for
- The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
- Camilo Mora et al.
- 6th mass extinction
- biodiversity loss
- question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit?
- to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013
- to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al
paper details
- title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
- author:
- Camilo Mora,
- Abby G. Frazier,
- Ryan J. Longman,
- Rachel S. Dacks,
- Maya M. Walton,
- Eric J. Tong,
- Joseph J. Sanchez,
- Lauren R. Kaiser,
- Yuko O. Stender,
- James M. Anderson,
- Christine M. Ambrosino,
- Iria Fernandez-Silva,
- Louise M. Giuseffi,
- Thomas W. Giambelluca
- date - 9 October, 2013
- publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013)
- https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540
- https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540
to
- https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability
Summary
- This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline
- It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption
- Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when:
- The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is
- continuously outside the bounds of historical variability
- Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway
- The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while
- The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.)
- So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure.
- What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt?
- The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.
question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit?
- Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises:
- How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity?
- There, it is claimed that:
- 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br />
- https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext
- a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required
- https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext
- in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis
- And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with
- aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from
- Business-As-Usual RCP pathway
- by a few decades at most
- And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present
from
- Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0
- https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world
to
- climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013
- https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/
- full research paper - researchgate