Argumentation is an integral part of how we negotiate our everyday lives in a complex world. In many contexts it matters that arguments are rational, that means, it is not enough that they are simply (subjectively) convincing. Rational argument involves ‘norms’ or ‘standards’ against which actual arguments can be compared. These standards provide a yardstick for argument quality, and allow us to make statements about when particular arguments are weak or strong. These standards articulate considerations that we should all find ourselves happy to adopt, once we think about them for a bit. Specifically, we should be happy to adopt them if we want to maximise the chance that what we come to believe is actually true. While we might not always care about that when we are trying to convince others, we typically don’t want the wool pulled over our eyes when arguments are addressed at us. This site tries to illustrate these standards for rational argument in action: specifically, we provide critical analyses of written articles, opinion pieces and debates that are in the public domain. For these pieces, we provide a kind of ‘argument checking’ that complements fact-checking provided by websites such as Politifact and FullFact. The academic research that underlies our analyses is conducted in across a number of different disciplines: philosophy, communication studies, psychology and computer science. Some of it is found in textbooks on critical thinking or guides to better argument. But some of it is also quite technical and less accessible to the general public. For this reason, our website will be adding further background materials on key topics. This should both help site readers to understand the critical analyses and to learn more on rational argument in general. The site has grown out of our own research on rational argument. We hope readers will find it useful, and we hope it will contribute to making public debate a little bit better. This site is part of the Rational Argument Project.

In an unscheduled release, Deutsche Post said preliminary figures showed that its quarterly operating profit came in around 890 million euros, well above average analyst forecasts for 811 million, according to Refinitiv data.It said volumes started to recover in the second quarter and had seen a rise in shipments driven by e-commerce, both internationally and in the German parcel business.

Importance  The ability to identify patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the prehospital emergency setting could inform strategies for infection control and use of personal protective equipment. However, little is known about the presentation of patients with COVID-19 requiring emergency care, particularly those who used 911 emergency medical services (EMS).Objective  To describe patient characteristics and prehospital presentation of patients with COVID-19 cared for by EMS.Design, Setting, and Participants  This retrospective cohort study included 124 patients who required 911 EMS care for COVID-19 in King County, Washington, a large metropolitan region covering 2300 square miles with 2.2 million residents in urban, suburban, and rural areas, between February 1, 2020, and March 18, 2020.Exposures  COVID-19 was diagnosed by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 from nasopharyngeal swabs. Test results were available a median (interquartile range) of 5 (3-9) days after the EMS encounter.Main Outcomes and Measures  Prevalence of clinical characteristics, symptoms, examination signs, and EMS impression and care.Results  Of the 775 confirmed COVID-19 cases in King County, EMS responded to 124 (16.0%), with a total of 147 unique 911 encounters. The mean (SD) age was 75.7 (13.2) years, 66 patients (53.2%) were women, 47 patients (37.9%) had 3 or more chronic health conditions, and 57 patients (46.0%) resided in a long-term care facility. Based on EMS evaluation, 43 of 147 encounters (29.3%) had no symptoms of fever, cough, or shortness of breath. Based on individual examination findings, fever, tachypnea, or hypoxia were only present in a limited portion of cases, as follows: 43 of 84 encounters (51.2%), 42 of 131 (32.1%), and 60 of 112 (53.6%), respectively. Advanced care was typically not required, although in 24 encounters (16.3%), patients received care associated with aerosol-generating procedures. As of June 1, 2020, mortality among the study cohort was 52.4% (65 patients).Conclusions and Relevance  The findings of this cohort study suggest that screening based on conventional COVID-19 symptoms or corresponding examination findings of febrile respiratory illness may not possess the necessary sensitivity for early diagnostic suspicion, at least in the prehospital emergency setting. The findings have potential implications for early identification of COVID-19 and effective strategies to mitigate infectious risk during emergency care.

Second tutorial of the Net-COVID online series: Understanding and Exploring Network Epidemiology in the Time of Coronavirus. Lecture by YY Ahn from the Indiana University. See go.umd.edu/net-covid for more information about the online series.

Fourth lecture (seminar) of the Net-COVID online series: Understanding and Exploring Network Epidemiology in the Time of Coronavirus. Seminar by Ginestra Bianconi of Queen Mary University of London. See go.umd.edu/net-covid for more information about the online series.

The summer gives us a chance to eliminate the virus and reopen the economy without pointless debates about 1 or 2 metre distancing measures

ONLINE EVENT – While there has been significant attention given to foreign influence operations by state-actors like Iran, far less has been given to how global events shape—and skew—the reality depicted by the Iranian regime to the Iranian people.

We use a global metapopulation transmission model to study the establishment of sustained and undetected community transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. The model is calibrated on international case importations from mainland China and takes into account travel restrictions to and from international destinations. We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the West and East Coast metropolitan areas that could have been seeded as early as late-December, 2019. For most of the continental states the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.

Nel corso del primo DataBeers Torino interamente online, Michele Tizzoni -co-founder dell'iniziativa e Research Leader presso Fondazione ISI - presenta i risultati dello studio in cui è stato misurato l'impatto sulla la mobilità degli Italiani in seguito all'epidemia di COVID-19 e alle restrizioni imposte dal governo.

In touching every aspect of our lives, the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly disrupted our sense of well-being and produced uncertainty and anxiety. How do we find resilience while remaining productive and caring family members, friends, professionals and citizens in these unprecedented times? In a series of ten short videos (one video will be added per week until mid-June, 2020), UC Berkeley psychologist Dacher Keltner, who has studied stress, relationships and well-being for 25 years and is co-founder of the campus’s Greater Good Science Center, will share ideas and practices for cultivating resilience and connection as we face the challenges of the coming months. Drawing on insights from the center’s Science of Happiness online course, podcast series and magazine, Keltner shares tips on how to manage stress and find meaningful connections while social distancing, completing each video with simple, science-tested practices useful for this moment in time.

Clinicians and GPs will soon be able to better identify patients who are at a higher risk of serious illness from SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a new data-driven risk prediction model, now under development by an Oxford University-led team.

Swedes are losing trust in authorities’ handling of the coronavirus, as the man behind the country’s light-touch approach called lockdowns a form of madness and political parties demanded the Swedish strategy be reviewed before the next election in 2022.

Nearly 1 in 3 black Americans know someone personally who has died of covid-19, far exceeding their white counterparts, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll that underscores the coronavirus pandemic’s profoundly disparate impact.

New research highlights the profound effect of severe social isolation on the brain

Social distancing and isolation have been widely introduced to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. Adverse social, psychological and economic consequences of a complete or near-complete lockdown demand the development of more moderate contact-reduction policies. Adopting a social network approach, we evaluate the effectiveness of three distancing strategies designed to keep the curve flat and aid compliance in a post-lockdown world. These are: limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts akin to forming social bubbles; seeking similarity across contacts; and strengthening communities via triadic strategies. We simulate stochastic infection curves incorporating core elements from infection models, ideal-type social network models and statistical relational event models. We demonstrate that a strategic social network-based reduction of contact strongly enhances the effectiveness of social distancing measures while keeping risks lower. We provide scientific evidence for effective social distancing that can be applied in public health messaging and that can mitigate negative consequences of social isolation.

Leicester has been placed under a localised lockdown following a spike in COVID-19 cases. The English city reported 866 cases in the two-week period up to June 23. While the origins of the outbreak are currently unknown, I was not surprised to see it happen here. Leicester is the 32nd most deprived local authority in England (out of a total of 317). An estimated 41% of children there live in poverty. The local economy is also characterised by high levels of in-work poverty and low wages. The 2008 financial crisis, ten years of austerity, and the roll out of universal credit had already left public and voluntary services in the city stretched to the limit. The city could ill afford another negative shock – and then along came the coronavirus pandemic.

The coronavirus pandemic has torn through the global economy, suppressing consumer demand and industrial production. As countries look to an eventual recovery, but in a very different environment characterized by continuing distancing measures and loss of public confidence, businesses in many sectors, such as hospitality and retail, are asking how they can adapt to survive these new economic conditions. Yet perhaps surprisingly, those feeling threatened include independent primary care practices in the United States. Despite the USA being one of the most expensive healthcare systems in the world, many primary care practices are now facing financial collapse. Some estimates suggest that primary care practices will lose up to $15 billion during 2020 as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.

