https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/17/un-climate-summit-host-uae-failed-report-methane-emissions

• for: futures, futures - climate change
• annotate

• for: Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C, NDC insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C

• stats: climate change - NDC

  • current NDCs
    • 45% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050
  • NDCs to meet 1.5 Deg C
    • 75% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050

• for: climate change - wartime mobilization inventory

Hitzebedingte Todesfälle bei über 65-Jährigen haben seit den 90ern um 85% zugenommen. Senior:innen sind – wie kleine Kinder – zweimal soviel Hitzewellen-Tagen ausgesetzt wie 1986-2005. Extreme Hitze führte 2022 zu Produktivitätsverlusten von ca. 863 Milliarden USD. Alle Indikatoren für öffentliche Gesundheit haben sich in den letzten 9 Jahren verschlechtert. – Die NYT stellt den 2023 Report des Lancet Countdown ausführlich dar. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/climate/climate-change-health-effects-lancet.html

Mehr zum Rreport: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%222023%20report%20of%20the%20Lancet%20Countdown%20on%20health%20and%20climate%20change%22

Kurz vor der COP28 hat das Lancet-Countdown-Team seinen jährlichen Bericht über Gesundheit und Klimawandel vorgelegt. Die globale Erhitzung habe im vergangenen Jahr für 127 Millionen mehr Menschen zu leichter bis schwerer Nahrungsmittelunsicherheit geführt. In vielen Gebieten hätte die Klimaveränderung die Ausbreitung neuer Krankheiten begünstigt. Durch die anhaltenden Investitionen in fossile Energien bewege sich die Welt in die falsche Richtung https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/14/paying-in-lives-health-of-billions-at-risk-from-global-heating-warns-report

• for: resilient cities, living cities, IPCC - cities, future earth - cities, complexity - cities, climate change - clities, Xuemei Bai - IPCC cities report

• for: big oil cover up, big oil - MIT, big Oil Ernest Moniz, methane emissions coverup, PBS - The Power of Big Oil, climate change - big oil lobby, quote - Ernest Moniz, quote Edmund Carlevale, quote - methane emissions coverup

• quote

  • Today, the U.S. is spending hundreds of millions to address the crisis of methane emissions. But as Tony Ingraffea says, this should have happened a decade ago (https://lnkd.in/eaFpkTrj) and it didn't because of a single person.
  • And none of this is in the past. Ernest Moniz is the single person in the entire world most responsible for legitimizing the hoax of #carboncapture.
  • And carbon capture is only reason that the global oil&gas cartel has been given a green light to #drilldrilldrill. -These lies matter, and they are devastating our world.
• author: Edmund Carlevale

• date: Nov 16, 2023

• reference

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAAbcNl4Lb8

• for: explainer video - system change, not climate change, Weall, Wellbeing Economy Alliance

haha, china and russia and friends are shitting all over your "scientific models".<br /> the ONLY problem is "too many humans", aka overpopulation, caused by pacifism.<br /> these "save the world" policies are collective suicide for the 95% useless eaters. byee!

In einem Brief wollen mehr als 100 britische Energieunternehmen Premierminister Rishi Sunak warnen von der aktuellen Dekarbonisierungspolitik abzugehen. Gerade erst hat ein Gutachten gezeigt, mit welchen Gefahren die zu große Abhängigkeit Großbritanniens von gaslieferungen verbunden ist. Für das net sirocil sind diesen Bericht zufolge 327 Milliarden Pfund Investitionen nötig Punkt bisher haben sich die Regierung aber nur zu gut 22,5 Milliarden Pfund verpflichtet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/16/top-uk-energy-firms-to-warn-rishi-sunak-dont-back-off-green-agenda

Net Zero-Bericht von Chris Skidmore: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-net-zero

Report des Office for Budget Stability: https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2023/#:~:text=In%20this%2C%20our%20second%20FRS,on%20the%20UK's%20public%20debt.

