Sound Studio - to - P2P Foundation - Michel Bauwens - Commons Transition Plan - Netarchical Capitalism - Predatory Capitalism
to - P2P Foundation - Michel Bauwens - Commons Transition Plan - Netarchical Capitalism - Predatory Capitalism https://hyp.is/o-Hp-DCAEe-8IYef613YKg/wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Commons_Transition_Plan
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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Tobacco, alcohol, processed foods and fossil fuels ‘kill 2.7m a year in Europe’
for - wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization
wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization - many people become desensitized to bad news
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let's face it if you create a traumatized child you then have 00:44:39 to have the capacity for dealing with the traumatized child so it's not just out of benevolence to him but also that it's a lot easier to be in relationship 00:44:51 with someone for the rest of your life that a that you haven't damaged
for - progress trap - parenting - traumatizing our children - Nora Bateson - quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - traumatizing our children
quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - traumatizing our children (see below) - Let's face it, - If you create a traumatized child - you then have to have the capacity - for dealing with the traumatized child - So it's not just out of benevolence to him but also that - it's a lot easier to be in relationship with someone for the rest of your life that - you haven't damaged
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the solution to the consequence is likely to perpetuate the actual problem
for - quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - book - Combining
quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - book - Combining - (see below)
- In the singularity of its mission to hastily fix one malady at a time
- the cure may be more harmful than the wound
- Most identified problems as they have emerged
- are really the consequence or symptoms of other conditions
- The solution to the consequence is likely to perpetuate the actual problem
- In the singularity of its mission to hastily fix one malady at a time
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what's the point what am i g to get out of this it's the same question actually
for - question - How to respond when asked what's the point or what's in it for me? - adjacency - what's the point? - what's in it for me? - human attention - progress traps
question - How to respond when asked what's the point or what's in it for me? - When these questions pop up, - it can be a good opportunity to engage the other in deeper dialogue to reveal deeper complexity
adjacency - between - questions - what's in it for me? - what's the point? - human attention - progress trap - complexity - emptiness - adjacency relationship - These questions come up a lot - and they indicate a normative human tendency: - When we focus attention on what we consider salient in our dynamic, constructed salience landscape - at the same time it defocuses our attention from the rest of the field the salient feature occurs within - In this sense, overemphasize on these questions could reveal a dependency on oversimplification - of the complexity inherent all every life situation - Remember that emptiness, with its pillars of - intertwingledness and - change - pervades everything, everywhere and everytime - and such continuous oversimplification is tantamount to - ignoring the empty nature of reality and - leads to progress traps
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you can take a lot more than you are and have a lot more information
for - adjacency - open source - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - objective - Nora Bateson comment on more information - diversity - Indyweb/Indranet - progress trap mitigation
adjacency - between - Nora Bateson comment - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping<br /> - open source - progress trap mitigation - Indyweb/Indranet
- adjacency relationship
- When Nora talks about the
- oversimplified,
- reductionist
- problem-solving approach that most of modernity employs to tackle wicked problems,
- it boils down to oversimplification.
- There are usually far more causes and conditions to a problem than are known to construct the solution
- In Deep Humanity praxis, this is how we get into progress traps, the shadow side of progress
- The Stop Reset Go complexity mapping system is designed to reveal greater information by
- creating a space for diverse perspectives to systematically engage in addressing the same wicked problem
- This system must be open source in order to create the space for maximum diversity
- The Stop Reset Go process is specifically designed as a workspace for diversity for the purpose of
- mitigating progress traps and
- helping find more effective ways to address wicked problems
- This is done by using Trailmark Markin notation within the Indyweb/Indranet people-centered, interpersonal software ecosystem
- When Nora talks about the
- adjacency relationship
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that causality is not singular and so if you address a problem 00:11:06 that's created by a multiple causal process with a singular response you don't actually do anything but make it worse
for - quote, key insight - progress trap - Nora Bateson
quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - Nora hits the head of the nail with this observation - There are always multiple causes to one result - and by addressing only one cause, we cannot solve the problem, but in fact - allow it to continue and often make it worse - This is essentially another way of stating the teachings of millenia of Eastern philosophy, - that the universe is - infinitely interconnected - and its inherent nature of continuous transformation - Therefore, any state, which might be recognized as a problem state - is the result of many different causes and conditions coalescing
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that first order 00:10:10 response does not take into account the next and the next and the next order of consequences
for - progress trap - Nora Bateson
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there are many um and that that pulls us into 00:00:26 reaction mode that has been long steeped in industrial responsiveness which is to the first order
for - quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson
quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - (see below) - it's really easy to get distracted by the alarms that are ringing - and like you said, there are many that pulls us into reaction mode - that has been long steeped in industrial responsiveness - which is to the first order - that is, if something is happening we want to stop that thing from happening - whatever it is, whether it's - a refugee crisis or - a nuclear war threat or a this or a that - and that first order response does not take into account - the next and the next and the next order of consequences - so it's a kind of thinking that is very much appropriate for - engineering, - for building machines - but it's not appropriate for complex living systems
adjacency - between - Nora Bateson comment on first order industrial responsiveness - progress trap - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - Deep Humanity - progress trap - emptiness/shunyata - adjacency relationship - What Nora is saying is articulated within the Deep Humanity praxis using the language of progress traps - Dan O'Leary - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=dan+o%27leary - Ronald Wright - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=ronald+wright - which are the unintended consequences of progress - Deep Humanity praxis relates progress traps to the intertwingled Eastern philosophical ideas of - emptiness (shunyata) - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=emptiness - dependent arising and - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=dependent+arising - interdependent origination - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=interdependent+origination - In the context of the Stop Reset Go complexity mapping process, - to be integrated into the Indyweb / Indranet web 3 software ecosystem, - is designed to map multiple perspectives of how to solve a problem - so that we can see the many different solutions and avoid simply adopting a first order response solution - in so doing, it integrates complexity into our problem solving process and helps to mitigate - future progress traps in our solutions - The Indyweb / Indranet is a technology ecosystem designed to reflect the two pillars of emptiness: - (evolutionary) change and - interdependent origination / intertwingularity, - reflecting a universe that is fractally connected in all - dimensions and - scales - Stop Reset Go will be integrated into the Indyweb/Indranet as a specific Markin notation.
Tags
- progress trap - parenting - traumatizing our children - Nora Bateson
- progress trap - Nora Bateson
- quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson
- quote, key insight - progress trap - Nora Bateson
- adjacency - Nora Bateson comment on first order industrial responsiveness - progress trap - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - Deep Humanity - progress trap - emptiness/shunyata
- quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - traumatizing our children
- adjacency - open source - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - objective - Nora Bateson comment on more information - diversity - Indyweb/Indranet - progress trap mitigation
- adjacency - questions - what's in it for me? - what's the point? - human attention - progress trap - complexity - emptiness
- quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - book - Combining
- question - How to respond when asked what's the point or what's in it for me?
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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We talk about what is progress, the history of progress, who gets to write the progress 00:01:18 narrative and whether progress itself actually means betterment for society,
for - progress - progress trap
Tags
Annotators
URL
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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for - progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol
progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol Abstract - Low-calorie sweeteners are widely used sugar substitutes in processed foods with presumed health benefits. - Many low-calorie sweeteners are - sugar alcohols that also - are produced endogenously, - albeit at levels - over 1000-fold lower than observed following - consumption as a sugar substitute.
conclusion - Xylitol is associated with incident MACE risk. - Moreover, xylitol both - enhanced platelet reactivity and - thrombosis potential in vivo. - Further studies examining the cardiovascular safety of xylitol are warranted.
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Many low-calorie sweeteners are sugar alcohols that also are produced endogenously, albeit at levels over 1000-fold lower than observed following consumption as a sugar substitute.
for - progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol
progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol - Low-calorie sweeteners are widely used sugar substitutes in processed foods with presumed health benefits. - Many low-calorie sweeteners are - sugar alcohols that also - are produced endogenously, - albeit at levels - over 1000-fold lower than observed following - consumption as a sugar substitute.
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www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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progress trap - sugar substitutes - xylitol - erythlitol
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- May 2024
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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the United States was suppressing Democratic movements around the world because if an authoritarian if a communist can win an 00:13:59 election fairly one time that's the end of free and fair elections
for - key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - progress trap- US foreign policy that shaped modernity
key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - This was the US's rationale to justify the geopolitical mess it created this century: - If you allow democracy in the age of Communism - people might vote for communism, then - kill all the rich people, then - take their stuff, then - redistribute it - You can get a majority support for that in an impoverished country and that was perceived as a threat - So the United States was suppressing Democratic movements around the world - because if an authoritarian if a communist can win an election fairly one time, - that's the end of free and fair elections - So for decades, the US foreign policy agenda was to install dictators to suppress the threat that democracy could produce communism. - But after "communism was defeated" - all these installed dictators around the world that are the direct result of the pathological US foreign policy posed a new, unexpected quagmire - The decades of US foreign policy had created an enormous progress trap that we are all living through now - The US now had to normalize relations with the new world of dictators it had helped created out of its own fears<br /> - A new US foreign policy rule emerged to deal with this fiasco - Stay in your own country - If you want to kill, imprison, brutalize or subjegate your own people, it is fine with the US government as long as it is done within your own state borders - As long as a nation state abuses their own people, the US will continue to: - buy your oil - trade with you - show up at the UN - even have an occasional State event for you - However, Russia broke that rule
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www.lowimpact.org www.lowimpact.org
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The Law of Unintended Consequences is the only certainty of complex systems, and the biosphere of the planet is the most complex system we know of
for - progress traps - transcending capitalism
progress trap - transcending capitalism - As Stop Reset Go and Deep Humanity has consistently advocated: - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap - there is an urgent need to establish a science of progress traps in order to develop a way to integrate systematically into all human activities. - It is a new field of research for risk analysis and praxis that is based on explicitly recognizing the difference between nature and human nature, between the fundamental nature of reality (emptiness / shunyata - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=emptiness and the symbolosphere we inhabit as humans which is inherently limited by our current reductionist way of knowing reality - Applying systems thinking and complexity is dependent on the explicit recognition of the gap between the inherent limitations of the evolutionary process of human learning which results from - human bias and which always produces - finite number of relationships which we use to make decisions upon and enact in the world
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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illegal labs have used historical pharmacology research to formulate analogs of nitazenes as street drugs.