While baseball, basketball, and other sports struggle to adapt, an international team of skater-experts has figured out a safer way to play.

What the reproduction number can and can’t tell us about managing COVID-19.

New report calls on Australia and US to strengthen ability to counter others’ disinformation – as well as their own

The objective of this Personal View is to compare transmissibility, hospitalisation, and mortality rates for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with those of other epidemic coronaviruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and pandemic influenza viruses. The basic reproductive rate (R0) for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 2·5 (range 1·8–3·6) compared with 2·0–3·0 for SARS-CoV and the 1918 influenza pandemic, 0·9 for MERS-CoV, and 1·5 for the 2009 influenza pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes mild or asymptomatic disease in most cases; however, severe to critical illness occurs in a small proportion of infected individuals, with the highest rate seen in people older than 70 years. The measured case fatality rate varies between countries, probably because of differences in testing strategies. Population-based mortality estimates vary widely across Europe, ranging from zero to high. Numbers from the first affected region in Italy, Lombardy, show an all age mortality rate of 154 per 100 000 population. Differences are most likely due to varying demographic structures, among other factors. However, this new virus has a focal dissemination; therefore, some areas have a higher disease burden and are affected more than others for reasons that are still not understood. Nevertheless, early introduction of strict physical distancing and hygiene measures have proven effective in sharply reducing R0 and associated mortality and could in part explain the geographical differences.

A clinically significant risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission by fomites (inanimate surfaces or objects) has been assumed on the basis of studies that have little resemblance to real-life scenarios.

COVID-19 has rapidly affected mortality worldwide1. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, requiring new approaches for timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England, here we created OpenSAFELY: a secure health analytics platform covering 40% of all patients in England, holding patient data within the existing data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19-related deaths. COVID-19-related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio (HR) 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53–1.65); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared with people with white ethnicity, Black and South Asian people were at higher risk even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48, 1.30–1.69 and 1.44, 1.32–1.58, respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for COVID-19-related death in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. OpenSAFELY is rapidly adding further patients’ records; we will update and extend results regularly.

The number of Republicans who say they’re leaving the house to socialize has a hit a new high since the coronavirus pandemic began, according to new survey data, even as more Democrats are opting to stay home.

Psychiatrists are observing similar emotions in others who have lost loved ones to covid-19 (see “Stories of loss,” below). They warn that the unique challenges of coming to terms with these deaths could lead to a rise in a condition known as prolonged grief disorder.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic presents significant challenges for higher education and clinical training, normally based on face-to-face interaction, and an opportunity to improve international cooperation.We propose three strategies to ensure that, when we emerge from this crisis, global cooperation in higher education and research is the norm: move to online, digital learning; enhanced networks with institutions from the Global South; and a reformed funding and reward structure.Tackling global issues collaboratively, starting with COVID-19, we will be so much better placed to solve the many issues, known and unknown, that our planet will undoubtedly face in decades to come, including the next pandemic.

United Airlines is warning 36,000 employees — nearly half its U.S. staff — they could be furloughed in October, the clearest signal yet of how deeply the virus pandemic is hurting the airline industry.

In Houston, one of the nation's fastest-growing coronavirus hot spots, more residents are dying before they can make it to a hospital. Medical examiner data shows that an increasing number of these deaths are the result of COVID-19.

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after she refused to manipulate coronavirus data at the Florida Health Department. Now she has launched her own COVID-19 data portal for the state.

New York's subway is trying to convince commuters that it is safe to ride. Recently, it has added vending machines with personal protective equipment at 10 of the busiest stations.

In a previous newsletter, we gave a bearish case for the future of remote work. We spoke with the Stanford psychologist Jeremy Bailenson, whose research shows how existing technologies like Zoom are a poor substitute for face-to-face interactions. A computer screen can't match the physical office when it comes to opportunities for social bonding, managerial oversight, mentorship and support, and random collisions between colleagues that lead to new ideas. But there's also the bullish case for remote work. Brynjolfsson, who has spent years studying the intersection of technology and economics, points to its many advantages. Workers don't have to waste time or resources commuting. And they can live where they want. Companies can save money on commercial real estate, which is insanely expensive in places like Manhattan and Silicon Valley (side note: this also shifts the cost of real estate to workers, but that's another discussion). A virtual office offers a virtually unlimited labor pool for companies to recruit from. In econ jargon, there are better "matching" opportunities. "You get to tap into the best people wherever they are," Brynjolfsson says. Moreover, he argues, this shift is pushing companies to focus on performance and output as opposed to just "clocking hours."

SARS-CoV-2 was detected in Barcelona sewage long before the declaration of the first COVID-19 case, indicating that the infection was present in the population before the first imported case was reported. Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater would enable adoption of immediate measures in the event of future COVID-19 waves.

COVID-19 pandemic, as a global threat to humanity, is likely to instigate a variety of collective responses in the society. We examined, for the first time, whether COVID-19 threat perception is related to attitudes towards Syrian immigrants in Turkey, theorizing a dual pathway whereby threat caused by the COVID-19 pandemic would relate to both pro- and anti-immigrant feelings. While drawing upon behavioral immune system theory, we expected that pathogen threat would lead to more exclusionary attitudes; relying on the common ingroup identity model, we predicted that pathogen threat would promote inclusionary attitudes through creating a common ingroup in the face of a global threat. Results from two studies using online search volume data at the province-level (N = 81) and self-report measures at the individual level (N = 294) demonstrated that perceived COVID-19 threat was directly associated with more positive attitudes towards immigrants (Study 1 and 2). Study 2 further revealed indirect positive (through a sense of common identity) and negative (through perceptions of immigrant threat) links between COVID-19 threat perception and attitudes towards immigrants. These results highlight the importance of integrating evolutionary and social identity perspectives when assessing pathogen-related threats. We draw attention to managing the public perceptions of COVID-19 threat which may mitigate the social aftermath of the pandemic.

Working from home has environmental and social benefits. Offices are still needed for innovation, collaboration, learning and networking though. Smaller, local offices could reduce commuting and promote more inclusive workplaces. This productivity opportunity would then provide economic benefits as well.

This may be true, but showing a correlation between the number of excess deaths and the time of lockdown is not enough evidence to argue this point, as the FT did.

Individual decision-making about social distancing, self-quarantine and self-isolation is crucial in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In the rapidly evolving pandemic, little is known about how different government communication strategies may systematically affect people’s attitudes to staying home or going out, nor the extent to which people perceive and process the risk of different scenarios. In this study, we report results from a sample of 581 participants (residing in the United Kingdom), and we examine the degree to which participants’ attitudes regarding the permissibility of leaving one’s home are (1) sensitive to different levels of risk of viral transmission in specific scenarios, (2) sensitive to communication framings that are either imperative or that invite reasoning about scenarios, or (3) creating “loopholes” for themselves when scenarios are framed with reference to the participants themselves rather than in general terms. We find that participants’ attitudes to social distancing are sensitive to the level of risk of transmission, and that when scenarios are framed in imperative terms, rather than when their reasoning is encouraged, participants have more impermissive attitudes to going out in Minimal Risk scenarios, with a trend of decreased permissiveness more generally; for self-loopholes, more research is needed to determine if participants make exceptions for themselves. Thus, subject to the limitations of this study, during phases where it is important to promote self-isolation for all scenarios, including those perceived to be low risk, imperative communication may be best.

The purpose of the study was to better understand the relationships among stress, work-related burnout, and remote working brought on by social distancing efforts and stay at home orders put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors developed a questionnaire incorporating valid and reliable self-report stress and burnout measures (Perceived Stress Scale & Copenhagen Burnout Inventory), demographic, and work-related questions. The questions were used primarily to determine workers’ levels of stress before and during the pandemic, to assess potential burnout, and to establish the extent of their previous experience with remote work/telecommuting. The questionnaire was open from March 23rd to May 19th 2020 and distributed through a survey link on social media and by Qualtrics research services. Results from the analyses suggest that perceived stress did increase during the COVID-19 restrictions, especially for people that had limited experience working from home and were female. Individuals who worked from home before COVID-19 had higher levels of work-related burnout but did not differ based on gender or part-time work status. The results suggest that working from home may create more stress and result in more burnout, which challenges the current moves by some employers to make working from home a permanent arrangement. The authors believe that having research based on valid and reliable instruments will help employers and schools make better decisions about how to support those who can remain at home to avoid the potential for secondary outbreaks.

