26 Matching Annotations
  1. Aug 2020
    1. billionaire investor, George Soros, called the stock market a bubble. “Investors are in a bubble fueled by Fed liquidity,” he says and that’s why he “no longer participates.”

      This is what I was thinking: the stock market is fed by liquidity by the government. I am not sure how to think about it in the long run.

      If I keep money in the stock market, the government keeps pumping money, inflation raises, then my money is just constantly devalued. I really don't know

  2. Apr 2020
    1. This is a perfect environment for gold to take center stage. Fanatical debasement of moneyby all of the world’s central banks, super-low interest rates and gold mine operation and extractionissues(to a large extent related to the pandemic)should create a fertile ground for this most basic of all money and storesof value to reach its fair value, which we believe is literally multiples ofits current price. In recent months,goldhas gone up in price to some degree, but we think that it is one of the most undervalued investable assetsexisting today. There is nothing else that has its historical and fundamental characteristics,and we think that itis only beginning its inexorable, but 11impossibletotimeand placeboundaries around, uptrend.The fact that it is so under-ownedby institutional investors is astonishing to us in light of the obsessively inflationary policies being pursued by central banks around the world

      Elliot Management April 16 2020

    2. The potential opportunity setis primarily in credit. Of course,equities thathave fallen 20%, 30%or50% in a very short time can provide substantial upside, but in periodslike this one, we prefer the additional downside protection of carefullyresearched debt. The Holy Grail(which presented itself in size in 2008)is to have credit positions in which we have so much confidence andwhich have so muchconvexity (asymmetric return profiles; much more upside than downside) that hedges are either not needed or can be relatively small.A great example wasauto finance unsecured debt in 2008, which at the bottom was trading at levels thatanticipated many more defaults than at any time in history.Such credit positions fell in priceto many points below our “scientificallyderived”bedrock-bottom prices, but we had a lot of confidence in the ultimate repayment of the debt

      Elliot Management April 16 2020

      • also Buffett's GS/BOA preferred stock deals
  3. www.lionscrestadvisors.com www.lionscrestadvisors.com
    1. Modern Portfolio Theory tells us to mitigate risk through diversification, but this tends to lower CAGRs (in the name of higher Sharpe ratios); one is then forced to apply leverage to raise the CAGR back up, which just adds back a different risk by magnifying the portfolio’s sensitivity to errors in one’s spurious correlation estimates. Diversification is unfortunately not “the only free lunch in finance” that it has been made out to be. So much risk mitigation is simply about moving from concentration (or typically beta) risk to levered model risk

      So much risk mitigation is simply about moving from concentration (or typically beta) risk to levered model risk

    1. Subscription credit lines— a tactic to inflate IRR

      Over the past two years, however, the accuracy of IRR has been called into question thanks to the increasing ubiquity of subscription lines of credit. These loans, also known as commitment facilities, have long been used in the private capital industry to finance transactions before investor capital is called in, easing limited partners’ liquidity needs and making it possible for general partners to jump on deals more quickly. But lately, fund managers have been using subscription credit lines differently — and with greater frequency.

      According to alternatives data provider Preqin, the use of commitment facilities among private equity funds has more than tripled in the past decade, with 47 percent of funds launched in 2010 and later having utilized the financing tool, compared with 13 percent of funds launched before 2010. And it’s not just that more private fund managers are taking out these loans. Preqin also reported that these once short-term instruments are now being used to delay capital calls longer — which investors, researchers, and other industry experts claim is leading to artificially inflated IRRs.

      Two recent papers — one from a pair of Carnegie Mellon business school professors, one co-authored by two German researchers with a BlackRock private equity director — have explored the effects of subscription credit lines on IRRs and arrived at the conclusion that the loans have meaningfully improved IRRs without increasing the actual amount of money that investors take home.

      The German researchers, Pierre Schillinger and Reiner Braun of the Technical University of Munich, worked with BlackRock Private Equity Partners director Jeroen Cornel to simulate how real buyout funds would perform if they had hypothetically used subscription credit lines. Simulating commitment facility use for less than six months resulted in only a 47-basis-point increase in IRR on average, or a 20bp improvement at the median. But increasing the time frame of the loan to a year led to an average IRR bump of 120 basis points — a median increase of 57bp.

