Die Kryosphäre bricht viel schneller zusammen als bisher angenommen - vom westantarktischen Eisschild bis zum arktischen Permafrost. Die Versauernug der Ozeane hat sich beschleunigt. Zur #Cop27 ist ein umfassendes Update des Berichts zu den Kältezonen erschienen, den der Weltklimarat vor einigen Jahren publiziert hatte. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/fonte-des-glaces-elevation-du-niveau-des-mers-degel-du-permafrost-les-projections-des-scientifiques-sassombrissent-encore-plus-20221111_274JR2UJGVHUZH7EZJV7L3XYSA/?redirected=1

Ohne einzelne Länder zu nennen, hat der neue IPCC-Chef Jim Skea die Entscheidungen der brititischen und anderer Regierungen kritisiert, die Dekarboisierung zu verlangsamen und neue Öl- und Gasfelder zu genehmigen. Nicht ob, sondern wie Null-Emissionen erreicht würden, entscheide darüber, ob und wann die Erhitzung aufgehalten werden könne. Der Klimawissenschaftler Joeri Rogelj sprach von einem „abrupten Rollback“ in Großbritannien. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/02/slow-route-to-net-zero-will-worsen-global-climate-crisis-ipcc-chief-warns

for - climate crisis - IPCC - working group 3 - Oil companies delay action through fake Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies - We need to act before 2030 - CDR technologies create inaction now when we most need it - Kevin Anderson

for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - integrated assessment models - are basically economic models - with a bit of mythical technology - a bit of social science - Kevin Anderson

for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - integrated assessment models - is just about reducing emissions - inherently political - Kevin Anderson

for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - Integrated Assessment Models - Some good people here but - It's just Exxon in disguise - Kevin Anderson

for - quote - IPCC - climate models - are deeply colonial - Kevin Anderson

Die NDCs - die offiziell eingereichten Ziele der Nationalstaaten - würden bis 2030 nur zu einer Minderung der Emissionen.um 2,6% führen. Der IPCC hält mindesten 43% für nötig. Der Chef der UN-Behörde für Klimawandel, Simon Stiell, bezeichnete dieses Ergebnis bei der Vorstellung des Berichts zu den NDCs als meilenweit vom Nötigen entfernt. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000242529/cop29-uno-bericht-nationale-klimama223nahmen-sind-unzureichend

Bericht: https://unfccc.int/documents/641792

Der Guardian nennt die Stimmung der meisten von der Zeitung zu ihren Zukunfterwartungen befragten IPCC-Klimawissenschaftlerinnen düster; viele sind deprimiert. Viele der Forschenden, die die Zeitung als die am besten über die Zukunft Informierten bezeichnet, erwarten Hungersnöte, Massenmigration und Konflikte. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair

80 % der Lead- und Review-Autore:innen der letzten IPCC-Berichte, die eine Guardianumfrage beantworteten, erwarten, dass die globale Durchschnittstemperatur bis 2100 um 2,5 oder mehr Grad steigt, etwa 50% rechnen mit mindestens 3°. Die Zahl der jüngeren und weiblichen Wissenschaftleri:nnen, die erwarten, dass die Temperaturen um 3° und mehr ansteigen, ist deutlich höher als bei den über 50-Jährigen und männlichen Befragen. Knapp die Hälfte der vom Guardian angesprochenen über 800 Autor:innen hat geantwortet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature

Zum 10. Mal in Folge war im März die globale Durchschnittstemperatur höher als in allen früheren Vergleichsmonaten. Sie lag 0,1° über dem letzten Rekord und 1,68° über dem vorindustriellen Wert. Jonathan Watts geht im Guardian auf die Befürchtungen von Klimaforschenden ein, das Klimasystem könne sich bereits in einer bisher nicht vorausgesagten Weise verändert haben. Im März hat der Saudi Aramco-Chef unter Applaus von Industrie-Vertretern den Ausstieg aus Öl und Gas als Illusion bezeichnet. https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/apr/09/tenth-consecutive-monthly-heat-record-alarms-confounds-climate-scientists

Copernicus Climate Bulletin: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletins#55c9d9ab-fb45-4667-94b0-084c3423879b

• for: James Hansen 2023 paper, Global Warming in the Pipeline, claim - IPCC underestimating global warming - James Hansen

• reference

  • Hansen paper
    • https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=true
  • Mann response
    • https://michaelmann.net/content/comments-new-article-james-hansen

• for: resilient cities, living cities, IPCC - cities, future earth - cities, complexity - cities, climate change - clities, Xuemei Bai - IPCC cities report

• for: IPCC - social behavioral change impact, quote, quote - IPCC social behavioral change

• quote

  • The forthcoming 6th IPCC report includes a chapter on demand-side mitigation solutions, which estimates that
  • sociobehavioral changes (on top of changes in infra- structure or technology) have the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050.

