Reviewer #1 (Public review):
Summary:
Ferreiro et al. present a method to simulate protein sequence evolution under a birth-death model where sequence evolution is constrained by structural constraints on protein stability. The authors then use this model to explore the predictability of sequence evolution in several viral structural proteins. In principle, this work is of great interest to molecular evolution and phylodynamics, which have struggled to couple non-neutral models of sequence evolution to phylodynamic models like birth-death. Unfortunately, though, the model shows little improvement over neutral models in predicting protein evolution, and this ultimately appears to be due to fundamental conceptual problems with how fitness is modeled and linked to the phylodynamic birth-death model.
Major concerns:
(1) Fitness model: All lineages have the same growth rate r = b-d because the authors assume b+d=1. But under a birth-death model, the growth r is equivalent to fitness, so this is essentially assuming all lineages have the same absolute fitness since increases in reproductive fitness (b) will simply trade off with decreases in survival (d). Thus, even if the SCS model constrains sequence evolution, the birth-death model does not really allow for non-neutral evolution such that mutations can feed back and alter the structure of the phylogeny.
(2) Predictive performance: Similar performance in predicting amino acid frequencies is observed under both the SCS model and the neutral model. I suspect that this rather disappointing result owes to the fact that the absolute fitness of different viral variants could not actually change during the simulations (see comment #1).
(3) Model assessment: It would be interesting to know how much the predictions were informed by the structurally constrained sequence evolution model versus the birth-death model. To explore this, the authors could consider three different models: 1) neutral, 2) SCS, and 3) SCS + BD. Simulations under the SCS model could be performed by simulating molecular evolution along just one hypothetical lineage. Seeing if the SCS + BD model improves over the SCS model alone would be another way of testing whether mutations could actually impact the evolutionary dynamics of lineages in the phylogeny.
(4) Background fitness effects: The model ignores background genetic variation in fitness. I think this is particularly important as the fitness effects of mutations in any one protein may be overshadowed by the fitness effects of mutations elsewhere in the genome. The model also ignores background changes in fitness due to the environment, but I acknowledge that might be beyond the scope of the current work.
(5) In contrast to the model explored here, recent work on multi-type birth-death processes has considered models where lineages have type-specific birth and/or death rates and therefore also type-specific growth rates and fitness (Stadler and Bonhoeffer, 2013; Kunhert et al., 2017; Barido-Sottani, 2023). Rasmussen & Stadler (eLife, 2019) even consider a multi-type birth-death model where the fitness effects of multiple mutations in a protein or viral genome collectively determine the overall fitness of a lineage. The key difference with this work presented here is that these models allow lineages to have different growth rates and fitness, so these models truly allow for non-neutral evolutionary dynamics. It would appear the authors might need to adopt a similar approach to successfully predict protein evolution.