      “If used extensively, [subscription credit lines] can indeed lift fund returns substantially,” they concluded.

  4. Apr 2019
    1. The creation of a successful status game is so mysterious that it often smacks of alchemy. For that reason, entrepreneurs who succeed in this space are thought of us a sort of shaman, perhaps because most investors are middle-aged white men who are already so high status they haven't the first idea why people would seek virtual status
  5. Jan 2019
  6. Jul 2018
    1. Die Finanzierung der Gesellschaft soll maßgeblich aus Steuereinnahmen und Mauterträgen erfolgen. Die Aufnahme von Krediten durch die Autobahngesellschaft hingegen soll im Gegensatz zu anderen staatlichen Unternehmen grundsätzlich überhaupt nicht möglich sein. Dagegen können sich für spezielle Projekte auch weiterhin private Investoren an einzelnen Streckenabschnitten oder Großbauprojekten finanziell beteiligen, was bisher auch schon vereinzelt in der Vergangenheit geschehen ist. Diese private Finanzierung im Rahmen von sogenannten öffentlich-privaten Partnerschaften (kurz ÖPP) ist damit die einzige Möglichkeit für eine sogenannte Fremdfinanzierung der Autobahngesellschaft. Hierbei soll allerdings sicherheitshalber eine Begrenzung auf Straßenlängen von maximal 100 Kilometer Länge erfolgen, um eine schleichende Unterwanderung des Alleineigentums des Bundes am gesamten Autobahnnetz zu verhindern.
  7. Jun 2018
    1. GPIF has selected FTSE Blossom Japan index, a new index compiled by FTSE Russell for the Japanese pension fund, as well as MSCI Japan ESG Select Leaders index and MSCI Japan Empowering Women index.
    1. The outperformance of ESG strategies is beyond doubt. In emerging markets, the trend is particularly pronounced: the MSCI Emerging Markets Leaders index, which includes 417 companies that score highly on ESG, has been outstripping the dominant MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark since the 2008-09 financial crisis, with the outperformance gap reaching a record in June this year.
    2. The BYD investment story is a small part of a much bigger trend. Investors are finding that if they are good to the planet and to people, they also end up, on average, benefiting themselves. There is mounting evidence that funds which observe environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards in their strategies tend to outperform those that don’t by a significant margin.
    1. Ethical investing and ESG, although they are related, are different concepts. Ethical funds avoid harmful sectors; ESG, a more holistic investment approach, integrates ESG principles into portfolio decisions.
  8. May 2018
    1. Qũy ETF SSIAMVNX50 do 4 thành viên sáng lập, gồm Công ty Chứng khoán Sài Gòn (SSI), Công ty chứng khoán Bảo Việt (BVSC), Công ty chứng khoán Ngân hàng Ngoại thương Việt Nam (VCBS) và Công ty chứng khoán VNDirect (VNDS). Theo bà Lê Lệ Hằng, Tổng giám đốc SSIAM, cho đến thời điểm này, nguồn vốn của quỹ ETF SSIAMVNX50  đều từ trong nước và chủ trương của Qũy cũng hướng đến dòng vốn nội địa.
    1. Trong 2 tháng đầu năm, quỹ V.N.M đã huy động được 53.37 triệu USD, quỹ ETF nội thậm chí còn "khủng" hơn khi huy động thành công gần 100 triệu USD (2.266 tỷ đồng). Dòng tiền từ các quỹ đã làm điểm tựa cho thị trường trong thời gian này. Kết thúc tháng 2/2018 chỉ số VN index tăng 13,6% lên 1121,54 điểm.
    1. hạn mức sau khi nâng lên 75 triệu đồng, theo số liệu từ Bảo hiểm Tiền gửi Việt Nam, đã đảm bảo bảo vệ được nhiều người gửi tiền nhỏ, thiếu thông tin về hoạt động ngân hàng (chiếm hơn 80% người gửi tiền)
    1. SIPC is an insurance that provides brokerage customers up to $500,000 coverage for cash and securities held by the firm (although coverage of cash is limited to $250,000).
  9. Sep 2017
    1. They don't get that individual components can compound at a lower rate, on average, than the overall portfolio or that several bankruptcies of different holdings along the way can still result in positive returns.
    2. Specifically, Vanguard has $198,712,172,000 in that particular fund as of the end of 2014, of which $89,234,130,000 consisted of unrealized gains.  If Vanguard were to experience a significant run on the fund for whatever reason - and these things have, do, and will happen - management could be forced to liquidate those positions or, at the very best, pay them out "in kind".  This is something Vanguard investors have never had to consider because as indexing has become the latest fashion, it has been able to pay redemption requests with fresh deposits a lot of times, net assets growing in the long-run.  Should that stop, it could get ugly.
