alarmism vs denial in Switzerland...or some observations on the Swiss COVID response a monster thread...

this seems to have prompted a mixed response:

3 days ago: the announcement that "normal" ICU beds in Switzerland are now full. Origin of this is:

1 week ago: 60 Swiss economists call for lockdown

A few weeks ago this- second wave arrives:

Quick preamble on "why": I have been monitoring the Swiss response for 2 reasons: 1. The Swiss COVID response has surprised me 2. personal interest (full disclosure: safety concerns about a family member to contextualise potential bias), so:

alarmism vs denial in Switzerland...or some observations on the Swiss COVID response a monster thread...

Ongoing, an incredibly awesome talk on computational reproducibility by @AdinaKrik. Slides: https://zenodo.org/record/4285927#.X7vjPrMo9OR…. If you are looking for an expert speaker on computational reproducibility, or someone to teach a workshop, look no further!

Our #YSR2020 computational reproducibility symposium just started with @lakens @AdinaKrik @brandmaier organized by @MLSicorello @s_nebe and @z_sazae @bioDGPs and DGPA!

LIVE @WHO @DrMikeRyan says "we have all received death threats" and other hate mail because we are scientists, trying to work in a #pandemic in the "international space."Quote Tweet

Media briefing on #COVID19 with @DrTedros

26 states have over 1k people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Hospitalizations in CA, TX, and IL account for almost a quarter of all COVID-19 current hospitalizations.

12 states reported over 5k COVID-19 cases today.

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.5M tests, 164k cases, and 1,869 deaths. A record 79k people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US. Today's death count is the highest since May 7.

More on Canada's data mess with great quotes from @JPSoucy who has been scraping covid data to keep track of issues. For example when BC pulled their case data Monday night to replace it next day with dramatically revised daily case counts for the weekend.

Meanwhile, BC is still refusing to share occupation data of covid cases with the Public Health Agency of Canada, actively blocking the ability to paint a comprehensive national picture.Quote Tweet

Relevant, high quality, and timely data matters. So does having a government that analyzes the data and acts on it.

Planning continues under the assumption that no vaccine will be available https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/904538/S0641_COVID-19_compared_with_NSRA_2019_Pandemic_Influenza_planning_assumptions.pdf… 5/5

Government behavioural scientists raise the risk of "public concern if interventions that are perceived to be effective [in other countries] are not applied" in the UK, and are divided on the likely public reaction to a policy of only partial isolation https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/887574/04-spi-b-insights-on-combined-behavioural-and-social-interventions.pdf…

Modelling assumes that suppression measures can be sustained for a maximum of 3-4 months, so introducing early 'lockdown'-style measures to stop the disease is judged likely to lead only to a more deadly resurgence later on when they are lifted https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891855/S0039_SAGE13_MRC_Imperial_Timing_and_Triggering_of_NPIs.pdf…

5 March 2020 The UK 'optimal policy' is shown in red: avoid strong measures to suppress the virus early on, allowing infections to develop over the summer months while suppressing the peak to 4,500 deaths/day, and reaching herd immunity by September. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891855/S0039_SAGE13_MRC_Imperial_Timing_and_Triggering_of_NPIs.pdf…

5 Mar 2020 Today's SAGE papers reveal the emergence of what would come to be known as the UK's "herd immunity" strategy: allowing healthier people to gradually catch the virus and develop immunity, while 'cocooning' those more likely to die if infected https://gov.uk/government/collections/sage-meetings-march-2020#meeting-13,-5-march-2020…

Also, on pre-print servers, your works looks much better; they have social tools for sharing; and metrics to see how many times your paper has been downloaded. And the newest sites make it super easy to get started.

Cloud drives are great to collaborate, but if you want your research to be widely read before formal publication, pre-print repositories are better alternative. Pre-print entries are persistent, meaning your work will always be available even if you delete that dropbox file.

