for - podcast - great simplification - Nate Hagen - guest - Daniel Schmachtenberger - topic progress

for - progress trap - AI - threat of superintendence - interview - Leopold Aschenbrenner - former Open AI employee - from -. YouTube - review of Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay on Situational Awareness - https://hyp.is/ofu1EDC3Ee-YHqOyRrKvKg/docdrop.org/video/om5KAKSSpNg/

for - key insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - dictator controlling superintelligence

meet insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - locked in dictatorship controlling superintelligence - millions of AI controlled robotic law and enforcement agents could police their populace - Mass surveillance would be hypercharged - Dictator loyal AI agents could individually assess every single citizen for descent with near perfect lie detection sensor - rooting out any disloyalty e - Essentially - the robotic military and police force could be wholly controlled by a single political leader and - programmed to be perfectly obedient and there's going to be no risks of coups or rebellions and - his strategy is going to be perfect because he has super intelligence behind them - what does a look like when we have super intelligence in control by a dictator ? - there's simply no version of that where you escape literally - past dictatorships were not permanent but - superintelligence could eliminate any historical threat to a dictator's Rule and - lock in their power - If you believe in freedom and democracy this is an issue because - someone in power, - even if they're good - they could still stay in power - but you still need the freedom and democracy to be able to choose - This is why the Free World must Prevail so - there is so much at stake here that - This is why everyone is not taking this into account

for - progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity

progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity - Rationale: we will have to equip many systems with AI - including military systems - Already connected to the internet - AI will be embedded in every critical piece of infrastructure in the future - What happens if something goes wrong? - Now there is an alignment failure everywhere - We will potentially have superintelligence within 3 years - Alignment failures will become catastrophic with them

for - progress trap - AI - example - give prompt for AI to earn money

progress trap - AI - example - instruct AI to earn money - Getting a base model to make money. By default it may well learn - to lie - to commit fraud - to deceive - to hack - to seek power - because in the real world - people actually use this to make money - even maybe they'll learn to - behave nicely when humans are looking and then - pursue more nefarious strategies when we aren't watching

for - progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario

progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario - Whoever is the first to control superintelligence will possibly have enough power to - seize control from pre superintelligence forces - even without the robots small civilization of superintelligence would be able to - hack any undefended military election television system and cunningly persuade generals electoral and economically out compete nation states - design new synthetic bioweapons and then - pay a human in Bitcoin to synthetically synthesize it

for - progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction

progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction - The podcaster's excitement seems to overshadow any concern of the tragic unintended consequences of weapons even more powerful than nuclear warheads. - With human base emotions still stuck in the past and our species continued reliance on violence to solve problems, more powerful weapons is not the solution, - indeed, they only make the problem worse - Here is where Ronald Wright's quote is so apt: - We humans are running modern software on 50,000 year old hardware systems - Our cultural evolution, of which AI is a part of, is happening so quickly, that - it is racing ahead of our biological evolution - We aren't able to adapt fast enough for the rapid cultural changes that AI is going to create, and it may very well destroy us

for - progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries

progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries - The podcaster does not consider the ramifications of the potential disastrous impact of such economic growth if not managed properly

for - progress trap - AI and human enslavement?

progress trap - human enslavement? - Isn't what the speaker is talking about here is that - AI will be the masters and - humans will become slaves?

for - progress trap - superintelligence threat

progress trap - superintelligence threat - super intelligence is going to be far beyond our cognitive capabilities across many domains. For example, - it's going to be able to find exploits in human code too subtle for humans to notice - it's going to be able to generate code too complicated for any human to understand - even if the model spent decades trying to explain it - How do we entrust ourselves to a superintelligence that is so far beyond us? If it thinks we are expendable, it could easily find our weaknesses and bring about extinction

for - progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project!

progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project! - Civlization's journey has to create more and more powerful tools for human beings to use - but this tool is different because it can act autonomously - It can solve problems that will dwarf our individual or even group ability to solve - Philosophically, the problem / solution paradigm becomes a central question because, - As presented in Deep Humanity praxis, - humans have never stopped producing progress traps as shadow sides of technology because - the reductionist problem solving approach always reaches conclusions based on finite amount of knowledge of the relationships of any one particular area of focus - in contrast to the infinite, fractal relationships found at every scale of nature - Supercomputing can never bridge the gap between finite and infinite - A superintelligent artifact with that autonomy of pattern recognition may recognize a pattern in which humans are not efficient and in fact, greater efficiency gains can be had by eliminating us

for - progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher

progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher - This is a serious concern that must be debated - An AI researcher that does research on itself has no moral compass and can encode undecipherable code into future generations of AI that provides no back door to AI if something goes wrong. - For instance, if AI reached the conclusion that humans need to be eliminated in order to save the biosphere, - it can disseminate its strategies covertly under secret communications with unbreakable code

for - AI - progress trap - nice simple explanation of how progress traps propagate

for - progress trap - Generative AI - copyright infringement vs Unfair business practice argument

for - progress trap - AI music - oversaturated market

for - progress trap - AI music - dilution of general royalty pool - due to large volume

For - progress trap - AI - Generative AI - IP - Yale Law Journal

for - progress trap - AI music - critique - Folia Sound Studio - to - P2P Foundation - Michel Bauwens - Commons Transition Plan - Netarchical Capitalism - Predatory Capitalism

to - P2P Foundation - Michel Bauwens - Commons Transition Plan - Netarchical Capitalism - Predatory Capitalism https://hyp.is/o-Hp-DCAEe-8IYef613YKg/wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Commons_Transition_Plan

for - wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization

wicked problems - progress trap - bad news - desensitization - many people become desensitized to bad news

for - progress trap - parenting - traumatizing our children - Nora Bateson - quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - traumatizing our children

quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - traumatizing our children (see below) - Let's face it, - If you create a traumatized child - you then have to have the capacity - for dealing with the traumatized child - So it's not just out of benevolence to him but also that - it's a lot easier to be in relationship with someone for the rest of your life that - you haven't damaged

for - quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - book - Combining

quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - book - Combining - (see below)