progress trap - illegal drug manufacture - nitazene - fentanyl - pharmacological research becomes a source for new illicit drug production
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you may never change it back just as we 00:34:52 may not change back genetic manipulation we might do in in the germline which is a reason we should be very cautious about doing it
for - progress trap - genetic engineering - Denis Noble
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we've created a very complex psychosocial World in which we live and we have to adapt to and it changes so rapidly it creates all sorts of problems for us
for - quote - progress trap - speed of cultural evolution - Ray Noble
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if you could correct this Gene would we have the future reassured and we can then avoid all of these diseases I very much doubt it and I think it's very dangerous 00:23:49 because
for - adjacency - progress trap - Crispr - gene therapy - Denis Noble - human genome project
adjacency - between - human genome project - gene therapy - Crispr - progress trap - adjacency relationship - The idea that we can find specific causal relationships between genes and disease and use gene therapy to cure disease, - an envisioned goal of the human genome project - can be very dangerous because - usually one gene collaborates with many other genes to bring about an effect - If we don't know all the relationships, we can bring about a progress trap
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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rising TFA concentrations in our blood since the Montreal protocol [banned CFCs].
for - progress trap - TFA - from Montreal protocol
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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that’s what my Sunday Thought of last Sunday wanted to explain:
for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap - Ralph Thrum article
to - Ralph Thurn LinkedIn article - https://hyp.is/b-LpIA7-Ee-1nyMavdKbbw/www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7192642433833201664/
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Jessie, we are entrapped in a super wicked problem for which there is ultimately no single "solution"
for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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for - progress trap
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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this dualism probably isn’t right given today’s complexities
for - progress trap - post comment - LinkedIn - Ralph Thurn article - progress trap - adjacency - progress trap - maladaptive - attention - focus of attention - cultural evolution - duality - dualism - dualistic
adjacency - between - progress - progress trap - maladaptive - cultural evolution - attention - focus of attention - Exploring this statement further, it isn't just that it is our dualistic thinking applied here is a problem - but that it is the very nature of human analytic reasoning coupled with our innate ability to focus our attention which requires a deep unpacking - For to focus on an object of attention - is something we can only accomplish by defocusing on everything else - Indeed, it is the very act of attention on the one, that is inextricably accompanied by the act of inattention of the many - Our body, and that of many other organisms is evolutionarily designed - to focus our attention in our field of view on emergent phenomena that is salient to our survival - The nature of reductionist-type research - which is to say, most research - is that we continue applying this evolved adaptive behavior, even though cultural evolution (ie. progress) has accelerated exponentially to such an extent - that this same biologically evolved behavior has become maladaptive in the context of modernity
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Solutions to avoid Collapse‘ - that’s why it’s failing!
for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap - Ralph Thurn article
from - post comment - LinkedIn - Ralph Thurn comment - https://hyp.is/BeAvgg37Ee-btqfJNb2SpA/www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737/?commentUrn=urn:li:comment:(activity:7193987030228340737,7194001397091057666)&dashCommentUrn=urn:li:fsd_comment:(7194001397091057666,urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737)&dashReplyUrn=urn:li:fsd_comment:(7194231407479537664,urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737)&replyUrn=urn:li:comment:(activity:7193987030228340737,7194231407479537664)
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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Jessie, we are entrapped in a super wicked problem for which there is ultimately no single "solution"
for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap
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- Apr 2024
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humanity's seemingly unstoppable instinct toward creation. The psychoanalyst Gaston Bachelard coined a term that encapsulates this drive: the "Prometheus complex."
for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - adjacency - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - Gaston Bachelard - French philosopher
adjacency - between - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - adjacency statement - Prometheus complex and progress traps have much in common: - both look at the shadow side of innovation - The mythology of Icarus geting too close the sun is one common to both - Bachelard wrote a pith work on the analysis of the element of fire, in which he introduced the concept of the Prometheus complex - https://philpapers.org/rec/OSEPCA
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Our hands and our brains will, perhaps unconsciously, drift toward the very thing we’re debating if we should do.
for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap
quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)
- Our hands and our brains will,
- perhaps unconsciously
- drift towad the very thing we're debating if we should do
- author - Jenny Thomson
- Our hands and our brains will,
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as the rational, intellectual part of ourselves wrestles with the decision, a deeper, Promethean part of ourselves has pressed it already.
for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap
quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)
- As the rational, intellectual part of ourselves wrestles with the decision,
- a deeper Promethean part of ourselves has pressed it (the red button) already
- author - Jenny Thomson
- As the rational, intellectual part of ourselves wrestles with the decision,
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for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin - Gaston Bachelard - philosopher
summary - This short article brings up an interesting connection between - the Prometheus complex, - a term coined by the French philosopher Gaston Bachelard and - progress traps, - the unintended consequences of progress - The key insight is that human beings may have an Achilles Heel - the desire to know, even at the cost of harm - could be such a powerful impulsive urge - that we throw caution to the wind and - Icarus mythology may be a self-fulfilling prophecy - This also echos the views of my colleague Gyuri Lajos, - that invention for invention sake possesses this very dark side. - This is an important adjacency - as it questions the ethics of knowledge for knowledge sake - As we know from - the history of - progress and its shadowy counterpart, - the progress trap - our impulsive urge to invent has harmful impacts on everyone, - and these continually compound with time
-
At the core, it seems the deeper drive is to invent anything that we’re capable of inventing.
for - impulsive urge - invention - adjacency - progress trap - impulsive urge to invent - Prometheus complex - Gyuri Lajos perspective
Adjacency - between - progress trap - impulsive urge - Gyuri Lajos perspective - Prometheus complex - adjacency statement - It would seem that the the Prometheus complex - is an apt description of that which Gyuri objects to in innovation, namely - innovation for innovation sake - in other words, the impulsive urge merely to know - even if it brings a terrible price
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[I wonder] whether or not human society actually has the agency that we think we have to not invent something if we think it might be bad.
for - quote - Dan Carlin - quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin
quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - (see below)
- [I wonder] whether or not human society actually has the agency that we think we have
- to not invent something if we think it might be bad.
- If you look down the technological road in the distance and see something horrible, could humankind go,
- ‘Oh, you know what? We’re just not going to go there.’
- I’m not sure we have that agency.
comment - Deep Humanity praxis proposes that a new discipline of Progress traps is what is needed to do exactly this - Give us a meta perspective so that we can assess future harm and damage as - AN ACTIONABLE FORESIGHT, not a - TREATABLE HINDSIGHT
- [I wonder] whether or not human society actually has the agency that we think we have
Tags
- quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap
- dark side of invention
- Prometheus complex - philosopher - Gaston Bachelard
- Prometheus complex
- progress trap - Prometheus complex
- adjacency - Prometheus complex - progress trap
- Icarus mythology - progress trap
- quote - Dan Carlin
- quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex
- adjacency - progress trap - impulsive urge to invent - Prometheus complex - Gyuri Lajos perspective
- Dan Carlin - podcast - Hardcore History
Annotators
URL
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- Mar 2024
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www.sciencedaily.com www.sciencedaily.com
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progress trap - PFAS in blood
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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for - progress trap - microplastics - rain - progress trap - plastic
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Progress Trap - Ronald Wright - 2004 Massey Lecture Series - A Short History of Progress
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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AI will still need us for a while... That is until the Singularity will rise - when we will be able to upload our brains into computers.
progress trap - singularity
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- Feb 2024
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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don't give them a problem to solve ask them to identify what the problem is and what the context is and what support 00:08:12 is needed
for - progress trap
- Don't give them a problem to solve
- Ask them
- to identify what the problem is and
- what the context is and
- what support is needed
comment - From a Deep Humanity perspective on - emptiness - progress and it's shadow accomplice - the progress trap - There needs to be an awareness of the siloing effect of even posing a problem - for that is the genesis of the progress trap
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www.trendmd.com www.trendmd.com
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for - progress trap - graphene - safety study
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for - progress trap - AI
Tags
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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for - dorsal light response - flying insects attracted to light - light pollution - progress trap - light pollution
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engineering.cmu.edu engineering.cmu.edu
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for - AI progress trap - bad actor - synthesize bioweapon - AI progress trap - Coscientist and cloud lab - bad actors
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www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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Roman aristocrats used lead cooking vessels, lead water pipes and even added lead acetate into their wine to sweeten it — unwittingly poisoning themselves
for - progress trap - Rome - lead poisoning
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Researchers believe it is down for tiny particles released by traffic fumes, which may be able to bass into the brain
for + progress trap - traffic fumes - Alzheimer's
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for - progress trap - sexually explicit AI deepfake - Taylor Swift - sexually explicit AI deepfake
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- Jan 2024
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www.euronews.com www.euronews.com
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for - progress trap - tires - micro plastic p pollution
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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for - nature-based carbon sequestration - reestablish whale populations - Nate Hagen - The Great Simplification - David King - climate crisis - solutions - progress trap - overfishing - whales
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www.publichealth.columbia.edu www.publichealth.columbia.edu
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for - progress trap - micro plastic in bottled water
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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the canonical unit, the NCU supports natural capital accounting, currency source, calculating and accounting for ecosystem services, and influences how a variety of governance issues are resolved
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for: canonical unit, collaborative commons - missing part - open learning commons, question - process trap - natural capital
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comment
- in this context, indyweb and Indranet are not the canonical unit, but then, it seems the model is fundamentally missing the functionality provided but the Indyweb and Indranet, which is and open learning system.
- without such an open learning system that captures the essence of his humans learn, the activity of problem-solving cannot be properly contextualised, along with all of limitations leading to progress traps.
- The entire approach of posing a problem, then solving it is inherently limited due to the fractal intertwingularity of reality.