Das britische Climate Change Committee empfiehlt dem Land, den Energy Charter-Vertrag zu verlassen, so wie es die meisten Industrieländer bereits beschlossen haben. Die vorgeschlagenen Reformen gingen nicht weit genug und würden Öl- und Gasprojekte weitere 10 Jahre schützen.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/10/uk-should-quit-energy-charter-treaty-climate-change-committee

Kurz vor der COP28 kam es zu einer grundsätzlichen Einigung über die Umsetzung des Loss-and-damage-Fonds, der auf der letzten COP beschlossen worden war. Er wird zunächst von der Weltbank verwaltet werden. Die Höhe der Einzahlungen ist noch nicht klar. Aktivist:innen reagierten enttäuscht. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/05/countries-agree-key-measures-to-fund-most-vulnerable-to-climate-breakdown

Die Pläne der Kohle-, Öl- und gasproduzierenden Staaten zur Ausweitung der Förderung würden 2030 zu 460% mehr Kohle, 83% mehr Gas und 29% mehr Ölproduktion führen, als mit dem Pariser Abkommen vereinbar ist. Der aktuelle Production Gap Report der Vereinten Nationen konzentriert sich auf die 20 stärksten Verschmutzer-Staaten, deren Pläne fast durchgängig in radikalem Widerspruch zum Pariser Abkommen stehen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report

Report: https://productiongap.org/

• for: progress trap, progress trap - climate change - zombie virus

• faustian bargain
• link of aerosols in atmosphere to temporary cooling

see graph

• for: climate change - individual change, producer-consumer entanglement, big oil, COP28

Ohne einzelne Länder zu nennen, hat der neue IPCC-Chef Jim Skea die Entscheidungen der brititischen und anderer Regierungen kritisiert, die Dekarboisierung zu verlangsamen und neue Öl- und Gasfelder zu genehmigen. Nicht ob, sondern wie Null-Emissionen erreicht würden, entscheide darüber, ob und wann die Erhitzung aufgehalten werden könne. Der Klimawissenschaftler Joeri Rogelj sprach von einem „abrupten Rollback“ in Großbritannien. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/02/slow-route-to-net-zero-will-worsen-global-climate-crisis-ipcc-chief-warns

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Durch die ausgedehnten Waldbrände haben die brandbedingten Treibhausgasemissionen in Kanada 2023 mit 410 Megatonnen ein Allzeithoch erreicht. Der zweithöchste Wert waren 138 Megatonnen 2014. Besonders hoch waren die Emissionen durch Waldbrände auch in Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal. Die Werte werden vom EU-Programm Copernicus erhoben. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2023/09/14/news/incendi_copernicus_emissioni_co2_2023_record_canada-414437862/

Copernicus-Bericht: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-record-breaking-wildfires-throughout-2023-boreal-wildfire-season

Die rohölproduktion in den USA wird in diesem Jahr ein Rekord-Hoch erreichen Etwa 25% der US-Emissionen werden durch Öl und Gas verursacht, das auf Bundesterritorien gefördert wird. Die New York Times zeigt ausgehend von einem Beispiel im Golf von Mexiko, warum es angesichts der Mehrheitsverhältnisse in Repräsentantenhaus und Senat und des konservativen obersten Gerichtshofs für die für die Biden-Administration extrem schwierig ist, die Zusage, dort keine weiteren Bohrungen zuzulassen, umzusetzen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/climate/biden-drilling-leases.html

• for: example - animal-plant communication, bee-flower communication, bee - primrose flower communication, communication - animal - plant, communication - bee - flower, 2019 University of Tel Aviv study, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction

• for: communication - plants, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction
• question: climate change education, climate departure education

• for: climate change - false binary, jobs vs environment, example, example climate change - false binary, climate departure, leverage point

• example: false environmental binary

  • activists need to better communicate the false binary that climate denialists keep using to pull the wool over people's eyes.
  • jobs vs environment ignores the short term threat of environmental degradation
  • this is where participatory climate departure can show the threat in a visceral, concrete way that is far more compelling you the average person than any intellectual attempt to explain the differences example - climate change - false binary

ongoing rise in transporation emissions in developing countries.