• In the singularity of its mission to hastily fix one malady at a time
  • the cure may be more harmful than the wound
• Most identified problems as they have emerged
  • are really the consequence or symptoms of other conditions
• The solution to the consequence is likely to perpetuate the actual problem

for - question - How to respond when asked what's the point or what's in it for me? - adjacency - what's the point? - what's in it for me? - human attention - progress traps

question - How to respond when asked what's the point or what's in it for me? - When these questions pop up, - it can be a good opportunity to engage the other in deeper dialogue to reveal deeper complexity

adjacency - between - questions - what's in it for me? - what's the point? - human attention - progress trap - complexity - emptiness - adjacency relationship - These questions come up a lot - and they indicate a normative human tendency: - When we focus attention on what we consider salient in our dynamic, constructed salience landscape - at the same time it defocuses our attention from the rest of the field the salient feature occurs within - In this sense, overemphasize on these questions could reveal a dependency on oversimplification - of the complexity inherent all every life situation - Remember that emptiness, with its pillars of - intertwingledness and - change - pervades everything, everywhere and everytime - and such continuous oversimplification is tantamount to - ignoring the empty nature of reality and - leads to progress traps

for - adjacency - open source - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - objective - Nora Bateson comment on more information - diversity - Indyweb/Indranet - progress trap mitigation

adjacency - between - Nora Bateson comment - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping<br /> - open source - progress trap mitigation - Indyweb/Indranet

• adjacency relationship
  • When Nora talks about the
    • oversimplified,
    • reductionist
  • problem-solving approach that most of modernity employs to tackle wicked problems,
  • it boils down to oversimplification.
  • There are usually far more causes and conditions to a problem than are known to construct the solution
  • In Deep Humanity praxis, this is how we get into progress traps, the shadow side of progress
    • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap
  • The Stop Reset Go complexity mapping system is designed to reveal greater information by
    • creating a space for diverse perspectives to systematically engage in addressing the same wicked problem
  • This system must be open source in order to create the space for maximum diversity
  • The Stop Reset Go process is specifically designed as a workspace for diversity for the purpose of
    • mitigating progress traps and
    • helping find more effective ways to address wicked problems
  • This is done by using Trailmark Markin notation within the Indyweb/Indranet people-centered, interpersonal software ecosystem

for - quote, key insight - progress trap - Nora Bateson

quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - Nora hits the head of the nail with this observation - There are always multiple causes to one result - and by addressing only one cause, we cannot solve the problem, but in fact - allow it to continue and often make it worse - This is essentially another way of stating the teachings of millenia of Eastern philosophy, - that the universe is - infinitely interconnected - and its inherent nature of continuous transformation - Therefore, any state, which might be recognized as a problem state - is the result of many different causes and conditions coalescing

for - progress trap - Nora Bateson

for - quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson

quote - progress trap - Nora Bateson - (see below) - it's really easy to get distracted by the alarms that are ringing - and like you said, there are many that pulls us into reaction mode - that has been long steeped in industrial responsiveness - which is to the first order - that is, if something is happening we want to stop that thing from happening - whatever it is, whether it's - a refugee crisis or - a nuclear war threat or a this or a that - and that first order response does not take into account - the next and the next and the next order of consequences - so it's a kind of thinking that is very much appropriate for - engineering, - for building machines - but it's not appropriate for complex living systems

adjacency - between - Nora Bateson comment on first order industrial responsiveness - progress trap - Stop Reset Go complexity mapping - Deep Humanity - progress trap - emptiness/shunyata - adjacency relationship - What Nora is saying is articulated within the Deep Humanity praxis using the language of progress traps - Dan O'Leary - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=dan+o%27leary - Ronald Wright - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=ronald+wright - which are the unintended consequences of progress - Deep Humanity praxis relates progress traps to the intertwingled Eastern philosophical ideas of - emptiness (shunyata) - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=emptiness - dependent arising and - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=dependent+arising - interdependent origination - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=interdependent+origination - In the context of the Stop Reset Go complexity mapping process, - to be integrated into the Indyweb / Indranet web 3 software ecosystem, - is designed to map multiple perspectives of how to solve a problem - so that we can see the many different solutions and avoid simply adopting a first order response solution - in so doing, it integrates complexity into our problem solving process and helps to mitigate - future progress traps in our solutions - The Indyweb / Indranet is a technology ecosystem designed to reflect the two pillars of emptiness: - (evolutionary) change and - interdependent origination / intertwingularity, - reflecting a universe that is fractally connected in all - dimensions and - scales - Stop Reset Go will be integrated into the Indyweb/Indranet as a specific Markin notation.

for - progress - progress trap

for - progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol

progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol Abstract - Low-calorie sweeteners are widely used sugar substitutes in processed foods with presumed health benefits. - Many low-calorie sweeteners are - sugar alcohols that also - are produced endogenously, - albeit at levels - over 1000-fold lower than observed following - consumption as a sugar substitute.

conclusion - Xylitol is associated with incident MACE risk. - Moreover, xylitol both - enhanced platelet reactivity and - thrombosis potential in vivo. - Further studies examining the cardiovascular safety of xylitol are warranted.

for - progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol

progress trap - food - artificial sweetener - xylitol - erythritol - Low-calorie sweeteners are widely used sugar substitutes in processed foods with presumed health benefits. - Many low-calorie sweeteners are - sugar alcohols that also - are produced endogenously, - albeit at levels - over 1000-fold lower than observed following - consumption as a sugar substitute.

progress trap - sugar substitutes - xylitol - erythlitol

for - key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - progress trap- US foreign policy that shaped modernity

key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - This was the US's rationale to justify the geopolitical mess it created this century: - If you allow democracy in the age of Communism - people might vote for communism, then - kill all the rich people, then - take their stuff, then - redistribute it - You can get a majority support for that in an impoverished country and that was perceived as a threat - So the United States was suppressing Democratic movements around the world - because if an authoritarian if a communist can win an election fairly one time, - that's the end of free and fair elections - So for decades, the US foreign policy agenda was to install dictators to suppress the threat that democracy could produce communism. - But after "communism was defeated" - all these installed dictators around the world that are the direct result of the pathological US foreign policy posed a new, unexpected quagmire - The decades of US foreign policy had created an enormous progress trap that we are all living through now - The US now had to normalize relations with the new world of dictators it had helped created out of its own fears<br /> - A new US foreign policy rule emerged to deal with this fiasco - Stay in your own country - If you want to kill, imprison, brutalize or subjegate your own people, it is fine with the US government as long as it is done within your own state borders - As long as a nation state abuses their own people, the US will continue to: - buy your oil - trade with you - show up at the UN - even have an occasional State event for you - However, Russia broke that rule

for - progress traps - transcending capitalism

progress trap - transcending capitalism - As Stop Reset Go and Deep Humanity has consistently advocated: - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap - there is an urgent need to establish a science of progress traps in order to develop a way to integrate systematically into all human activities. - It is a new field of research for risk analysis and praxis that is based on explicitly recognizing the difference between nature and human nature, between the fundamental nature of reality (emptiness / shunyata - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=emptiness and the symbolosphere we inhabit as humans which is inherently limited by our current reductionist way of knowing reality - Applying systems thinking and complexity is dependent on the explicit recognition of the gap between the inherent limitations of the evolutionary process of human learning which results from - human bias and which always produces - finite number of relationships which we use to make decisions upon and enact in the world

progress trap - illegal drug manufacture - nitazene - fentanyl - pharmacological research becomes a source for new illicit drug production

for - progress trap - genetic engineering - Denis Noble

for - quote - progress trap - speed of cultural evolution - Ray Noble

for - adjacency - progress trap - Crispr - gene therapy - Denis Noble - human genome project

adjacency - between - human genome project - gene therapy - Crispr - progress trap - adjacency relationship - The idea that we can find specific causal relationships between genes and disease and use gene therapy to cure disease, - an envisioned goal of the human genome project - can be very dangerous because - usually one gene collaborates with many other genes to bring about an effect - If we don't know all the relationships, we can bring about a progress trap

for - progress trap - TFA - from Montreal protocol

for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap - Ralph Thrum article

to - Ralph Thurn LinkedIn article - https://hyp.is/b-LpIA7-Ee-1nyMavdKbbw/www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7192642433833201664/

for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap

for - progress trap

for - progress trap - post comment - LinkedIn - Ralph Thurn article - progress trap - adjacency - progress trap - maladaptive - attention - focus of attention - cultural evolution - duality - dualism - dualistic

adjacency - between - progress - progress trap - maladaptive - cultural evolution - attention - focus of attention - Exploring this statement further, it isn't just that it is our dualistic thinking applied here is a problem - but that it is the very nature of human analytic reasoning coupled with our innate ability to focus our attention which requires a deep unpacking - For to focus on an object of attention - is something we can only accomplish by defocusing on everything else - Indeed, it is the very act of attention on the one, that is inextricably accompanied by the act of inattention of the many - Our body, and that of many other organisms is evolutionarily designed - to focus our attention in our field of view on emergent phenomena that is salient to our survival - The nature of reductionist-type research - which is to say, most research - is that we continue applying this evolved adaptive behavior, even though cultural evolution (ie. progress) has accelerated exponentially to such an extent - that this same biologically evolved behavior has become maladaptive in the context of modernity

for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap - Ralph Thurn article

from - post comment - LinkedIn - Ralph Thurn comment - https://hyp.is/BeAvgg37Ee-btqfJNb2SpA/www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737/?commentUrn=urn:li:comment:(activity:7193987030228340737,7194001397091057666)&dashCommentUrn=urn:li:fsd_comment:(7194001397091057666,urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737)&dashReplyUrn=urn:li:fsd_comment:(7194231407479537664,urn:li:activity:7193987030228340737)&replyUrn=urn:li:comment:(activity:7193987030228340737,7194231407479537664)

for - post comment - LinkedIn - progress trap

for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - adjacency - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - Gaston Bachelard - French philosopher

adjacency - between - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - adjacency statement - Prometheus complex and progress traps have much in common: - both look at the shadow side of innovation - The mythology of Icarus geting too close the sun is one common to both - Bachelard wrote a pith work on the analysis of the element of fire, in which he introduced the concept of the Prometheus complex - https://philpapers.org/rec/OSEPCA

for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap

quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)

• Our hands and our brains will,
  • perhaps unconsciously
• drift towad the very thing we're debating if we should do
• author - Jenny Thomson

for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap

quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)