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, French public opinion has been divided about Pr. Didier Raoult and his hydroxychloroquine-based treatment against COVID-19. In this paper, our aim is to contribute to the understanding of this polarization of public opinion by investigating the relationship between (analytic vs. intuitive) cognitive style and trust in Didier Raoult and his treatment. Through three studies (total N after exclusion = 950), we found that a more intuitive cognitive style predicted higher trust in Didier Raoult and his treatment. Possible mediators included valorization of scientific method over personal experience, belief that truth is political, belief in conspiracy theories and belief in pseudo-medicines. Additionally, we found that higher trust in Didier Raoult and hydroxychloroquine was linked to higher pseudo-medical and conspiratorial beliefs regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, but not to self-reported behavior, such as lower compliance with official regulations.

Many countries imposed stringent lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sweden, however, adopted a ‘soft’ approach of self-imposed social precautions without state regulation. This evoked extensive criticism within and outside the country, especially in view of its high death rates in comparison to its Nordic neighbours. The Swedish government, however, has been steadfast with its strategy. As countries emerge from lockdowns and begin to reopen their societies, there are many lessons to learn from Sweden’s soft COVID-19 strategy.

The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic

Networks provide a mathematically rich framework to represent social contacts sufficient for the transmission of disease. Social networks are often highly clustered and fail to be locally tree-like. In this paper, we study the effects of clustering on the spread of sequential strains of a pathogen using the generating function formulation under a complete cross immunity coupling. We derive conditions for the epidemic threshold of the first strain and the threshold of coexistence of the second strain. We find that clustering has a dual affect on the first strain, reducing the epidemic threshold but also decreasing the final outbreak size at large transmissibilities. Clustering reduces the coexistence threshold of the second strain and its outbreak size. We apply our model to the study of multilayer clustered networks and observe the fracturing of the residual graph experimentally.

How can the birth and evolution of ideas and communities in a network be studied over time? We use a multimodal pipeline, consisting of network mapping, topic modeling, bridging centrality, and divergence to analyze Twitter data surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We use network mapping to detect accounts creating content surrounding COVID-19, then Latent Dirichlet Allocation to extract topics, and bridging centrality to identify topical and non-topical bridges, before examining the distribution of each topic and bridge over time and applying Jensen-Shannon divergence of topic distributions to show communities that are converging in their topical narratives.

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Pubs, restaurants and cafes in England welcomed customers back through their doors on 4 July, sparking warnings of a second wave of covid-19 infections. Yet there have been warnings of another wave since the country began easing restrictions, and one hasn’t materialised. Will this time be different? Scientists on an independent advisory panel on coronavirus called Independent SAGE have repeatedly warned that the relatively swift easing of lockdown restrictions in England risks cases rising again.

Primeiro dia do webinário internacional "Pensando a Pandemia", com tópicos em filosofia da mente e psicologia. 14:00 - Bahar Tuncgenc: What motivates people to do social distancing? A comprehensive analysis on a global sample 15:00 - Short break 15:15 - Ernesto Perini: Quando duas crises se encontram - a pandemia de covid-19 e o negacionismo científico

Stopgap measures are keeping renters in their apartments, even as their bills stack up.

Decisions on fitness for employment that entails a risk of contracting Covid-19 require an assessment of the workers personal vulnerability should infection occur. Using recently published UK data, we have developed a risk model that provides estimates of personal vulnerability to Covid-19 according to sex, age, ethnicity, and various comorbidities. Vulnerability from each risk factor is quantified in terms of its equivalence to added years of age. Addition of the impact from each risk factor to an individuals true age generates their Covid-age, a summary measure representing the age of a healthy UK white male with equivalent vulnerability. We discuss important limitations of the model, including current scientific uncertainties and limitations on generalisability beyond the UK setting and its use beyond informing assessments of individual vulnerability in the workplace. As new evidence becomes available, some of these limitations can be addressed. The model does not remove the need for clinical judgement or for other important considerations when managing occupational risks from Covid-19.

In communicating chronic risks, there is increasing use of a metaphor that can be termed ‘effective-age’: the age of a ‘healthy’ person who has the same risk profile as the individual in question. Popular measures include ‘real-age’, ‘heart-age’, ‘lung-age’ and so on.Here we formally define this concept, and illustrate its use in a variety of areas. We explore conditions under which the years lost or gained that are associated with exposure to risk factors depends neither on current chronological age, nor the period over which the risk is defined. These conditions generally hold for all-cause adult mortality, which enables a simple and vivid translation from hazard-ratios to years lost or gained off chronological age. Finally we consider the attractiveness and impact of this concept.Under reasonable assumptions, the risks associated with specific behaviours can be expressed in terms of years gained or lost off your effective age. The idea of effective age appears a useful and attractive metaphor to vividly communicate risks to individuals.

No one wants to pay $30,000 per semester for the current experience.

UK neurologists publish details of mildly affected or recovering Covid-19 patients with serious or potentially fatal brain conditions

A Registered Reports system is key to preventing questionable research practices. Under this system, manuscripts, including their detailed protocols (i.e., hypothesis, experimental design, sample size, and methods of statistical analysis), are reviewed prior to data collection. If a protocol manuscript is accepted, publication of the full manuscript including the results and discussion is guaranteed in principle regardless of whether the collected data support the registered hypothesis. However, this assurance of publication might be broken under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The present paper reports the first author’s real-life experience related to the collapse of the assurance of publication in the Registered Reports system and discusses the disbenefits of this collapse. Furthermore, we propose the implementation of a journal section specific to protocol manuscripts as a solution to the crisis of the Registered Reports system.

The spreading of the COVID-19 virus has a devastating impact on patients with psychiatric illnesses. Here, we highlight the potential consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for psychiatric patients of old age, based on several patients that we have treated in the past months (2020). We not only elaborate on the challenging conditions of old age psychiatric patients but also provide potential solutions to optimize patient care for this vulnerable group.

Novel coronavirus cases in Florida and Texas continue to soar, including nearly 3,800 and 2,700 deaths, respectively. Each state has reported nearly 205,650 to 206,450 infections to date, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.The combined number of COVID-19-related deaths recorded in both states over the past month is greater than the total hurricane-related deaths reported in the U.S. over the past 20 years.

This is an update regarding the JASP summer workshop “Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing” originally scheduled for August 24-25, 2020. Unfortunately, the ongoing outbreak of COVID19 and the associated international travel restrictions make it impossible to proceed with the workshop as planned.We therefore decided to offer an online version of the workshop on the same dates. The online workshop will mainly take place during business hours in our local time zone (CEST). However, we will attempt to accommodate the needs of international participants as well. A detailed plan of this online workshop will follow later.Due to the lower costs of organizing an online workshop, we decided to decrease the workshop fees by 100€ for all price categories. The updated prices can be found on our workshop website.

ObjectivesTo validate the diagnostic accuracy of a Euroimmun SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA immunoassay for COVID-19.MethodsIn this unmatched (1:2) case-control validation study, we used sera of 181 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and 326 controls collected before SARS-CoV-2 emergence. Diagnostic accuracy of the immunoassay was assessed against a whole spike protein-based recombinant immunofluorescence assay (rIFA) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Discrepant cases between ELISA and rIFA were further tested by pseudo-neutralization assay.ResultsCOVID-19 patients were more likely to be male and older than controls, and 50.3% were hospitalized. ROC curve analyses indicated that IgG and IgA had high diagnostic accuracies with AUCs of 0.990 (95% Confidence Interval [95%CI]: 0.983-0.996) and 0.978 (95%CI: 0.967-0.989), respectively. IgG assays outperformed IgA assays (p=0.01). Taking an assessed 15% inter-assay imprecision into account, an optimized IgG ratio cut-off > 2.5 displayed a 100% specificity (95%CI: 99-100) and a 100% positive predictive value (95%CI: 96-100). A 0.8 cut-off displayed a 94% sensitivity (95%CI: 88-97) and a 97% negative predictive value (95%CI: 95-99). Substituting the upper threshold for the manufacturer’s, improved assay performance, leaving 8.9% of IgG ratios indeterminate between 0.8-2.5.ConclusionsThe Euroimmun assay displays a nearly optimal diagnostic accuracy using IgG against SARS-CoV-2 in patient samples, with no obvious gains from IgA serology. The optimized cut-offs are fit for rule-in and rule-out purposes, allowing determination of whether individuals in our study population have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or not. IgG serology should however not be considered as a surrogate of protection at this stage.