I'm really surprised to see a lot of academics sharing their working papers/pre-prints from cloud drives (i.e. @Dropbox @googledrive) Don't! Use @socarxiv @SSRN @ZENODO_ORG, @OSFramework, @arxiv (+ other) instead. They offer persisent DOIs and are indexed by Google scholar

"It's still a little bit sci-fi, but you can see how we're beginning to build towards it." "The speed of technology is a thing that gives me hope." @mr_dudders on Artificial Intelligence and the future of automated fact checking. Listen http://pod.fo/e/a8daa

Join Sabin & @UNICEF for the final webinar of our three-part series on Vaccination Misinformation Control & Prevention! This webinar will focus on insights for #ImmunizationProfessionals on inoculation against harmful vaccine #misinformation. Registerhttps://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_QnXkgTxBSyW-k9Ov8mgSQw

Authors: @mathModInf @sangeeta0312 TaraMangal @EttieUnwin NatsukoImai @ginacd1 @DrCWalters @ElitaJaun HelenaBayley @mara_kont AndriaMousa @lilithwhittles @SRileyIDD @neil_ferguson

UPDATE #COVID19 3.8% of children with COVID19 experience severe or critial symptoms No evidence for difference nr infected asymptomatic children compared to general population Children’s susceptibility & onward transmissibility still unclear https://imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-reports/

this is a book that Amazon also sells- seems fascinating enough to me ;-)

You could probably get away with a medical history book titled something like "How Vaccines Saved America / Europe". But, in the end, you would only really be pitching it at the Pro-Science Market.

Are there many pro-vaccine books? It seems such a banal topic to write on ("Yes, vaccines are great. No, they won't hurt you. The end"). Can't see anyone getting a million-dollar advance for that.

It was inevitable, really

.@SciBeh wow--concerning indeed.Quote Tweet

and I don't think 'freedom rights' anywhere guarantee delivery as opposed to a (mere) opportunity to seek out....

interesting idea, but I think not applicable to what was described: certain types of posts are "being demoted" not blocked... - users still have the 'freedom' to seek out that content. They are just not being preferentially *served* that content.

Some might argue the moral dilemma is between choosing what is seen as good for society (limiting spread of disinformation that harms people) and allowing people freedom of choice to say and see what they want. I'm on the side of making good for society decisions.

quite possibly! ;-) ...but they are invested in the idea that correct diagnosis raises the chance of successful intervention..... and, while the leopard might win on this occasion, on average that premise (which seems to me what science is all about) is likely true

"Well it's not a *moral* dilemma!" cry the academics as the leopard eats their faces

because we're all scientists, and precision matters: "Moral dilemmas, at the very least, involve conflicts between moral requirements. Consider the cases given below." https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/moral-dilemmas/… => definition of moral dilemma is a conflict between two moral imperatives

By definition "A moral dilemma is a situation in which a person is torn between right and wrong." In some cases, it can include competing moral virtues (e.g., deontology vs. utilitarianism). But that needn't be the case.

Yeah agree with you on the main point but wouldn't say "moral" is irrelevant here. Presenting the dilemma as such suggests there is no morally-right thing to do, when there is, and thus hands platform a license to maintain the status quo. Prob wasn't the intended point but still.

Seems like you're missing the point of the tweet by focussing on an irrelevant detail. A perverse incentive makes it unlikely for social media companies to act in society's interests, let's focus on that.

Well, it may be a capitalist dilemma but I don't see it as a *moral* dilemma. If my product kills people (e.g. tobacco) it's not a moral "dilemma" whether I deny that to keep pushing it--it's a moral travesty. How is this different?

The dilemma is between prioritizing the self interest of the company and its shareholders vs. society. In many ways, it's a classic social dilemma.

.@jayvanbavel Umm, where is the moral dilemma exactly? @SciBeh @philipplenz6 @AnaSKozyreva @UlliEcker @johnfocook

Here's your guide to #AIMOS2020 Register (for free, if you want): https://aimos.community/2020-membership-and-registration… Find a session you like in our program: https://sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-law-school/news/aimos-conference-schedule-web.pdf… Find its time and the zoom link on our schedule (cross-ref'd by time zone): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10YtGxHU3tciYeyqFeNcj8AWIrHnMirnlu2OuBNniHxs/edit?usp=sharing… Relax (you earned it)!

a rather concise argument...

