On 2015 Feb 25, Oliver Gillie commented:
There is a serious flaw in the scientific reasoning of Autier et al 1,2. A negative result in a clinical trial of a vitamin in adult disease does not prove that the vitamin cannot have caused the disease. A vitamin deficiency may have occurred earlier in life causing irreversible metabolic damage.
Title: Clinical trials, causation and type 2 error. By Oliver Gillie PhD Health Research Forum, 68 Whitehall Park, London N19 3TN Tel: ++44 20 7561 9677
I have pointed out Autier’s mistake which may be classified as a “type 2 statistical error” 2. Regrettably The Lancet (diabetes and endocrinology) has refused to publish a correction even though the error may be seen as one of editing as much as of original research.
Autier et al point out that raising the blood level of 25(OH)D (the standard reference measure of vitamin D) with a vitamin D supplement in clinical trials has not generally been found to modify the occurrence or clinical course of diseases associated with low D in observational studies. And they conclude: “Hence, associations between 25(OH)D and health disorders reported by investigators of observational studies are not causal.” 1
Autier is even more forthright in a Lancet press release where he is quoted as saying: "If the health benefits of high vitamin D concentrations shown by data from observational studies are not reproduced in randomised trials (the gold standard method for assessing a causal relation between an exposure and an outcome) then the relation between vitamin D status and disorders are probably the result of confounding or physiological events involved in these disorders… What this discrepancy suggests is that decreases in vitamin D levels are a marker of deteriorating health." 3
However, Autier et al have misunderstood the literature on trials and causation. They reference Byar et al.4 as referring to RCTs as a “gold standard” in establishing causation. However Byar et al. do not use the term “gold standard” and only consider causation very briefly. Causation may be proved in a clinical trial when supplementation succeeds in correcting a defect, but not when it fails to do so. A null result may be obtained simply because the trial took place too long after an irreversible insult occurring at a much earlier time.
A “type 2 error” mistakenly accepts the null hypothesis, when an alternative hypothesis is or could be the true state of nature. That is: Autier et al find no significant difference between treated and untreated subjects in adult trials of vitamin D supplements and use this finding to support a null hypothesis. In doing so they wrongly rule out an alternative hypothesis that treatment at an earlier stage, e.g. during growth and development, might be effective. Much more extensive trials in all age groups and in pregnancy are required before a null conclusion could be safely reached.
Rickets is the classical example of a disease which may be cured in early life but not in adulthood.5 It causes alteration of normal bone formation and deformation of limbs which may be corrected in childhood by supplementation with vitamin D. If however the deformations, whether gross or minor, are not corrected by vitamin D while the bones are growing, the bones become set in a pathological form that cannot be corrected by later supplementation.
Cardiac structure and some cardiac diseases such as hypertension may be associated causally with low 25(OH)D levels. The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging has found that 25(OH)D levels are positively correlated with left ventricle wall thickness and there is a relationship between 25(OH)D and left-ventricle concentric remodelling.6 Hypertension in this study was also linked to left ventricle hypertrophy and low 25(OH)D. Experiments with young rats show that deprivation of vitamin D causes specific cardiac abnormalities similar to those found in the Baltimore study: cardiac hypertrophy, left-chamber alterations and systolic dysfunction, which follow on from cardiac inflammation, fibrosis and apoptosis.6 This strongly suggests that the association of low 25(OH)D with cardiac pathology is the result of lifelong low vitamin D levels which caused heart abnormalities during early growth. These observations can reasonably be regarded as proof that heart anatomy, and diseases arising from pathological changes in heart anatomy, can be caused by early vitamin D deficiency.
However, if we follow the reasoning of Autier et al. failure of vitamin D to induce beneficial heart remodeling in adults with abnormal heart anatomy would lead us to misleading conclusions i.e. that low vitamin D associated with abnormal heart anatomy in the Baltimore study is the result of reverse causation.
Autoimmune and other diseases are associated in significantly elevated rates with hospital admission for vitamin D deficiency, osteomalacia and rickets.8 Failure in determination of the immune system early in life by escape of T cells from thymic deletion could explain this common association of low vitamin D with autoimmune disease. Vitamin D is well known to be involved in immune processes.9
Many of the molecular mechanisms involving vitamin D are well known and provide a substantial basis for further exploration with clinical trials.9 However clinical trials of vitamin D must be conducted bearing in mind the additional difficulties presented when testing a nutrient rather than a drug.10 It is very difficult and enormously expensive to undertake clinical trials which continue for 20 or 30 years. Indeed it may not be possible. Other approaches are therefore required such as the animal experiments which complement the Baltimore study.
Further examples showing how vitamin D deficiency may cause disease at various stages of life are given in an article2 by the author together with examples of the serious harms which may ensue from literal or dogmatic adherence to policy advice provided by Autier and colleagues. Conflicts of interest: I have no conflicts of interest.
References 1. Autier PBM, Boniol M, Pizot C & Mullie P (2013) Vitamin D status and ill health: a systematic review. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2, 76–89. 2. Gillie O. Controlled trials of vitamin D, causality and type 2 statistical error. Public Health Nutrition 2014. 3. Anon. (2013) Further doubt cast on benefit of vitamin D supplementation for disease prevention. Press release promoting Autier et al. (2013); available at : http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-12/l-fdc120313.php 4. Byar DP, Simon RM, Friedewald WT et al. (1976) Randomized clinical trials. Perspectives on some recent ideas. N Engl J Med 95, 74–80. 5. Holick MF (2006) Resurrection of vitamin D deficiency and rickets. J Clin Invest 116, 2062–2072. 6. Ameri P, Canepa M, Milaneschi Y et al. (2013) Relationship between vitamin D status and left ventricular geometry in a healthy population: results from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. J Intern Med 273, 253–262. 7. Assalin HB, Rafacho BP, dos Santos PP et al. (2013) Impact of the length of vitamin D deficiency on cardiac remodeling. Circ Heart Fail 6, 809–816. 8. Ramagopalan SV, Maugeri NJ, Handunnetthi L et al. (2013) Hospital admissions for vitamin D related conditions and subsequent immune-mediated disease: record-linkage studies. BMC Med 11, 171. 9. Pludowski P, Holick MF, Pilz S et al. Vitamin D effects on mitochondrial health, immunity, autoimmunity, cardiovascular disease, cancer, fertility, pregnancy, dementia and mortality – a review of recent evidence. Autoimmune Rev 2013; 12: 976-89 10. Grant WB. Using findings from observational studies to guide vitamin D randomized controlled trials. J Int Med. Published online: 5 May 2014 DOI: 10.1111/joim.12260
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