for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit?

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

Der neue Earth Report stellt fest, dass sich nur durch eine schnelle Reduzierung der Nachfrage der reichsten 15% der Weltbevölkerung gerechte und sichere Lebensbedingungen für die gesamte Menschheit im Jahr 2050 ermöglichen lassen. Der von einer Kommission prominenter Experten erstellte und von der Medizinzeitschrift Lancet publzierte Bericht beschäftigt sich mit bisher unterschätzten Folgen der Überschreitung der planeraren Grenzen. Gerechtigkeit z.B durch Besteuerung der Reichen sei eine entscheidende Voraussetzung der globalen Sicherheit https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/consumerism-and-the-climate-crisis-threaten-equitable-future-for-humanity-report-says

Earth Report: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext

Die durchschnittliche Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane erreicht Anfang April mit 21,1° einen neuen Höchstwert. Die Temperaturen sind seit 1980 nahezu linear gestiegen. In diesem Jahr dürften sie durch das El Niño-Phänomen noch weiter ansteigen, sodass u.a. mehr marine Hitzewellen zu befürchten sind. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/08/headed-off-the-charts-worlds-ocean-surface-temperature-hits-record-high

Seit Ende Juni wird im Ozean vor der nordaustralischen Küste eine marine Hitzewelle festgestellt. Sie betrifft etwas eine Million Quadratkilometer. Negative Auswirkungen auf das Great Barrier Reef und auf die Fischpopulationen werden befürchtet. Das Ereignis bestätig den Trend zu immer mehr und immer längeren Hitzewellen in den Gewässern um Australien. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/22/marine-heatwave-in-north-east-queensland-sets-off-alarm-over-health-of-great-barrier-reef

Die Earth Commission hat ein neues Konzept für Indikatoren der globalen Gesundheit entwickelt, dass sowohl die planetaren Belastungsgrenzen wie nachhaltige Entwicklung berücksichtigt. Bei sieben von acht dieser Indikatoren stellt die Kommission fest, dass die Grenze zu einer Krisensituation überschritten ist. Die Kommission wurde von führenden Forschungsinstituten zum Erdsystem und der Ökologie des Planeten gebildet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-health-failing-in-seven-out-of-eight-key-measures-say-scientists-earth-commission

John Bye [@_johnbye]. (2021, October 6). The new covid sceptic All Party Parliamentary Group on Pandemic Response and Recovery is backed by Gupta and Heneghan’s Collateral Global to the tune of over £30,000. £5,000 in financial benefits plus £25,501—£27,000 benefits in kind (CG is acting as their secretariat). Https://t.co/qll20Sg9aA [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1445867760819396608