2 Matching Annotations
  1. Sep 2023
    1. these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
      • for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
      • highlight

        • the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
          • current climate models
          • global carbon estimates
          • IPCC
        • the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
        • the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
      • question

        • Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
  2. Dec 2022
    1. so let's take the headline budgets and let's adjust them to today November 00:13:16 2022. so these are the the two probabilities that we're using um that's the budget that we have left for two degrees Centigrade that's the budget we've got for 1.5 and these are the years you have 00:13:29 so you know 1.5 nine and a half years of current emissions if the current emissions stayed static we'd have nine and a half years oh a bit worrying um that's about half a percent a bit 00:13:43 under half a percent every month for two degrees centigrade and one percent so every month we're using one percent of the 50 50 chance of 1.5 degrees Centigrade which is not anyway a safe 00:13:54 threshold every month one percent of the budget

      !- key takeaway : time remaining to decarbonize to 1.5 Deg C limit - 9.5 years remaining referenced to Nov 2022 - consuming roughly 1% of remaining 380 Gigaton budget every month, or about 11 % every year.