I think that the superstar effect will only become more important moving forward. That's because lots more people will use AI, and each person will use AI systems much more heavily.
大多数人认为随着AI普及，薪酬差距可能会缩小或趋于稳定。但作者认为，随着AI用户数量和使用频率的增加，'超级明星效应'只会变得更加重要，顶级AI研究者的薪酬差距可能会进一步扩大，甚至出现1亿美元的年薪也不够的情况。
for - economic growth - physical limits to - reductio ad absurdum - physical absurdity of continuing current energy and waste heat trends into the near future
paper details - title - Limits to Economic Growth - author - Thomas W. Murphy Jr. - date - 21 July, 2022 - publication - Nature Physics, comment, online - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6
summary - Physicist Thomas W. Murphy employs reductio ab adsurdium logic to prove the fallacy of the assumptions of his argument - In this case, the argument is that we can indefinitely continue to sustain economic growth at rates that have held steady at about 2-3% per annum since the early 1900s. - Using both idealistic and simplified energy and waste heat calculations of energy and waste heat compounding at 2-3% per annum (or 10x per century), Murphy shows the absurd conclusions of continuing these current trends of energy and waste heat emissions on a global scale. - The implications are that physics and thermodynamics will naturally constrain us to plateau to a steady state economy in which the majority of economic activity needs to not depend on physically intensive
from - Planet Critical podcast - 6th Mass Extinction - interview with science journalist Peter Brannen - https://hyp.is/66oSJD-AEe-rN08IjlMu5A/docdrop.org/video/cP8FXbPrEiI/
An examplein the energy domain demonstrates theabsurdity of indefinite growth in the physicalrealm.
for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projection example of recent energy trends
-absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projections - Energy growth has typically been 2–3% per year since early 1900's. - This is approximately equivalent to 10x each century - Present-day energy output is 18 TW and extrapolates to - - approx.100 TW in 2100, - approx. 1,000 TW in 2200, etc. - In 400 years, from today, we would exceed the total solar power incident on Earth - In 1300 years from today, we would exceed the entire output of the Sun in all directions - In 2400 years from today, we would exceed the energy output of all 100 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy - This last jump is made impossible by the fact that even light cannot cross the galaxy in fewer than 100,000 years. - Hence, physics puts a hard limit on how long our energy growth enterprise could possibly continue
Another way to frame physicallimitations to growth is in terms of wasteheat, which is the end product of nearlyall energetic utilization on Earth.
for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends
absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends - At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. - But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. - Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription.
e first present the updated socio-economic trends in Figure 1 as global aggregates as in theoriginal set of 12 socio-economic graphs. We have also now, where the data permit, split ten of thesocio-economic graphs into trends for the OECD countries, for the so-called BRICS countries(Brazil, Russia, India, China (including Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan where applicable) andSouth Africa), and for the rest of the world (Figure 2). OECD members are here defined as coun-tries that were members in 2010 and their membership status was applied to the whole data set,which in some cases goes as far back as 1750.
Socio-economic trends are split into three groups: OECD, BRICS and all other countries. This split reveals the unequal distribution of the indicators.
In addition to broad economic trends affecting domestic politics evenly, Fisher also notes the uneven distribution of effects stemming from intellectual property rights (1999, Sect. II. C.). The positive effects of intellectual property rights accrue strongl y to a small number of rights - holders (the paper assumes that there are no significant negative effects to rights - holders); for this reason, rights - holders have significant motive (and potentially greater means) to overcome the significant barriers to acti ve political lobbying.