Reactor uranium requirements projected to increase by 75% by 2040As of 1 January 2019, a total of 450 commercial nuclear reactors were connected to the grid globally, with a net generating capacity of 396GWe requiring about 59,200tU annually. “Taking into account changes in policies announced in several countries and revised nuclear programmes, world nuclear capacity is projected to grow to between 354GWe net in the low demand case and about 626GWe net in the high demand case by 2040. The low case represents a decrease of about 11% from 2018 nuclear generating capacity, while the high case represents an increase of about 58%.”Accordingly, world annual reactor-related uranium requirements (excluding mixed oxide fuel - mox) are projected to rise to between 56,640 tU and 100,225 tU by 2040. Nuclear capacity projections vary considerably from region to region. “The East Asia region is projected to experience the largest increase, which, by 2040, could result in increases of more than 24% and 138% over 2018 capacity in the low and high cases, respectively.”Nuclear capacity in non-EU member countries on the European continent is also projected to increase considerably, with 66GWe of capacity projected by 2040 in the high case (increases of about 50% over 2018 capacity). Other regions projected to experience significant nuclear capacity growth include the Middle East, Central and Southern Asia, with more modest growth projected in Africa, Central and South America, and the South-eastern Asia regions. For North America, the projections see nuclear generating capacity decreasing by 2040 in both the low and high cases, depending largely on future electricity demand, lifetime extension of existing reactors and government policies with respect to greenhouse gas emissions.“The reality of financial losses in several reactors in the United States has resulted in a larger number of premature shutdowns to be assumed. In the European Union, nuclear capacity in 2040 is projected to decrease by 52% in the low case scenario and decrease by 8% in the high case, if actual policies are maintained.”The report identifies key factors influencing future nuclear energy capacity as projected electricity demand, the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants, as well as funding arrangements for such capital-intensive projects, proposed waste management strategies and public acceptance of nuclear energy. “The extent to which nuclear energy is seen to be beneficial in climate change mitigation could contribute to even greater projected growth in nuclear capacity and, consequently, in uranium demand.”

Energy and Environmental Impacts The nuclear fuel cycle is the entire process of producing, using, and disposing of uranium fuel. Powering a one-gigawatt nuclear plant for a year can require mining 20,000-400,000 mt of ore, processing it into 27.6 mt of uranium fuel, and disposing of 27.6 mt of highly radioactive spent fuel, of which 90% (by volume) is low-level waste, 7% is intermediate-level waste, and 3% is high-level waste.16,17 U.S. plants currently use “once-through” fuel cycles with no reprocessing.18,19 A uranium fuel pellet (~1/2 in. height and diameter) contains the energy equivalent of one ton of coal or 149 gallons of oil.10 Typical reactors hold 18 million pellets.6 Each kWh of nuclear electricity requires 0.1-0.3 kWh of life cycle energy inputs.20 Although nuclear electricity generation itself produces no GHG emissions, other fuel cycle activities do release emissions.21 The life cycle GHG intensity of nuclear power is estimated to be 34-60 gCO2e/kWh—far below baseload sources such as coal (1,001 gCO2e/kWh).21,22 Nuclear power plants consume 270-670 gallons of water/MWh, depending on operating efficiency and site conditions.23 Uranium is mostly extracted by open pit mining (16.1%), underground mining (20%) and in-situ leaching (ISL) (57.4%).14 ISL, the injection of acidic/alkaline solutions underground to dissolve and pump uranium to the surface, eliminates ore tailings associated with other mining but raises aquifer protection concerns.24 ISL standards were initially instituted in 1983, and have been amended multiple times since, most recently in 1995.25

Nuclear Fuel Most nuclear reactors use “enriched” uranium, meaning the fuel has a higher concentration of uranium-235 (U-235) isotopes, which are easier to split to produce energy. When it is mined, uranium ore averages less than 1% U-235.9 Milling and enrichment processes crush the ore, use solvents to extract uranium oxide (U3O8, i.e., yellowcake), and chemically convert it to uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which is enriched to increase the U-235 concentration in the fuel. Finally, a fuel fabricator converts UF6 into UO2 powder that is pressed into pellets with 3%-5% U-235 concentrations.10 Uranium can be enriched by gaseous diffusion or gas centrifuge. Both concentrate the slightly lighter U-235 molecules from a gas containing mostly U-238, the former with membrane filters and the latter by spinning. Other technologies are currently in development, with laser enrichment processes closest to commercial viability.11 In 2019, 79 metric tons (mt) of U3O8 were extracted from 6 mines in the U.S.12 The highest grade ore in the U.S. average less than 1% uranium, some Canadian ore is more than 15% uranium.13,14 1% of uranium available at reasonable cost is found in the U.S. The largest deposits are in Australia (28%), Kazakhstan (15%), Canada (9%), and Russia (8%).14 U.S. nuclear plants purchased 22,135 mt of uranium in 2020. Fuel was imported mostly from Canada (22%), Kazakhstan (22%), Russia (15%) and Australia (11%).15 Globally, nuclear power reactors are forecast to require 68,269 mt of uranium in 2021.4