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question: progress trap - natural capital
- It is important to be aware that there is a real potential for a progress trap to emerge here, as any metric is liable to be abused
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www.media.mit.edu www.media.mit.edu
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- annotate
- for: AI - progress trap, technology - colonialism
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www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com
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And because the upsides are so obvious, it’s particularly important to step back and ask ourselves, what are the possible downsides? … How do we get the benefits of this while mitigating the risk?”
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for: progress trap - urgent need for a new science
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comment
- Science and technology are constantly producing progress traps. Climate crisis is a major example, but there are so many other. We really and urgently need to motivate for a new field of study of progress traps in general.
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In 2017, Facebook mistranslated a Palestinian man’s post, which said “good morning” in Arabic, as “attack them” in Hebrew, leading to his arrest.
- for: example - progress trap - AI - mistranslation
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- for: progress trap -AI, carbon footprint - AI, progress trap - AI - bias, progress trap - AI - situatedness
Tags
- progress trap - AI - bias
- progress trap - urgent need for a new science
- carbon footprint - AI
- example - progress trap - AI - mistranslation
- AI ethics - Google - Timnit Gebru departure
- progress trap - AI
- progress trap - AI - situatedness
- carbon footprint - AI - large language models
Annotators
URL
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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we're not in the economy of the 1950s anymore. And we act as though we are, that finance is this productive force and it's building, it's building wealth. Well, for the most part, it's not. It's, there's so much financialization, so many financial assets, that they've become an extractive force. And a big piece of this 00:06:37 is that we're not really distinguishing between productive investments and speculative investments
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for: quote - Marjorie Kelly, quote - finacialization, progress trap - financialization, progress trap - capitalism, speculative investing
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quote: Marjorie Kelly
- we're not in the economy of the 1950s anymore.
- And we act as though we are, that finance is this productive force and it's building, it's building wealth.
- Well, for the most part, it's not.
- There's so much financialization, so many financial assets, that they've become an extractive force.
- And a big piece of this is that we're not really distinguishing between
- productive investments and
- speculative investments
- And a big piece of this is that we're not really distinguishing between
-
-
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www.survivalinternational.org www.survivalinternational.org
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the mining operations on Halmahera are now penetrating deep into the rainforest of the Hongana Manyawa.” Vast areas of rainforest on Halmahera island are due to be logged and then mined for nickel. Companies including Tesla are investing billions in Indonesia’s plan to become a major nickel producer for the electric car battery market. French, German, Indonesian and Chinese companies are involved in mining in Halmahera.
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for: progress trap - green growth - nickel mining - evicting uncontacted tribe
-
progress trap: green growth - mining
- Capitalist logic justifies this violence
- We destroy the earth in order to save the earth
- Question
- Is this really the way we should be doing things?
- Is the green growth agenda really going to keep humanity safe? Or will the unintended consequences, the progress trap be worse than the problem it is attempting to solve?
-
-
- Dec 2023
-
sonec.org sonec.org
-
‘progress traps’:
-
for: progress trap, Inner Development Goals, SoNeC, SRG Mapping Tool
-
comment
- nice! (emoji: pleasant surprise) I wonder if Ferial or Joseph gave some inputs here, or was the SoNeC team already familiar with progress traps?
- SRG mapping tool and Deep Humanity are designed to reveal complexity emerging from multiple, diverse perspectives mapped together so can compliment SoNeC application of Inner Development Goals
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paddyleflufy.substack.com paddyleflufy.substack.com
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But it has also resulted in negative environmental impacts
- for: progress trap - economic
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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it's extremely dangerous to create such an autonomous agent when we do not know how to control it when we 00:58:22 can't ensure that it will not Escape our control and start making decisions and creating new things which will harm us instead of benefit us now this is not a 00:58:34 Doomsday Prophecy this is not inevitable we can find ways to regulate and control the development and deployment of AI we we don't want
-
for: quote - Yuval Noah Harari - AI progress trap, progress trap - AI, quote - progress trap
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quote it is extremely dangerous to create such an autonomous agent when we do not know how to control it, when we can't ensure that it will not escape our control ad start making decisions and creating new things which will harm us instead of benefit us
- author: Yuval Noah Harari
- date 2023
-
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i think it's more likely that 00:49:59 that we will think we will think that we this particular set of procedures ai procedures that we linked into our strategic nuclear weapons system uh will keep us safer but we haven't recognized that they're 00:50:12 unintended that there are consequences glitches in it that make it actually stupid and it mistakes the flock of geese for an incoming barrage of russian missiles and and you know unleashes everything in response 00:50:25 before we can intervene
- for: example - stupid AI - nuclear launch, AI - progress trap - example - nuclear launch
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i think the most dangerous thing about ai is not 00:47:11 super smart ai it's uh stupid ai it's artificial intelligence that is good enough to be put in charge of certain processes in our societies but not good enough to not make really 00:47:25 bad mistakes
-
for: quote - Thomas Homer-Dixon, quote - danger of AI, AI progress trap
-
quote: danger of AI
- I think the most dangerous thing about AI is not super smart AI, it's stupid AI that is good enough to be put in charge of certain processes but not good enough to not make really bad mistakes
- author: Thomas Homer-Dixon
- date: 2021
-
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the previous average time for vaccinating 40 percent of the world's population for any other epidemic or pandemic or any other viral disease 00:45:56 had been 80 years 40 percent of the world's population this time we did it in two
-
for: progress trap
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progress trap: speed of vaccination
- If the vaccine was imperfect and caused harm, it could have caused harm to 40% of three population in a short period of time.
- the shorter the time for something to spread globally, the faster unintended consequence can spread and cause harm
-
-
enough versus feasible dilemma
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for: definition - enough vs feasible dilemma, double bind, progress trap
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definition: enough vs feasible dilemma
- the changes that are actually required are not feasible to do
- what is feasible to do is not enough
- this puts us in a double bind
- we need to have interventions that are BOTH
- enough to solve these problems and are
- feasible to execute
-
-
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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we have to be very careful when we respond to climate change we're not exacerbating the other ones that are there and 00:12:34 ideally we want to try and respond to all of these challenges at the same time and there are a lot of crossovers between them but there are also real risks that sometimes you you solve one thing and cause another now in contemporary Society we have been very 00:12:47 good at reductionist thinking of of silos of thinking one bit and then causing another problem elsewhere we we don't have that opportunity anymore we have to start to think of these issues at a system level
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for: progress trap - Kevin Anderson
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validation: SRG mapping tool, Indyweb
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- Nov 2023
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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- for: progress trap - free market, example - government policy - why it's needed
-
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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conventional mouthwashes are very harmful it's been well documented if you use a conventional mouthwash your blood 01:32:00 pressure goes up for a long time because you've eradicated oral microbes that you needed that were producing such things as night uh as nitrosamine not sorry as nitric oxide that reduces blood 01:32:12 pressure uh and and they're not selective for bad microbes they kill everything including good ones
- for: Progress trap - mouthwash, mouthwash - blood pressure
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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- for: example - complexity - automobile, example - progress trap - automobile
-
- Oct 2023
-
www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
-
But unchecked pursuit of competitive growth, powered by exponential technology on a finite planet has created a self-terminating 'race to the bottom' where no-one can opt out of the arms race unless all the competitors do the same.
- for: progress trap, moloch - progress trap, progress trap - Moloch
- comment
- This explanation leaves out one variable that defines the progress trap
-
Humans are the only known species which has managed to totally dominate their enviroment by recursively advancing their tool-making capacity - thanks to the evolution of our abstract conceptual language and thought, and second-order thinking
-
for: progress trap
-
comment
- this is similar to the Deep Humanity, contextual preamble that introduces progress traps.
-
-
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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how do we 01:03:46 meet not match right so this is an image that meets all of this these images are going to go for 01:04:00 decontextualized singular responses that are going to create more double binds if you try to solve for life on land you're going to end up with life on 01:04:12 water being a disaster life in water or life in the air or life right if you try to solve for one you get into these contradictions and double binds
-
for: holism, progress trap, double bind, SDG failure
-
comment
- In the current silo'd approach typified by the SDGs, unintended consequences, or progress traps are unavoidable and are built into the approach itself.
-
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the definition of a double bind is that you have a a problem a bind 00:35:07 in one context and you can't actually solve it in that context because it's caught in another context and so you can't solve it in that 00:35:20 context because it's caught in these other contexts
-
for: definition, definition - double bind
-
definition: double bind
- the definition of a double bind is that you have a problem (a bind) in one context and you can't actually solve it in that context because it's caught in another context
- Gregory Bateson defined the double bind as an evolutionary trait of species due to their changing nature.
- Since individuals of a species are constantly changing, there comes a day when all that it knows what to do in order to survive is outdated due to the changing environment. When it repeats the old behavior that served its survival in the past, it dies.
-
comment
- adjacency
- between
- double bind
- progress trap
- between
- adjacency statement
- progress traps are related to double binds because in a progress trap, an implemented solution to a problem in one context gives rise to a new problem in another context.
- the original problem (bind) in one context appears to be resolvable but actual isn't. Future unfolding of the implemented solution unfold a future unexpected problem.
- The two problems are not simultaneously occurring as in a double bind, but time-delayed
- both double bind and progress traps emerge from the same root of violating holism
- in not grasping the implications of the emptiness of phenomena, we ignore intertwingled nature of reality, we circumvent Indra's meet of jewels at our own peril
- adjacency
-
-
every time we try to pick at one piece of this polycrisis we end up actually creating problems in other contexts
-
for: polycrisis, quote, quote - polycrisis, quote - Nora Bateson
-
quote
- every time we pick at one piece of those polycrisis we end up actually creating more problems in other contexts
-
author: Nora Bateson
-
example
- climate change If we do, all emissions suddenly, we will create an economic crisis, then without money, a health and social crisis
-
Tags
- SDG - progress trap
- example
- adjacency
- definition - double bind
- definition
- SDG - double binds
- Indra's net of jewels
- quote - Nora Bateson
- adjacency - double bind - progress trap
- quote - polycrisis
- double bind
- progress trap
- example - polycrisis progress trap
- quote
- holism
- emptiness
- SDG failure
Annotators
URL
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the quick definition would be 00:03:20 something like the metac crisis is all the crisis put together right and people go oh oh I see I see but they don't see right cuz it's not really the end of it that's just the beginning of the conversation the metac crisis is also in 00:03:33 the way you make sense of the world the way you feel it in in imote in relation to it the metac crisis is in your incapacity to fully articulate and narrate the self in this 00:03:47 context and The Meta crisis is also a you know coextensive with Co arising with this particular historical Epoch
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for: metacrisis framework, progress trap - metacrisis sensemaking
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comment
- progress trap framing would help provide an overarching sensemaking framework
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www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
-
- for: progress trap, progress trap - climate change - zombie virus
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LLMs are merely engines for generating stylistically plausible output that fits the patterns of their inputs, rather than for producing accurate information. Publishers worry that a rise in their use might lead to greater numbers of poor-quality or error-strewn manuscripts — and possibly a flood of AI-assisted fakes.