• comment
  • Johan Rockstrom does not believe that a Marshall plan is feasible. He cites the rapid pace of development in India and China as a reason a Marshall plan would not work.
  • To unpack this further, China and India were both countries on the other side of (white) colonialism and now are trying to catch up. Whereas historical, white colonialism marginalized both non-white, indigenous populations as well as nature, now these countries are marginalizing nature.
  • To determine whether a Marshall plan by these large emitting countries would be feasible or not depends on the answer to another question:
    • Can these countries pivot to a Marshall plan of a disruptive rate of 15% ?
  • We must remember, as Kevin Anderson reminds us, it is uneven. Only a small minority of the population must undergo radical decarbonization rates, namely the small minority of high carbon, elite emitters.
  • What would a global Marshall plan even look like? We don't know - because the conversation is being discouraged. That's the point Kevin Anderson is making.

• for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing

• quote

  • Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position.
  • And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions
  • I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work.
  • Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan.
  • And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,.
  • Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess,
    • when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'

• comment

  • In rebuttal to Johan's perspective on Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs),
    • Kevin is addressing the issue of perspectival knowing, and
    • its implications on what solutions we entertain as a global society.
  • The example he cites is Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) illustrates two major perspectives:
    • Johan includes NETs as he see's that without them, the transition goes from manageable to unmanageable
    • Kevin questions the inclusion of the NETs as potentially shutting down discussion about what Johan would consider an unmanageable situation
  • Kevin brings up a valid point for inclusion of other voices, especially those indigenous ones who are still institutionally marginalized not only in economic and cultural spaces, but also academic and intellectual ones.
  • The decolonization of academia takes on a concrete form here. Both the global and local south have lived under severe economic repression for centuries. Anderson's contention is that making do with less is something that billions of people have had to contend with for centuries as a social norm forced upon them by colonialist then post colonialist institutions.
  • Inclusivity of a greater diversity of voices does play an important role in shaping the future direction of humanity.
  • We should be having an open discussion about a Marshall plan and should not be afraid to go there.
    • We had it in WWII, which, while more direct threat, is not as great as the threat of climate change on all life on earth in a slightly greater time scale.
  • The global and local south has a lot to teach the global and local north. For this great transition of humanity to occur likely simultaneously requires
    • radical amounts of resource transfer from the global / local north to the global / local south,and
    • radical degrowth

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

Eine Koalition kleiner Inselstaaten hat beim internationalen Seegerichtshof eine Aussage zur Belastung der Ozeane durch Treibhausgase beantragt. Wenn diese als Verschmutzung im Sinne des Seerechts anerkannt wird, lassen sich damit Klagen gegen die Industriestaaten auf Einschreiten gegen die globale Erhitzung begründen. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/pollution/des-etats-insulaires-intentent-une-action-en-justice-pour-proteger-les-oceans-20230911_ATZV3N2EAZCMXEWEKUZ32ACL4Q/

• for: climate change impacts - canada
• comment
  • imagine no more hockey or skating outside!

• for: futures, futures - Canada, climate impacts, climate impacts - Canada
• title: CANADA IN THE YEAR 2060
• author: Anne Shibata Casselman
• date: Sept., 2023

• for: quote, quote - climate change intervention, Trojan horse, Deborah Ramalope
• quote
  • Given the high unemployment rate in South Africa as well … you cannot sell it as a climate change intervention, you really need to sell it as a socioeconomic intervention.
• author: Deborah Ramalop
• date: Aug. 15, 2023
• source: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/just-energy-transition-partnerships-south-africa-cop
• comment
  • A Trojan horse strategy

• for: climate change financing - South Africa, Malango Mughogho, ZeniZeni, net-zero

• for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
• title: The Great Disruption has Begun
• author: Paul Gilding
• date: Sept 3, 2023
• source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun

• summary

  • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
  • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
  • Coins a good meme
    • Everything, everywhere, all at once
  • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
  • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride

• comment

  • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.