Percentage of total worldwide flights tracked appearing in each image above: 2018: 46% 2019: 49% 2020: 65%

The skies above North America at Noon ET on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Active flights 2018: 6,815 2019: 7,630 2020: 6,972 https://flightradar24.com/35.17,-90.21/5

Should you get the COVID19 vaccine? Doctor @AnnaBlakney explains why it is so important. #teamhalo

Check out "Campaign for Social Science Annual SAGE Lecture 2020" https://eventbrite.co.uk/e/campaign-for-social-science-annual-sage-lecture-2020-tickets-129009513929?utm-medium=discovery&utm-campaign=social&utm-content=attendeeshare&aff=estw&utm-source=tw&utm-term=listing… @EventbriteUK

Science of Behavioral Change Capstone Conference: Celebrating Accomplishments and Looking to the Future Register now for this Feb. 22-23 NIH virtual event https://commonfund.nih.gov/sobc-capstonemeeting/registration

A summary of the session is now available here.

NEW: The Minstry of Education says "The value of the contract was $942,000 for McKinsey to provide feedback on the childcare and school re-opening plans." The rest -- more than $3 million was to assist the COVID-19 recovery planning. #onpoli

BREAKING: CTVNews has learned McKinsey & Company was paid $1.6million to help create the COVID-19 command tables, and $3.2 million to help with the school re-opening strategy. https://mckinsey.com/about-us/covid-response-center/home… #onpoli

This is very perceptive via @bmj_latest and well worth a read: covid-19 yearbook: world leaders edition

two argument schemes combined here: analogy and reductio ad absurdum

Great presentation by Cooper Smout on @proFOK for trying to overcome the collective action problem of open science #scibeh2020

Fun fact: this EXACT model was reviewed and appraised (first paper above) and then externally validated (second paper), showing it was very poor, months ago.... w/ @laure_wynants @Rishi_K_Gupta

Now it has become prominent for COVID19? Got to be kidding @EricTopol https://bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328… https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.24.20149815v1

next step- combine with COVID mortality and prevalence..

Hey @chrisdc77, is there a way to cite your modified pyramid of evidence?

one thing that seems incredibly hard to distinguish in COVID sceptic Twitter is whether someone is a bad faith actor or whether there are pockets where understanding still just is that limited. So should we drop distinction in trying to deal with people?

"If Whitty and Vallance had taken questions, I hope someone would have asked them what the projected number of cases would be on 13th Oct if you discount the 91% of “cases” that are false positives." Tweet, (now deleted), 21 September 2020

"Some lockdown enthusiasts pick out a handful of examples where lockdowns have coincided with a fall in Covid deaths but that’s not a scientific approach." The Critic, 11 January 2021

"If you compare mortality in December of 2020 with average December mortality over the the last five years, there doesn't as far as I can see appear to be any increase at all" "London Calling" podcast, 4 January 2020

"A winter bed crisis in the NHS is an annual event... According to PHE, there was no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality in England in the final week of 2020" The Critic, 11 January 2021*

But sadly, he hasn't learned anything in 2021...

"Even if we accept the statistical modelling of Dr Neil Ferguson’s team... which I’ll come to in a minute, spending £350 billion to prolong the lives of a few hundred thousand mostly elderly people is an irresponsible use of taxpayers’ money." The Critic, 31 March 2020

"I’m going to go out on a limb and predict there will be no “second spike” – not now, and not in the autumn either. The virus has melted into thin air. It’s time to get back to normal." Telegraph, 25 June

"The country is well on its way to acquiring herd immunity and the much-ballyhooed “peak” that we’re trying to avoid by locking ourselves down won’t materialise." The Critic, 31 March 2020

"Is the case fatality rate really as high as Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College would have us believe? Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University has speculated that it may end up being 0.05 per cent, lower than seasonal flu." Telegraph, 3 April

"The choice is between switching to mitigation or maintaining the lockdown indefinitely... It’s inevitable that we’re going to have to abandon the suppression strategy before we develop a vaccine out of sheer economic necessity" The Critic, 2 April

"What happened to the British people’s bulldog spirit, , our instinctive libertarianism? ... It’s tempting to think the feminisation of British culture has left us bereft of manly virtues. We have become men without chests, to use CS Lewis’s phrase." Telegraph, 18 April

"I was sent a paper by Mikko Paunio, a key scientific adviser to the Finnish Government, estimating that the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 is around 0.13 per cent – roughly the same as seasonal flu." Telegraph, 18 April

