The Public and Its Climate: Exploring the Relationship Between Public Discourse and Opinion on Global Warming

Brian Shrecka* & Arnold Vedlitz

Second, for the exchange to be truly deliberative, citizens must be open to receiving and considering this new information and new arguments and, ultimately, to changing their minds when confronted with convincing new arguments or contradictory evidence that make their current positions indefensible.

We fielded a national survey to collect opinions, knowledge, and engagement on climate change, including individuals’ informal public discourse with family members, friends, and coworkers

However, the polarization on the issue of climate change calls into question what the result of more public discourse might look like. Would the result be an emerging consensus toward belief in the reality of climate change—and accompanying support for public policies to curb human impacts? Or would the outcome be more of the same polarization that we see now?

These data give us a unique opportunity to analyze empirically how, and how much, the U.S. public engages in discussion of this very important but technically complex and politically contested issue.

How were human beings created? • Where did they obtain their knowledge, and how did they provide for themselves?

What was the source of life? • What were the differences between Earth-mother and Sky-father? • Where did the moon and stars come from?

The last global ice age trapped much of the world’s water in enormous continental glaciers. Twenty thousand years ago, ice sheets, some a mile thick, extended across North America as far south as modern-day Illinois and Ohio.

“Consumers will conclude that these people have not done anything in spite of what they’ve been saying, and that becomes a credibility issue,” he said. “For a company like Chipotle, which talks a lot about the integrity of its food, that’s seriously damaging.”

Today” show to apologize to the people who became sick most recently. “I’m sorry for the people who got sick. They’re having a tough time and I feel terrible about that,” Mr. Ells said in an interview.

The company’s shares dropped $19.07, to $522.01, after the new outbreak came to light. The stock is down 30 percent from its high of $757.77 in August.

Chipotle says it is working to put in place programs to monitor the safety of each of the 68 ingredients it uses, using methods like high-resolution testing and additional food-safety training for its employees

The same bacteria has sickened 53 people in eight other states

60 samples of every 2,000 pounds of steak will be tested before it's sent to stores.

"Food With Integrity"

Onions will be dipped in boiling water to kill germs before they're chopped. Raw chicken will be marinated in resealable plastic bags, rather than in bowls. Cilantro will be added to freshly cooked rice so the heat gets rid of microbes in the garnish.

So they will remain chopped on in restaurants, along with lemons, limes, and jalapenos. All will now be blanched to kill germs.

No single food item has been identified as a source of illness.

The restaurant chain is also increasing food safety training of its employees and making improvements to its ingredient testing

More E. coli cases linked to Chipotle; may be a different outbreak

Symptoms, which include diarrhea and abdominal pain, usually begin two to eight days after a person has been exposed to the bacteria and resolve within a week. Some cases are severe and patients can develop hemolytic uremic syndrome, or HUS, which is a type of kidney failure. There have been no cases of HUS or deaths from this outbreak, although 20 of those who have become ill have been hospitalized.

等值

提取

境外

连续多日

同日

隔日

防范

警惕

个人

分拆

获悉

加强

下发

独家

外汇局

购汇

独家：外汇局下发特急文件加强蚂蚁搬家式购汇管理

特急

中国的政治风险远超经济风险

幸灾乐祸

无可否认

远超

缘何

蜇伏10年的外汇黄牛重现街头：需求多来自炒美股港股

黄牛

蜇伏

量化宽松

近期动态很重要，因为它表明，中国当局尚未找到解决这三个难题的办法。更糟糕的是，他们在过去7年里所尝试的权宜之计甚至已使困境变得更麻烦。或许，市场先生已预感到，中国的处境将是多么的艰难，而中国可能会采取的一些选项实际上会造成多么大的动荡。中国的选项包括货币贬值、超低利率，甚至还有量化宽松。如果真是如此，当前市场动荡或许并不显得愚蠢。全球储蓄过剩可能变得更严重。那会让所有人都受到影响。

现在，这给中国当局留下了三个巨大的经济难题。第一个是清理过去金融过度行为的遗产，同时避免发生金融危机。第二个是重塑经济，使增长更依赖私人与公共部门的消费，减轻对超高水平投资的依赖。第三个是在实现以上所有目标的同时维持总需求的强劲增长。

可持续

这种对总需求不足的担忧由来已久。自从西方的金融危机以来，这就成了一个非常令人担心的问题，因为危机摧毁了对于中国出口的需求。正因如此，中国自己推动了一次信贷助长的投资繁荣。潜在产出增长率下降的同时，投资占GDP的比例却在显著地（并令人担忧地）升高。长期来看，这两种状况的组合是不可持续的。

边际回报率

假设这是真的。根据官方数据，2014年固定资产投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的44%。投资数字有可能比GDP数字更准确。但是，一个经济体的投资占到GDP的44%，增长率却仅为5%，这在经济上合理吗？不合理。这些数据反映了超低的（如果不是负值的话）边际回报率。如果这样，投资可能大幅下降。如果首先砍掉浪费性投资的话，这或许不会降低潜在增长率，但将造成需求大减。中国当局在做的每一件事都表明，他们担心的正是这一点。