• As the rational, intellectual part of ourselves wrestles with the decision,
  • a deeper Promethean part of ourselves has pressed it (the red button) already
• author - Jenny Thomson

for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin - Gaston Bachelard - philosopher

summary - This short article brings up an interesting connection between - the Prometheus complex, - a term coined by the French philosopher Gaston Bachelard and - progress traps, - the unintended consequences of progress - The key insight is that human beings may have an Achilles Heel - the desire to know, even at the cost of harm - could be such a powerful impulsive urge - that we throw caution to the wind and - Icarus mythology may be a self-fulfilling prophecy - This also echos the views of my colleague Gyuri Lajos, - that invention for invention sake possesses this very dark side. - This is an important adjacency - as it questions the ethics of knowledge for knowledge sake - As we know from - the history of - progress and its shadowy counterpart, - the progress trap - our impulsive urge to invent has harmful impacts on everyone, - and these continually compound with time

for - impulsive urge - invention - adjacency - progress trap - impulsive urge to invent - Prometheus complex - Gyuri Lajos perspective

Adjacency - between - progress trap - impulsive urge - Gyuri Lajos perspective - Prometheus complex - adjacency statement - It would seem that the the Prometheus complex - is an apt description of that which Gyuri objects to in innovation, namely - innovation for innovation sake - in other words, the impulsive urge merely to know - even if it brings a terrible price

for - quote - Dan Carlin - quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin

quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - (see below)

• [I wonder] whether or not human society actually has the agency that we think we have
  • to not invent something if we think it might be bad.
• If you look down the technological road in the distance and see something horrible, could humankind go,
  • ‘Oh, you know what? We’re just not going to go there.’
• I’m not sure we have that agency.

comment - Deep Humanity praxis proposes that a new discipline of Progress traps is what is needed to do exactly this - Give us a meta perspective so that we can assess future harm and damage as - AN ACTIONABLE FORESIGHT, not a - TREATABLE HINDSIGHT

progress trap - PFAS in blood

for - progress trap - microplastics - rain - progress trap - plastic

Progress Trap - Ronald Wright - 2004 Massey Lecture Series - A Short History of Progress

progress trap - singularity

for - progress trap

• Don't give them a problem to solve
• Ask them
  • to identify what the problem is and
  • what the context is and
  • what support is needed

comment - From a Deep Humanity perspective on - emptiness - progress and it's shadow accomplice - the progress trap - There needs to be an awareness of the siloing effect of even posing a problem - for that is the genesis of the progress trap

for - progress trap - graphene - safety study

for - progress trap - AI

for - dorsal light response - flying insects attracted to light - light pollution - progress trap - light pollution

for - AI progress trap - bad actor - synthesize bioweapon - AI progress trap - Coscientist and cloud lab - bad actors

for - progress trap - Rome - lead poisoning

for + progress trap - traffic fumes - Alzheimer's

for - progress trap - sexually explicit AI deepfake - Taylor Swift - sexually explicit AI deepfake

for - progress trap - tires - micro plastic p pollution

for - nature-based carbon sequestration - reestablish whale populations - Nate Hagen - The Great Simplification - David King - climate crisis - solutions - progress trap - overfishing - whales

for - progress trap - micro plastic in bottled water

• for: canonical unit, collaborative commons - missing part - open learning commons, question - process trap - natural capital

• comment

  • in this context, indyweb and Indranet are not the canonical unit, but then, it seems the model is fundamentally missing the functionality provided but the Indyweb and Indranet, which is and open learning system.
  • without such an open learning system that captures the essence of his humans learn, the activity of problem-solving cannot be properly contextualised, along with all of limitations leading to progress traps.
  • The entire approach of posing a problem, then solving it is inherently limited due to the fractal intertwingularity of reality.

• question: progress trap - natural capital

  • It is important to be aware that there is a real potential for a progress trap to emerge here, as any metric is liable to be abused

• annotate
• for: AI - progress trap, technology - colonialism

• for: progress trap - urgent need for a new science

• comment

  • Science and technology are constantly producing progress traps. Climate crisis is a major example, but there are so many other. We really and urgently need to motivate for a new field of study of progress traps in general.

• for: example - progress trap - AI - mistranslation

• for: progress trap -AI, carbon footprint - AI, progress trap - AI - bias, progress trap - AI - situatedness

• for: quote - Marjorie Kelly, quote - finacialization, progress trap - financialization, progress trap - capitalism, speculative investing

• quote: Marjorie Kelly

  • we're not in the economy of the 1950s anymore.
  • And we act as though we are, that finance is this productive force and it's building, it's building wealth.
  • Well, for the most part, it's not.
  • There's so much financialization, so many financial assets, that they've become an extractive force.
    • And a big piece of this is that we're not really distinguishing between
      • productive investments and
      • speculative investments

• for: progress trap - green growth - nickel mining - evicting uncontacted tribe

• progress trap: green growth - mining

  • Capitalist logic justifies this violence
  • We destroy the earth in order to save the earth
  • Question
    • Is this really the way we should be doing things?
    • Is the green growth agenda really going to keep humanity safe? Or will the unintended consequences, the progress trap be worse than the problem it is attempting to solve?