-
for: progress trap, progress trap - AI, progress trap - AI - writing research papers
-
comment
- potential fakes
- climate science fakes by big oil think tanks
- Covid and virus research
- race issues
- gender issues
- potential fakes
-
-
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www.sciencedaily.com www.sciencedaily.com
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- for: instant evolution, AI - instant evolution, progress trap, progress trap - AI - instant evolution, progress trap - robotics
-
-
www.sciencedaily.com www.sciencedaily.com
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- for: synthetic biology, progress trap - synthetic biology
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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ethics and safety and that is absolutely a concern and something we have a 00:38:29 responsibility to be thinking about and we want to ensure that we stakeholders conservationists Wildlife biologists field biologists are working together to Define an 00:38:42 ethical framework and inspecting these models
- for: progress trap, progress trap - AI
-
- Sep 2023
-
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
-
"Unless you've felt it, unless you've cried over the fact that we really thought we were making the world a better place with the internet..." He pauses. "We 100 per cent believed that." Humanity, he says, is living through "two super old stories. One: be careful what you wish for, because you'll get it... And two: creators losing control of their creations." He should know, because he is one of those Dr Frankensteins. As the son of Silicon Valley royalty (or at least nobility), he spent years merrily building technology that he believed was changing the world. It did, but not in the way that he hoped.
-
for: progress trap, progress trap - Aza Raskin, progress trap - internet, quote, quote - Aza Raskin, quote - progress trap, quote - progress trap - internet
-
quote
- Unless you've felt it, unless you've cried over the fact that we really thought we were making the world a better place with the internet... We 100 per cent believed that.
-
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jonathanhaidt.com jonathanhaidt.com
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for: annotate, annotate - social media, progress trap - social media
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source: connectathon 2023 09 23
- session on social media
-
-
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
-
- for: unintended consequences, progress trap, progress trap - toothpaste, progress trap - fluoride
-
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
-
Dark sides of REP
- for: progress trap, progress trap - REP, progress trap - Renewable Energy Prosumerism
-progress trap - commercialization - exclusion - instrumentation - projectification - Responsibilization and overburdening - Hidden systemic repurcussions
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Our future will involve a highly diverse space of novel beings in every possible combination of evolved cellular material, designed engineered components, and software. How do we know what we should expect from intelligences in unconventional embodiments?
- for: progress trap, unintended consequences, progress trap - new life forms, progress trap - bioengineering
- comment
- this opens up a big can of worms. A general theory of progress traps (https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap) is urgently needed to systematically study the unintended consequences of progress.
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we attempt to bring concepts from both biology and Buddhism together into the language of AI, and suggest practical ways in which care may enrich each field.
- for: progress trap, AI, AI - care drive
- comment
- the precautionary principle needs to be observed with AI because it has such vast artificial cognitive, pattern-recognition processes at its disposal
- AI will also make mistakes, but the degree of power behind the mistaken decision, recommendation or action is the degree of unintended consequences or progress trap
- An example nightmare scenario could be:
- AI could decide that humans are contradicting their own goal of a stable climate system and if it's in control, may think it knows better and perform whole system change that dramatically reduces human induced climate change but actually harms a lot of humans in the process, for reaching the goal of saving the climate system plus a sufficient subset of humans to start all over.
-
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
-
Are we wise to have built these weapons which now threaten us all?
- for: progress trap, progress trap - atomic bomb
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-
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synthetic bioengineering provides a really astronomically large option space for new bodies and new minds that don't have 00:04:28 standard evolutionary backstories
- for: cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, CCE, bioengineering, novel life form, culturally evolved life, bioethics, progress trap, progress trap - bioengineering, progress trap - genetic engineering
- comment
- cultural evolution, which itself emerges from biological evolution is acting upon itself to create new life forms that have no evolutionary backstory
- this is tantamount to playing God
- progress traps often emerge out of the large speed mismatch between cultural and biological/genetic evolution.
- Nowhere is this more profound than in bioengineering of new forms of life with no evolutionary history
- This presents profound ethical challenges
-
-
www.science.org www.science.org
-
The insects spread internationally via shipping, especially of plants and soil. Red fire ants have been detected in imported products in Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands, but not as wild colonies.
-
for: progress trap, red fire ants, fire ants, progress trap - shipping, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - shipping
-
paraphrase
- Fire ants would be devastating if released in continental Europe and even more all around the Mediterranean Sea.
- The cost for human economies and well-being would be enormous. Where they have been invasive, they have:
- displaced native ant and other species
- damage electrical equipment
- A genetic analysis of the Italian ants suggests they likely came from either China or the United States.
- In the U.S., the species causes an estimated $6 billion in damage each year.
- The insects spread internationally via shipping, especially of plants and soil.
- Red fire ants have been detected in imported products in Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands, but not as wild colonies.
-
-
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The dualism of scientific materialism and its one-person psychologies are arguably complicit in much of the psychological and social damage we are now recognising.
-
for: dualism, dualism - psychology, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - dualism in psychology, progress trap, progress trap - dualism in psychology
-
paraphrase
- The dualism of scientific materialism gives rise to one-person psychologies
- and are arguably complicit in much of the psychological and social damage we are now recognising.
- For instance, a good deal of the historical denial of the role of psychological and social trauma has been traced
- back to the Freudian model’s almost exclusive focus on the internal world;
- the actual impact of others and society has been, as a result, relatively ignored.
- back to the Freudian model’s almost exclusive focus on the internal world;
- Modern psychiatry, which accepts the same philosophical model but changes the level of explanation, is just as culpable.
- Likewise CBT, with its focus on dysfunctional thought patterns and rational remedies administered from the outside, also follows the same misguided philosophy.
- The dualism of scientific materialism gives rise to one-person psychologies
-
question
- what are concrete ways this has caused harm?
- future work
- perform literature review on case studies where Winnicott's approach has been a more constructive therapeutic one
-
Tags
- question
- unintended consequences
- progress trap - dualism in psychology
- Cartesian dualism
- unintended consequences - dualism in psychology
- dualism - psychology
- future work
- future work - advantages of Winnicott's approach
- question - harm from dualism in psychology
- dualism
- progress trap
Annotators
URL
-
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www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
-
After CNN’s reporting, Musk reversed course, tweeting “the hell with it … we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free.”
for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - Elon Musk, progress trap - Elon Musk - comment - the US military, Ukraine military have to deal with the unintended consequence of a vital communication system that can be turned off without notice or warning - what if Putin calls up Musk and says to him: - If you don't turn the Starlink off when Ukraine tries to mount major attack on Crimea, I will launch my nukes - What will Musk do then?
-
“How am I in this war?” Musk asks Isaacson. “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, playing God, Elon Musk - Starlink - Ukraine, Elon Musk- Crimea, Elon Musk - nuclear war, quote, quote - Elon Musk - nuclear war - starlink - crimea
- quote
- How am I in this war?
- Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars.
- It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.
- author: Elon Musk
- comment
- the Tech genius could not predict the progress trap of starlink being used by the Ukrainian army to send submarine drones to blow up Russian ships
- so he was forced into a position of playing God
-
As Ukrainian submarine drones strapped with explosives approached the Russian fleet, they “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes. Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons
-
for: progress trap, unintended consequences, nuclear war, Elon Musk - Ukraine, playing God
-
comment
- Here, Elon Musk demonstrates how the most powerful technological leaders are themselves unable to predict the unintended consequences of progress.
- This story exposes the power that no tech titan is immune to
- making one dimensional decisions based on high dimensional information whose salient relationships can not be predicted ahead of time.
- The dilemma of power - it is opaque and puts the fate of humanity in the decision of a few God-like individuals
- Do 8 billion people really trust one man to decide the fate of civilization?
- And yet, this is the kind of world that those in power continue to reify by consolidating their positions
- The myth of dictators wanting to hold onto power at all costs goes beyond the sphere of politics
-
Tags
- quote - Elon Musk - nuclear war - starlink - crimea
- unintended consequence
- Elon Musk - Starlink - Ukraine
- Progress trap
- Elon Musk - Nuclear war
- Elon Musk Starlink - Crimea - Nuclear war
- progress trap - Elon Musk
- playing God
- Starlink - nuclear war
- unintended consequence - Elon Musk
- progress trap
- quote
- Elon Musk - Ukraine - nuclear war
Annotators
URL
-
-
-
Another concern is that these emerging economies could be simply trapping themselves in more debt with these agreements.
- for: debt trap, economic colonialism, progress trap, JETP, UETP, Invesitgate, investigate - JETP
- progress trap
- in building out renewable infrastructure, these loans and grants may further increase debt to disenfranchised countries
- then it is no longer Just energy transition but becomes Unjust Energy Transition Partnerships (UETP)
- if not done right, JETP can turn into UETP
- This definitely requires further investigation!
- investigate
- whether JETP are REALLY JUST!
-
- Aug 2023
-
-
- for: fossil capitalism, progress trap, intersectionality, social norms, social norms - waste, externalization, capitalism
-
title
- Waves of Abandonment
- The Permian Basin is ground zero for a billion-dollar surge of zombie oil wells
- Waves of Abandonment
-
summary
- a story that illustrates the intersectionality of fossil capitalism
- progress trap
- exploitation
- tragedy of the commons
- fossil fuel industry
- gold rush
- externalization
- fossil capitalism
- a story that illustrates the intersectionality of fossil capitalism
-
Comment
- Yet another example of capitalism's tendency to externalize manifests at the most basic level.
