Busy day on B.1.1.529 - a variant of great concern - The world should provide support to South Africa and Africa and not discriminate or isolate it! By protecting and supporting it, we will protect the world! A plea for billionaires and financial institutions. 1/8 tweets

Today on #TheDoseCBC: a frank discussion about the new #Omicron sub-variant with virologist @angie_rasmussen, who says BA.2 isn't necessarily more pathogenic — but we need to proceed with caution. Learn more: http://bit.ly/3gnlPak

I think when we're okay with 1000 people dying each week from a preventable illness, and say this is good news, maybe we need to recalibrate where we've gotten to. When we say, a crisis leading to 100K cases is ok, because it may not get us to Jan '21, maybe it's time to reflect.

In effect govt, media, and sadly even some scientists have moved the target to it's ok as long as it's not like the catastrophe it was at x point in time - which means we just tolerate more infection, rather than consider that perhaps we should do better.

Now we're happy to accept 30-50,000 deaths/year, despite all the research on COVID-19, all the technological advancements. It hasn't meant we accept less suffering as a society, it's bizarrely just meant we tolerate more infection as long as deaths are *less than* before.

The reason this worries me - is that I think two years ago, the idea of 170,000 deaths happening over 4 months (many avoidable), and 1.2 million people, including 77000 children getting chronic illness would've been far more shocking than it is now.

We've had 20 months of learning. So why are we still ready to accept things getting as bad as Jan '21 or March '20 before we act. Surely, with all we've gained in 20 months we should be less accepting of people getting ill & dying, rather than comparing with Jan.

And of course we have 1.2 million with long COVID with children seeing a doubling in 4 months. But all this is okay, because it's not as bad as Jan, or March last year. When the pandemic hit in March, we were thoroughly unprepared.

Many pointed to summer in the UK saying it was a success because 'freedom day' didn't translate to anything like Jan 21 or March '20. No it didn't, but >18000 people died since (many deaths may have been avoided with simple measures like mask mandates, mitigations in schools)

Some brief thoughts on the concerning relativism I've seen creeping into media, and scientific rhetoric over the past 20 months or so - the idea that things are ok because they're better *relative to* a point where things got really really bad.

The CBC Conference 2021 programme has just been released and is packed with thought-provoking talks, international keynote speakers, symposia, and plenty of networking opportunities and social exchanges for delegates. Register now! http://tinyurl.com/5xwa7c27 #cbcconf2021

There are 3 types of disaster responses: •panicking or freezing; •taking action; and •ignoring the disaster. That last one is the most common response to sudden disasters, like when, for example, a ferry sinks. I didn’t expect it would also be most common in a pandemic.

PSA: When you say "there were 6 cases in 6.8 million doses therefore we can expect about 1 in a million incidents going forward", you're doing a bad statistical estimation in your head and statisticians (like me) can give you a million reasons how this can go wrong.

NEW POLL: The J&J pause makes people *more confident* in vaccines, not less. M-O-R-E C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T

NHS website now open for the over 45s to book their vaccineBook a coronavirus vaccinationBook your coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination appointments using this service.nhs.uk

BREAKING: The government has confirmed that ALL over 50s have now been offered a vaccine, meeting its 15th April target 3 days early. The under 50s will now begin to be called forward for vaccinations from this week, starting with those in their late 40s.

There are some news outlets & politicians incorrectly reporting and criticising respectively MHRA for advising against use of OxAZ in under 30s. Neither MHRA nor EMA have done this. JCVI have expressed a preference for alternative vaccines for healthy under 30s in the UK context

A new US vaccination record for a Wednesday reporting 2.9 million Now 1 in 3 Americans have at least 1 dose

The JCVI/MHRA recommendation to restrict Oxford/AZ in under-30s in the UK (where there is 'low' exposure risk) is *consistent* with the EMA recommendation not to do so in Europe (where there is 'medium' or 'high' exposure risk) meaning the risk/benefit balance changes.