• for: progress trap, Inner Development Goals, SoNeC, SRG Mapping Tool

• comment

  • nice! (emoji: pleasant surprise) I wonder if Ferial or Joseph gave some inputs here, or was the SoNeC team already familiar with progress traps?
  • SRG mapping tool and Deep Humanity are designed to reveal complexity emerging from multiple, diverse perspectives mapped together so can compliment SoNeC application of Inner Development Goals

• for: progress trap - economic

• for: quote - Yuval Noah Harari - AI progress trap, progress trap - AI, quote - progress trap

• quote it is extremely dangerous to create such an autonomous agent when we do not know how to control it, when we can't ensure that it will not escape our control ad start making decisions and creating new things which will harm us instead of benefit us

• author: Yuval Noah Harari
• date 2023

• for: example - stupid AI - nuclear launch, AI - progress trap - example - nuclear launch

• for: quote - Thomas Homer-Dixon, quote - danger of AI, AI progress trap

• quote: danger of AI

  • I think the most dangerous thing about AI is not super smart AI, it's stupid AI that is good enough to be put in charge of certain processes but not good enough to not make really bad mistakes
• author: Thomas Homer-Dixon
• date: 2021

• for: progress trap

• progress trap: speed of vaccination

  • If the vaccine was imperfect and caused harm, it could have caused harm to 40% of three population in a short period of time.
  • the shorter the time for something to spread globally, the faster unintended consequence can spread and cause harm

• for: definition - enough vs feasible dilemma, double bind, progress trap

• definition: enough vs feasible dilemma

  • the changes that are actually required are not feasible to do
  • what is feasible to do is not enough
  • this puts us in a double bind
  • we need to have interventions that are BOTH
    • enough to solve these problems and are
    • feasible to execute

• for: progress trap - Kevin Anderson

• validation: SRG mapping tool, Indyweb

• for: progress trap - free market, example - government policy - why it's needed

• for: Progress trap - mouthwash, mouthwash - blood pressure

• for: example - complexity - automobile, example - progress trap - automobile

• for: progress trap, moloch - progress trap, progress trap - Moloch
• comment
  • This explanation leaves out one variable that defines the progress trap
    • https://hyp.is/6Lb6Uv5NEe2ZerOrftOHfA/www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/321797-a-short-history-of-progress

• for: progress trap

• comment

  • this is similar to the Deep Humanity, contextual preamble that introduces progress traps.

• for: holism, progress trap, double bind, SDG failure

• comment

  • In the current silo'd approach typified by the SDGs, unintended consequences, or progress traps are unavoidable and are built into the approach itself.

• for: definition, definition - double bind

• definition: double bind

  • the definition of a double bind is that you have a problem (a bind) in one context and you can't actually solve it in that context because it's caught in another context
  • Gregory Bateson defined the double bind as an evolutionary trait of species due to their changing nature.
    • Since individuals of a species are constantly changing, there comes a day when all that it knows what to do in order to survive is outdated due to the changing environment. When it repeats the old behavior that served its survival in the past, it dies.

• comment

  • adjacency
    • between
      • double bind
      • progress trap
  • adjacency statement
    • progress traps are related to double binds because in a progress trap, an implemented solution to a problem in one context gives rise to a new problem in another context.
    • the original problem (bind) in one context appears to be resolvable but actual isn't. Future unfolding of the implemented solution unfold a future unexpected problem.
    • The two problems are not simultaneously occurring as in a double bind, but time-delayed
    • both double bind and progress traps emerge from the same root of violating holism
    • in not grasping the implications of the emptiness of phenomena, we ignore intertwingled nature of reality, we circumvent Indra's meet of jewels at our own peril

• for: polycrisis, quote, quote - polycrisis, quote - Nora Bateson

• quote

  • every time we pick at one piece of those polycrisis we end up actually creating more problems in other contexts

• author: Nora Bateson

• example

  • climate change If we do, all emissions suddenly, we will create an economic crisis, then without money, a health and social crisis

• for: metacrisis framework, progress trap - metacrisis sensemaking

• comment

  • progress trap framing would help provide an overarching sensemaking framework

• for: progress trap, progress trap - climate change - zombie virus

• for: claim, claim - Hamas strategy, Hamas's trap

• claim

  • Hamas's brutality is motivated to bring out the inhumanity in the Israeli army to kill many Palestinians and thereby escalate the hatred, destroying any chance for peace for decades to come
  • Hamas does not want other Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel
  • Now, the citizens and government of Israel are in a struggle with their souls / minds to resist falling into Hamas's trap
• author: Yuval Noah Harari
• date: Sept 2023

• for: progress trap, progress trap - AI, progress trap - AI - writing research papers

• comment

  • potential fakes
    • climate science fakes by big oil think tanks
    • Covid and virus research
    • race issues
    • gender issues

• for: instant evolution, AI - instant evolution, progress trap, progress trap - AI - instant evolution, progress trap - robotics

• for: synthetic biology, progress trap - synthetic biology

• for: progress trap, progress trap - AI

• for: progress trap, progress trap - Aza Raskin, progress trap - internet, quote, quote - Aza Raskin, quote - progress trap, quote - progress trap - internet

• quote

  • Unless you've felt it, unless you've cried over the fact that we really thought we were making the world a better place with the internet... We 100 per cent believed that.

• for: annotate, annotate - social media, progress trap - social media

• source: connectathon 2023 09 23

  • session on social media

• for: unintended consequences, progress trap, progress trap - toothpaste, progress trap - fluoride

• for: progress trap, progress trap - REP, progress trap - Renewable Energy Prosumerism

-progress trap - commercialization - exclusion - instrumentation - projectification - Responsibilization and overburdening - Hidden systemic repurcussions

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, progress trap - new life forms, progress trap - bioengineering
• comment
  • this opens up a big can of worms. A general theory of progress traps (https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=progress+trap) is urgently needed to systematically study the unintended consequences of progress.

• for: progress trap, AI, AI - care drive
• comment
  • the precautionary principle needs to be observed with AI because it has such vast artificial cognitive, pattern-recognition processes at its disposal
  • AI will also make mistakes, but the degree of power behind the mistaken decision, recommendation or action is the degree of unintended consequences or progress trap
  • An example nightmare scenario could be:
    • AI could decide that humans are contradicting their own goal of a stable climate system and if it's in control, may think it knows better and perform whole system change that dramatically reduces human induced climate change but actually harms a lot of humans in the process, for reaching the goal of saving the climate system plus a sufficient subset of humans to start all over.