• key finding
  • global temp of 2 Deg C could theoretically result in a billion human deaths
• title: Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy
• authors: Joshua Pearce, Richard Pamcutt
• date: aug. 19, 2023

• for: climate change impacts - dietary, climate change impacts - meat eating, carbon footprint - meat, leverage point - meat eating
• title: Demographic and Socioeconomic Correlates of Disproportionate Beef Consumption among US Adults in an Age of Global Warming
• author: Donald Rose

• date: Aug. 30, 2023

• stats

  • study based on NHANES study of 10, 248 U.S. adults between 2015 and 2018 indicated that 12% accounted for all beef consumed

• for: climate change impacts - meat, carbon footprint - meat, leverage point - food, stats, stats - meat eating
• title:
• stats
  • 12% OF AMERICANS EAT HALF OF ALL BEEF CONSUMED IN A DAY
• date: Aug. 30, 2023
• source: https://www.futurity.org/beef-food-climate-change-2967702-2/
• cited paper: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795

• for climate change - impacts, climate departure, extinction, biodiversity loss, marine heat wave, ubc, Pacific Northwest heatwave
• paraphrase
• stats
  • An unprecedented heatwave occurred in the Pacific Northwest (PNW)
    • from ~25 June to 2 July 2021,
    • over lands colonially named
      • British Columbia (BC)
      • Alberta (AB) in Canada,
      • Washington (WA),
      • Oregon (OR) in the United States.
  • Near-surface air temperature anomalies reached up to 16–20 °C above normal over a wide region (Fig. 1),
    • with many locations breaking all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C (Fig. 2a).
  • The Canadian national temperature record was broken 3 days in a row, at multiple locations,
    • with the highest temperature of 49.6 °C recorded in Lytton, BC, on 29 June (Figs. 1b),
    • 4.6 °C higher than the Canadian record prior to this event.
  • The new record temperature was reportedly the hottest worldwide temperature recorded north of 45° latitude,
    • and hotter than any recorded temperature in Europe or South America.

• for: marine heat wave, fish dieoff, fish kill, extinction, climate departure, climate change - impacts
• title: The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
• date: Feb. 9, 2023

• for: fish kill, climate change - impacts, climate departure, fish kill - Australia

• for: climate change - impacts, extinction, biodiversity loss, fish kill, salmon dieoff, stats, stats - salmon, logging, human activity

• paraphrase

• stats

  • None of the 28 streams Cunningham and his colleagues studied hit summertime highs warmer than 25.9 C,
  • the point where warming water can become lethal.
  • But in four rivers, temperatures climbed past 20.3 C,
    • the threshold where some have found juvenile coho stop growing.
  • In some watersheds, deforestation rates climbed to 59 per cent.

• comment

  • deforestation may be a contributing factor but there are also other variables like changes in glacial melt water

-for: salmon survival temperature, stats, stats - salmon, salmon dieoff, climate change - impacts, fish kill - paraphrase -stats - One study found once temperatures climb past 20.3 C, - salmon stop growing because they can't get enough food to satisfy their metabolism.

• for: climate change - impacts, complexity, fish dieoff, salmon dieoff, convergence, ecosystem - logging, convergence - climate change and logging

• for: Canada's future, climate future - Canada, climate communication, polycrisis communication
• quote
  • What follows is a portrait of Canada in a world warmed by two degrees. This is not what our country will look like if the world fails to reduce emissions—this is our future even if we do.
• author: Anne Shibata Casselman
• date: Aug, 2023
• source
  • https://macleans.ca/society/environment/canada-in-the-year-2060/

• for: climate change - evolutionary causes, cultural evolution - unsustainability, unsustainability
• definition: Anthroecological theory (AET)
  • This theory proposes that the ultimate cause of anthropogenic environmental change is multi-level selection for niche construction and ecosystem engineering

• for: polycrisis, Trumpism, Chaos, distraction, climate crisis, climate communication, complexity, adjacency climate change fossil fuel industry, adjacency climate change big oil, adjacency climate change politics big oil, quote adjacency climate change fossil fuel industry, quote adjacency climate change big oil
• key insight
  • claim
    • One big reason that big oil is funding GOP to keep the chaotic Trump story as the main headline is to foster distraction from climate change impacts
    • big news story in the US is Donald Trump and the election, climate change impacts of extreme weather is minimized
    • the distraction of politics from a chaotic GOP is perfect distraction for the masses to ignore climate change and for big oil to continue BAU
• paraphrase
• quote
  • when you take a step back and look at that part of the distraction and the chaos that Trump and these GOP trolls deliver
  • it's it's a wonderful Boon for the oil and gas industry and the Koch brothers and the guys that fund these campaigns and the federal Federalist Society that's owning the Supreme Court
  • they want to keep doing business as usual and the easiest way to do that is
    • to have this big chaotic GOP that ignores climate change and
    • to play into what they want
      • the mainstream media not focusing more on climate change let alone making those two connections
    • a lot of mainstream media is scared to make that connection because oil companies are paying the bills of CNN and every other network
• author
  • Noel Casler

