if we exceed 1.5° C, we're likely going to push both the Amazon basin and the top of Coral Reef systems across the threshold if we permanently stay above 1.5.
for - planetary tipping point - amazon rainforest & coral reefs will tip above 1.5 Deg C - Rockstrom
the air warms adiabatically which means that it depends on the lapse rate as you as you go to lower and lower altitudes um the temperature increases so the lapse rate is actually the drop of temperature as you get further from the surface of the Earth in dry air the adiabatic lapse rate is n about 10° CS per kilometer or about a degree celsius per uh 100 MERS okay so the as the air is coming down it's warming about 1° cels for each 100 meters of desent
for - physics - adiabatic warming - lapse rate - Santa Ana winds - venturi effect through canyons increases wind speed - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10 - stats - Santa Ana winds warms 1 Deg C every 100 meter of descent due to adiabatic warming lapse rate - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
there still seems to be a little bit of Gap in data that doesn't account for 0.2 de celsus warming that is present extra scientists have not been able to comfortably explain over the past in fact several years why there is this little bit of extra global warming it is a major major Gap
for - stats - climate crisis - global mean temperature gap in models vs measurement of - 0.2 Deg C - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec
f only current NDCs are implemented and no further ambition is shown in the newpledges, the best we could expect to achieve is catastrophic global warming of up to2.6°C over the course of the century
for - stats - Current National Declared Commitments (NDCs) only take us to a disastrous 2.6 Deg. C over the course of the century.- UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages
Since greenhouse gas emissions grew 1.3 per cent year-on-year to 57.1 gigatonsof carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023, the task has become harder; 7.5 per centmust be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C
for - stats - GHG emissions grew 1.3 % year-on-year to 57.1 Gton CO2 eq in 2023 - UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages - stats - 7.5% decarbonization rate is now required every year to stay under 1.5 Deg C - UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages
To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by2030, compared to 2019 levels.
for - stats - 2030 emissions - 42% lower than 2019 to stay within 1.5 Deg C - UN 2024 Emission's Gap Report
we hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it so we we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use an 11-year running average so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it but it but it may well be that we're already in that long um like that that long run average we might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
for - quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson
quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson - (see below) - We hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - We we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use n 11-year running average - so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - But it may well be that we're already in that long run average - We might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
the targets of the Paris Agreement are now beyond the reach of incrementalism.
for - climate target of 1.5 Deg C - incrementalism won't work - rapid system change is necessary
there was a paper that came out a few years ago showing that five degrees at the pace we're doing would be 00:40:13 is like easily sufficient to reproduce some of these catastrophes in Earth history
for - climate crisis - 5 deg C could reproduce similar levels of catastrophes as those in early earth history
If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.
for - quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce
quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce - (see below) - If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, - mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans - through anthropogenic global warming, - which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.
“A second Trump term is game over for the climate — really!”
for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - a Second Trump presidency - polycrisis - politics and climate crisis - climate mitigation strategy - voting in 2024 U.S. election - adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting
adjacency - between - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Trump's presidency is existential threat to humanity - Gen Z voting - 2024 election - adjacency statement - Michael Mann's quote " A second Trump term is game over for the climate - really" applies to the 2024 election if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. - Trumps dismal environmental record in his 2016 to 2020 term speaks for itself. He would do something similiar in 2025 if he were the president. G - Given there are only 5 years and 172 days before we hit the dangerous threshold of burning through all the carbon budget for humanity, - https://climateclock.world/ - It is questionable whether Biden's government alone can do enough, but certainly if Trump won the 2024 election, his term in office would create a regression severe enough to put the Paris Climate goal of staying within 1.5 Deg C out of reach, and risk triggering major planetary tipping points - A Biden government is evidence-based and believes in anthropogenic climate change and is already taking measures to mitigate it. A Trump government is not evidence-based and is supported by incumbent fossil fuel industry so does not have the interest of the U.S. population nor all of humanity at heart. - Hence, the 2024 U.S. election can really determine the fate of humanity. - Gen Z can play a critical role for humanity by voting against a government that would, in leading climate scientists Michael Mann's words, be game over for a stable climate, and therefore put humanity and unimaginable risk. - Gen Z can swing the vote to a government willing to deal with the climate crisis over one in climate denial so voting activists need to be alerted to this and create the right messaging to reach Gen Z - https://hyp.is/LOud7sBBEe6S0D8itLHw1A/circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024
now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - uncertainty at 1.5 Deg C for years
quote: Johan Rockstrom
for: climate solutions - low economic growth, Jason Hickel,
For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
for: 1.5 Deg C target - 50/50 chance
comment
i have absolutely no doubt about that if we go even to three degrees warming and we're about 1.2 right at the moment above pre-industrial temperatures but if we go to even three degrees warming there isn't an ecosystem on the planet 00:35:24 that will not be shredded by that and there's no prospect for anything resembling liberal democracy to serve to survive in a world that's three degrees warmer than it was pre-industrial times
For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
for: do people know? - 50% chance, 1.5 Deg. C target - is still a crap shoot
new trailmark: do people know?
do people know?: 50% chance
Common objective on a local level, like a specific problemNeighbourhood cooperation to build better relationships, without a specific objectiveAn individual takes the initiative to build a neighbourhood community, driven by a visionof a better world.
for: question - SONEC alignment to earth system boundaries
question
It may be that the climate denialists, even in the 1980s, knew this very well. They denied global heating because they saw it meant social and political change on a scale never seen before. An economic system that had made millions rich and billions at least comfortable would collapse. For those who’ve benefited from the system, death is less frightening than poverty.
for: quote - staying under 1.5 Deg C
quote: staying under 1.5 Deg C
Cutting emissions back to bring global temperatures down to 1.5 C or 2 C would be the equivalent of shutting down China, the United States, India, Japan and Russia.