Kurzes Portrait des neuen IPCC-Vorsitzenden Jim Skea. Skea vermeidet politische Festlegungen und legt großes Gewicht darauf, Personen, die entscheiden können, zu überzeugen. https://www.liberation.fr/portraits/jim-skea-vert-mesureur-20231022_MX4DSQEUTFAGFHYH7WWBAPASTM/

• for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - bottom-up and top-down partnership, IPCC AR6 WGIII demand side reduction and bottom-up actions
• quote
  • I hope that there will be some sort of partnership between bottom-up and top-down that will provide guidance to leaders to put the right things in place.
• author: Kevin Anderson

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • The last IPCC report, AR6, WGIII described the important role that bottom-up, societal actors can play
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Freport.ipcc.ch%2Far6wg3%2Fpdf%2FIPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_Chapter05.pdf&group=world

• for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?

• highlight

  • the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
    • current climate models
    • global carbon estimates
    • IPCC
  • the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
  • the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.

• question

  • Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?

Der Brite Jim Skea wurde zum neuen Vorsitzenden des IPCC gewählt. In einem Spiegel-Interview wiederholte er das Statement, dass das Überschreiten des 1,5°-Ziels nicht das Ende der Menschheit bedeute. Skea bezog sich auf die Aussage des IPCC, dass das 1,5° Ziel nur nach einem zeitweisen Überschreiten durch Entfernung von CO₂ aus der Atmosphäre erreicht werden kann. Er betonte wiederum, dass jedes Zehntelgrad weniger Temperaturerhöhung von enormer Relevanz ist. https://taz.de/15-Grad-Ziel-in-Klimadebatte/!5948023/

• The report claims that
  • to reach target of 50/50 chance of staying within 1.5 deg C,
  • we must reach meet zero by 2050
    • Yet, updating the IPCC’s estimate of the 1.5°C carbon budget,
      • from 2020 to 2023, and then drawing a straight line down from today’s total emissions to the point where all carbon emissions must cease, and without exceeding this budget,
    • gives a zero CO₂ date of 2040.
    • Furthermore, adding policy delays to set things up, it is more likely a date closer to mid 2030's.

Title IPCC’s conservative nature masks true scale of action needed to avert catastrophic climate change Author Kevin Anderson

Summary The influential 2023 IPCC Synthesis report for policy makers is quite misleading and can steer policy makers in the wrong, and disastrous direction.

Title IPCC’s conservative nature masks true scale of action needed to avert catastrophic climate change Author Kevin Anderson

Another unknown not yet included in IPCC report

• A good observation
  • about the cognitive dissonance of the situation

• IPCC’s 7 year review process is thorough but at the bc same time guarantees that its findings are already dangerously outdated by v the time they are released to the public.
• What might be more useful is to have current research reviewed by a global trans-disciplinary board and decisions made on monthly summaries
• Could systematic application of human assisted AI speed things up?

!- quote : from IPCC

IPCC AR6 WG III chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Freport.ipcc.ch%2Far6wg3%2Fpdf%2FIPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_Chapter05.pdf&group=world

Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation

NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.

This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.

This is consistent with the recommendations from "Ostrich or the Phoenix".IPCC latest report AR6 Ch. 5 also advocates the huge emissions reduction achievable with demand reduction.

As per IPCC AR6 WGIII, Chapter 5 outlining for the first time, the enormous mitigation potential of social aspects of mitigation - such as behavioral change - can add up to 40 percent of mitigation. And also harkening back to Donella Meadows' leverage points that point out shifts in worldviews, paradigms and value systems are the most powerful leverage points in system change.

Stop Reset Go advocates humanity builds an open source, open access praxis for Deep Humanity, understand the depths of what it means to be a living and dying human being in the context of an entwined culture. Sharing best practices and constantly crowdsourcing the universal and salient aspects of our common humanity can help rapidly transform the inner space of each human INTERbeing, which can powerfully influence outer (social) transformation.

