David Basiji: You mentioned that you were pessimistic in the short term and optimistic in the long term. I would characterize myself as pessimistic in the short term, and, well, not optimistic in the long term. I was wondering if you could give me some hope, and maybe explain your thinking on longer-term optimism?SB: I'm 83 and counting, and I've seen so many end-of-the-world stories over time - some of which I bought into. I thought that my old teacher, Paul Ehrlich, was right about population, and I did public things in support of his views. He was almost completely upside down, in terms of what at the time was called the “demographic transition.” And then there was the energy crisis, there was peak oil. My environmentalist friends were saying, "The end of the world is coming, not just because of population, but because we're going to run out of oil, and then we'll go crazy." Everyone said that the end of the world was coming, and it didn't. So, I've seen so many ends of the world come and go. I don't believe in them anymore.The threats often are very clear and the solutions are not - that's understandable because the threat is clear and present! You can usually see a couple of solution paths being offered. Well, the ones that will work, you don't know yet, they're still being invented. This relates to the book Scale, by Geoffrey West, which looks at how cities do everything faster - they create problems faster than anything else in the world, but they create solutions to the problems faster than the problems. And so cities are these places where solutions just pour forth at civilization scale. In the pace layer diagram that I did for civilization, there's a rural version and a city version. The city version of it goes way, way faster - people pay attention to what fashion and commerce are proposing, they occasionally mess with how the governance works, and certainly, infrastructure gets cranked out more rapidly in cities.
问:你提到,你在短期内是悲观的,在长期内是乐观的。我认为自己在短期内是悲观的,而在长期内则是不乐观的。我想知道你是否可以给我一些希望,也许可以解释一下你对长期乐观主义的看法?
斯图尔特·布兰德:我已经83岁了,随着时间的推移,我已经看到了许多世界末日的故事——其中一些我相信了。我认为我的老师保罗·埃利希对人口的看法是正确的,我做了一些公开的事情来支持他的观点。就当时所谓的"人口转型"而言,他的观点几乎完全颠倒了。然后有了能源危机,有了石油峰值。我的环保主义者朋友们说,"世界末日即将到来,不仅仅是因为人口,还因为我们将耗尽石油,然后我们会疯掉。"每个人都说世界末日要来了,而它没有。所以,我已经看到了这么多的世界末日来了又走。我不再相信它们了。
威胁往往是非常明确的,而解决方案并不明确--这是可以理解的,因为威胁是明确的,而且是存在的!你通常可以看到几个解决方案。你通常可以看到有几个解决方案的路径被提供。好吧,那些能行得通的,你还不知道,它们还在被发明中。这与杰弗里·韦斯特的《规模》一书有关,该书探讨了城市如何更快地做任何事情——它们创造问题的速度比世界上任何其他地方都快,但它们创造问题的解决方案比问题更快。因此,城市是这些地方,解决方案以文明的规模涌现出来。在我为文明做的步伐层图中,有一个农村版本和一个城市版本。城市版本的发展速度要快得多——人们关注时尚和商业的提议,他们偶尔会扰乱治理的运作,当然,基础设施在城市里的发展也更快。