    3. Final Thoughts About Investing in Index FundsWhere does that leave us?  My conclusions are fairly straightforward and, at the risk of repeating myself in sections, I'll share them with you:If your portfolio is modest, and you don't have a clue what you are doing, index funds are probably your best bet.  They are good enough for what you need and will likely save you from a lot of mistakes.  If your money is held captive in a 401(k) plan at work and you have to make allocation decisions, low-cost index funds are almost always going to be among the best choices you have at your disposal.  Seriously consider investing in them over the alternatives or, at the very least, making them a core part of your portfolio.If you are affluent or high net worth, enough to get economies of scale with your money, take advantage of certain planning and tax strategies, and have a lot of money outside of tax shelters, you are bonkers if you invest in the pooled, public index fund.  Instead, if you want to use an indexing approach, build a privately held index fund for yourself or pay someone like Goldman Sachs a meaningless handful of additional basis points to administer it for you.  There are few things nuttier than someone with millions of dollars sitting on taxable index funds when the dramatically superior alternative of a private index account is available.  In other words, take index funds for what they are: a potentially wonderful tool that can save you a lot of money and help you get a good foundation underneath you.  Once you are wealthy enough to have some real money behind you, consider bypassing the pooled structure entirely and owning the underlying components.  Beyond that, index funds are neither friend nor foe, virtuous nor evil.  They are a tool.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Use them when it suits you and is to your advantage, avoid them when they don't and aren't. Don't get emotionally attached to them or somehow be seduced by the lie that there is something magical about their structure that makes them superior to all else in the universe.If you do invest through index funds, I'd gently suggest you consider dollar cost averaging into a handful of core index funds, including an all-cap domestic and a developed market international, reinvest your dividends, ignore market fluctuations, and stay the course.  Let time do the heavy lifting for you and, if you have a long enough run and good enough luck, retirement should be more comfortable than it otherwise would have been.  There are a lot worse things you can do.
    4. All that matters is 1.) which stocks you own, 2.) how those stocks are selected, 3.) the weightings assigned to those stocks, 4.) the costs relative to the services or benefits received, and 5.) the potential tax exposure.  Maybe you can get it through an index fund, maybe you can't.  Directly owned passive portfolios are going to be a better choice for a lot of successful people.
    1. Making money from ETFs is essentially the same as making money by investing in mutual funds because they operate almost identically.
    2. How you make money from an ETF will depend on the underlying investments of that ETF over time.That is, if you own a stock ETF that focuses on high-dividend stocks, you are hoping to make money from a combination of capital gains (an increase in the price of the stocks your ETF owns) and dividends paid out by those same stocks. Likewise, if you own a bond fund ETF, you hope to make money from interest income. If you own a real estate ETF, you hope to make money from the underlying rents, capital gains on property sales, and service income generated by the apartments, hotels, office buildings, or other real estate owned by the REITs in which the ETF has made an investment.
  10. Jun 2016
    1. Australian dollar—viewed as a proxy for China's growth—spiked as much as up 1 percent against the greenback.

      China uses Aussie raw materials.

      Chinese demand for the Aussie Dollar is reflected in growth in the dollar. ↑ AUD = ↑ CHINA

  11. May 2016
    1. Stockholder's equity is the capital received from investors. So, treasury stock cannot be included as a company cannot invest in itself.

      So upon a share repurchase, both cash and equity is decreased by the same amount

  12. Dec 2015