- The tendency to treat nature as an inexhaustable garbage dumping ground seems to be built into our culture's economic norms taught to us by most parents and society at large.
- There are not enough parents that teach their children to love, respect and feel that they are an intrinsic part of nature.
- The externalization our society teaches us in the form of destructive, widely-accepted social norms of waste such as::
- having the concept of waste and garbage
- garbage taken out once a week
- waste bins everywhere
- keep our backyard clean, but at the expense of trucking out our garbage to some unknown place
- has been enculturated into us from early age
-
-
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
-
The instinctual BS-meter is not enough. The next version of the ‘BS-meter’ will need to be technologically based. The tricks of misinformation have far outstripped the ability of people to reliably tell whether they are receiving BS or not – not to mention that it requires a constant state of vigilance that’s exhausting to maintain. I think that the ability and usefulness of the web to enable positive grassroots civic communication will be harnessed, moving beyond mailing lists and fairly static one-way websites.
- for: misinformation, disinformation, fake news, quote, quote - Greg Shatan, quote - misinformation, progress trap - misinformation, progress trap - digital technology, indyweb - support
- quote
- The instinctual BS-meter is not enough.
- The next version of the ‘BS-meter’ will need to be technologically based.
- The tricks of misinformation have far outstripped the ability of people to reliably tell whether they are receiving BS or not
- author: Greg Shatan
- lawyer, Moses & Singer LLP
- not to mention that it requires a constant state of vigilance that’s exhausting to maintain.
- I think that the ability and usefulness of the web to enable positive grassroots civic communication will be harnessed,
- moving beyond mailing lists and fairly static one-way websites.
- lawyer, Moses & Singer LLP
-
the gig economy is enabled by technology; technology finds buyers for workers and their services. However, given the choice between an economy with many gig workers and an economy with an equivalent number of traditional middle-class jobs, I think that most people would prefer the latter.”
- for: gig economy, progress trap, unintended consequence, quote, quote - unintended consequence, quote - progress trap, quote James Mickens
- quote
- the gig economy is enabled by technology;
- technology finds buyers for workers and their services.
- However, given the choice between
- an economy with many gig workers and
- an economy with an equivalent number of traditional middle-class jobs,
- I think that most people would prefer the latter.
- author: James Mickens
- associate professor of computer science, Harvard University
-
We will use technology to solve the problems the use of technology creates, but the new fixes will bring new issues. Every design solution creates a new design problem, and so it is with the ways we have built our global networks.
-
Technology and social innovation intended to overcome the negatives of the digital age will likely cause additional negative consequences. Examples include: the decentralized web, end-to-end encryption, AI and machine learning, social media.
- for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, unintended consequence, quotation - unintended consequence
- quote
- Technology and social innovation intended to overcome the negatives of the digital age
- will likely cause additional negative consequences. Examples include:
- the decentralized web,
- end-to-end encryption,
- AI and machine learning,
- social media.
- will likely cause additional negative consequences. Examples include:
- Technology and social innovation intended to overcome the negatives of the digital age
- author: Larry Masinter -internet pioneer, formerly with Adobe, AT&T Labs and Xerox PARC, who helped create internet and web standards with IETF and W3C
-
- for: progress trap, unintended consequences, Indyweb - justifiication
- description
- a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
- in other words, progress traps
- a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
- comment
- also a lot of rich material to justify the Indyweb's design ethos
Tags
- Indyweb
- progress traps
- progress trap - digital technology
- Greg Shatan
- quote - James Mickens
- Indyweb - justification
- quote - misinformation
- Indyweb - support
- quote - unintended consequences
- quote Greg Shatan
- Quote - Larry Masinter
- quote - progress trap
- quote - unintended consequence
- unintended consequences
- Quote
- quote - digital technology
- Progress trap
- quote
- progress trap
- progress trap - misinformation
- technology - unintended consequences
- progress
Annotators
URL
-
-
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
-
there is a disconnect between the long period of evolution that honed our humanity and the short period of rapid technology change we are facing.
- for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, quote Brian Southwell, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International
-
quote
- We are likely to make some gains in personal health, are likely to face some collective concerns in terms of environmental health and
- are not likely to cope with the alienation and despair that is a part of a life lived largely online.
- In the latter case, there is a disconnect between the long period of evolution that honed our humanity and
- the short period of rapid technology change we are facing.
-
author: Brian Southwell
- director, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International
-
-
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
-
Technological change is an accelerant and acts on the social ills like pouring gasoline on a fire
- for: quote, quote - Stowe Boyd, quote - progress trap, quote - unintended consequences, unintended consequences, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap
- quote:
- Technological change is an accelerant and acts on the social ills like pouring gasoline on a fire
- author: Sowe Boyd
- consulting futurist on technological evolution and the future of work
- paraphrase
- In an uncontrolled hyper-capitalist society,
- the explosion in technologies over the past 30 years has only
- widened inequality,
- concentrated wealth and
- led to greater social division.
- And it is speeding up with the rise of artificial intelligence,
- which like globalization has destabilized Western industrial economies while admittedly pulling hundreds of millions elsewhere out of poverty.
- the explosion in technologies over the past 30 years has only
- And the boiling exhaust of this set of forces is pushing the planet into a climate catastrophe. -The world is as unready for hundreds of millions of climate refugees as it was for the plague.
- However, some variant of social media will likely form the context for the rise of a global movement to stop the madness
- which I call the Human Spring
- which will be more like
- Occupy or
- the Yellow Vests
- than traditional politics.
- I anticipate a grassroots movement
- characterized by
- general strikes,
- political action,
- protest and
- widespread disruption of the economy
- that will confront the economic and political system of the West.
- characterized by
- Lead by the young,
ultimately this will lead to large-scale political reforms, such as
- universal health care,
- direct democracy,
- a new set of rights for individuals and
- a large set of checks on the power of
- corporations and
- political parties.
- For example,
- eliminating corporate contributions to political campaigns,
- countering monopolies and
- effectively accounting for economic externalities, like carbon.
- In an uncontrolled hyper-capitalist society,
-
with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all!
-for: quote, quote - Jennifer Jarratt, quote - progress trap, progress trap, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, quote - unintended consequences, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap - quote: with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all! - author: Jennifer Jarratt - co-principal of Leading Futurists LLC
-
The big tech companies, left to their own devices (so to speak), have already had a net negative effect on societies worldwide. At the moment, the three big threats these companies pose – aggressive surveillance, arbitrary suppression of content (the censorship problem), and the subtle manipulation of thoughts, behaviors, votes, purchases, attitudes and beliefs – are unchecked worldwide
- for: quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias,quote - future of democracy, quote - tilting elections, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
- quote
- The big tech companies, left to their own devices , have already had a net negative effect on societies worldwide.
- At the moment, the three big threats these companies pose
- aggressive surveillance,
- arbitrary suppression of content,
- the censorship problem, and
- the subtle manipulation of
- thoughts,
- behaviors,
- votes,
- purchases,
- attitudes and
- beliefs
- are unchecked worldwide
- author: Robert Epstein
- senior research psychologist at American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology
- paraphrase
- Epstein's organization is building two technologies that assist in combating these problems:
- passively monitor what big tech companies are showing people online,
- smart algorithms that will ultimately be able to identify online manipulations in realtime:
- biased search results,
- biased search suggestions,
- biased newsfeeds,
- platform-generated targeted messages,
- platform-engineered virality,
- shadow-banning,
- email suppression, etc.
- Tech evolves too quickly to be managed by laws and regulations,
- but monitoring systems are tech, and they can and will be used to curtail the destructive and dangerous powers of companies like Google and Facebook on an ongoing basis.
- Epstein's organization is building two technologies that assist in combating these problems:
- reference
- seminar paper on monitoring systems, ‘Taming Big Tech -: https://is.gd/K4caTW.
-
Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
- for: progress traps, progress, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, unintended consequences - technology, unintended consequences - digital technology, progress trap - quotations, quote, quote - progress trap
- title: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
- authors: emily A Vogels, Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson
- year: June 30, 2020
- description: a good source of quotations on progress traps / unintended consequences of digital technology from this Pew Research 2020 report on the future of the digital technology and democracy.
- the Pew Research Center interviewed a lot of experts in the field
- in particular, section 5 of the report entitled
- "Tech causes more problems than it can solve" is quite salient for the topic of progress traps
- The Indyweb actually addresses many of these problems:
-
Technology’s greatest contribution to social and civic innovation in the next decade will be to provide accurate, user-friendly context and honest assessment of issues, problems and potential solutions
- for: quote, quote - Barry Chudakov, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
- quote
- paraphrase
- Technology’s greatest contribution to social and civic innovation in the next decade
- will be to provide
- accurate, user-friendly context and
- honest assessment of
- issues,
- problems and
- potential solutions / comment - indyweb /
- We are facing greater accelerations of
- climate change,
- social mobility,
- pollution,
- immigration and
- resource issues.
- Our problems have gone from complicated to wicked.
- We need
- clear answers and
- discussions that are
- cogent,
- relevant and
- true to facts.
- Technology must guard against becoming a platform to enable targeted chaos,
- that is, using technology as a means to
- obfuscate and
- manipulate.
- We are all now living in Sim City:
- The digital world is showing us a sim,
- or digital mirror,
- of each aspect of reality.
- The most successful social and civic innovation I expect to see by 2030
- is a massive restructuring of our educational systems based on new and emerging mirror digital worlds. / comment: This bodes well for Indyweb for education/
- We will then need to expand our information presentations to include
- verifiable factfulness that ensures any digital presentation faithfully and
- accurately matches the physical realities.
- Just as medicine went from
- bloodletting and leeches and lobotomies to
- open-heart surgery and artificial limbs,
- technology will begin to modernize information flows around core issues: urgent need, future implications, accurate assessment.
- Technology can play a crucial role to move humanity
- from blame fantasies
- to focused attention and working solutions.”
-
I’m going to start with the U.S.; technology in the U.S. is caught up in American late-stage (or financialized) capitalism where profitability isn’t the goal; perpetual return on investment is. Given this, the tools that we’re seeing developed by corporations reinforce capitalist agendas.
