- Nov 2022
Contents 1 Overview 2 Reasons for failure 2.1 Overconfidence and complacency 2.1.1 Natural tendency 2.1.2 The illusion of control 2.1.3 Anchoring 2.1.4 Competitor neglect 2.1.5 Organisational pressure 2.1.6 Machiavelli factor 2.2 Dogma, ritual and specialisation 2.2.1 Frames become blinders 2.2.2 Processes become routines 2.2.3 Resources become millstones 2.2.4 Relationships become shackles 2.2.5 Values becomes dogmas 3 The paradox of information systems 3.1 The irrationality of rationality 3.2 How computers can be destructive 3.3 Recommendations for practice 4 Case studies 4.1 Fresh & Easy 4.2 Firestone Tire and Rubber Company 4.3 Laura Ashley 4.4 Xerox 5 See also 6 References
Wiki table of contents of the Icarus paradox
- Icarus paradox
- Greek mythology
- cognitive biases
- illusion of control
- processes become routines
- resources become millstones
- relationships become shackles
- frames become blinders
- Danny Miller
- value becomes dogmas
Amos Tversky's famous "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences".
- Thomas Gilovich
- research article
- Robert Vallone
- to read
- Amos Tversky
- cognitive psychology
- hot hand
URLwexler.free.fr/library/files/gilovich (1985) the hot hand in basketball. on the misperception of random sequences.pdf
- Jun 2022
Before I get started: I'm really excited to be here to just actually watch what's going to happen, from here. So with that said, we're going to start with: What is one of our greatest needs, one of our greatest needs for our brain? And instead of telling you, I want to show you. In fact, I want you to feel it. There's a lot I want you to feel in the next 14 minutes. So, if we could all stand up. 00:00:39 We're all going to conduct a piece of Strauss together. Alright? And you all know it. Alright. Are you ready? Audience: Yeah! Beau Lotto: Alright. Ready, one, two, three! It's just the end. (Music: Richard Strauss "Also Sprach Zarathustra") Right? You know where it's going. (Music) 00:01:13 Oh, it's coming! (Music stops abruptly) Oh! (Laughter) Right? Collective coitus interruptus. OK, you can all sit down. (Laughter) We have a fundamental need for closure. (Laughter) We love closure. (Applause) I was told the story that Mozart, just before he'd go to bed, 00:01:45 he'd go to the piano and go, "da-da-da-da-da." His father, who was already in bed, would think, "Argh." He'd have to get up and hit the final note to the chord before he could go back to sleep. (Laughter) So the need for closure leads us to thinking about: What is our greatest fear? Think -- what is our greatest fear growing up, even now? And it's the fear of the dark. 00:02:15 We hate uncertainty. We hate to not know. We hate it. Think about horror films. Horror films are always shot in the dark, in the forest, at night, in the depths of the sea, the blackness of space. And the reason is because dying was easy during evolution. If you weren't sure that was a predator, it was too late. Your brain evolved to predict. 00:02:42 And if you couldn't predict, you died. And the way your brain predicts is by encoding the bias and assumptions that were useful in the past. But those assumptions just don't stay inside your brain. You project them out into the world.
A good BEing journey for anticipation. We wait for closure, anticipate what is next based on previous experiences.
The sand artwork performed by the artist in the background is also a demonstration of anticipation and of symbolic representation - the ubiquity of the symbolosphere.
the human brain is an energy hog like and you can learn a lot about a lot of our uh biases and problems from the kinds of shortcuts that the brain takes 00:06:41 in the name of energy conservation well it looks like estimating group consensus is one of those shortcuts right because all it's equal your brain tends to assume that the loudest voices repeated 00:06:53 the most are the majority and and i think about that i think wow that doesn't seem like a good a good shortcut at all but i guess if you go back and f through evolution and when most of our time was spent and like 00:07:05 seeing like the dumbar number kind of you know groups it probably it obviously had to work well enough right to just be here with us but now when you think about with social media 00:07:18 and these massive imaginary communities like nations where you're never going to meet more than a tiny tiny percentage of the people in your group that shortcut becomes problematic um and 00:07:31 we can talk about it like i mean social media in particular makes it very very easy to distort perceived group consensus
This is the key problem that makes current social media dangerous, it can be easily gamed due to this evolutionary shortcut of the brain, the fast system of biases aka Daniel Kahneman's research.
- May 2022
Humanity’s COG is assessed as its deep frames, prevalent and dominant worldviews that influence governance decisions across the public and private sectors (figure 3). Simply put, CEC presents a new type of threat—a Frankenstein-like killing and destruction phenomenon—that humanity struggles to conceive or perceive.
It would benefit the description by including the umwelt in the perception lens and cognitive biases and cognitive constructions in the cognitive lens.
- Mar 2022
what i don't really do 00:48:10 is having a checklist like going through possible biases i don't feel that's very helpful i think it's important to keep them in mind but i think it's more about detecting okay 00:48:25 what kind of question is [Music] the author trying to answer
Understanding the sorts of questions an author is looking at and attempting to answer are often more important than going through a checklist of biases which may come into play.
give the text your reading the opportunity to tell you something new and something 00:49:02 you have not expected so i'm worried a little bit of having fixed [Music] categories to look through 00:49:16 text because it might turn every text into something that is um already fitting your categories instead of expanding them 00:49:26 or adding to them
Coming to a text with too rigid a set of questions or preconceived categories may cause you to be blinded by what you expect to get out of it rather than allowing the text to surprise you with new and interesting insights you may not have anticipated.
- Nov 2021
It is difficult to know what to believe when human cognition can easily misrepresent reality.
- Oct 2020
IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13745/.
- longitudinal study
- mask wearing
- socioeconomic characteristics
- social distancing
- United States
- demographic characteristics
- risk perception biases
- cognitive biases
- social preferences
- face mask
- Sep 2018
most commonly creep into the decision-making process.
I think, that we need to understand, how do our brains work, because it is part of us, which creates ourselves. There is the list of 7 most commonly creep cognitive biases into the decision- making process. " Progress bias
What it is: Where we give more credit to our good actions even if they’re outweighed by the bad.
What it is: Where we’re more likely to believe information that confirms opinions we already have.
What it is: Where we only pay attention to people or things that succeeded and ignore all those who didn’t.
What it is: When confidence and experience are mismatched.
What it is: Where we place much higher value on things we’ve personally worked on.
What it is: Where we underestimate the time we need to complete a task.
What it is: Where we believe that if something can be recalled it must be important. "