2 Matching Annotations
  1. Jul 2022
  2. bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over whichclimates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate ofa given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) fornear-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting thevulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversityand society are to be prevented.

      Read this abstract and let the profound implications sink in!

      In other words, climate departure will occur REGARDLESS OF WHICH RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is taken, whether it is the best or the worst path as defined by IPCC, climate departure will happen! (Climate departure is defined in the second paragraph of the paper) Using historical data between 1860 and 2005 for defining normative climate around the globe, If the worst IPCC emissions scenario (RCP85) happens, climate departure (projected near-surface air temp of the average location on earth) around the globe at the average location happens by 2047 (+/- 14 years). if the BEST IPCC emissions scenario (RCP45) happens, then.climate departure still happens but moves beyond historical variability by 2069 (+/-18 years)

      In other words, NO MATTER WHAT RCP of the ones IPCC publishes we take, climate departure is going to happen! How does the planet plan for such a drastic shift of every ecosystem on the globe? If it is unavoidable, then resiliency will be a key intervention.

  3. Jul 2017