- for: corporate power, technology - capitalism, capitalism - exploitation, Danah Boyd, progress trap
- paraphrase
- quote
- technology in the U.S. is caught up in American late-stage (or financialized) capitalism
- where profitability isn’t the goal;
- perpetual return on investment is.
- Given this, the tools that we’re seeing developed by corporations
- reinforce capitalist agendas.
- Innovation will require pushing past this capitalist infrastructure to achieve the social benefits and civic innovation that will work in the United States.
- China is a whole other ball of wax.
- If you want to go there, follow up with me. But pay attention to Taobao centers.
- We haven’t hit peak awful yet.
- I have every confidence that social and civic innovation can be beneficial in the long run
- with a caveat that I think that climate change dynamics might ruin all of that
- but no matter what, I don’t think we’re going to see significant positive change by 2030.
- I think things are going to get much worse before they start to get better.
- I should also note that I don’t think that many players have taken responsibility for what’s unfolding.
-Yes, tech companies are starting to see that things might be a problem,
- but that’s only on the surface. -News media does not at all acknowledge its role in amplifying discord,
- or its financialized dynamics.
- The major financiers of this economy don’t take any responsibility for what’s unfolding. Etc.
- technology in the U.S. is caught up in American late-stage (or financialized) capitalism
- author: Dana Boyd
- principal researcher, Microsoft Research
- founder, Data & Society
-
What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip, tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything, including wrongly. The only places where news won’t skew fake will be localities in the natural world. That’s where the digital and the physical connect best. Also expect the internet to break into pieces, with the U.S., Europe and China becoming increasingly isolated by different value systems and governance approaches toward networks and what runs on them.
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Doc Searls
- quote
- What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip,
- tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything,
- including wrongly.
- tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything,
- The only places where news won’t skew fake will be localities in the natural world.
- That’s where the digital and the physical connect best.
- Also expect the internet to break into pieces, with
- the U.S.,
- Europe and
- China
- becoming increasingly isolated by different value systems and governance approaches toward
- networks and
- what runs on them.
- What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip,
-
I see no reason to think that the current situation will change: Tech will cause problems that require innovative solutions and tech will be part of those solutions. Machine learning (ML) is right now an example of this
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - David Weinberger
- quote: I see no reason to think that the current situation will change:
- Tech will cause problems that require innovative solutions and
- tech will be part of those solutions.
- Machine learning (ML) is right now an example of this
- author: David Weinberger
- senior researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society
-
Can our fundamental human need for close community be restored or will we become more isolated, anxious and susceptible to manipulation?
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Jonathan Grudin
- quote: Can our fundamental human need for close community be restored or
- will we become more isolated, anxious and susceptible to manipulation?
- author: Jonathan Grudin
- principal researcher, Microsoft
-
If tech doesn’t contribute to solving some of the problems it creates, we are doomed
- for: quote, quote - Esther Dyson, quote - progress trap, quote - progress traps, progress trap,
- quote: "If tech doesn’t contribute to solving some of the problems it creates, we are doomed"
- author: Esther Dyson
- internet pioneer
- journalist
- entrepreneur
- executive founder of Way to Wellville
Tags
- progress trap - quotations
- Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society
- search engine manipulation effect
- definition
- technology - capitalism
- Indyweb - support
- quote SEME
- quote Doc Searls
- quote - progress trap
- definition - the Human Spring
- Leading Futurists LLC
- progress trap - pew
- unintended consequence - technology
- quote - Barry Chudakov
- quote - David Weinberger
- Esther Dyson
- quote - technology futures
- unintended consequence
- Harvard
- quote - Jonathan Grudin
- progress trap - Google
- Pew - progress traps
- quote - Esther Dyson
- quote - tilting elections
- SEME
- quote
- technology - unintended consequences
- progress traps
- progress trap - digital technology
- progress traps - digital technology
- quote -search engine manipulation effect
- quote - unintended consequences
- progress trap - search engine
- quote - Stowe Boyd
- futures - technology
- unintended consequences - technology
- the Human Spring
- search engine bias
- The Linux Journal
- Microsoft Research
- Stowe Boyd
- quote - mind control
- quote - Robert Epstein
- progress trap - social media
- corporate power
- Jennifer Jarratt
- unintended consequences - digital technology
- unintended consequences
- Way to Wellville
- quote - digital technology
- Progress trap
- quote - Danah Boyd
- progress trap
- capitalist exploitation
- future - education
- quote - election bias
Annotators
URL
-
-
www.uspto.gov www.uspto.gov
-
- for: progress, progress trap, exponential growth - knowledge, exponential growth - technology, technology - exponential growth, US patents, patents, intellectual property -description: GIF graph of US patents from the start in 1825 to 2021
-
-
-
- for: transition, transition - energy, progress, progress traps
- title: The Energy Transition Is a Technological Revolution — with a Deadline
- subtitle: What historical transitions — from water wheels to semiconductors — can teach us about today’s energy transition.
- authors
- Yuki Numata
- Laurens Speelman
- date: Aug 10, 2023
- source: https://rmi.org/the-energy-transition-is-a-technological-revolution-with-a-deadline/
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
About ten years ago, a massive breakthrough happened in genomic research technology. A method appeared which is called NGS, next generation sequencing, and this method significantly cuts time and costs of any genomic research. For example, have you ever heard about the Human Genome Project? It was quite a popular topic for science fiction some time ago. 00:03:10 This project launched in 1990 with the goal to decrypt all genomic information in a human organism. At that time, with the technology of the time, it took ten years and three billion dollars to reach the goals of this project. With NGS, all of that can be done in just one day at the cost of 15,000 dollars.
- for: progress trap, cumulative cultural evolution, gene-culture co-evolution, speed of cultural evolution, human genome project
- paraphrase
- the human genome project took 10 years and cost 3 billion dollars
- with NGS technology, 10 years later, the same job takes 1 day and costs $15,000 dollars
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
the problems I've mentioned are being tackled by groups of people 00:11:18 sad thing is those people are often operating in silos just concerned to solve their particular problem not realizing that if they don't have the whole picture they may solve their 00:11:31 problem and cause problems in other places
- for: indyweb, silos, emptiness - example, entanglement - example, progress trap
- paraphrase
- quote
- all the problems I've mentioned are being tackled by groups of people
- sad thing is those people are often operating in silos just concerned to solve their particular problem
- not realizing that if they don't have the whole picture they may solve their problem
- and cause problems in other places
- author
- Jane Goodall
- comment
- the Indyweb and SRG strategy is designed specifically to mitigate progress traps through radical collaboration built into the communication and information system itself.
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
if you ask about things like lack projects or reality projects on the individual level you know I was talking 00:32:01 about how the separation is a delusion it's uncomfortable we become preoccupied with trying to find something out here that'll fill up our sense of lack and you know we can Wonder is there 00:32:13 something comparable at the civilizational level and frankly I think that there is I think that it is our Collective preoccupation with progress
- for: progress trap, sense of lack, the lack project, collective lack project, individual lack project
- key insight
- progress, and the shadow side, the progress trap
- is the collective lack project, that corresponds to the individual's lack project
-
-
link.springer.com link.springer.com
-
In AET, this process results in a species that is prone to niche construction and ecosystem engineering, and the scale of these processes continues to increase as the population rises. This increasing scale coupled with human propensity for niche construction leads to human unsustainability
- for: for: ecological collapse, overshoot, progress trap, progress trap - cultural evolution, ultra-sociality, Lotka's maximum power, gene culture coevolution
- key finding
- paraphrase
- In AET,
- multi-level selection acting on the genome and
- occurring in concert with selective and non-selective mechanisms acting on culture and technology
- results in a species that is prone to
- niche construction and
- ecosystem engineering,
- and the scale of these processes continues to increase as the population rises.
- This increasing scale
- coupled with human propensity for niche construction
- leads to human unsustainability
- In AET,
- paraphrase
-
To Gowdy and Krall, the ultra-social nature of human groups allowed for a shift in the primary level of selection from the individual level to the group level. Thus, “With the transition to agriculture the group as an adaptive unit comes to constitute a wholly different gestalt driven by the imperative to produce surplus
- for: ecological collapse, overshoot, progress trap, progress trap - cultural evolution, ultra-sociality, Lotka's maximum power
- paraphrase
- to Gowdy and Krall, the ultra-social nature of human groups allowed for a shift in the primary level of selection
- from the individual level
- to the group level.
- Thus, “With the transition to agriculture the group as an adaptive unit comes to constitute a wholly different gestalt
- driven by the imperative to produce surplus
- to Gowdy and Krall, the ultra-social nature of human groups allowed for a shift in the primary level of selection
-
Anthroecological theory (AET) hypothesizes that human social and cultural evolution is the ultimate cause of the ecological crises currently damaging earth systems
- for: AET, Anthroecological theory, anthropocene - causes, ecological crisis - roots, overshoot
- paraphrase
- Anthroecological theory (AET) hypothesizes that
- human social and cultural evolution is the ultimate cause of the ecological crises currently damaging earth systems
- Anthroecological theory (AET) hypothesizes that
-
-
for: gene culture coevolution, carrying capacity, unsustainability, overshoot, cultural evolution, progress trap
-
Title: The genetic and cultural evolution of unsustainability
-
Author: Brian F. Snyder
-
Abstract
- Summary
- Paraphrase
- Anthropogenic changes are accelerating and threaten the future of life on earth.
- While the proximate mechanisms of these anthropogenic changes are well studied
- climate change,
- biodiversity loss,
- population growth
- the evolutionary causality of these anthropogenic changes have been largely ignored.
- Anthroecological theory (AET) proposes that the ultimate cause of anthropogenic environmental change is
- multi-level selection for niche construction and ecosystem engineering.
- Here, we integrate this theory with
- Lotka’s Maximum Power Principle
- and propose a model linking
- energy extraction from the environment with
- genetic, technological and cultural evolution
- to increase human ecosystem carrying capacity.
- Carrying capacity is partially determined by energetic factors such as
- the net energy a population can acquire from its environment and
- the efficiency of conversion from energy input to offspring output.