And even if you catch the disease, it it may not be much more deadly than a bad bout of seasonal influenza... We should dispense with silly, over-cautious social-distancing rules... Let’s just get back to the way things were." Telegraph, 29 May

"in some parts of the country – such as London – the virus is expected to have completely vanished by the end of next month." Telegraph, 29 May

"The decision to place the entire country in suspended animation on March 23 will end up costing more lives than the pandemic... one of the worst decisions in our history." Telegraph, 12 June

The scientists predict a massive resurgence of Covid-19 infections if we don’t “get on top of things” and that part of the report is unconvincing... the paper seems pessimistic about the level of immunity that the UK population has already acquired." Telegraph, 14 July

I may... convene a public inquiry of my own. The experts I’ll invite to sit on the panel won’t be the usual hacks with an axe to grind... They’ll be [like] Sunetra Gupta, the Oxford epidemiologist who believes we may have achieved herd immunity already" Spectator, 25 July

The check-in process at Heathrow took at least four times longer than usual and having to wear a face nappy for the entire journey was a pain in the bum. But... in Venice things started to look up – I’d finally escaped Gulag Britain." Telegraph, 12 August

"we were told... the number of infected people was on the rise again... the rise was due to a combination of increased testing and false positives." Telegraph, 14 August 2020

"as we sceptics are fond of pointing out, almost no one has the virus any more." Spectator, 15 August

"Should we be worried about the uptick in cases? Almost certainly not. It’s due to recent increases in testing capacity... Given the over-sensitivity of the PCR test, the rise in new cases is telling us just how many people have had Covid-19 in the past" Telegraph, 7 September

As the UK tragically hits a record number of Covid-19 deaths, Covid-sceptic-in-chief @toadmeister appears to have deleted all his tweets from last year. That's not surprising. Here are some of the things he claimed over the last year - a thread.

Two states, similar background, neighbors Only big difference is in mid-November, a policy intervention And effects are sizeable. And visible. Obviously, its just a two state comparison But compelling And should remind us we know how to save lives until vaccines arrive Fin

For much of the pandemic, the two states have looked very similar Partly because both governors did a good job managing things When things got bad this fall, MI responded, OH didn’t If we need more evidence that policy matters, this graph should do it 5/6

So MI: cases are down 15%, hospitalizations up 29% OH: cases are up 79%, hospitalizations up 76% And you know that deaths will follow in the following couple of weeks In fact, let's look at the picture, which tells the story perfectly OH vs MI through December 11

Michigan put in restrictions on 11/15 Ohio did not What happend? Michigan 11/15 versus 12/10 Daily cases: 67 --> 57 new cases per 100K Hospitalizations: 31 --> 40 per 100K Ohio 11/15 versus 12/10 Daily cases 58 -->104 new cases per 100K Hospitalizations: 25 --> 44 per 100K

On 11/15, Michigan had 67 new cases / 100K population and 31 people in the hospital per 100K pop Ohio had, per 100K pop 58 new cases, 25 people in the hospital And as the graph shows, they were both increasing rapidly Here's that graph again through November 15

Similar states Similar policies But then, things changed mid-November So let’s talk data (@COVID19Tracking 7-day moving avgs) 3/9

On 11/15, Michigan announced series of restrictions Ohio didn’t We can compare the two to see if Michigan policies helped Why is Ohio a good comparison? OH a neighbor of similar size, make-up (urban/rural, etc) Here's COVID cases through 11/15 (OH in red, MI in blue)

Michigan vs. Ohio State Football today postponed due to COVID But a comparison of MI vs OH on COVID is useful Why? While vaccines are coming, we have 6-8 hard weeks ahead And the big question is -- can we do anything to save lives? Lets look at MI, OH for insights Thread

new updates to the SciBeh Vaccine wiki!

Another update to wiki underlying our COVID-19 vaccination handbook at https://sks.to/c19vax . Added explanatory videos by the brilliant @Asher__Williams 1/n

One of the most important topics in #COVID epidemiology, by a great speaker. Don't miss it!

this debate feels increasingly like an exchange where one side isn't even listening to the other any more... arguments need to be *cumulative*, collecting pros and cons into one place for summary evaluation. Without such tools, Twitter just helps debates go around in circles

there will be many a wrong analysis as we cycle through the 1 year anniversary and there is nothing to mark this one out as uniquely bad, but what does seem surprising to me in hindsight is the confidence with which people pronounced given that this was a new disease.

“Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb #COVID19. Don't do what we did” write 25 leading Swedish scientists “Sweden’s approach to COVID has led to death, grief & suffering. The only example we're setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease” https://usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/21/coronavirus-swedish-herd-immunity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

Another view on uncertainty associated based on Pfizer's results. Even if you were highly skeptical about MRNA vaccines (many are [were?]) with 50% prior belief that VE ~ 0, based on an 8:86 vax:placebo case split, the posterior probability that VE > 75% is ~ 1.

Yep, I hope there will be a public inquiry at some point.

alongside dubious relationships with parties that in other contexts would require declarations of interest or that have independent hallmarks of being bad faith actors

indeed! I suspect also, though, that for the most egregious cases of harm caused such an inquiry will be able to identify what are clear failings by *scientific standards* - such as cherry-picked data, selective reporting, unwillingness to admit error etc...

good question, though I think anyone who genuinely believes they are acting for the greater good should welcome a public inquiry to make their case.

this question I wonder about a lot myself- how could and should science hold those accountable that have caused harm? do we have suitable ethical rules and guidelines? Or rules for distinguishing legitimate scientific debate from dangerous propaganda?

The effect of social distance measures on deaths and peak demand for hospital services in England, 3 March 2020 https://gov.uk/government/publications/the-effect-of-social-distance-measures-on-deaths-and-peak-demand-for-hospital-services-in-england-3-march-2020… Coronavirus: action plan A guide to what you can expect across the UK, 3 March 2020 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869827/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf

The UK coronavirus plan offers no estimate of how many may die, warning only that "there could well be an increase in deaths". But on the same day as the plan's launch, a SAGE paper reports that even 12 weeks of measures would only reduce the death toll to around 290,000

"There was no need to panic or exaggerate, was the message. Most striking today was the way the experts, fully backed by the PM, played down a lot of the worst-case scenario options… Reason, aided by the right reassuring tone, ruled the day"

3 Mar 2020 Boris Johnson launches the UK Coronavirus Action Plan at a Downing St press conference "We have a fantastic NHS, fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease. Our country remains extremely well prepared" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869827/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf

any similar failures to share as the end of year stock-taking approaches? 2/2

I've been pondering failed predictions today. A spectacular error of mine: in the early media rush to listen to scientists and doctors, I actually thought Western societies might be seeing the end of the "influencer" and a renewed interest in people who *did* stuff 1/2

Alice Stewart on epidemiology (from: https://google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Woman_who_Knew_Too_Much/PdkJo5yerGYC?hl=en&gbpv=0…)

None of the systems talk to each other, so Dr Singer’s admin staff are making appointments with one system, then manually entering them into another, then doing it all again for the second vaccine Lots of potential for mistakes. Lots of wasted time

f you're looking for a reason for the government hasn't been regularly releasing the numbers of people who are vaccinated, this issue is probably it I don’t want to speculate too much but from what I’m told the figures put out today may be *very* provisional

"We’re all getting really frustrated. It’s just not helping to deliver the programme,” he said The practice keeps people outside as much as possible “It's not nice weather and we've got old people standing out in the cold waiting to get their vaccine because of these delays”

As a result, a lot of the data capture is being done by hand, before being entered into the system. Yes, that’s right, in 2020, vaccine data is being coached with pen and paper From a data point of view, this is barbaric. But to Dr Singer, the real cost is the wasted time

The data recording is done by a system called Pinnacle. It arrived last week and there've been problems ever since. There are issues with access. It also keeps crashing One senior health official told me the IT was “failing constantly”

There are numerous software systems involved with vaccination, but two are central. 1. Recording who's had the vaccine (and which vaccine, what batch etc). 2. Inviting and booking patients for appointments - what's known as "call and recall" There are problems with both

This is Dr Elliot Singer, a GP in Waltham Forest. If anyone can be called a community doctor, it’s him. He wasn’t just born locally, he was delivered by the GP who used to have his practice He’s delighted to be delivering the vaccine, but the tech is causing “huge frustration“

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map… (today's map is specimen date ending 16 Jan)

So now the worst hit area of Oxford is 18 times as bad as the best off area #healthInequality #COVID19