... high exposure risk

... medium exposure risk

Here are the slides for: low exposure risk (as in the UK)

Balancing risks from Covid against the potential harms from the AZ vaccine. A great visualization of the relative risks from the Winton Centre @d_spiegel This is for low exposure risk (as now in the UK). Balance changes when higher exposure risk (eg in some parts of Europe)

According to @PEI_Germany about 2,7 million people have now been vaccinated with AstraZenaca vaccine in Germany. Amongst these: 31 cerebral venous thromboses (29 women) 19 of these also with thrombocytopenia reported 9 deaths Clearly Germany has to change recommendations for now

According to @PEI_Germany about 2,7 million people have now been vaccinated with AstraZenaca vaccine in Germany. Amongst these: 31 cerebral venous thromboses (29 women) 19 of these also with thrombocytopenia reported 9 deaths Clearly Germany has to change recommendations for now

And how much I value his valuable input, work and friendship.

I’m an introvert and being thrust into the centre of this controversy has been quite confronting. I’ve had a little processing time right now and I have a few things to say. I won’t repeat @GidMK and his wonderful thread but I will say 1 this slander of us both has been 1/n

“If we look in individuals under 60, then we do see more cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, than we would expect to see from the background”, says Arlett.

CVST is much more common in women in general and about 2/3 of AZ vaccinees in Europe were women, says Peter Arlett. "this is why it is at this stage, difficult to disentangle the fact that there has been a preponderance of reports of this very rare potential side effect in women"

I asked about numbers for Europe: 62 cases of cerebral venous thromboses so far, says Cooke with 9,2 million people vaccinated with AZ. "If we look at the age-adjusted exposure, we calculate a risk of one per 100,000 in the under 60s."

“Our position has not changed”, says @EMA_News head Emer Cooke about AZ vaccine. “According to the current scientific knowledge, there is no evidence that would support restricting the use of this vaccine in any population."

"reports emerging of rare types of multiple thrombosis, bleeding, and thrombocytopenia .. similar to disseminated intravasc. coagulation ... in otherwise healthy individuals shortly after receiving ..AstraZeneca ..vaccine. These outcomes are not included in the present analysis."

Spanish Flu of 1918 had idiots: "Authorities shut down businesses & some people complained about having to wear masks".  Covid 2021: We have usforthem . #masksinclass

After 365 days of aggregating COVID data, the volunteers at http://covidtracking.com are passing the baton back to @HHSGov & @CDCgov. They filled a void when our government failed us. They kept us informed & held our leaders accountable. For all that & more, we thank you

One year ago tonight, in front of millions of loyal viewers, Fox's @SeanHannity accused the media of "scaring the living hell out of people" about the coronavirus and said "I see it, again, as like, let's bludgeon Trump with this new hoax."

Follow the link https://vimeo.com/474660108 to watch a recording of the recent seminar by @JohnSMcConnell, Editor of @TheLancetInfDis -- "#COVID-19: reality and misinformation"

7-day moving average for #CovidUK deaths is now 200 deaths per day. That’s 1400 deaths in the last week. In Sep when CSA Vallance said we need to stop increase to avoid “200 deaths per day in Nov” many doubted/mocked him as a ‘scaremonger’. Deaths still rising & not in Nov yet..

Media: worst ever week for Test & Trace; they only reached 59.9% of identified contacts. But the % reached went up this week for contacts managed by local health protection teams AND for contacts not managed by them (What used to be called 'complex' and 'non-complex' cases.) How?

So the video Bannon streamed live saying Dr. Anthony Fauci and Christopher Wray should be beheaded has been on Facebook for 10 hours and has 200,000 views. 10 hours. Remember that next time Zuckerberg talks about all the moderators and A.I. they have.

If you think you can make your own clear-headed choice about whether Christmas gathering is safe, think twice. We judge risk partly in proportion to the amount of freedom we're given. We think, "If Christmas is allowed, it must be safe." We all do it. We are lousy risk assessors.

If that's what the Government is hearing from its scientists, HOW can it justify its policy of Covid Secret Santa?

Wow. SAGE scientist Prof Andrew Hayward on Newsnight unequivocal: "I won't be getting my family together for Christmas." Young people and old people together a recipe for disaster/snatching defeat from jaws of victory/wait till Easter and have a proper get-together. #Newsnight

Over past week we got 11.4 Million doses into arms 5.6 Million were 1st doses 5.8 Million were 2nd doses That's a problem Beyond debating delay of 2nd dose States should be using up supplies Today, there are 21M doses sitting on shelves Unnecessary. Unhelpful