• for: future climate impacts, futures, climate impacts, preparedness, climate change - human migration, climate refuge, climate departure, Camilo Mora

• comment

  • There will be massive human migration
  • Europe is already unable to cope with the migration of a million climate refugees from Syria
  • The US is polarized due to mass migration of a few people escaping climate crisis and violence in central and South America
  • Developed countries will be overwhelmed with climate refugees number in the millions or tens of millions
  • In addition to human migration, the migration of species seeking cooler temperatures will fundamentally reshape our economies
  • climate departure is the date when local climate goes outside normal historical bounds and locally adapted species do not recognize it anymore and will be forced to migrate to survive
  • climate departure is a huge issue that is going to happen, regardless of which decarbonoization path we take. This means all species on the globe will be undergoing dramatic environmental shifts, making mass extinction more likely.

• reference

  • Dr. Camilo Mora et al. seminal 2013 paper on climate departure: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW

• for: doughnut economics, climate change - societal impacts, whole system change - motivation
• question: why transform?
  • answer
    • The word transformation is carefully chosen by John and here he explains why.
    • We face an extreme and growing polycrisis that threatens to overpower our capacity to cope with it unless we act now for whole system transformation.
    • Voices across all of society are becoming more vocal of the need to transform the existing system.
    • This transformation program does not need everyone to participate, just a sufficient but small percentage of the population who are aligned to these ideas.
    • Not everyone believes such transformation is necessary but the R+D project only needs to onboard a small percentage of the population who does believe to change the entire system for the benefit of even the non-believers.
• comment
  • John is implying social tipping points as well as social engineering

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold

• title

  • Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
• source
  • https://theconversation.com/climate-change-can-drive-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-for-worse-210641
• date
  • July 31, 2023
• author
  • Sonia Graham
• reference
  • https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10516

• for: art and healing, climate anxiety, eco-anxiety, TPF

• for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

• title

  • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
• authors
  • Sirkku Juhola
  • Tatiana Filatova
  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
  • Reinhard Mechler
  • Jurgen Scheffran
  • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
• date
  • Sept 21, 2022

• abstract

  • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
  • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
  • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
  • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
    • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
  • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
  • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
    • social tipping points,
    • climate adaptation limits and
    • systemic risks,
  • which so far have been separate.
  • Furthermore, we discuss
    • methods and
    • models
  • used to illustrate the dynamics of
    • social and
    • adaptation tipping points
  • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
  • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
    • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

• reference

  • https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/news/social-tipping-points-spotlight

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP

• reference

  • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.frontiersin.org%2Farticles%2F10.3389%2Ffclim.2022.1009234&group=world

• for: climate denial, climate denier, climate change denialism, climate change denial, climate change denier
• title
  • Why focusing on “climate change denial” is counterproductive
• authors
  • Christian Bretter
  • Felix Schulz
• source
  • https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2217716120

• date

  • March 1, 2023

• claim

  • We believe that the dichotomous view of
    • climate change “deniers” and
    • climate change “accepters”
  • is not helpful.
  • This way of framing the debate only stymies our path to a zero-carbon future. It does so for three primary reasons:
    • First, it creates an inaccurate picture by overstating the share and importance of climate change deniers for tackling climate change.
    • Second, a focus on climate denialism divides and polarizes society, further preventing constructive engagement with different opinions.
    • Third, it distracts us from concentrating on the more pressing question: how we should tackle climate change, not if.

• comment

  • I disagree with some of the claims, especially when there is a spectrum of disbelief that has significant impacts on dealing with climate crisis effectively.
    • for example, there is a lot of climate change denialism in the Republican party which is holding up adequate funding for dealing effectively with the climate crisis.