- These factors are under Darwinian genetic selection
- in all species,
- but in humans, they are also determined by
- technology and
- culture.
- If there is genetic or non-genetic heritable variation in
- the ability of an individual or social group
- to increase its carrying capacity,
- then we hypothesize that - selection or cultural evolution will act - to increase carrying capacity.
- Furthermore, if this evolution of carrying capacity occurs
- faster than the biotic components of the ecological system can respond via their own evolution,
- then we hypothesize that unsustainable ecological changes will result.
-
Tags
- gene culture coevolution
- niche construction
- cumulative cultural evolution
- key finding
- progress trap - cultural evolution
- human niche construction
- overshoot
- Lotka's maximum power
- Gowdy and Krall
- The genetic and cultural evolution of unsustainability
- evolution of polycrisis
- key finding - AET
- Brian F Snyder
- progress trap - gene culture coevolution
- key finding - unsustainability
- gene-culture coevolution
- cultural evolution
- evolution of our polycrisis
- Anthroecological theory
- evolution of the anthropocene
- AET
- conscious cumulative cultural evolution
- unsustainability
- progress trap
- ultra-sociality
Annotators
URL
-
-
www.edge.org www.edge.org
-
- for cultural evolution, speed of cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, progress trap, Freeman Dyson,
- comment
- Freeman Dyson opines that cultural evolution of humans now determines the genetic fate of all species on the planet
- and gives a warning of how human cumulative cultural evolution now has the potential to threaten, via genetic sciences to play God over biology itself -reference
- Musician Yoyo Ma quotes Freeman:
- https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2F2fBmGXqHvk8%2F&group=world
- Freeman Dyson opines that cultural evolution of humans now determines the genetic fate of all species on the planet
-
To preserve our wildlife as nature evolved it, the machinery of biological evolution must be protected from the homogenizing effects of cultural evolution.
- for: cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, speed of cultural evolution, progress trap, Freeman Dyson, Anthropocene
- comment
- while Freeman spoke to the direct dangers of genetic engineering,
- he neglected to point out the broader threat of progress itself, which has already placed our species in the position
- of playing God with the evolution of many species on the planet already, via the enormous impacts of organized human activity - ie. the Anthropocene
- he neglected to point out the broader threat of progress itself, which has already placed our species in the position
- while Freeman spoke to the direct dangers of genetic engineering,
-
- Jul 2023
-
davidkorten.org davidkorten.org
-
The consequences of our current choices bear not juston us. They bear on the continued evolutionary unfoldingof life in the universe. This marks the scale of our currentresponsibility
- for: human impacts, MET, major evolutionary transition, progress trap, human responsibility to life, CCE, cumulative cultural evolution, playing God
- comment
- Very true, in fact our species is in the unprecedented position that
- human activity, and specifically our cumulative cultural evolution (CCE) now determines the biological / genetic evolutionary future not only of our own species, but of all life on earth.
- In other words, of evolution itself! -This is an awkward position as we have nowhere near the wisdom to play God and determine the future direction of evolution!
- References
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
here's also a kind of Shadow side to this approach which is which we could call maybe religios as opposed to religious in in 00:03:51 English it's religious o-s-e adjective and um this is very very common actually in ecological language whether it's in newspapers or books or anything music art anything that says that there needs 00:04:05 to be a very profound sudden massive change in ourselves um is is I think a dangerous
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, ecological realization, ecological awakening
- claim
- the idea that we need a profound, sudden and massive change in ourselves in a dangerous notion
- comment
- why?
- it presumes we have a deficit as an ecological being
- when in actual fact, we cannot be otherwise
- so instead, our job is to awaken our already ecological nature
- by this, we mean our deep, intrinsic ecological nature as ecological (interdependent) beings
- we humans have a strange and very limited kind of interdependence, which is exploitative to other people and other species
- we have to become aware of that culturally conditioned limitation
- claim
- for: progress trap, unintended consequence, ecological realization, ecological awakening
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
Where we get caught is thinking that we can identify a static snapshot in 00:13:20 an ecological process and get control over it, we can enact something upon it, and thinking that we can do that toward what has been perceived as a positive outcome. Without recognizing that with all of these different organisms that are changing each other all the time, we're actually going to make a mess.
-
for: progress trap
-
example
- progress trap
- quote
- Where we get caught is thinking that we can identify a static snapshot in an ecological process
- and get control over it, we can enact something upon it,
- and thinking that we can do that toward what has been perceived as a positive outcome.
- Without recognizing that with all of these different organisms that are changing each other all the time,
- we're actually going to make a mess. -author
- Nora Bateson
- quote
- progress trap
-
Tags
Annotators
URL
-
-
welikia.org welikia.org
-
Muir Web
- for Indra's Net of Jewels, progress trap
- definition
- Muir Web
- A diagram that shows all the relationships between species of a particular ecological habitat
- Muir Web
-
-
www.progresstrap.org www.progresstrap.org
-
The common definition of a progress trap is derived from the book’s cover text: “..it is the condition in which we find ourselves when science, technology and industry create more problems than they can solve. Often inadvertently.”
- for: progress trap
- definition
- quote
- progress trap
- A progress trap is the condition in which we find ourselves when science, technology and industry create more problems than they can solve. Often inadvertently.
- progress trap
- author
- Dan O'Leary
- source
-
-
canadiancor.com canadiancor.com
-
Since humanity is a small product of nature, he can by definition not control nature. To believe that he can is a delusion.
- for: progress trap
- quote
- Since humanity is a small product of nature, he can by definition not control nature. To believe that he can is a delusion.
- Author
- Dan O'Leary
-
Escaping The Progress Trap
-
for: progress trap, progress traps
-
Tttle
- Escaping The Progress Trap
- Author
- Gordon Kubanek
- Source
- Canadian Association for the Club of Rome
- https://canadiancor.com/escaping-the-progress-trap/
- Description
- Gordon Kubanek shares his review of Dan O'Leary's book, "Escaping the Progress Trap"
-
-
-
www.rollingstone.com www.rollingstone.com
-
If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d
- If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d get:
- an immediate rise in global temperatures of between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to the new study.
- (For reference: The climate has warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.)
- The warming would be concentrated over the major cities of the northern hemisphere,
- close to where most aerosols are emitted.
- In the hardest hit parts of highly-urbanized East Asia, for example,
- the complete removal of aerosols would likely have a bigger effect than all other sources of climate change combined.
- Temperatures in the Arctic could jump as much as 4 degrees Celsius – a catastrophe that would shove the region further toward a permanently ice-free state.
- an immediate rise in global temperatures of between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to the new study.
- If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d get:
-
a devil’s bargain: Aerosols are necessary for normal weather and help moderate rising temperatures, but they’re also killing us. Turns out have been unwittingly geoengineering for decades, and just like in the movies, it’s gone off the rails.
- Aerosol progress trap
- a devil’s bargain:
- Aerosols
- are necessary for normal weather and
- help moderate rising temperatures,
- but they’re also killing us.
- Turns out we have been unwittingly geoengineering for decades,
- and just like in the movies, it’s gone off the rails.
- Aerosol progress trap
-
- Title
- Devil’s Bargain: Why Aerosols Pose a Deadly Climate Change Threat
- Author
- Eric Holthaus
- Date
- Feb 8, 2018
- Source
- Title
-
-
-
- Title
- One Billion Happy
-
Author
- Mo Gawdat
-
Description
- Mo Gawdat was former chief business officer at Google X, Google's innovation center.
- Mo left Google after seeing the rapid pace of AI development was going to lead to a progress trap in which
- the risk of AI destroying human civilization is becoming real because AI will be learning from too many unhappy people whose trauma AI will learn and incorporate into its algorithms
- Hence, human happiness becomes paramount to prevent this catastrophe from happening
- See Ronald Wright's prescient quote
- Title
-
Over the next 15 to 20 years this is going to develop a computer that is much smarter 00:01:20 than all of us. We call that moment singularity.
- Singularity
- will happen within the next few decades
- Singularity
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
even though the existential threats are possible you're concerned with what humans teach I'm concerned 00:07:43 with humans with AI
- It is the immoral human being that is the real problem
- they will teach AI to be immoral and with its power, can end up destroying humanity
-
- Title
- Mo Gawdat Warns the Dangers of AI Are "Happening As We Speak"
- Author
- Piers Morgan Uncensored
- Title
-
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
fbs is added fbs prevents the replicating stem cells from committing suicide normally cells have a mechanism that tells them they're 00:06:29 growing in the wrong place and shuts it down this is normally a good thing and keeps different parts of the body developing properly but when cells are growing in a metal tank and not a body this warning system 00:06:42 needs to be turned off and for whatever reason fbs works almost completely universally when added to any type of cell
-
potential progress trap
- in vivo, an animal body has a mechanism to turn off stem cells when they are growing in the wrong place in the body. This regulates the body to grow properly.
- in lab grown meat, an artificial in vitro environment is created for the stem cells and they are encouraged to keep growing continuously (some critics compare this to cancerous growth)
- for UNKNOWN REASONS, FSB seems to prevent the mechanism from turning off cell growth, no matter what animal food species.
- the worrying thing here is that the scientific community does not know why FSB has this behavior.
-
Question
- What are the views of the regulatory agencies that have passed Lab grown meat on this subject?
-
-
there's one glaring problem here 00:05:11 with creating this animal-free meat it's not actually animal-free that special fbs serum i just mentioned that stands for fetal bovine serum which is collected from the dying fetuses of 00:05:25 slaughtered cows
- potential progress trap
- FBS
- Fetal Bovine Serum
- FBS
-
This is used for the growth of all kinds of stem cells, not just those from cows
- We do not know the full implications of mixing FBS from cows with all other species
-
Question
- What are the views of the regulatory agencies that have passed Lab grown meat on this subject?
- potential progress trap
-
a single muscle stem cell could be grown into one trillion muscle cell tubes
- potential progress trap
- if the seed stem cell has some unknown problem
- it will potentially be inherited by all descedents
- if the seed stem cell has some unknown problem
- potential progress trap
-
- Title
- Lab grown meat
- Author
- Real Science
- Publication
- Youtube video
- Title
-
-
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
-
we are using CRISPR [a non-GMO process] to engineer our cell lines to grow without the need for added growth factors,
- Question
- where are the progress traps?
