for: polycrisis, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute Royal Roads University - Changemakers Speakers Series, etymology - polylcrisis

Talk: Hope in the Polycrisis

Date: 2023

SUMMARY

• Thomas Homer-Dixon is a leading complex systems scientist and director of the Cascade Institute, which he co-founded at Royal Roads University in Victoria, B.C., Canada, to study the polycrisis and identify strategic high leverage interventions that could rapidly shift humanity's trajectory in the next few critical years.
• The talk, entitled "Hope in the polycriisis" chronicles Homer-Dixon's multi-decade journey to understand the convergence of crisis happening in the world today.

• In a real sense, the evolution of his thinking on these complex problems are reflected in the series of books he has written over the years, culminating in the 2023 book "Commanding Hope", based on a theory of hope:

  • Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, 1999). - a book showing how other factors combine with environmental stress to produce violence.
  • “The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity?,” which appeared in Population and Development Review in 1995
  • “Resource Scarcity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth?" ?” coauthored with Edward Barbier, which appeared in Ambio (1999)
  • The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (2006), examined the threat to global stability of simultaneous and interacting demographic, environmental, economic, and political stresses. This led to examining energy as a major factor in our modern society.
  • "Commanding Hope: The Power we have to Renew a World in Peril"
    • https://commandinghope.com/

• Homer-Dixon also talks about practical solutions, His team at Casacade Institute is researching a promising technology called ultra-deep geothermal, which could provide unlimted energy at energy densities comprable to fossil fuels.

• He finishes his talk with his theory of Hope and how a "Robust" hope can be the key to a successful rapid transition.

etymology - polycrisis

• https://polycrisis.org/lessons/where-did-the-term-polycrisis-come-from/
• Complexity theorists Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern first used the term polycrisis in their 1999 book, Homeland Earth, to argue that the world faces
  • “no single vital problem, but many vital problems, and it is this complex intersolidarity of problems, antagonisms, crises, uncontrolled processes, and the general crisis of the planet that constitutes the number one vital problem" (p. 74).
• South African sociologist and sustainable transitions theorist Mark Swilling then adopted the term to capture
  • “a nested set of globally interactive socio-economic, ecological and cultural-institutional crises that defy reduction to a single cause” (2013, p. 98).
• Climate change, rising inequality, and the threat of financial crises interact in complex ways that multiply their overall impact (Swilling 2013, 2019).

for: adjacency - outdated government institutions - delegitimization - authoritarianism

adjacency between

• outdated government institutions
• delegitimatization
• authoritarianism

• Since old government institutions are not coping with the challenges of modernity, suffering an ingenuity gap, it's fueling a political crisis enabling the rise of authoritarianism

for: question - adaptation - answer - adaptation, adaptation - ingenuity, endogenous growth, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute

question: adaptation

• why do some societies successfully adapt to environmental stresses while others do not?

answer: adaptation

• Ingenuity
  • Researchers within societies that are able to adapt effectively are able to deliver ingenuity at the right time and place to prevent environmental problems from causing severe hardship.

references

• The ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1995)?
  • http://www.homerdixon.com/1995/09/01/the-ingenuity-gap-can-poor-countries-adappt-to-resource-scarcity/
• Resource Scaricity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1999)?
  • http://www.homerdixon.com/1999/03/01/resource-scarcity-and-innovation-can-poor-countries-attain-endogenous-growth/
• The Ingenuity Gap (2000)
  • http://www.ingenuitygap.com/
• The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon, 2006)
  • https://homerdixon.com/writing/books/the-upside-of-down/