So remember: Hospitalizations are not static thing When hospitals get full, by definition you can’t hospitalize all the folks you'd like to hospitalize And many who would benefit from hospitalization suffer Because only the very sickest get a bed Everyone else goes home Fin

So what's the bottom line? We can see in data that we are likely admitting far fewer COVID patients than we would have just 2 months ago Likely due to very full hospitals Because political leaders have politicized mask wearing, social distancing Its a travesty 16/17

This is not Doctors being cruel Its that with fewer and fewer beds, bar for hospitalizing anyone is rising And likely means more people are suffering, getting worse, or even dying at home All because our hospitals are really full 15/17

Everything -- COVID and non-COVID is affected So borderline admission for heart failure? Person now goes home Pt with infected leg where you’d prefer IV antibiotics in hospital? They go home with oral antibiotics This is what is happening in hospitals across America right now

The evidence suggests that many of these pts now being sent home will likely do worse at home Some may be OK -- but others will come back sicker or even die at home And one more thing When hospitals fill up, threshold for admission for everything goes up

Best guess? we're admitting half the COVID pts we would have admitted October 1 Is this a problem? If those people don’t need hospitalization, is this bad? Well, on Oct 1, we would have said that they need hospitalization So “need” is fluid But here's the other key issue

And that’s what appears to be happening Here's the bottom line: 1 in 3 people who would have been admitted on October 1 aren’t being admitted by November 22 That’s a big change! And given big rise in test positivity – its likely much higher 11/15

Of course, critically ill patients always get admitted But over time, marginal admissions start disappearing And as hospitals get fuller, what is defined as “marginal” keeps changing Until you only admit the sickest folks 10/12

So what’s happening? What you’d expect – doctors’ threshold for admission is likely going up In early Oct, with plenty of beds, a COVID patient who is clinically borderline likely gets admitted to ensure they do OK By Nov 15, beds in short supply, that person likely goes home

May be more testing means we're picking up more cases? No % test + is rising from 5.1% (Oct 1) to 12.1% (Nov 15) So number of cases being missed is climbing Proportion of pts being admitted from identified cases should be RISING That 3.5%? Should go up. Instead, its falling

But in November, that number starts falling Initially to 3.2% by Nov 8 By Nov 15, drops to 3.0% By Nov 22, drops to 2.5% And by Nov 29, down to 2.1% So what’s going on? What does this mean? 7/12

I’m ignoring data from last week b/c Thanksgiving messiness though this effect gets much more dramatic But here’s the fact: Over much of September and October, you could look at cases today and predict that 3.5% of that number gets hospitalized 7 days later 6/10

On Nov 1, there are 80K new cases. On Nov 8, you’d expect 2804 new hospitalizations (80K*0.035) What was it actually? 2604. A little less. But fine On Nov 15, there are 146K new cases. On Nov 22, expect 5111 new hospitalizations (146K*0.035) But there are only 3670 5/10

So let's look at data On October 15, there are 53K new cases On Oct 22, you’d expect 1844 hospitalizations (53K*0.035). What was it actually? 1855 So far so good 4/10

LOTS of caveats to this formula Not all states report new hospitalizations (formula takes that into account) Could build a 10 day lag formula (3.7% hospitalized by 10 days) All data I report are 7-day moving avgs from @COVID19Tracking 3/10

So what do I mean "proportion of COVID pts hospitalized falling"? For months, you could reliably predict new hospitalizations How? By taking cases 7 days prior, multiplying by 3.5% That is 3.5% (1 in 29) of those diagnosed today will be hospitalized about 7 days later 2/10

There is something funny happening with COVID hospitalizations Proportion of COVID pts getting hospitalized falling A lot Just recently My theory? As hospitals fill up, bar for admission rising A patient who might have been admitted 4 weeks ago may get sent home now Thread

so there seems ample room to me for claiming that the Spectator headline is *correctly* labelled as 'misinformation' - all thoughts appreciated

and finally one does not even need to take speaker intention to be constitutive of 'misinformation' (which I take to be the Twitter/FB approach, please correct me if wrong..)

which one has every reason to believe will not be the chosen interpretation the idea that one might 'lie' with natural language pragmatics where utterances are semantically accurate is an example of that and there is wider debate on this

the wider point being that it seems uncontroversial to me that one can "misinform" by exaggeration and/or source misattribution and, more controversial, but right that one can intentionally "misinform" by choosing a statement correct on some non-preferred reading

for which a more informative rendition would be something like: "Expert thinks equivocal study findings suggest limited utility for masks" or some such...