• for: progress trap, progress trap - atomic bomb

• for: cultural evolution, cumulative cultural evolution, CCE, bioengineering, novel life form, culturally evolved life, bioethics, progress trap, progress trap - bioengineering, progress trap - genetic engineering
• comment
  • cultural evolution, which itself emerges from biological evolution is acting upon itself to create new life forms that have no evolutionary backstory
  • this is tantamount to playing God
  • progress traps often emerge out of the large speed mismatch between cultural and biological/genetic evolution.
  • Nowhere is this more profound than in bioengineering of new forms of life with no evolutionary history
  • This presents profound ethical challenges

• for: progress trap, red fire ants, fire ants, progress trap - shipping, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - shipping

• paraphrase

  • Fire ants would be devastating if released in continental Europe and even more all around the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The cost for human economies and well-being would be enormous. Where they have been invasive, they have:
    • displaced native ant and other species
    • damage electrical equipment
  • A genetic analysis of the Italian ants suggests they likely came from either China or the United States.
  • In the U.S., the species causes an estimated $6 billion in damage each year.
  • The insects spread internationally via shipping, especially of plants and soil.
  • Red fire ants have been detected in imported products in Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands, but not as wild colonies.

• for: dualism, dualism - psychology, unintended consequences, unintended consequences - dualism in psychology, progress trap, progress trap - dualism in psychology

• paraphrase

  • The dualism of scientific materialism gives rise to one-person psychologies
    • and are arguably complicit in much of the psychological and social damage we are now recognising.
  • For instance, a good deal of the historical denial of the role of psychological and social trauma has been traced
    • back to the Freudian model’s almost exclusive focus on the internal world;
      • the actual impact of others and society has been, as a result, relatively ignored.
  • Modern psychiatry, which accepts the same philosophical model but changes the level of explanation, is just as culpable.
  • Likewise CBT, with its focus on dysfunctional thought patterns and rational remedies administered from the outside, also follows the same misguided philosophy.

• question

  • what are concrete ways this has caused harm?
• future work
  • perform literature review on case studies where Winnicott's approach has been a more constructive therapeutic one

for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - Elon Musk, progress trap - Elon Musk - comment - the US military, Ukraine military have to deal with the unintended consequence of a vital communication system that can be turned off without notice or warning - what if Putin calls up Musk and says to him: - If you don't turn the Starlink off when Ukraine tries to mount major attack on Crimea, I will launch my nukes - What will Musk do then?

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, playing God, Elon Musk - Starlink - Ukraine, Elon Musk- Crimea, Elon Musk - nuclear war, quote, quote - Elon Musk - nuclear war - starlink - crimea
• quote
  • How am I in this war?
  • Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars.
  • It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.
• author: Elon Musk
• comment
  • the Tech genius could not predict the progress trap of starlink being used by the Ukrainian army to send submarine drones to blow up Russian ships
  • so he was forced into a position of playing God

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, nuclear war, Elon Musk - Ukraine, playing God

• comment

  • Here, Elon Musk demonstrates how the most powerful technological leaders are themselves unable to predict the unintended consequences of progress.
  • This story exposes the power that no tech titan is immune to
    • making one dimensional decisions based on high dimensional information whose salient relationships can not be predicted ahead of time.
  • The dilemma of power - it is opaque and puts the fate of humanity in the decision of a few God-like individuals
  • Do 8 billion people really trust one man to decide the fate of civilization?
  • And yet, this is the kind of world that those in power continue to reify by consolidating their positions
  • The myth of dictators wanting to hold onto power at all costs goes beyond the sphere of politics

• for: debt trap, economic colonialism, progress trap, JETP, UETP, Invesitgate, investigate - JETP
• progress trap
  • in building out renewable infrastructure, these loans and grants may further increase debt to disenfranchised countries
  • then it is no longer Just energy transition but becomes Unjust Energy Transition Partnerships (UETP)
  • if not done right, JETP can turn into UETP
  • This definitely requires further investigation!
• investigate
  • whether JETP are REALLY JUST!

• for: fossil capitalism, progress trap, intersectionality, social norms, social norms - waste, externalization, capitalism

• title

  • Waves of Abandonment
    • The Permian Basin is ground zero for a billion-dollar surge of zombie oil wells

• summary

  • a story that illustrates the intersectionality of fossil capitalism
    • progress trap
    • exploitation
    • tragedy of the commons
    • fossil fuel industry
    • gold rush
    • externalization
    • fossil capitalism

• Comment

  • Yet another example of capitalism's tendency to externalize manifests at the most basic level.
  • The tendency to treat nature as an inexhaustable garbage dumping ground seems to be built into our culture's economic norms taught to us by most parents and society at large.
  • There are not enough parents that teach their children to love, respect and feel that they are an intrinsic part of nature.
  • The externalization our society teaches us in the form of destructive, widely-accepted social norms of waste such as::
    • having the concept of waste and garbage
    • garbage taken out once a week
    • waste bins everywhere
    • keep our backyard clean, but at the expense of trucking out our garbage to some unknown place
  • has been enculturated into us from early age

• for: misinformation, disinformation, fake news, quote, quote - Greg Shatan, quote - misinformation, progress trap - misinformation, progress trap - digital technology, indyweb - support
• quote
  • The instinctual BS-meter is not enough.
  • The next version of the ‘BS-meter’ will need to be technologically based.
  • The tricks of misinformation have far outstripped the ability of people to reliably tell whether they are receiving BS or not
• author: Greg Shatan
  • lawyer, Moses & Singer LLP
    • not to mention that it requires a constant state of vigilance that’s exhausting to maintain.
  • I think that the ability and usefulness of the web to enable positive grassroots civic communication will be harnessed,
    • moving beyond mailing lists and fairly static one-way websites.

