10.31234/osf.io/xcykz

Errors are an inevitable consequence of human fallibility and researchers are no exception. Most researchers can recall major frustrations or serious time delays due to human errors while collecting, analyzing, or reporting data. The present study is an exploration of mistakes made during the data management process in psychological research. We surveyed 464 researchers regarding the type, frequency, seriousness, and outcome of mistakes that have occurred in their research team during the last 5 years. The majority of respondents suggested that mistakes occurred with very low or low frequency. Most respondents reported that the most frequent mistakes led to insignificant or minor consequences, such as time loss or frustration. The most serious mistakes caused insignificant or minor consequences for about a third of respondents, moderate consequences for almost half of respondents, and major or extreme consequences for about one-fifth of respondents. The most frequently reported types of mistakes were ‘ambiguous naming/defining of data’, ‘incorrect data processing/analysis’, and ‘version control error’. Most mistakes were reportedly due to poor project planning or management and/or personal issues (physical or cognitive constraints). These initial exploratory findings lay the groundwork for a systematic investigation of human fallibility in research data management and the development of solutions that may reduce errors and mitigate their impact.

The role of human fallibility in psychological research: A survey of mistakes in data management

10.31234/osf.io/es3rd

Millions of people are mourning the death of a loved to COVID-19. According to previous studies, the circumstances of coronavirus disease-related deaths may lead to dysfunctional grief. The purpose of this study was to introduce the Polish adaptation of the Pandemic Grief Scale (PGS) as well as to assess the relationship between dysfunctional grief due to a COVID-19 death, resilience and perceived social support. The adaptation was carried out on a general population sample of 286 individuals aged 18–54 years, with the evaluation being performed on a group comprising 214 people aged 18–78 years, who lost a loved one during the pandemic. The Polish version of PGS revealed a single-factor structure with strong internal consistency (α = 0.89). The PGS scores were associated with measures of complicated grief (Inventory of Complicated Grief), depression (Kutcher Adolescent Depression Scale) and lower resilience (Resilience Scale 14), which confirmed the scale’s convergent validity. No relation between PGS scores and health behaviors (Inventory of Health Behaviors) was observed, which confirmed the scale’s discriminant validity. The results of the bootstrapping technique revealed that resilience mediates the relationship between perceived social support (Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support) and dysfunctional grief (total mediation). The results of this study suggest the need for practitioners to focus on resilience-enhancing interventions and perceived social support in order to improve mental health in people who lost their loved ones during the new coronavirus pandemic.

Pandemic Grief in Poland: Adaptation of a Measure and its relationship with Social Support and Resilience

10.31234/osf.io/gdzue

Psychological science is at an inflection point: The COVID-19 pandemic has already begun to exacerbate inequalities that stem from our historically closed and exclusive culture. Meanwhile, reform efforts to change the future of our science are too narrow in focus to fully succeed. In this paper, we call on psychological scientists—focusing specifically on those who use quantitative methods in the United States as one context in which such a conversation can begin—to reimagine our discipline as fundamentally open and inclusive. First, we discuss who our discipline was designed to serve and how this history produced the inequitable reward and support systems we see today. Second, we highlight how current institutional responses to address worsening inequalities are inadequate, as well as how our disciplinary perspective may both help and hinder our ability to craft effective solutions. Third, we take a hard look in the mirror at the disconnect between what we ostensibly value as a field and what we actually practice. Fourth and finally, we lead readers through a roadmap for reimagining psychological science in whatever roles and spaces they occupy, from an informal discussion group in a department to a formal strategic planning retreat at a scientific society.

The Pandemic as a Portal: Reimagining Psychological Science as Truly Open and Inclusive

10.31234/osf.io/8me7q

Differences in political ideology are increasingly appearing as an impediment to successful bipartisan communication from local leadership. For example, recent empirical findings have shown that conservatives are less likely to adhere to COVID-19 health directives. This behavior is in direct contradiction to past research which indicates that conservatives are more rule abiding, prefer to avoid loss, and are more prevention-motivated than liberals. We reconcile this disconnect between recent empirical findings and past research by using insights gathered from press releases, millions of tweets, and mobility data capturing local movement in retail, grocery, workplace, parks, and transit domains during COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders. We find that conservatives adhere to health directives when they express more fear of the virus. In order to better understand this phenomenon, we analyze both official and citizen communications and find that press releases from local and federal government, along with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, lead to an increase in expressions of fear on Twitter.

Scared into Action: How Partisanship and Fear are Associated with Reactions to Public Health Directives

Misinformation on COVID-19 is so pervasive that even some patients dying from the disease still say it’s a hoax. In March 2020, nearly 30% of U.S. adults believed the Chinese government created the coronavirus as a bioweapon (Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 263, 2020) and in June, a quarter believed the outbreak was intentionally planned by people in power (Pew Research Center, 2020).