'significance' in a looser, non-statistical sense (which lay readers are also likely to impute), any such inferences are interpretive and not properties of the study itself

if that's not what it says. So it seems also that the likely reading of this will be a) (i.e. a telegraphic rendition thereof). and while one might be able to argue about what a lack of statistical significance does and does not show or imply, last but not least about ...

as in a) "study established/indicated face masks don't have significant effects" or b) "study failed to find significant effects of face masks" We know also even when faced with b) many (most?) lay people will take that to imply that they don't have significant effects, even

The critical question is whether the summary "study shows face masks have no significant effect" is 'misinformation'. First off, the title is ambiguous. It could be paraphrased in two different ways: a) is telegraphic version of a longer sentence "study showed *that* face..

Here was the 'offending' Heneghan Tweet/FB post:

interesting opinion in an important wider debate, but I think the Heneghan 'censure' is more complicated than I think the opinion makes out - a thread on interpretation and misinformation

Here's what happened when I posted our latest @spectator article to Facebook - I'm aware this is happening to others - what has happened to academic freedom and freedom of speech? There is nothing in this article that is 'false'

The campaign against @DrZoeHyde that has involved several scientists targeting her with personal attacks, and trying to misrepresent her is deeply disappointing. She has been referred to as 'evil', 'idiotic', 'sadistic', and a'sociopath'. A few thoughts on these attacks.

All-inclusive authorship on large scientific papers can a be dangerous practice Alert: potential unpopular opinion Thread 1/n

Which is what I will do for the next three nights. But tonight. It’s me and Cliff and Oreo ice cream. And how ironic I have on my “home” Hoodie. The South Dakota I love seems far away right now.

I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a fucking horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.

Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And

I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is

I need to make some preliminary remarks on my report today. The EMS - which is where the positive test data comes from - seems to be having quite a problem. Many cases were reported later today. In Vienna there was according to this

1. Hospitalizations have hit a new all-time HIGH. 2. Deaths are increasing rapidly, now at 7.1K/week. 3. #SouthDakota on track to reach levels only achieved by NY in hospitalizations/capita. @GovRicketts @KristiNoem @DougBurgum have a lot to answer for.

The increase in hospitalizations and deaths confirms the main pattern we’ve identified in the data—after cases go up, a rise in these figures follows. We explain the relationship between the three metrics in this post.

Deaths are also rising. Today’s death count is the highest since August 19, pushing the 7-day average up to nearly 1,000.

Today’s number of currently hospitalized people—62k—is also a record. A total of 17 states have reported single-day record hospitalizations.

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.2 million tests and 131k cases, the highest single-day total since the pandemic started. There are 62k people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. The death toll was 1,347.

These are #CoronaRiots at a Dutch hospital. Cannot believe this

If you are interested in QAnon, QAnonCasualties is a must subreddit to read regularly and to get to know what is happening in QWorld from those closest to QAnon adherents.

If you are interested in QAnon, QAnonCasualties is a must subreddit to read regularly and to get to know what is happening in QWorld from those closest to QAnon adherents.

I am quite sure the "herd immunity" discussion barely exists in parts of East Asia (e.g, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand) which have used the strategy @devisridhar has been explaining endlessly and patiently for months now.....

Yet another article packed full of wise words: e.g., "in some ways, the people pushing for “herd immunity” are forcing us into these lockdown-release cycles because you end up in a reactive position by underestimating the spread of the virus and the hospitalisation rate"

Professor Karl Friston's re-run of his dynamic causal model differs from the gloomy predictions. It predicts a peak in deaths in the next 7-10 days, 4 weeks enough time to get back down to 5000 cases/d for test, trace, isolate to work, and R already below one. Hope he is right.

We've had years of this on climate change. "Later, we'll be speaking to someone who has spent their life researching climate science, whose work has to be rigorously assessed. But first, let's hear from a man in a tin-foil hat, who has very real concerns that this is a hoax".