In IPCC AR6 WGIII Parlence, middle actors can mediate a community scale change, which becomes a force multiplier for individual change. Supercharging individual change is what can lead to significant scale of impact through many and many types of mesh interventions. The scale of such mesh interventions will have a "trickle up" effect to affect and accelerate the actions of top down actors.

This would be truly empowering as the current agency of the individual at the grassroots level is ineffectual.

Stop Reset Go (SRG) s a simple but powerful meme that is designed to be used by anyone to effect transition. When we recognize that something is harmful and needs to change, SRG can be invoked as a simple rule for transition. The colors of the traffic light are used as a mnemonic aid. If there is a problem with a human process, then STOP. think of an alternative way of achieving the same goal that does not bring about the harm (RESET). When the alternative has been trialed, tested and proven to work without causing more progress traps, then find a way to scale and implement the solution (GO).

SRG therefore becomes a simple mesh intervention that can be applied at all scales and dimensions. Its iterative and recursive use can be tracked in the Indyweb and interventions can be modeled by AI assistants that can analyze for potential unintended consequences through connections outside the focus area of the designer, and not normally explored by the designers. This augers a truly circular design methodology of the lowest potential impact.

IPCC AR6 WGIII Chapter 5: demand, services and social aspects of mitigation identifies that up to 45% of mitigation can result from a demand-side socialization strategy and collective action mobilization. This gives us tremendous power of impact to mobilize people. The low hanging fruit can be identified by comprehensive, ongoing, deep, global conversations with the greatest diversity of actors with a common vision collectively searching for the social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources and scaling massively thru the Indyweb as a cosmolocal network (what's light we share, what's heavy we produce locally).

Climate scientist and realist Professor Kevin Anderson has argued for many years that demand side changes are the only solutions that can be implemented rapidly enough to peak emissions and drop emissions rapidly in the short term (next few years), buying time for reneewable energy solutions to scale globally.

This is the key idea behind mobilizing an effective global, multi-stakeholder, bottom-up response. Minor operations implies an aggregate approach that has little impact, otherwise known colloquially as "tinkering at the edge". IPCC AR6, WGIII Chapter 5 articulates this same message and for the first time, outlines that demand side system changes can play a significant role in mitigation effectiveness against the hyperthreat. It must be collectively organized individual change that scales to community scales around the globe in order to have impact, leveraging what the IPCC call "middle actors".

An effective strategy must be very time sensitive to the short time window to peak emissions so must identify all leverage points, idling resources and social tipping points available to a global bottom-up mobilization.

The middle actors are a strategic group.

This is exactly what SRG has been advocating for in its bottom-up, rapid whole system change approach.

Summary for Policymakers

1,5 Grad Grenze ist kritisch

Adaption ist extrem wichtig, aber unzureichend.

Situation ist Ergebnis unzureichender Climate Governance

Es geht im dritten Teil um Mitigation, also um die Abschwächung bzw die Verhinderung einer noch stärkeren Erhitzung.

Aussagen:

Das Maximum der Emissionen muss in den nächsten vier Jahren erreicht werden. Die Länder mit hohem Einkommen müssen ihre Emissionen besonders entschlossen senken. 10% der Verursacher sind für 36-45% der Emissionen verantwortlich. Das ist zehnmal so viel wie die ärmsten 10%, die nur für 3-5% der Emissionen verantwortlich sind.

• Ab sofort dürfen keine neuen fossilen Kraftwerke mehr entwickelt oder gebaut werden.
• Lebensstil-Veränderungen sind ein wichtiges Mittel, darunter weniger Heizung und Klimatisierung sowie pflanenbasierte Ernährung, durch die sich bis zu 50% der Emissionen der westlichen Ernährung sparen lassen.
• Es wird viel zu wenig in den Wechsel zu einer grünen Wirtschaft investiert.

Stefan Rahmstorf zu den noch zur Verfügung stehenden CO2-Budgets.

Zu den Szenarien für ein Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 1,5° Celsius in diesem Jahrhundert

via Julia Steinberger.

Report concerning the costs and victims of global warming. Via Prof Julia S 🌍🌱🌹 ClimateAction BLM FightFascism auf Twitter. Thread

IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C - Table 2.2: The assessed remaining carbon budget and its uncertainties