• for: high-SES, 1%, W2W, inequality, carbon inequality, elites, billionaires, millionaires, leverage point
• five high carbon emission areas of high-SES, HNWI, VHNWI
  • consumption
  • investor
  • role model within social networks
  • participants in organizations
  • citizens seeking to influence public policies or corporate behavior

• for: high-SES, 1%, W2W, inequality, carbon inequality, elites, billionaires, millionaires, leverage point
• definition
  • high-SES
    • high socioeconomic status
    • equivalent to high net worth individual (HNWI) or
    • very high net worth individual (VHNWI)

• for: carbon inequality, w2w, leverage point - climate change, 1%, inequality, wealth tax
• title
  • The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions
• authors
  • Kristian S. Nielsen
  • Kimberly A. Nicholas
  • Felix Creutzig
  • Thomas Dietz
  • Paul C. Stern
• date
  • Sept 30, 2021 -source
  • https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00900-y
• abstract
  • People with high socioeconomic status disproportionally affect energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions directly
    • through their consumption and
    • indirectly through their financial and social resources.
  • However, few climate change mitigation initiatives have targeted this population segment,
    • and the potential of such initiatives remains insufficiently researched.
  • In this Perspective, we analyse key characteristics of high-socioeconomic-status people and explore five roles through which they have a disproportionate impact on energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions and potentially on climate change mitigation, namely as:
    • consumers,
    • investors,
    • role models,
    • organizational participants and
    • citizens.
  • We examine what is known about their disproportionate impact via consumption and
    • explore their potential influence on greenhouse gas emissions through all five roles.
  • We suggest that future research should focus on strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by high-socioeconomic-status people and to align their
    • investments,
    • organizational choices and
    • actions as social and political change agents
  • with climate change mitigation goals.

• for: inequality, 1%, elites, carbon inequality, leverage point, leverage point - climate change, oxfam
• quote
  • Richest 1% Took 2/3rds of Global Wealth Since 2020
  • Richest 1% increased wealth in 2020 and 2021 twice as much as 99% of Population Earned

• for: ecological civilization, climate emergency, climate EMERGEncy inner/outer transformation, eco civilization, rapid whole system change

• Title

  • Ecological Civilization: From Emergency to Emergence
• Author
  • David Korten
• Date
  • May 25, 2021

• for: carbon inequality, W2W, leverage point

• five leverage points

  • consumer.
  • investors
  • lobbyist
  • influencer
  • citizen

• for: W2W, carbon inequality, leverage point
• quote
  • "people who are wealthy contribute the most to causing climate change,
    • they are unfortunately also in the most ideal position to help us mitigate climate change"
• author
  • Kristian Nielsen
    • https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00900-y
    • The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions

• for: polycrisis, dual crisis, climate change and political polarization

• key insight

  • we have to deal with climate crisis AND political polarization simultaneously
  • unless we solve the political polarization problem, we will be stuck in policy gridlock

• Title
  • Psychology and Global Climate Change: Addressing a Multi-faceted Phenomenon and Set of Challenges A Report by the American Psychological Association’s Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change
• Authors
  • Janet Swim
  • Susan Clayton
  • Thomas Doherty
  • Robert Gifford
  • George Howard
  • Joseph Reser
  • Paul Stern
  • Elke Weber

• Title
  • Hiding in plain sight: The missing trillions for climate change
• Author Axel Van Trotsenburg
• Date
  • June 15, 2023
• Publisher
  • World Bank

4-Jul-2023 — Transcript is translated from German by YouTube.

Description (translated from German):

The problem of a Bavarian farmer: his hops are thirsty and the energy transition is progressing too slowly. The solution: a solar system that provides shade over the fields - and a sustainable second source of income.