Why is @BBCr4today playing vox pops with random members of the public speculating that the Covid vaccine might be unsafe? It's a *news* programme, not a phone-in. If there's informed, scientific disagreement, then air it. But this is just irresponsible.

“It's working in mainland China with 1.4 billion people. It doesn't depend on being an island.” A pandemic adviser to the New Zealand government says achieving zero cases isn’t about the size of a country, but about “strong leadership”.

The #AcademicTwitter story... And so it came to pass, that in less than one year, more than 100,000 articles had been published about #COVID19 #SARSCoV2... while shepherds watched their flocks and angels from the realms of glory winged their flight o'er the earth.

new papers, without any quality control whatsoever that render manuscript incomplete) - so we need to be much clearer on what 'scooped' means in the new publishing world 5/5

one reason for why that rule would seem adaptive more generally is that I have also experienced what seem like bad faith reviewers who are using the mushrooming preprint volume to indefinitely postpone manuscript acceptance (as in trendy areas there will invariably be 4/5

the fundamental question that needs resolving is whether we treat non-peer reviewed preprints like we now treat published work. Personally, I have been citing non-peer review and hence not properly published work only where it has influenced the work I am reporting 3/5

2) it is not known and not cited- this seems ok from the perspective of the author, but should reviewers/journal be able to force inclusion? and 3) author knows work, but it played no role in own paper and is not cited. - appropriateness depends on answer to 2) ... 2/5

A thread: This is an important issue as preprints become the norm. There seem to me several distinct cases: 1) preprint is known to authors, used but not cited - that is just 'stealing' same as with published work and unproblematic. 1/5

Part II: "what do they know, why do ICU doctors speak about ICU beds, they're not the experts, why don't we rather listen to the economists, I personally don't know anyone who's on ICU right now, ICU treatment is done wrong anyway, and why don't you go back to your home country?"

Swiss ICU doctors: "regular ICU beds full" Twitter: "No they're not, newspaper says no, there must be other beds they didn't count, all patients are false positive PCRs, ICUs are always full, ICUs are made to be full, ICU staff are lobbyists, just send more ICU patients home"

Truly good news out of #Italy. And we can all use it. Cases (23K), positive rate (12.3%), and hospitalizations all DOWN. ICU occupancy with smallest increase in months. Deaths (not surprisingly) the one exception with 3rd highest total.

Military historian Doug Sterner with some interesting perspective on COVID-19.

"Endemic seasonal virus. Causing respiratory disease. In winter." @JuliaHB1

"Winter respiratory viruses have one, or two, winter peaks. The fact every country has falling cases is wonderful news and evidence of endemicity." @ClareCraigPath

"What I can tell you is that we truly did everything we could." @BorisJohnson

"A not-very-severe outbreak of disease which is largely over." @ClarkeMicah

"I wish we'd done what Sweden did." @JuliaHB1

"Endemic seasonal virus. Causing respiratory disease. In winter." @JuliaHB1

"I'm happy with Sweden, thanks." @JuliaHB1

"They're still doing a lot better than us." @JuliaHB1

"Over 42 million [UK citizens] must have had it and are thus ‘effectively vaccinated’ and cannot transmit." Sure. @LanceForman

"Let's relax and accept the risk." @ClarkeMicah

"I’ve asked so many people if they know anyone who has had Covid. Hardly anyone. Two people knew someone (not close) who’d died. Without daily news would we even know there was an epidemic?" @allisonpearson

Feb. "The coronavirus isn't going to kill you." May. "There hasn't been a 'second spike' anywhere." Jul. "Let's relax and accept the risk." Aug. "At what point do we declare the pandemic over?" Dec. "Without daily news would we even know there was an epidemic?" Meanwhile.

"Vitally important that people understand that 'infections' (as BBC call them, actually positives, often without symptoms) are reflection of the number of tests done, not a measure of the level of illness." @ClarkeMicah

"It's December. Respiratory disease hospitalisations rise every winter." @JuliaHB1

"Sweden settled in for the long haul, and now doesn’t need to worry about a second surge." @DanielJHannan

"Despite a supposedly deadly second wave..." @ClarkeMicah

"The entire WORLD is being badly hurt by the China Virus." @realDonaldTrump

"Sadly, we are still not following Sweden. Why, don't you think it would be a good idea?" @JuliaHB1