中国经济已然放缓。“新常态”的说法承认了这一现实。但共识经济学公司(Consensus Economics)提出了不同的增长预测。新预测的平均值显示，在截至2015年第四季度的一年内，中国经济增速将仅为5.3%（见图表）。

看待近期事态，必须考虑到更深层次的担忧。问题在于，中国当局是否有能力、并且愿意实现经济从投资驱动转型为消费主导，同时维持总需求。如果能办到，中国经济还将保持6%至7%的增长率。否则，就可能发生经济和政治动荡。

以上并非中国当局的行为让人有理由担心的唯一方面。其他方面还有8月11日的人民币贬值。就本身而言，这不算重大事件，迄今人民币兑美元汇率累计跌幅仅为2.8%。但人民币贬值有重要的含义。中国当局想要大幅降息的空间，如同本周二降息那样。这再次突出显示了他们对经济健康状况的担心。另一个可能的含义是，北京方面或许在寻求重振出口驱动的增长。我发现这一点难以置信，因为它的全球后果将是毁灭性的。但至少，对其破坏稳定的可能性感到担忧是合理的。最后一个可能的含义是，中国当局开始准备容忍资本外流。如果是这样，美国将会自食其果。华盛顿方面一直敦促中国放开资本项目管制。那么，美国或许不得不忍受破坏稳定的短期后果：人民币贬值。

重振

然而，由于两个相互关联的原因，中国股市行情有了更重要的含义。第一个原因是，中国当局决定押上巨大的资源、甚至他们的政治权威，试图阻止股市泡沫破裂（这一努力没有成功并非意外）。第二个是，他们一定是出于担心经济才这么做的。如果他们担心到对这样渺茫的希望下注的地步，我们其他人也应当感到担忧。

重塑

权宜之计

押

敦促

自食其果

难以置信

暴涨暴跌

容忍

新常态

已然

下注

渺茫

中国股市并不正常。它甚至比大多数股市更像赌场，每个玩家都希望找到一个“更大的傻瓜”，在最后一刻之前把价格过高的筹码传递到他们手上。这样的市场注定会暴涨暴跌。但这种变幻莫测的行情，应该反映不了中国的宏观经济状况。

在中国股市的带领下，全球股市确实已开始了调整。从6月的顶点至周二，上证综指下跌了43%。不过，中国股市较2014年初仍高出50%。10年内第二次中国股市泡沫内爆似乎仍未结束。（见图表）。

我没有聪明到理解“市场先生”(Mr Market)行为的程度，也没有愚蠢到认为自己能理解他的地步。“市场先生”是投资大师本杰明•格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)虚构出的患有燥狂抑郁症的人物。但是，市场先生的确处于抑郁之中。背后的原因似乎是对中国的担忧。市场先生的焦躁是合理的吗？简单说，是的。

我们必须分清哪些事值得担忧，哪些事不值得。中国股市下跌就属于后一类。真正值得担忧的是，中国当局明显连一次股市泡沫破裂都没有能力很好地应对，但他们面对的任务却非常之艰巨。

为什么应该担心中国？

当局

宏观经济

变幻莫测

筹码

内爆

下跌

上证综指

非常之

破裂

泡沫

焦躁

担忧

的确

抑郁

燥狂

虚构

愚蠢

Mr Market

and Frank R.

You won't get sick immediately from eating old cooking oil, but having oil that has been sitting around for a while means the oil has very likely gone rancid.

According to both Ukrainian Armed Forces and Russian Federation Armed Forces officers at the observation point, an unidentified “third party” was provoking the two sides.

Интересно, что в познеровском монологе на путинском ТВ картина дебатов выглядела несколько иначе. Мэтр отечественного телевидения заявил, что дебаты закончились "почти вничью" (49% за "диалог", 51% — против), после чего пустился в рассуждения о невежественной канадской аудитории, будто бы ничего не знающей о России и находящейся во власти пропаганды. Простим господину Познеру, что он — случайно или по старой советской привычке — "подрезал" процентик у оппонентов. Гораздо важнее, что он скромно умолчал о том факте, что изначально аудитория гораздо больше симпатизировала именно его позиции, а изменение настроений аудитории — это результат дебатов, которые Познер с Коэном проиграли, а не мифической антироссийской пропаганды. Подобное поведение иначе как потерей лица не назовешь. В конце концов, нет ничего постыдного в том, чтобы проиграть в честном поединке, а вот заниматься передергиваниями — это действительно позор.

Chapter 1, The Art of Community We begin the book with a bird’s-eye view of how communities function at a social science level. We cover the underlying nuts and bolts of how people form communities, what keeps them involved, and the basis and opportunities behind these interactions. Chapter 2, Planning Your Community Next we carve out and document a blueprint and strategy for your community and its future growth. Part of this strategy includes the target objectives and goals and how the community can be structured to achieve them. PREFACE xix Chapter 3, Communicating Clearly At the heart of community is communication, and great communicators can have a tremendously positive impact. Here we lay down the communications backbone and the best practices associated with using it

The Philosophy of Intellectual Property