Das von der britischen Regierung selbst eingesetzte Climate Change Committee hat die Klimapolitik Großbritanniens als völlig unzureichend kritisiert. Das Land habe seine führende Position bei der Dekarbonisierung verloren und handele in einigen Bereichen (z.B. Verkehr, Heizungen, Dekarbonisierung der Industrie, Propagierung einer emissionsarmen Lebensweise) in einer völlig inakzeptablen Weise.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/28/uk-has-made-no-progress-on-climate-plan-say-governments-own-advisers

Bericht des Climate Change Committees: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/2023-progress-report-to-parliament/

2022 lag die Durchschnittstemperatur in Europa 2,3 Grad über dem vorindustriellen Mittel Punkt kein Kontinent heizt sich so schnell auf wie Europa. Das geht aus einem neuen Bericht von Copernicus und World Meteorological Organisation hervor, der auch auf das schnelle Wachstum der Erneuerbaren in Europa eingeht. https://taz.de/Daten-zur-Klimakrise/!5942276/

Bericht: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-change-impacts-scar-europe-increase-renewables-signals-hope-future

Im ersten Jahr nach der Invasion der Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat Großbritannien für 19,3 Milliarden Pfund Öl und Gas aus anderen autoritären Petrostaaten als Russland bezogen. Eine Analyse von Desmog ergibt, dass Großbritannien in diesem Jahr für 125,7 Milliarden Pfund fossile Brennstoffe importiert und damit zum ersten Mal die 100-Milliarden-Grenze überschritten hat, obwohl eine Reduktion des Verbrauchs von Öl und Gas dringend nötig ist. Trotz des Embargos verkaufte auch Russland eine Rekordmenge an Öl in diesem Jahr. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/09/193bn-of-fossil-fuels-imported-by-uk-from-authoritarian-states-in-year-since-ukraine-war

• claim
• AI dilemma is bigger problem than climate change

Is That Climate Change? The Science of Extreme Event Attribution

Congressional Research Service R47583 June 1, 2023

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change

Die World Weather Attribution Group hat in einer Studie nachgewiesen, dass die große Dürre an Horn von Afrika ein Ergebnis der Erhitzung der Erde durch Treibhausgase ist. Von der Dürre sind 50 Millionen Menschen direkt und weitere 100 Millionen indirekt betroffen. Ohne die Erhöhung der Temperaturen hätten dieselben Regenverhältnisse nicht zu einer Dürre geführt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study

Climate change: How to talk to a denier by Merlyn Thomas & Marco Silva

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/opinion/climate-change-deniers.html

Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, climate scientist at Texas Tech University

the referent "the science" is "the [climate] science" in this context

How to Convince a Climate Change Skeptic | The Brink | Boston University by Andrew Thurston

Recommended Source

Under the "More on Philosophies of Copyright" section, I recommended adding the scholarly article by Chinese scholar Peter K. Yu that explains how Chinese philosophy of Yin-Yang can address the contradictions in effecting or eliminating intellectual property laws. One of the contradictions is in intellectual property laws protecting individual rights while challenging sustainability efforts for future generations (as climate change destroys more natural resources.

Yu, Peter K., Intellectual Property, Asian Philosophy and the Yin-Yang School (November 19, 2015). WIPO Journal, Vol. 7, pp. 1-15, 2015, Texas A&M University School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper No. 16-70, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2693420

Below is a short excerpt from the article that details Chinese philosophical thought on IP and sustainability:

"Another area of intellectual property law and policy that has made intergenerational equity questions salient concerns the debates involving intellectual property and sustainable development. Although this mode of development did not garner major international attention until after the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the Yin-Yang school of philosophy—which “offers a normative model with balance, harmony, and sustainability as ideals”—provides important insight into sustainable development."

Das Interview mit dem UAE-Ölminister, #Adnoc-Chef und #COP28-Präsidenten Sultan Al Jaber ist ein Paradebeispiel dafür, wie die Fossil-Branche den Kampf gegen die durch sie verursachte Klimakatastrophe hijackt. Dazu gehört es auch - verkörpert durch diesen Minister, der gleichzeitig Firmenchef ist - das hochpolitische Öl- und Gasgeschäft als Business-as-usual auszugeben.