- It's already meeting approvals in SIngapore and FDA in USA.
- Where are the hidden problems? -
- This article highlights some of the issues
- Question
-
-
www.sciencealert.com www.sciencealert.com
-
Their life-cycle assessment of current meat-growing processes – which has yet to be peer-reviewed – found cultured meat production could emit between four to 25 times more carbon dioxide per kilogram than regular beef and all its hidden costs, depending on the techniques used.
- sustainability life cycle assessment impacts
- University of California, Davis (UCD), Holtville researchers performed a life-cycle assessment of current meat-growing processes
- has not yet been peer-reviewed
- findings are that cultured meat production could emit between four to 25 times more carbon dioxide per kilogram than regular beef and all its hidden costs, depending on the techniques used.
- Pros
- cultured meat uses less land than herds of cattle or flocks of sheep,
- cultured meat uses less water and antibiotics,
- Cons
- laboratories to extract growth factors from animal serums,
- growing crops for sugars and vitamins.
- energy required to purify all of these broth ingredients to a high standard before they can be fed to the growing meat lumps.
- energy-intensive, extreme level of purification is needed to prevent introducing microbes to the culture.
- "Otherwise the animal cells won't grow, because the bacteria will multiply much faster,
- energy-intensive, extreme level of purification is needed to prevent introducing microbes to the culture.
- University of California, Davis (UCD), Holtville researchers performed a life-cycle assessment of current meat-growing processes
- sustainability life cycle assessment impacts
-
- Title
- Lab-Grown Meat Has a Big Problem Very Few People Know About
- Author
- Tessa Koumoundouros
- Publication
- Science Alert
- Date June 2, 2023
- Title
-
-
kortina.nyc kortina.nyc
-
finite time singularity
-
finite time singularity
- when the mathematical solution to the growth equation becomes infinitely large at some finite time
-
comment
- this is also salient for the accumulation of unresolved progress traps
- the Anthropocene can perhaps be viewed as the occurence of finite time singularities due to unresolved problems arising from progress traps that innovation is too slow to solve
-
-
- Jun 2023
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
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scary smart is saying the problem with our world today is not that 00:55:36 humanity is bad the problem with our world today is a negativity bias where the worst of us are on mainstream media okay and we show the worst of us on social media
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"if we reverse this
- if we have the best of us take charge
- the best of us will tell AI
- don't try to kill the the enemy,
- try to reconcile with the enemy
- don't try to create a competitive product
- that allows me to lead with electric cars,
- create something that helps all of us overcome global climate change
- that allows me to lead with electric cars,
- that's the interesting bit
- the actual threat ahead of us is
- not the machines at all
- the machines are pure potential pure potential
- the threat is how we're going to use them"
- not the machines at all
- the actual threat ahead of us is
- don't try to kill the the enemy,
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comment
- again, see Ronald Wright's quote above
- it's very salient to this context
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the biggest threat facing Humanity today is humanity in the age of the machines we were abused we will abuse this
- comment
- the machines are only coded to do what we tell them to do
- Ronald' Wright's quote is very salient here
- comment
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there is a scenario 00:18:21 uh possibly a likely scenario where we live in a Utopia where we really never have to worry again where we stop messing up our our planet because intelligence is not a bad commodity more 00:18:35 intelligence is good the problems in our planet today are not because of our intelligence they are because of our limited intelligence
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limited (machine) intelligence
- cannot help but exist
- if the original (human) authors of the AI code are themselves limited in their intelligence
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comment
- this limitation is essentially what will result in AI progress traps
- Indeed,
- progress and their shadow artefacts,
- progress traps,
- is the proper framework to analyze the existential dilemma posed by AI
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- May 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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I think we are very good at honing in on the ways in which the world remains imperfect and there are ways in which it is egregiously unfair today 00:43:57 but we discount the fact that so many of the gains of the last 100 to 250 years have been enabled by the Industrial Revolution
- "I think we are very good at honing in on the ways in which the world remains imperfect and there are ways in which it is egregiously unfair today but we discount the fact that so many of the gains of the last 100 to 250 years have been enabled by the Industrial Revolution have been enabled by harnessing the hubris of harnessing fossil fuels harnessing more energy from the environment allowing us to agglomerate in cities which when you do this when you collect all of people in a room like this you're actually creating a more powerful hive mind by bringing intelligence together so that it can share ideas at closer range and it can innovate faster and through that for all the trade-offs which are undeniable there's many negatives that have come from that we're very quick to Discount when we talk about future biomedicine very quick to Discount things like polio vaccines and the virtual eradication of that disease along with smallpox of the fact that we have got so many infectious diseases under control we struggle with the big Killers like cancer and heart disease at the moment those are sort of like the biggest Global threats um but through basic Innovations through Modern Sanitation through better housing all of which the Industrial Revolution enabled we have lifted so many people out of poverty and yes we created new tears of poverty but overall fewer people are living in abject poverty today than in the past we have the higher average global life expectancies child mortality is plummeted the fact that you can give birth by cesarean section rather than in the case of my mother giving birth to a dead child which is what would have happened to me because my umbilical cord was wrapped twice around my neck the fact that technology can intervene and bring us so many of these Spoils of modernity that we readily take for granted I don't know where there's obviously attention but I don't know at what point you say we want to hit pause or indeed we want to go backwards again the challenge sort of remains like we agree we're barreling on this trajectory if we're not going to get off it then we need to think about how we manage it as well as possible and that means we need to think about how AI becomes a healthy part of our world or indeed if it can cut it can we co-exist with AI"
- Comment
- The progress trap is the great unseen elephant in the room of progress
- when we understand how the limits of human nature create the shadow side of progress every step of the way,
- it is then no surprise or paradox that we arrive at this place called the Anthropocene - where the climax of technological progress and - potential for complete extinction sit side-by-side
- https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&tag=progress+trap
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I would submit that were we to find ways of engineering our quote-unquote ape brains um what would all what what would be very likely to happen would not be um 00:35:57 some some sort of putative human better equipped to deal with the complex world that we have it would instead be something more like um a cartoon very much very very much a 00:36:10 repeat of what we've had with the pill
- Comment
- Mary echos Ronald Wright's progress traps
- Comment
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there is this growing Chasm between our Paleolithic brains and what we're designed for and the niches we're built to inhabit and this new technologically infused world that we're living in
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Comment
- Elise says
- "there is this growing Chasm between
- our Paleolithic brains and
- what we're designed for and
- the niches we're built to inhabit and this new technologically infused world that we're living in
- We have changed our environment so rapidly
and so radically and we have not kept pace with that change
- so either we keep changing the environment or
- we change ourselves to fit the environment and
- I think the fact that we're consistently making these commodified decisions in which
- we do expunge more and more of our of our Humanity in favor of profit
- in favor of short-term decisions i
- n favor of such abysmal thinking when it comes to complex systems like the human body
- it is a testament to the fact that these brains are not built for this world and
- we are not going to be adequate stewards of this system
- that is now so complex that to keep it held together
- you actually need a new form of intelligence beyond what we are"
- "there is this growing Chasm between
- Elise Bohan' statements perfectly echo Ronald Wright's famous quote on the nature of progress traps
- “To use a computer analogy, we are running twenty-first-century software on hardware last upgraded 50,000 years ago or more. This may explain quite a lot of what we see in the news.”
- https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goodreads.com%2Fwork%2Fquotes%2F321797-a-short-history-of-progress&group=world
- Elise says
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comment
- I think, however, that Wright would agree more with Mary and less with Elise in Elise's contention that
- we need a new form of intelligence beyond what we are
- applying progress to our own cognitive abilities
- may create the biggest progress trap of all
- I think, however, that Wright would agree more with Mary and less with Elise in Elise's contention that
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www.goodreads.com www.goodreads.com
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“To use a computer analogy, we are running twenty-first-century software on hardware last upgraded 50,000 years ago or more. This may explain quite a lot of what we see in the news.”
- quote worthy
- “To use a computer analogy, we are running twenty-first-century software on hardware last upgraded 50,000 years ago or more. This may explain quite a lot of what we see in the news.”
- Ronald Wright
- quote worthy
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- Apr 2023
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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"The transition to renewable energy, it is based on a longstanding ideology. And the longstanding ideology is that human ingenuity can solve our problems." Lisi Krall explains the downsides of renenwable energy, arguing that it isn't the answer to our problems.
Where there is a problem to be solved, there is a focus of attention Where there is a focus of attention, there is simplification of a complex system Where there is simplification of a complex system, there is a vast amount of knowledge relationships that is ignored Where this is a vast amount of ignored knowledge relationships, there is the potential for a progress trap
The systemic problem is the way our form of progress formulates problems and the inherent (over) simplification that comes with.that.
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beiner.substack.com beiner.substack.com
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So what does a conscious universe have to do with AI and existential risk? It all comes back to whether our primary orientation is around quantity, or around quality. An understanding of reality that recognises consciousness as fundamental views the quality of your experience as equal to, or greater than, what can be quantified.Orienting toward quality, toward the experience of being alive, can radically change how we build technology, how we approach complex problems, and how we treat one another.
Key finding Paraphrase - So what does a conscious universe have to do with AI and existential risk? - It all comes back to whether our primary orientation is around - quantity, or around - quality. - An understanding of reality - that recognises consciousness as fundamental - views the quality of your experience as - equal to, - or greater than, - what can be quantified.
- Orienting toward quality,
- toward the experience of being alive,
- can radically change
- how we build technology,
- how we approach complex problems,
- and how we treat one another.
Quote - metaphysics of quality - would open the door for ways of knowing made secondary by physicalism
Author - Robert Persig - Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance // - When we elevate the quality of each our experience - we elevate the life of each individual - and recognize each individual life as sacred - we each matter - The measurable is also the limited - whilst the immeasurable and directly felt is the infinite - Our finite world that all technology is built upon - is itself built on the raw material of the infinite
//
- Orienting toward quality,
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