• for: gig economy, progress trap, unintended consequence, quote, quote - unintended consequence, quote - progress trap, quote James Mickens
• quote
  • the gig economy is enabled by technology;
  • technology finds buyers for workers and their services.
  • However, given the choice between
    • an economy with many gig workers and
    • an economy with an equivalent number of traditional middle-class jobs,
  • I think that most people would prefer the latter.
• author: James Mickens
  • associate professor of computer science, Harvard University

• for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, unintended consequence, quotation - unintended consequence
• quote
  • Technology and social innovation intended to overcome the negatives of the digital age
    • will likely cause additional negative consequences. Examples include:
      • the decentralized web,
      • end-to-end encryption,
      • AI and machine learning,
      • social media.
• author: Larry Masinter -internet pioneer, formerly with Adobe, AT&T Labs and Xerox PARC, who helped create internet and web standards with IETF and W3C

• for: progress trap, unintended consequences, Indyweb - justifiication
• description
  • a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
    • in other words, progress traps
• comment
  • also a lot of rich material to justify the Indyweb's design ethos

• for: progress trap, quote, quote - progress trap, quote Brian Southwell, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International

• quote

  • We are likely to make some gains in personal health, are likely to face some collective concerns in terms of environmental health and
  • are not likely to cope with the alienation and despair that is a part of a life lived largely online.
  • In the latter case, there is a disconnect between the long period of evolution that honed our humanity and
  • the short period of rapid technology change we are facing.

• author: Brian Southwell

  • director, Science in the Public Sphere Program, RTI International

• for: quote, quote - Stowe Boyd, quote - progress trap, quote - unintended consequences, unintended consequences, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap
• quote:
  • Technological change is an accelerant and acts on the social ills like pouring gasoline on a fire
• author: Sowe Boyd
  • consulting futurist on technological evolution and the future of work
• paraphrase
  • In an uncontrolled hyper-capitalist society,
    • the explosion in technologies over the past 30 years has only
      • widened inequality,
      • concentrated wealth and
      • led to greater social division.
    • And it is speeding up with the rise of artificial intelligence,
      • which like globalization has destabilized Western industrial economies while admittedly pulling hundreds of millions elsewhere out of poverty.
  • And the boiling exhaust of this set of forces is pushing the planet into a climate catastrophe. -The world is as unready for hundreds of millions of climate refugees as it was for the plague.
  • However, some variant of social media will likely form the context for the rise of a global movement to stop the madness
    • which I call the Human Spring
  • which will be more like
    • Occupy or
    • the Yellow Vests
  • than traditional politics.
  • I anticipate a grassroots movement
    • characterized by
      • general strikes,
      • political action,
      • protest and
      • widespread disruption of the economy
    • that will confront the economic and political system of the West.
  • Lead by the young, ultimately this will lead to large-scale political reforms, such as
    • universal health care,
    • direct democracy,
    • a new set of rights for individuals and
    • a large set of checks on the power of
      • corporations and
      • political parties.
  • For example,
    • eliminating corporate contributions to political campaigns,
    • countering monopolies and
    • effectively accounting for economic externalities, like carbon.

-for: quote, quote - Jennifer Jarratt, quote - progress trap, progress trap, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, quote - unintended consequences, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap - quote: with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all! - author: Jennifer Jarratt - co-principal of Leading Futurists LLC

• for: quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias,quote - future of democracy, quote - tilting elections, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
• quote
  • The big tech companies, left to their own devices , have already had a net negative effect on societies worldwide.
  • At the moment, the three big threats these companies pose
    • aggressive surveillance,
    • arbitrary suppression of content,
      • the censorship problem, and
    • the subtle manipulation of
      • thoughts,
      • behaviors,
      • votes,
      • purchases,
      • attitudes and
      • beliefs
    • are unchecked worldwide
• author: Robert Epstein
  • senior research psychologist at American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology
• paraphrase
  • Epstein's organization is building two technologies that assist in combating these problems:
    • passively monitor what big tech companies are showing people online,
    • smart algorithms that will ultimately be able to identify online manipulations in realtime:
      • biased search results,
      • biased search suggestions,
      • biased newsfeeds,
      • platform-generated targeted messages,
      • platform-engineered virality,
      • shadow-banning,
      • email suppression, etc.
  • Tech evolves too quickly to be managed by laws and regulations,
    • but monitoring systems are tech, and they can and will be used to curtail the destructive and dangerous powers of companies like Google and Facebook on an ongoing basis.
• reference
  • seminar paper on monitoring systems, ‘Taming Big Tech -: https://is.gd/K4caTW.