With no clear direction from the federal government on how to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s been hard to decide what’s safe and unsafe as states begin to open up. There's no right answer; you just need to know the risks and how much risk you're willing to take. That's why Professor Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Arizona, Dr. James P. Phillips, MD, the Chief of Disaster Medicine at GWU Emergency Medicine, and I developed a COVID-19 Risk Index to help you do this, based on four key factors: 1) Enclosed space 2) Duration of interaction 3) Crowds 4) Forceful exhalation   

The Nature Podcast brings you the best stories from the world of science each week. We cover everything from astronomy to zoology, highlighting the most exciting research from each issue of Nature journal. We meet the scientists behind the results and providing in-depth analysis from Nature's journalists and editors.

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is of a scale not seen since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Although the predominant clinical presentation is with respiratory disease, neurological manifestations are being recognised increasingly. On the basis of knowledge of other coronaviruses, especially those that caused the severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome epidemics, cases of CNS and peripheral nervous system disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 might be expected to be rare.Recent developmentsA growing number of case reports and series describe a wide array of neurological manifestations in 901 patients, but many have insufficient detail, reflecting the challenge of studying such patients. Encephalopathy has been reported for 93 patients in total, including 16 (7%) of 214 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, and 40 (69%) of 58 patients in intensive care with COVID-19 in France. Encephalitis has been described in eight patients to date, and Guillain-Barré syndrome in 19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in the CSF of some patients. Anosmia and ageusia are common, and can occur in the absence of other clinical features. Unexpectedly, acute cerebrovascular disease is also emerging as an important complication, with cohort studies reporting stroke in 2–6% of patients hospitalised with COVID-19. So far, 96 patients with stroke have been described, who frequently had vascular events in the context of a pro-inflammatory hypercoagulable state with elevated C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and ferritin.Where next?Careful clinical, diagnostic, and epidemiological studies are needed to help define the manifestations and burden of neurological disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. Precise case definitions must be used to distinguish non-specific complications of severe disease (eg, hypoxic encephalopathy and critical care neuropathy) from those caused directly or indirectly by the virus, including infectious, para-infectious, and post-infectious encephalitis, hypercoagulable states leading to stroke, and acute neuropathies such as Guillain-Barré syndrome. Recognition of neurological disease associated with SARS-CoV-2 in patients whose respiratory infection is mild or asymptomatic might prove challenging, especially if the primary COVID-19 illness occurred weeks earlier. The proportion of infections leading to neurological disease will probably remain small. However, these patients might be left with severe neurological sequelae. With so many people infected, the overall number of neurological patients, and their associated health burden and social and economic costs might be large. Health-care planners and policy makers must prepare for this eventuality, while the many ongoing studies investigating neurological associations increase our knowledge base.

Our finding that among patients with a positive retest 52% had IgG anti-viral antibodies and 30% had IgM antibodies suggests partial immune system recognition of SARS-CoV-2. Because 35% of patients with a positive retest had one or more COVID-19-related symptoms, the usefulness of viral antibodies in COVID-19 clearance remains in question, and the potential for continued virus transmission after hospital discharge warrants additional investigation. To prevent a second wave of COVID-19 infections, we recommend a minimum period of 14-day clinical observation in a Fangcang-like medical setting after recovery from COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a unique period of stress and uncertainty that will have significant implications for adolescent mental health. Nevertheless, stress about COVID-19 may be more consequential for some adolescents’ mental health than for others. We examined whether heart rate variability (HRV) indicated differential susceptibility to mental health difficulties associated with COVID-19 stress. Approximately four years prior to the pandemic, we assessed resting HRV and HRV reactivity to a well-validated stress paradigm in 87 adolescents. During the pandemic, these adolescents (ages 13-19) reported on their health-related stress and concerns about COVID-19 and their recent emotional problems. The association between COVID-19 stress and emotional problems was significantly stronger for adolescents who previously exhibited higher resting HRV or higher HRV reactivity. For adolescents who exhibited lower resting HRV or lower HRV reactivity, COVID-19 stress was not associated with emotional problems. Thus, parasympathetic functioning may reflect differential susceptibility to the effects of COVID-19 stress on mental health during the pandemic.

In a gigantic feat of scientific ambition, researchers have designed a staggering 1,200 clinical trials aimed at testing treatment and prevention strategies against Covid-19 since the start of January. But a new STAT analysis shows the effort has been marked by disorder and disorganization, with huge financial resources wasted.

A World Health Organization–led global trial of treatments for COVID-19 was slow to enroll coronavirus-infected people, like this one in a Spanish intensive care unit, whereas a large trial in the United Kingdom quickly produced results for three treatments.

The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic

The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created significant challenges for the global higher education community. Through a desktop analysis leveraging university and government sources where possible, we provide a timely map of the intra-period higher education responses to COVID-19 across 20 countries. We found that the responses by higher education providers have been diverse from having no response through to social isolation strategies on campus and rapid curriculum redevelopment for fully online offerings. We provide in our discussion a typology of the types of responses currently undertaken and assess the agility of higher education in preparing for the pandemic. We believe there are significant opportunities to learn from the pedagogical developments of other universities, in order to strengthen our collective response to COVID-19 now and into the future.

Critics attack ‘confusing’ tweet about guidance on meeting people from other households

The ability to measure argument quality is of central importance not just in our everyday lives, but to scientific endeavors ranging from psychology and philosophy, to computer science and artificial intelligence.Classical logic provides fundamental constraints on argument quality, but most everyday informal argument is already in line with these constraints. This leaves the majority of quality concerns unaddressed.A Bayesian, probabilistic framework significantly expands quality standards for argument evaluation. It not only provides a treatment of the traditional catalogue of logical fallacies, it offers normative guidance that is quantitative, computationally explicit, and can be used for education.Consideration of how both logic and probability work to provide measures of argument quality suggests that ‘consistency’ and ‘relevance’ are two sides of the same coin.The idea of resolving dispute through the exchange of arguments and reasons has been central to society for millennia. We exchange arguments as a way of getting at the truth in contexts as diverse as science, the court room, and our everyday lives. In democracies, political decisions should be negotiated through argument, not deception, or even worse, brute force. If argument is to lead to the truth or to good decisions, then some arguments must be better than others and ‘argument strength’ must have some meaningful connection with truth. Can argument strength be measured in a way that tracks an objective relationship with truth and not just mere persuasiveness? This article describes recent developments in providing such measures.

This is part two of a series on the future of applied behavioural science. You can read part one here.Revisiting the Core ChallengeSolutions to challenges solved in isolation inevitably stumble as they enter the messy, complex reality that they need to exist within

Preregistrations -- records made a priori about study designs and analysis plans and placed in open repositories -- are thought to strengthen the credibility and transparency of research. Different authors have put forth arguments in favor of introducing this practice in qualitative research and made suggestions for what to include in a qualitative preregistration form. The goal of this study was to attain consensus among qualitative researchers on which items to include in a qualitative study preregistration form. We defined consensus as 68% agreement and used an online Delphi study design consisting of two rounds with feedback reports in between. In total, 45 researchers participated (response rate: 15%). In round 1, panelists considered 14 proposed items relevant to include in the preregistration form, but 2 items had a 66% relevance score with mixed argument and were put forth again. We combined items where possible, leading to 11 revised items. In round 2, panelists attained consensus on including the two remaining items. Panelists also reached consensus on suggested terminology and elaborations, with the exception of two terms for which they provided clear arguments. The result is a consensus-based form for the preregistration of qualitative studies that consists of 13 items. The form will be made available as a registration option on Open Science Framework. We believe it is important to assure that the strength of qualitative research, which is its flexibility to adapt, adjust and respond, is not lost in preregistration. The preregistration should provide a systematic starting point.

Today's society faces widening disagreement and conflicts among constituents with incompatible views. Escalated views and opinions are seen not only in radical ideology or extremism but also in many other scenes of our everyday life. Here we show that widening disagreement among groups may be linked to the advancement of information communication technology by analyzing a mathematical model of population dynamics in a continuous opinion space. We adopted the interaction kernel approach to model enhancement of people's information-gathering ability and introduced a generalized nonlocal gradient as individuals' perception kernel. We found that the characteristic distance between population peaks becomes greater as the wider range of opinions becomes available to individuals or the more attention is attracted to opinions distant from theirs. These findings may provide a possible explanation for why disagreement is growing in today's increasingly interconnected society, without attributing its cause only to specific individuals or events.