Controlling the spread of misinformation

10.31234/osf.io/u9pe3

Frankfurt defined persuasive communication that has no regard for truth, knowledge, or evidence as bullshit. Although there has been a lot of psychological research on pseudo-profound bullshit, no study examined this type of communication in politics. In the present research, we operationalize political bullshit receptivity as endorsing vague political statements, slogans, and political bullshit programs. We investigated the relationship of these three measures with pseudo-profound bullshit, ideology (political ideology, support for neoliberalism), populism, and voting behavior. Three pre-registered studies in different cultural settings (the United States, Serbia, The Netherlands; total N = 534) yielded medium to high intercorrelations between political bullshit measures and pseudo-profound bullshit, and good construct validity (hypothesized one-factor solution). A Bayesian meta-analysis showed that all political bullshit measures positively correlated with support for the free market, while only some positively correlated with social (political statements and programs) and economic conservatism (programs), and populism (programs). In the U.S., higher receptivity to political bullshit was associated with a higher probability that one voted for Trump (vs Clinton) in the past and higher intentions to vote for Trump (vs Biden and Sanders). In the Netherlands, higher receptivity to political bullshit predicted the intention to vote for the conservative-liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy. Exploratory analyses on merged datasets showed that higher receptivity to political bullshit was associated with a higher probability to vote for right-wing candidates/parties and lower probability for the left-wing ones. Overall, political bullshit endorsement showed good validity, opening avenues for research in political communication, especially when this communication is broad and meaningless.

Political bullshit receptivity and its correlates: a cross-cultural validation of the concept

In precision medicine, a common question for researchers is whether patients can be classified with others who have similar risks and treatment responses. Such groupings can assist in predicting risk and matching patients with appropriate treatment strategies. The challenge is that it is often not easy to identify meaningful clusters of people with the observable data.

10.1001/jama.2020.2278

Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Hidden Clinical Phenotypes

New Covid-19 infections are accelerating, portending a deadly fall and winter

10 Signs the Pandemic Is About to Get Much Worse

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly across the globe, causing epidemics that range from quickly controlled local outbreaks (such as New Zealand) to large ongoing epidemics infecting millions (such as the United States). A tremendous volume of scientific literature has followed, as has vigorous debate about poorly understood facets of the disease, including the relative importance of various routes of transmission, the roles of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections, and the susceptibility and transmissibility of specific age groups. This discussion may create the impression that our understanding of transmission is frequently overturned. Although our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is constantly deepening in important ways, the fundamental engines that drive the pandemic are well established and provide a framework for interpreting this new information.

10.1126/science.abd8755

The engines of SARS-CoV-2 spread

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by tens of millions of SARS-CoV-2 infections world-wide, has resulted in considerable levels of mortality and morbidity. The United States has been hit particularly hard having 20 percent of the world’s infections but only 4 percent of the world population. Unfortunately, significant levels of misunderstanding exist about the severity of the disease and its lethality. As COVID-19 disproportionally impacts elderly populations, the false impression that the impact on society of these deaths is minimal may be conveyed by some because elderly individuals are closer to a natural death. To assess the impact of COVID-19 in the US, I have performed calculations of person-years of life lost as a result of 194,000 premature deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 infection as of early October, 2020. By combining actuarial data on life expectancy and the distribution of COVID-19 associated deaths we estimate that over 2,500,000 person-years of life have been lost so far in the pandemic in the US alone, averaging over 13.25 years per person with differences noted between males and females. Importantly, nearly half of the potential years of life lost occur in non-elderly populations. Issues impacting refinement of these models and the additional morbidity caused by COVID-19 beyond lethality are discussed.

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.18.20214783

2.5 Million Person-Years of Life Have Been Lost Due to COVID-19 in the United States

Objective To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults.Design Population based cohort study.Setting and participants QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020.Main outcome measures The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period.Results 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R2); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell’s C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19.Conclusion The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3731

Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study

Our cities have been the centers of momentous change over the last seven months. From the global pandemic to mass demonstrations over racial injustice, cities have been transformed. Public space is taking on a significant role in our society as a place to demand justice, while public space also raises serious concerns about public health.

The Importance Of Public Space Under The Pandemic And Protests

The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has seen a deluge of clinical studies, with hundreds registered on clinicaltrials.gov. But a palpable sense of urgency and a lingering concern that “in critical situations, large randomized controlled trials are not always feasible or ethical” (1) perpetuate the perception that, when it comes to the rigors of science, crisis situations demand exceptions to high standards for quality

10.1126/science.abc1731

Against pandemic research exceptionalism

The Covid Economy Carves Deep Divide Between Haves and Have-Nots

A two-track recovery is emerging from the country’s pandemic-driven economic contraction. Some workers, companies and regions show signs of coming out fine or even stronger. The rest are mired in a deep decline with an uncertain path ahead.