• for: progress traps, progress, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, unintended consequences - technology, unintended consequences - digital technology, progress trap - quotations, quote, quote - progress trap
• title: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
• authors: emily A Vogels, Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson
• year: June 30, 2020
• description: a good source of quotations on progress traps / unintended consequences of digital technology from this Pew Research 2020 report on the future of the digital technology and democracy.
  • the Pew Research Center interviewed a lot of experts in the field
  • in particular, section 5 of the report entitled
    • "Tech causes more problems than it can solve" is quite salient for the topic of progress traps
  • The Indyweb actually addresses many of these problems:
    • https://opencollective.com/open-learning-commons/projects/indy-learning-commons

• for: quote, quote - Barry Chudakov, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
• quote
• paraphrase
  • Technology’s greatest contribution to social and civic innovation in the next decade
  • will be to provide
    • accurate, user-friendly context and
    • honest assessment of
      • issues,
      • problems and
      • potential solutions / comment - indyweb /
  • We are facing greater accelerations of
    • climate change,
    • social mobility,
    • pollution,
    • immigration and
    • resource issues.
  • Our problems have gone from complicated to wicked.
  • We need
    • clear answers and
    • discussions that are
      • cogent,
      • relevant and
      • true to facts.
  • Technology must guard against becoming a platform to enable targeted chaos,
  • that is, using technology as a means to
    • obfuscate and
    • manipulate.
  • We are all now living in Sim City:
  • The digital world is showing us a sim,
    • or digital mirror,
  • of each aspect of reality.
  • The most successful social and civic innovation I expect to see by 2030
  • is a massive restructuring of our educational systems based on new and emerging mirror digital worlds. / comment: This bodes well for Indyweb for education/
  • We will then need to expand our information presentations to include
    • verifiable factfulness that ensures any digital presentation faithfully and
    • accurately matches the physical realities.
  • Just as medicine went from
    • bloodletting and leeches and lobotomies to
    • open-heart surgery and artificial limbs,
  • technology will begin to modernize information flows around core issues: urgent need, future implications, accurate assessment.
  • Technology can play a crucial role to move humanity
    • from blame fantasies
    • to focused attention and working solutions.”

• for: corporate power, technology - capitalism, capitalism - exploitation, Danah Boyd, progress trap
• paraphrase
• quote
  • technology in the U.S. is caught up in American late-stage (or financialized) capitalism
    • where profitability isn’t the goal;
    • perpetual return on investment is.
  • Given this, the tools that we’re seeing developed by corporations
  • reinforce capitalist agendas.
  • Innovation will require pushing past this capitalist infrastructure to achieve the social benefits and civic innovation that will work in the United States.
  • China is a whole other ball of wax.
  • If you want to go there, follow up with me. But pay attention to Taobao centers.
  • We haven’t hit peak awful yet.
  • I have every confidence that social and civic innovation can be beneficial in the long run
    • with a caveat that I think that climate change dynamics might ruin all of that
  • but no matter what, I don’t think we’re going to see significant positive change by 2030.
  • I think things are going to get much worse before they start to get better.
  • I should also note that I don’t think that many players have taken responsibility for what’s unfolding. -Yes, tech companies are starting to see that things might be a problem,
    • but that’s only on the surface. -News media does not at all acknowledge its role in amplifying discord,
    • or its financialized dynamics.
  • The major financiers of this economy don’t take any responsibility for what’s unfolding. Etc.
• author: Dana Boyd
  • principal researcher, Microsoft Research
  • founder, Data & Society

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Doc Searls
• quote
  • What won’t change is people’s tendency toward gossip,
    • tribalism driven by gossip and the ability of anybody to inform anybody else about anything,
      • including wrongly.
  • The only places where news won’t skew fake will be localities in the natural world.
  • That’s where the digital and the physical connect best.
  • Also expect the internet to break into pieces, with
    • the U.S.,
    • Europe and
    • China
  • becoming increasingly isolated by different value systems and governance approaches toward
    • networks and
    • what runs on them.

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - David Weinberger
• quote: I see no reason to think that the current situation will change:
  • Tech will cause problems that require innovative solutions and
  • tech will be part of those solutions.
  • Machine learning (ML) is right now an example of this
• author: David Weinberger
  • senior researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society

• for: progress trap, unintended consequence, unintended consequence - digital technology, quote, quote - progress trap, quote - Jonathan Grudin
• quote: Can our fundamental human need for close community be restored or
  • will we become more isolated, anxious and susceptible to manipulation?
• author: Jonathan Grudin
  • principal researcher, Microsoft

• for: quote, quote - Esther Dyson, quote - progress trap, quote - progress traps, progress trap,
• quote: "If tech doesn’t contribute to solving some of the problems it creates, we are doomed"
• author: Esther Dyson
  • internet pioneer
  • journalist
  • entrepreneur
  • executive founder of Way to Wellville

• for: progress, progress trap, exponential growth - knowledge, exponential growth - technology, technology - exponential growth, US patents, patents, intellectual property -description: GIF graph of US patents from the start in 1825 to 2021

• for: transition, transition - energy, progress, progress traps
• title: The Energy Transition Is a Technological Revolution — with a Deadline
• subtitle: What historical transitions — from water wheels to semiconductors — can teach us about today’s energy transition.
• authors
  • Yuki Numata
  • Laurens Speelman
• date: Aug 10, 2023
• source: https://rmi.org/the-energy-transition-is-a-technological-revolution-with-a-deadline/

• for: progress trap, cumulative cultural evolution, gene-culture co-evolution, speed of cultural evolution, human genome project
• paraphrase
  • the human genome project took 10 years and cost 3 billion dollars
  • with NGS technology, 10 years later, the same job takes 1 day and costs $15,000 dollars

• for: indyweb, silos, emptiness - example, entanglement - example, progress trap
• paraphrase
• quote
  • all the problems I've mentioned are being tackled by groups of people
  • sad thing is those people are often operating in silos just concerned to solve their particular problem
    • not realizing that if they don't have the whole picture they may solve their problem
    • and cause problems in other places
• author
  • Jane Goodall
• comment
  • the Indyweb and SRG strategy is designed specifically to mitigate progress traps through radical collaboration built into the communication and information system itself.

• for: progress trap, sense of lack, the lack project, collective lack project, individual lack project
• key insight
  • progress, and the shadow side, the progress trap
  • is the collective lack project, that corresponds to the individual's lack project