A paper authored jointly by the van der Schaar Lab, the University of Cambridge’s Department of Medicine, and a group of Brazilian researchers has been published in Lancet Global Health (editor-in-chief: Zoë Mullan). The paper, which was first published on May 27, examines ethnicity as a COVID-19 risk factor in Brazil. One of its key findings is that patients who self-identify as belonging to the country’s pardo and preto ethnicities exhibit significantly higher in-hospital mortality risk than those who self-identify as branco (“white”). A Lancet Global Health comment calls the work “a pioneering study,” noting that it “confirms in Brazil findings observed in other countries hit hard by COVID-19: that mortality rates from the pandemic differ by geographical region and ethnicity, with disproportionate impact for Black populations and other ethnic minorities.”

BackgroundSpain is one of the European countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Serological surveys are a valuable tool to assess the extent of the epidemic, given the existence of asymptomatic cases and little access to diagnostic tests. This nationwide population-based study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spain at national and regional level.Methods35 883 households were selected from municipal rolls using two-stage random sampling stratified by province and municipality size, with all residents invited to participate. From April 27 to May 11, 2020, 61 075 participants (75·1% of all contacted individuals within selected households) answered a questionnaire on history of symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and risk factors, received a point-of-care antibody test, and, if agreed, donated a blood sample for additional testing with a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. Prevalences of IgG antibodies were adjusted using sampling weights and post-stratification to allow for differences in non-response rates based on age group, sex, and census-tract income. Using results for both tests, we calculated a seroprevalence range maximising either specificity (positive for both tests) or sensitivity (positive for either test).FindingsSeroprevalence was 5·0% (95% CI 4·7–5·4) by the point-of-care test and 4·6% (4·3–5·0) by immunoassay, with a specificity–sensitivity range of 3·7% (3·3–4·0; both tests positive) to 6·2% (5·8–6·6; either test positive), with no differences by sex and lower seroprevalence in children younger than 10 years (<3·1% by the point-of-care test). There was substantial geographical variability, with higher prevalence around Madrid (>10%) and lower in coastal areas (<3%). Seroprevalence among 195 participants with positive PCR more than 14 days before the study visit ranged from 87·6% (81·1–92·1; both tests positive) to 91·8% (86·3–95·3; either test positive). In 7273 individuals with anosmia or at least three symptoms, seroprevalence ranged from 15·3% (13·8–16·8) to 19·3% (17·7–21·0). Around a third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic, ranging from 21·9% (19·1–24·9) to 35·8% (33·1–38·5). Only 19·5% (16·3–23·2) of symptomatic participants who were seropositive by both the point-of-care test and immunoassay reported a previous PCR test.InterpretationThe majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave.

Novelty indicators are increasingly important for science policy. This paper challenges the indicators of novelty as an atypical combination of knowledge (Uzzi et al., 2013) and as the first appearance of a knowledge combination (Wang et al., 2017). We exploit a sample of 230,854 articles (1985 - 2005), published on 8 journals of the American Physical Society (APS) and 2.4 million citations to test the indicators using (i) a Configuration Null Model, (ii) an external validation set of articles related to Nobel Prize winning researches and APS Milestones, (iii) a set of established interdisciplinarity indicators, and (iv) the relationship with the articles’ impact. We find that novelty as the first appearance of a knowledge combination captures the key structural properties of the citation network and finds it difficult to tell novel and non-novel articles apart, while novelty as an atypical combination of knowledge overlaps with interdisciplinarity. We suggest that the policy evidence derived from these measures should be reassessed.

Medical experts say bars are places with a high risk of easily spreading COVID-19.Among other factors, this is primarily due to the fact that they’re spots where large numbers of people gather indoors with little ventilation over long periods of time.When people are drinking in a bar, they can often become too relaxed, leading to safety rules and protocols falling by the wayside.Experts also point out that activities like going to church meet a lot of the same risk level criteria as going to a bar.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty and disruptions in daily life. It has mandated social distancing and online education. Teens are spending a significant amount of time online and less time on extracurricular activities including team sports, choir/orchestra, and school socials. The cancellation of SAT, the switch to online AP exams, and the Credit/No Credit policy for 2nd-semester all contribute to the uncertainty in teens regarding their future. Our project aims to create a survey that seeks opinions from teens about how they are managing with online socialization, the effectiveness of the online school, and stress levels. Using convenience sampling, adolescents (n = 168) were invited to participate in an anonymous online survey. Participants were asked about the effectiveness of online socializing, online education, hobbies, and extracurriculars to determine stress levels. We looked at models with two dependent stress variables: “low energy, insomnia and headache” and “forgetfulness and disorganization”. We used descriptive, regression, and correlation analysis to assess what the predictors of anxiety and stress are. Results show that stress levels are highly correlated with online exposure, online schooling, credit/no credit, and home environment. The research focuses on the areas where we can better support teens during lockdown situations by building safer environments for online socialization, and online education.

Background: Prevalence and mortality rates during COVID-19 pandemic have varied widely across nations. This phenomenon may be partly due to regional variations in health-related behaviours, some of which may be influenced by health anxiety. A functional polymorphism of the catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene, designated rs4680 or Val158Met, has been associated with anxiety-related behaviours and the so-called “worrier” phenotype. Methods: In this exploratory study, an analysis of the correlation between the frequencies of the Met allele of the COMT gene across 28 countries, obtained from the public domain Allele Frequency Database (ALFRED), and the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality rates in these countries, obtained from the Johns Hopkins Medical University web-based dashboard, was carried out while controlling for population size and median age in each country. Results: Allele frequencies varied widely across populations. Met allele frequency was positively correlated with COVID-19 prevalence (ρ = 0.527, p = 0.004) and mortality rate (ρ = 0.542) across nations. However, this association was no longer significant after controlling for confounders. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that there may be a relationship between the COMT rs4680 functional polymorphism and the impact of COVID-19 across nations, which could plausibly be mediated by maladaptive anxiety-related behaviours.

Background: Although social-emotional difficulties are believed play a key role in anorexia nervosa (AN), there is uncertainty regarding what these difficulties might look like. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to ask about critical events in the lives of people with experience of AN. Method: Thirty-four participants aged 16-48 with current or past AN completed an online survey describing critical positive and difficult events. Results: When discussing positive critical events, many participants talked about Moments of celebration, which involved increased external focus, but the majority talked about Unexpected positive outcomes, which revealed some negative biases. Difficult events were broadly divided into eating disorder (ED) related and Non-ED life events, the former of which involved discussion of how the illness caused conflict and distress, difficulties with ED-services, and the challenges surrounding having to face the illness. Interestingly, relational conflict which solidified some participants negative expectations of other was identified in both ED-related and Non-ED related difficult events. Discussion: The findings suggest that AN is characterised by negative emotionality and information processing biases. However, reduced self-focused attention and increased “big-picture” thinking, and shifting negative expectation may be helpful in AN and could be useful targets for further research.

Existing research shows that high scholastic boredom is correlated with a range of undesirable behaviors and personality traits and that the main antecedents of boredom are being over- or under-challenged. No study to date, though, seems to have systematically compared students who are highly bored and low-achieving (thus, likely over-challenged) with students who are highly bored and high-achieving (thus, likely under-challenged). Hence, merely knowing that students are highly bored might be insufficient for drawing conclusions about students’ behavior and personality, without taking their achievement level into account. We, therefore, investigated if low- versus high-achieving students who experience strong mathematics boredom show different behaviors and personality traits. The sample consisted of 1,404 German secondary school students (fifth to 10th grade, mean age 12.83 years, 52% female). We used self-report instruments to assess boredom in mathematics, behavior (social and emotional problems, positive/negative affect, emotion regulation), and personality traits (neuroticism and conscientiousness). In comparing highly bored students (more than one SD above M, n = 258) who were low versus high achievers (as indicated by the math grade, n = 125 / n = 119), results showed that there were no mean level differences across those groups for the behavior and personality trait constructs, with only three exceptions: conduct problems and expressive suppression (higher for low achievers) and positive affect (higher for high achievers). In conclusion, our results suggest that high boredom can occur in both low and high achieving students and that bored low- and high-achievers show largely similar behaviors and personality profiles.