10.31234/osf.io/wnryc

In this Methods Showcase, we outline a workflow for running behavioral experiments online, with a focus on linguistic experiments. The workflow that we describe here relies on three tools: OpenSesame/ OSWeb (open source) provides a user-friendly graphical interface for developing experiments; JATOS (open source) is server software for hosting experiments; and Prolific (commercial) is a platform for recruiting participants. These three tools integrate well with each other, and together they provide a workflow that requires little technical expertise. We discuss several challenges that are associated with running online experiments, including temporal precision, the ability to implement counterbalancing, and data quality. We conclude that these problems are real but surmountable, and that in many cases online experiments are a viable alternative to laboratory-based experiments.

Conducting linguistic experiments online with OpenSesame and OSWeb

Thirty-five will arrive in February, with a total of 210 expected to enter by June; all will be required to quarantine for 14 days

New Zealand to resume taking refugees a year after Covid border closure

Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates

The scientific enterprise has great potential to benefit all aspects of society, as well as to increase our understanding of the world and how it is changing in response to our actions. The advances brought about by research are too many to enumerate; one only needs to think of our successes in identifying the causes of disease and developing appropriate treatments, or the myriad technological advances that are part of our daily lives. For research to serve its purpose of benefitting society, however, it needs to engender something that is as important as it is fragile—trust. Trust in science is essential for it to effectively inform policy and more fully benefit society.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000992

We need leaders that believe in scientific evidence

The family of seven known human coronaviruses are known for their impact on the respiratory tract, not the heart. However, the most recent coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has marked tropism for the heart and can lead to myocarditis (inflammation of the heart), necrosis of its cells, mimicking of a heart attack, arrhythmias, and acute or protracted heart failure (muscle dysfunction)

COVID-19 can affect the heart

10.31234/osf.io/xpzs3

Face masks became the symbol of the global fight against the coronavirus. While face masks’ medical benefits are clear, little is known about their psychological consequences. Drawing on theories of the social functions of emotions and rapid trait impressions, we tested hypotheses on face masks’ effects on emotion-recognition accuracy and social judgments (perceived trustworthiness, likability, and closeness). Our preregistered study with 191 German adults revealed that face masks diminish people’s ability to accurately categorize an emotion expression and make target persons appear less close. Exploratory analyses further revealed that face masks buffered the negative effect of negative (vs. non-negative) emotion expressions on perceptions of trustworthiness, likability, and closeness. Associating face masks with the coronavirus’ dangers predicted higher perceptions of closeness for masked but not for unmasked faces. By highlighting face masks’ effects on social functioning, our findings inform policymaking and point at contexts where alternatives to face masks are needed.

Face masks reduce emotion-recognition accuracy and perceived closeness

A lot of conspiracy theories and fake news surrounding the pandemic are doing the rounds. Among the disinformation is a suggestion that COVID-19 vaccines might cause infertility in women.

COVID-19 vaccines do not make women infertile

As Vaccine Rollout Expands, Black Americans Still Left Behind

Black Americans are still receiving covid vaccinations at dramatically lower rates than white Americans even as the chaotic rollout reaches more people, according to a new KHN analysis.

10.31234/osf.io/hmsj8

Storm Clouds and Silver Linings: Impacts of COVID-19 and Daily Emotional Health in Adolescent Girls

Objective: Changes to daily life resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic have the potential to contribute to adolescent girls’ emotional health in both positive and negative ways, but the effects of these profound changes on adolescent daily functioning are unknown. Method: We conducted a 10-day daily diary study in a sample of 93 U.S. adolescent girls (aged 12-17) enriched for temperamental risk for anxiety and depression. The study was conducted in April/May 2020 when all participants were under state-issued stay-at-home orders. Girls provided daily reports of positive and negative affect, depressive and anxious symptoms, activities, and positive and negative impacts resulting from the pandemic. Results: Girls reported engaging in many activities that may contribute to well-being. Positive impacts associated with improved same-day emotional health included spending more time with family, more time to relax, and reduced pressure from school and activities. Negative impacts associated with poorer same-day emotional health included problems with online schooling, lack of space/privacy, lack of a regular schedule, and family conflict. Conclusion: Findings suggest that, when safe and feasible, families and communities should prioritize in-person or quality online schooling, resources and space for learning, promoting daily routines, and spending time with their teens while reducing conflict. The COVID-19 pandemic also appears to have offered many adolescent girls a respite from the chronic stress associated with modern teen life, with time to relax and engage in creative and healthy pursuits showing benefits for daily emotional health, which should be considered following the return to normal life.

Gerardo Gutierrez, 70, died from complications related to COVID-19. A lawsuit filed by his family says he contracted the virus while working at a Publix deli counter during a period the grocer forbid workers from using masks. [ The Gutierrez family ]

Judge denies Publix’s request to dismiss COVID-19 wrongful death case

The Government Communication Service (GCS) has published a new piece of guidance titled ‘The principles of behaviour change communications’.

GCS launches new behaviour change guide