for: stats - staying under 1.5 Deg C
stats: staying under 1.5 Deg C
for: visualizations - sea level rise at 3 Deg C
comment
In a scenario that hits global net zero emissions by 2050, declines in demand are sufficiently steep that no new long lead-time conventional oil and gas projects are required. Some existing production would even need to be shut in. In 2040, more than 7 million barrels per day of oil production is pushed out of operation before the end of its technical lifetime in a 1.5 °C scenario.
for: stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production
stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production
If all national energy and climate goals are reached, this value is lower by 25%, and by 60% if the world gets on track to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.
for: stats - fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world
stats: fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world
if governments deliver in full on their national energy and climate pledges, then oil and gas demand would be 45% below today's level by 2050 and the temperature rise could be limited to 1.7 °C. If governments successfully pursue a 1.5 °C trajectory, and emissions from the global energy sector reach net zero by mid-century, oil and gas use would fall by 75% to 2050.
for: Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C, NDC insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C
stats: climate change - NDC
hat that's going to mean is that a lot of the things um that again that this wealthy say onethird of our society has normalized will have to change the size of our houses 00:12:01 we shouldn't be building really huge houses anymore I would also go further and say if we are really serious about climate change we need to think about the very large properties that we have which there are many of in our society 00:12:12 that need to be divided to make good quality and reasonable sized houses for say three or four families rather than just one family no more second homes and where second homes are in areas where other 00:12:25 people need to live they are no longer allowed to exist so no more second homes
for: staying within 1.5 Deg C - elites - lifestyle changes - property and building
example:
reference
The remaining global carbon budget for a 50% chance of holding the 1.5°C line is down to crumbs, adding up to a meagre 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 6-7 years of global emissions at the current pace. This gives us no choice, but to have all countries, businesses, citizens across the entire world working collectively and unified to solve the planetary crisis.
these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
highlight
question
the series really is a is a proposal for an rd r d program aimed at as new de novo development of new societal systems 00:45:54 and it's also a way to context and a way to think about what transformation might mean so uh it is it is a long-term project you know like a 50-year 00:46:07 project this isn't we're not it would be dangerous to change society radically overnight
In this first part of a two-part article on the relevance of 1.5°C, we unpick the policy gulf that exists between the Paris Agreement climate goals and our real-world emissions trajectory. Part two, forthcoming, will ask whether it is still tenable to claim that 1.5°C is in any meaningful sense ‘alive’.
Part One of two-part article - on the relevance of 1.5°C, - unpack the policy gulf that exists between - the Paris Agreement climate goals and - real-world emissions trajectory. - Part one challenges - the techno-optimistic position, - embodied by international leaders and the COP process - as being wilfully ignorant of reality.
Part two, forthcoming - question - is still tenable to claim that 1.5°C is in any meaningful sense ‘alive’. - Question recent suggestions that, - because a 50% chance has all but slipped beyond reach, - 1.5°C is now effectively dead in the water. - Exploration of the dangers of disregarding societal transformations - that could yet deliver an outside chance of 1.5°C.
subtitle: why most climate scientists can’t tell the truth (in public) Author: Jackson Damien
This is a good article written from a psychotherapist's perspective,
HOW CAN CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALLOW THEMSELVES TO TELL THE TRUTH?
The long-term consequences of Russia’s war are less clear. But experts are concerned it may also lock in more future fossil fuel dependence as places like Europe search for replacements for Russian fuel.
Most of them are, in general, moving in the right direction. They just aren’t aggressive enough yet to be consistent with the kind of transformative social change required to achieve the 1.5 C target.
We conclude that meeting the1.5°C goal is not plausible, although it is not impos-sible. The future scope and pace of social transfor-mations toward climate action would be crucial forattaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals
1.5 degrees Celsius is the safe boundary this aligns with the intergovernmental panel on climate change with one difference we emphasize that this is a physical limit push it beyond that point 00:05:23 and we risk permanent damage on societies and the world economy
!- first boundary : 1.5 deg C is a physical boundary - we cannot it it we want to retain a planet safe for human civilization - “ If the world breaches 1.5C, we are likely to trigger at least five tipping points, including the irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet and loss of the world’s tropical coral reef systems. This will be devastating for future generations. It will literally change the world, and yet every month we use 1% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5ºC.” From earth commission website: https://earthcommission.org/news/earth-commission-news/pioneering-science-reveals-set-of-earth-system-boundaries-that-can-secure-a-safe-and-just-planet-for-all/
within the next decade we are at risk of pushing ourselves outside of the safe 00:10:15 boundary of 1.5 degrees Celsius
!- 1.5 deg C boundary : at risk of exceeding in the next decade
so let's take the headline budgets and let's adjust them to today November 00:13:16 2022. so these are the the two probabilities that we're using um that's the budget that we have left for two degrees Centigrade that's the budget we've got for 1.5 and these are the years you have 00:13:29 so you know 1.5 nine and a half years of current emissions if the current emissions stayed static we'd have nine and a half years oh a bit worrying um that's about half a percent a bit 00:13:43 under half a percent every month for two degrees centigrade and one percent so every month we're using one percent of the 50 50 chance of 1.5 degrees Centigrade which is not anyway a safe 00:13:54 threshold every month one percent of the budget
!- key takeaway : time remaining to decarbonize to 1.5 Deg C limit - 9.5 years remaining referenced to Nov 2022 - consuming roughly 1% of remaining 380 Gigaton budget every month, or about 11 % every year.
novel method developed within the MAQC-III project utilizing the expression distributions, corrected for noise and batch effects, and assisted by random resampling, to compute DEG scores related to the Wilcoxon U test (Magic, see Additional file 1: Supplementary Note 2)