The aim of many experiments is to estimate the effect of different interventions on subjects’ decision making. However, obtaining large samples and internal validity is challenging. This paper presents an alternative device at almost no cost that can easily provide a very large number of participants (700 in 5 hours). We asked 14 students to invite their WhatsApp contacts to participate in an online experiment. The students created a total of 80 diffusion groups with 25 contacts each. Using the diffusion groups as clusters, we ran a cluster randomization procedure in order to assign subjects to a framing experiment (treatment + control). We obtained the same level of attrition, duplicates and uninvited subjects across the treatment and control groups. Moreover, the experiment yielded consistent results in line with the framing literature.

I think it is fair to say that the broad focus of health psychology in the UK is on non-communicable disease and lifestyle-related health behaviours. I would like to suggest that perhaps the discipline could devote a little more time to infectious diseases, and not just because we find ourselves in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. In this reflective piece, I outline some of the assumptions that I held, that I sought to challenge in Stage 1 students, and that I suspect are relatively implicit across health psychology as a discipline.

The present study describes the adaption and scale validation of a brief measure of contagion-related fear and threat in Australian, Indian, and Nepali university students in Australia at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Adapted from Ho, Kwong-Lo, Mak, and Wong’s (2005) SARS fear scale, the Contagion Fear and Threat Scale (CFTS) was developed rapidly to capture COVID-19 pandemic-related fear. The 10-item scale was administered to 164 Australian, 111 Indian, and 147 Nepali university students studying in Australia in May-June 2020. Factor analysis revealed two 5-item factors in the Australian student sample: Fear of Infection and Existential Threat. These factors were largely reflected in the Indian student sample but substantially different in the Nepali student sample. The convergent and discriminant validity of the full CFTS, Fear, and Threat scales are indicated via correlations with established measures of depression, anxiety, stress, subjective wellbeing, and locus of control. Psychometric variance of the CFTS between the three samples are considered in terms of demographic, sociocultural, and linguistic differences.

The pandemic is far from over, but it’s already obvious some countries have done better than others. Germany is one, with fewer infections and lower mortality from covid-19 than many of its European neighbours. Well timed lockdown measures and an extensive, community based system of testing and contact tracing have paid off, says Ralph Reintjes.1 There’s still time to get this right in the UK, argue Peter Roderick and colleagues.2 They emphasise the need to “think local” and reintegrate testing and contact tracing into established regional systems. Meanwhile, the current centralised approach and reliance on commercially run tests mean that results are not reliably communicated to patients’ GPs or those doing local contact tracing.

A cornerstone of containing the COVID-19 pandemic is widespread testing to identify cases and prevent new outbreaks emerging. This strategy is known as “test, trace and isolate”. The standard test so far has been the swab test, in which a swab goes up your nose and to the back of your throat. But an alternative method of specimen collection, using saliva, is being evaluated in Victoria and other parts of the world. It may have some benefits, even though it’s not as accurate.

Covid-related facts and definitions are confusing, and as lockdown is eased, clarity is more important than ever

Though hotter, humid weather can dampen transmission, it is not enough to significantly curtail the pandemic

Architects and urban planners from Gensler, Harvard, and Bloomberg Associates explain the changes coming to our shared spaces.

Randomized controlled trials remain the gold standard, but natural experiments can help doctors who need answers now.

If your lab is still shuttered and work is a struggle, technology researcher Sun Sun Lim offers advice on how to switch off.

As coronavirus cases soar in the US, Brazil and other countries in the Americas, some countries have found strategies to contain the virus and limit deaths. More than 5 million confirmed cases of covid-19 and nearly 250,000 related deaths have been reported in the Americas as of 29 June, around half of the world total. The coronavirus is spreading exponentially in many countries, warned Carissa Etienne, the director of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) on 9 June. But in a few places, the picture is very different. Cuba, an island of 11.3 million people is an unlikely exemplar of how to manage a pandemic, according to Michael Bustamante at Florida International University. Its infamously long queues for state-provided goods make social distancing and self-isolation difficult, he says, and the country’s healthcare system, “suffers from scarcities and material shortages that are characteristic of the Cuban economy as a whole”.

The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic

America’s priciest apartment-rental market suddenly has more bargains.Rents for a San Francisco one-bedroom apartment have dropped about 12% from this time last year, a record monthly decline for the city, according to a report from listing site Zumper. Silicon Valley hubs such as Mountain View and Palo Alto also saw rents plunge -- a sign residents of the tech-heavy region are taking advantage of remote work arrangements to flee to cheaper areas.

Risk often gets a bad press. From the seemingly unnecessary actions of extreme sportspeople to the excessive risk appetites of serial entrepreneurs, the term 'risky' is often seen as synonymous with 'reckless', 'foolhardy' or even downright dangerous.But could any of us live in a world without risk, and would it be desirable to do so?Through a series of nine wonderfully rich pen portraits, Polly Morland takes us on a journey through the world of risk, looking not at the extremes or exceptions, but at the routine risks we accept and embrace as part of our everyday lives, often unconsciously.Meet the families who have lived happily on the slopes of Mount Vesuvius for generations; the Paris Opera ballet dancer facing up to the physical, psychological and reputational risks her profession demands; the New York City forensic engineer for whom being first on the scene is just part of the day job. And marvel at the parents and playworkers who every day balance the risks and rewards of how much autonomy and independence to afford growing children.The stories in Risk Wise address fundamental questions about risk and our perceptions about risk-taking. It argues that being risk wise - the ability to understand and accept risk as a force for good - is an essential part of the human experience and a route to living a full and rewarding life.

THE coronavirus is still circulating yet many countries are taking steps to relax restrictions. If you have been asked to return to work or send your children back to school, how can you minimise the risk of infection to yourself and your family? Although there are still many unknowns about the virus, a growing amount of data on how it transmits and survives on surfaces can guide our decisions.

That means that, on their best behavior with full measures in place, it took New York state roughly 19 days to cut the case load in half. But unchecked, it took less than two days for it to double.

The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.

A SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is needed to control the global COVID-19 public health crisis. Atomic-level structures directed the application of prefusion-stabilizing mutations that improved expression and immunogenicity of betacoronavirus spike proteins. Using this established immunogen design, the release of SARS-CoV-2 sequences triggered immediate rapid manufacturing of an mRNA vaccine expressing the prefusion-stabilized SARS-CoV-2 spike trimer (mRNA-1273). Here, we show that mRNA-1273 induces both potent neutralizing antibody and CD8 T cell responses and protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection in lungs and noses of mice without evidence of immunopathology. mRNA-1273 is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial with a trajectory towards Phase 3 efficacy evaluation.

An outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, which then rapidly spread to more than 80 countries. However, detailed information on the characteristics of COVID-19 in children is still scarce. Five patients with non-respiratory symptoms as the first manifestation were hospitalized from the emergency department, and were later confirmed to have COVID-19, between 23 January and 20 February 2020, at the Wuhan Children's Hospital. SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection was positive for all the patients. Four of the patients were male and one was female, and their ages ranged from 2-months to 5.6 years. All lived in Wuhan. One patient had a clear history of exposure to SARS-CoV-2, one had a suspected history of exposure, while the others had no exposure history. For three of the five patients, the primary onset disease required an emergency operation or treatment, and included intussusception, acute suppurative appendicitis perforation with local peritonitis, and traumatic subdural hemorrhage with convulsion, while for the other two it was acute gastroenteritis (including one patient with hydronephrosis and a stone in his left kidney). During the course of the disease, four of the five patients had a fever, whereas one case had no fever or cough. Two patients had leukopenia, and one also had lymphopenia. In the two cases of severe COVID-19, the levels of CRP, PCT, serum ferritin, IL-6, and IL-10 were significantly increased, whereas the numbers of CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ T lymphocytes, and CD16 + CD56 natural killer cells were decreased. We also found impaired liver, kidney, and myocardial functions; the presence of hypoproteinemia, hyponatremia, and hypocalcemia; and, in one case, abnormal coagulation function. Except for one patient who had a rotavirus infection, all patients tested negative for common pathogens, including the influenza virus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, enterovirus, mycoplasma, Chlamydia, and Legionella. Chest CT images of all the patients showed patches or ground-glass opacities in the lung periphery or near the pleura, even large consolidations. This case series is the first report to describe the clinical features of COVID-19 with non-respiratory symptoms as the first manifestation in children.

SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolates encoding a D614G mutation in the viral spike (S) protein predominate over time in locales where it is found, implying that this change enhances viral transmission. We therefore compared the functional properties of the S proteins with aspartic acid (SD614) and glycine (SG614) at residue 614. We observed that retroviruses pseudotyped with SG614 infected ACE2-expressing cells markedly more efficiently than those with SD614. This greater infectivity was correlated with less S1 shedding and greater incorporation of the S protein into the pseudovirion. Similar results were obtained using the virus-like particles produced with SARS-CoV-2 M, N, E, and S proteins. However, SG614 did not bind ACE2 more efficiently than SD614, and the pseudoviruses containing these S proteins were neutralized with comparable efficiencies by convalescent plasma. These results show SG614 is more stable than SD614, consistent with epidemiological data suggesting that viruses with SG614 transmit more efficiently.

The global pandemic of COVID-19 cases caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2 is ongoing, with no approved antiviral intervention. We describe here the effects of treatment with interferon (IFN)-α2b in a cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China. In this uncontrolled, exploratory study, 77 adults hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 were treated with either nebulized IFN-α2b (5 mU b.i.d.), arbidol (200 mg t.i.d.) or a combination of IFN-α2b plus arbidol. Serial SARS-CoV-2 testing along with hematological measurements, including cell counts, blood biochemistry and serum cytokine levels, and temperature and blood oxygen saturation levels, were recorded for each patient during their hospital stay. Treatment with IFN-α2b with or without arbidol significantly reduced the duration of detectable virus in the upper respiratory tract and in parallel reduced duration of elevated blood levels for the inflammatory markers IL-6 and CRP. These findings suggest that IFN-α2b should be further investigated as a therapy in COVID-19 cases.

Background The corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe challenge to public health, especially to those patients with underlying diseases. In this meta-analysis, we studied the prevalence of cancer among patients with COVID-19 infection and their risks of severe events. Methods We searched the Pubmed, Embase and MedRxiv databases for studies between December 2019 and May 3, 2020 using the following key words and terms: sars-cov-2, covid-19, 2019-ncov, 2019 novel coronavirus, corona virus disease-2019, clinical, clinical characteristics, clinical course, epidemiologic features, epidemiology, and epidemiological characteristics. We extracted data following PICO (patient, intervention, comparison and outcome) chart. Statistical analyses were performed with R Studio (version 3.5.1) on the group-level data. We assessed the studies risk of bias in accordance to the adjusted Joanna Briggs Institute. We estimated the prevalence or risks for severe events including admission into intensive care unit or death using meta-analysis with random effects. Findings Out of the 2,551 studies identified, 32 studies comprising 21,248 participants have confirmed COVID-19. The total prevalence of cancer in COVID-19 patients was 3.97% (95% CI, 3.08% to 5.12%), higher than that of the total cancer rate (0.29%) in China. Stratification analysis showed that the overall cancer prevalence of COVID-19 patients in China was 2.59% (95% CI, 1.72% to 3.90%), and the prevalence reached 3.79% in Wuhan (95% CI, 2.51% to 5.70%) and 2.31% (95% CI, 1.16% to 4.57%) in other areas outside Wuhan in China. The incidence of ICU admission in cancer patients with COVID-19 was 26.80% (95% CI, 21.65% to 32.67%) and the mortality was 24.32% (95% CI, 13.95% to 38.91%), much higher than the overall rates of COVID-19 patients in China. The fatality in COVID patients with cancer was lower than those with cardiovascular disease (OR 0.49; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.71; p=0.39), but comparable with other comorbidities such as diabetes (OR 1.32; 95% CI, 0.42 to 4.11; p=0.19), hypertension (OR 1.27; 95% CI, 0.35 to 4.62; p=0.13), and respiratory diseases (OR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.47 to 1.33; p=0.45). Interpretation This comprehensive meta-analysis on the largest number of patients to date provides solid evidence that COVID-19 infection significantly and negatively affected the disease course and prognosis of cancer patients. Awareness of this could help guide clinicians and health policy makers in combating cancer in the context of COVID-19 pandemic

Flushing the toilet with the lid up creates a cloud of spray that can be breathed in and may spread infection, such as coronavirus, say researchers.

Currently, a novel coronavirus named “SARS-CoV-2” is spreading rapidly across the world, causing a public health crisis, economic losses, and panic. Fecal–oral transmission is a common transmission route for many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Blocking the path of fecal–oral transmission, which occurs commonly in toilet usage, is of fundamental importance in suppressing the spread of viruses. However, to date, efforts at improving sanitary safety in toilet use have been insufficient. It is clear from daily experience that flushing a toilet generates strong turbulence within the bowl. Will this flushing-induced turbulent flow expel aerosol particles containing viruses out of the bowl? This paper adopts computational fluid dynamics to explore and visualize the characteristics of fluid flow during toilet flushing and the influence of flushing on the spread of virus aerosol particles. The volume-of-fluid (VOF) model is used to simulate two common flushing processes (single-inlet flushing and annular flushing), and the VOF–discrete phase model (DPM) method is used to model the trajectories of aerosol particles during flushing. The simulation results are alarming in that massive upward transport of virus particles is observed, with 40%–60% of particles reaching above the toilet seat, leading to large-scale virus spread. Suggestions concerning safer toilet use and recommendations for a better toilet design are also provided

A new study found evidence of a correlation between severe cases of COVID-19 and brain complications, but researchers aren't sure whether those complications are directly caused by the disease.

BackgroundConcerns regarding potential neurological complications of COVID-19 are being increasingly reported, primarily in small series. Larger studies have been limited by both geography and specialty. Comprehensive characterisation of clinical syndromes is crucial to allow rational selection and evaluation of potential therapies. The aim of this study was to investigate the breadth of complications of COVID-19 across the UK that affected the brain.MethodsDuring the exponential phase of the pandemic, we developed an online network of secure rapid-response case report notification portals across the spectrum of major UK neuroscience bodies, comprising the Association of British Neurologists (ABN), the British Association of Stroke Physicians (BASP), and the Royal College of Psychiatrists (RCPsych), and representing neurology, stroke, psychiatry, and intensive care. Broad clinical syndromes associated with COVID-19 were classified as a cerebrovascular event (defined as an acute ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or thrombotic vascular event involving the brain parenchyma or subarachnoid space), altered mental status (defined as an acute alteration in personality, behaviour, cognition, or consciousness), peripheral neurology (defined as involving nerve roots, peripheral nerves, neuromuscular junction, or muscle), or other (with free text boxes for those not meeting these syndromic presentations). Physicians were encouraged to report cases prospectively and we permitted recent cases to be notified retrospectively when assigned a confirmed date of admission or initial clinical assessment, allowing identification of cases that occurred before notification portals were available. Data collected were compared with the geographical, demographic, and temporal presentation of overall cases of COVID-19 as reported by UK Government public health bodies.FindingsThe ABN portal was launched on April 2, 2020, the BASP portal on April 3, 2020, and the RCPsych portal on April 21, 2020. Data lock for this report was on April 26, 2020. During this period, the platforms received notification of 153 unique cases that met the clinical case definitions by clinicians in the UK, with an exponential growth in reported cases that was similar to overall COVID-19 data from UK Government public health bodies. Median patient age was 71 years (range 23–94; IQR 58–79). Complete clinical datasets were available for 125 (82%) of 153 patients. 77 (62%) of 125 patients presented with a cerebrovascular event, of whom 57 (74%) had an ischaemic stroke, nine (12%) an intracerebral haemorrhage, and one (1%) CNS vasculitis. 39 (31%) of 125 patients presented with altered mental status, comprising nine (23%) patients with unspecified encephalopathy and seven (18%) patients with encephalitis. The remaining 23 (59%) patients with altered mental status fulfilled the clinical case definitions for psychiatric diagnoses as classified by the notifying psychiatrist or neuropsychiatrist, and 21 (92%) of these were new diagnoses. Ten (43%) of 23 patients with neuropsychiatric disorders had new-onset psychosis, six (26%) had a neurocognitive (dementia-like) syndrome, and four (17%) had an affective disorder. 18 (49%) of 37 patients with altered mental status were younger than 60 years and 19 (51%) were older than 60 years, whereas 13 (18%) of 74 patients with cerebrovascular events were younger than 60 years versus 61 (82%) patients older than 60 years.InterpretationTo our knowledge, this is the first nationwide, cross-specialty surveillance study of acute neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19. Altered mental status was the second most common presentation, comprising encephalopathy or encephalitis and primary psychiatric diagnoses, often occurring in younger patients. This study provides valuable and timely data that are urgently needed by clinicians, researchers, and funders to inform immediate steps in COVID-19 neuroscience research and health policy.

The question comes as states are allowing indoor businesses to reopen, as well as allowing increasingly large gatherings of people.

A handful of mostly small studies have described the existence of cases where patients had symptoms or were shedding virus for longer than 20 days, though they appear to be a fairly small percentage.A recent preprint, not yet peer-reviewed study of patients in Atlanta, Georgia, noted that reported symptoms “remained common” after three weeks. The study “highlights the persistence of symptoms that may interfere with usual activity, such as shortness of breath with exertion,” the authors wrote.In many of these patients, symptoms “appear to wax and wane,” Jenne said.“So they’ll have sort of attacks or flares and then it’ll go away. And throughout this time, people have been shown to test positive for the virus. So it seems as though that they don’t actually clear all the virus.”

RCSI is set to begin clinical trials for a promising drug therapy that could benefit those with severe Covid-19 infections.

Researchers at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Italian National Institute of Health) have shown that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had already been circulating in Italy many weeks before the first autochthonous (native) case was documented on February 21st this year. The team conducted a retrospective search for genomic traces of the virus in sewage samples taken from wastewater treatment plants (WTPs) in northern Italy before the first autochthonous case had been recorded. Eight samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with the earliest case dating all the way back to December 18th, 2019.

The present research investigated a backfiring effect of social interaction on well-being and general confidence in Western populations during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Across two studies, we observed that stronger self-other connectedness and frequent social communication with others during the first few weeks into the quarantine period led to worsened well-being and decreased general confidence. In study 1 (n = 331), we showed that people who reported higher social connectedness and more frequent social interaction experienced declined well-being. In study 2 (n = 327), we replicated the backfiring effect and showed that those who engaged in frequent social interaction, especially in COVID-19 related conversations, reported decreased general confidence, which mediated the accelerating effect of social interaction on panic buying. Overall, our findings indicated that frequent social interaction under a highly novel and uncertain crisis can induce negative consequences on mental health and behavior.

Resuming classroom instruction is crucial. Infection control inside and outside classrooms can let it happen.

Spain, the Netherlands and South Africa are among the countries where secondary schools have resumedSwiss and Dutch authorities both say there is only a very small risk of younger pupils spreading the diseaseThe issue is a political battleground in Britain where Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer squabbled at PMQs today

Education Ministry says 301 students, teachers have tested positive for COVID-19 during fresh outbreak, leading to shuttering of 87 educational institutions across country

Det är av vikt att identifiera grupper i befolkningen som har en ökad risk att drabbas av allvarlig sjuklighet och dödlighet i covid-19 i syfte att bedriva riktade insatser och förebygga fortsatt smittspridning. För att få kunskap om insjuknande i covid-19 skiljer sig mellan olika yrkesgrupper har persondata från anmälningarmed bekräftad covid-19 samkörts med register över yrkesklassificering vid SCB. De som har diagnostiserats under perioden 13 mars – 27 maj har inkluderats i analyserna. Den högsta relativa förekomsten av covid-19 återfanns bland yrkesgruppen taxiförare m.fl., 4.8 gånger högre i jämförelse med övriga yrkesgrupper, följt av yrkesgrupperna pizzabagare m.fl. och buss- och spårvagnsförare. Personal inomskola har inte någon högre relativ förekomst i jämförelse med övriga yrken.

Transmission risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in schools is unknown. Our investigations, especially in preschools, could not detect SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic children. The data suggest that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools and could help inform exit strategies for lifting of lockdowns.

As many countries begin to lift some of the restrictions to contain COVID-19 spread, lack of evidence of transmission in the school setting remains. We examined Irish notifications of SARS-CoV2 in the school setting before school closures on 12 March 2020 and identified no paediatric transmission. This adds to current evidence that children do not appear to be drivers of transmission, and we argue that reopening schools should be considered safe accompanied by certain measures.

Background: The extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among pupils in primary schools and their families is unknown. Methods: Between 28-30 April 2020, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among pupils, their parents and relatives, and staff of primary schools exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in February and March 2020 in a city north of Paris, France. Participants completed a questionnaire that covered sociodemographic information and history of recent symptoms. A blood sample was tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using a flow-cytometry-based assay. Results: The infection attack rate (IAR) was 45/510 (8.8%), 3/42 (7.1%), 1/28 (3.6%), 76/641 (11.9%) and 14/119 (11.8%) among primary school pupils, teachers, non-teaching staff, parents, and relatives, respectively (P = 0.29). Prior to school closure on February 14, three SARS-CoV-2 infected pupils attended three separate schools with no secondary cases in the following 14 days among pupils, teachers and non-teaching staff of the same schools. Familial clustering of cases was documented by the high proportion of antibodies among parents and relatives of infected pupils (36/59 = 61.0% and 4/9 = 44.4%, respectively). In children, disease manifestations were mild, and 24/58 (41.4%) of infected children were asymptomatic. Interpretation: In young children, SARS-CoV-2 infection was largely mild or asymptomatic and there was no evidence of onwards transmission from children in the school setting.

Background: The Oise department in France has been heavily affected by COVID-19 in early 2020. Methods: Between 30 March and 4 April 2020, we conducted a retrospective closed cohort study among pupils, their parents and siblings, as well as teachers and non-teaching staff of a high-school located in Oise. Participants completed a questionnaire that covered history of fever and/or respiratory symptoms since 13 January 2020 and had blood tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The infection attack rate (IAR) was defined as the proportion of participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection based on antibody detection. Blood samples from two blood donor centres collected between 23 and 27 March 2020 in the Oise department were also tested for presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Findings: Of the 661 participants (median age: 37 years), 171 participants had anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The overall IAR was 25.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 22.6-29.4), and the infection fatality rate was 0% (one-sided 97.5% CI = 0-2.1). Nine of the ten participants hospitalised since mid-January were in the infected group, giving a hospitalisation rate of 5.3% (95% CI = 2.4-9.8). Anosmia and ageusia had high positive predictive values for SARS-CoV-2 infection (84.7% and 88.1%, respectively). Smokers had a lower IAR compared to non-smokers (7.2% versus 28.0%, P <0.001). The proportion of infected individuals who had no symptoms during the study period was 17.0% (95% CI = 11.2-23.4). The proportion of donors with anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in two nearby blood banks of the Oise department was 3.0% (95% CI = 1.1-6.4). Interpretation: The relatively low IAR observed in an area where SARS-CoV-2 actively circulated weeks before confinement measures indicates that establishing herd immunity will take time, and that lifting these measures in France will be long and complex.

In NSW, from March to mid-April 2020, 18 individuals (9 students and 9 staff) from 15 schools were confirmed as COVID-19 cases; all of these individuals had an opportunity to transmit the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) to others in their schools. 735 students and 128 staff were close contacts of these initial 18 cases. One child from a primary school and one child from a high school may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at their schools. No teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19 from any of the initial school cases.

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 clades that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated over 7,000 SARS-CoV-2 datasets to unveil both intrahost and interhost diversity. Our intrahost and interhost diversity analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights iSNV and SNP similarity, albeit with high variability in C>T changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of small indels fuel the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Missing data is much studied in epidemiology and statistics. Theoretical development and application of methods for handling missing data have mostly been conducted in the context of prospective research data, and with a goal of description or causal explanation. However, it is now common to build predictive models using routinely collected data, where missing patterns may convey important information, and one might take a pragmatic approach to optimising prediction. Therefore, different methods to handle missing data may be preferred. Furthermore, an underappreciated issue in prediction modelling is that the missing data method used in model development may not match the method used when a model is deployed. This may lead to over-optimistic assessments of model performance.

JASP 0.13 has been released and is now available on our download page.

Dental practices are taking measures to keep patients safe. Some people are wary, however

In Episode 2, John Lettieri sits down with Dr. Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the online talent platform Upwork. They discuss how the COVID-19 crisis could permanently influence the future of remote work, and how being an economist and small business owner in Lancaster, PA, influences Adam’s perspective on the challenges facing the U.S. in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. 

We need to reopen our schools—not in spite of the pandemic, because of the pandemic.