// - This is the critical question - Looking at history, can we see predictive patterns - when it makes sense to stop and take questions of the unknown seriously - rather than steaming ahead into uncharted territory? - We might find that society did not follow science's call - for applying the precautionary principle - because profits were just too great - the profit bias at play - profit overrides safety, health and wellbeing

• A good observation
  • about the cognitive dissonance of the situation

Indeed, - and the market could very well make the decision - that will exceed planetary boundaries - after all, the highest priorities are the lowest cost goods - those already well established in the market place by reliance on fossil fuels, - that can maintain an individual's life

• Quote

• Title: Climate Homicide: Prosecuting Big Oil for Climate Deaths

• Author:

  • David Arkush
  • Donald Braman

• Abstract

• Paraphrase
  • Prosecutors regularly bring homicide charges against individuals and corporations
    • whose reckless or negligent acts or omissions
    • cause unintentional deaths,
    • as well as those whose misdemeanors or felonies cause unintentional deaths.
  • Fossil fuel companies learned decades ago that
    • what they
      • produced,
      • marketed, and
      • sold
    • would generate “globally catastrophic” climate change.
  • Rather than alert the public and curtail their operations,
    • they worked to
      • deceive the public about these harms and
      • to prevent regulation of their lethal conduct.
  • They funded efforts to
    • call sound science into doubt and
    • to confuse their
      • shareholders,
      • consumers, and
      • regulators.
    • poured money into political campaigns to elect or install
      • judges,
      • legislators, and
      • executive officials hostile to any
        • litigation,
        • regulation, or
        • competition
      • that might limit their profits.
  • Today, the climate change that they forecast
    • has already killed thousands of people in the United States,
    • and it is expected to become increasingly lethal for the foreseeable future.
  • Given the
    • extreme lethality of the conduct and
    • the awareness of the catastrophic risk
      • on the part of fossil fuel companies,
      • should they be charged with homicide?
  • Could they be convicted?
  • In answering these questions,
    • this Article makes several contributions to
      • our understanding of criminal law and
      • the role it could play in combating crimes committed at a massive scale.
  • It describes
    • the doctrinal and
    • social predicates of homicide prosecutions
  • where corporate conduct endangers much or all of the public.
  • It also identifies important advantages of
    • homicide prosecutions
    • relative to
      • civil and
      • regulatory remedies,
    • and it details
      • how and
      • why
    • prosecution for homicide may be the most effective legal remedy available in cases like this.
  • Finally, it argues that,
    • if our criminal legal system cannot focus more intently on climate crimes soon
    • we may leave future generations with significantly less for the law to protect.

// - This article provides an intersectional study of: - climate change, - collective action research - terror management theory / mortality salience - it explains the beneficial impacts of non-rational relational ontology and recommends the use of ritual practices based on this as a way to promote pro-environmental behavior

//

// in other words - presenting knowledge alone can trigger a host of counter-productive behaviiors

• 21:52 Carbon credits, carbon markets
  • it's a scam designed to perpetuate fossil fuel use, in a phoney war against the climate crisis
  • Offsets were designed to allow polluters to pay others to create schemes that would compensate or "offset" that pollution. The classic example WAS afforestation, the planting of trees that can sequester that carbon.
  • Carbon neutrality comes from this idea that you can keep polluting if you offset it and become "carbon neutral"
  • A company may decarbonize a lot of their supply chain but may struggle to get rid of airflights around the world. In that case, they use offsets. When companies analyze the very difficult choices, they take the easy way out and use carbon offsets
  • However, there is so much offsets for afforestation now that there isn't enough land on earth
  • Carbon markets are a recipe for grifting and fraud or zero impacts
    • https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe
  • This is the current state of offsets

31:00 Shell oil carbon offset greenwashing scam - the sky zero proposal - Shell claims they can offset all the O+G emissions out of the ground - it is preposterous - there's not enough land on earth when you tally up all the carbon offset afforestation schemes

• 32:30 Neo-colonialism

  • rich white man can offset his emissions by buying land from a developing nation. Now the indigenous people cannot use that land for any reason.
  • also, will require huge amount of water to grow those trees
  • we don't have enough land and we don't have 100 years, only 5 years.
  • nature-based solutions are an industrial, myopic approach

• 37:00 Deferred Emission Reduction

  • a lot of carbon credits are called deferred emission reduction credits.
  • this is avoided emissions - ie. trees in a forest with 100 ton of sequestering potential
  • this is promise to not destroy the biosphere any further so it's not removing any existing carbon
  • maybe multiple people might own the same forest, or someone might come along and burn it down
  • Trees are vulnerable to climate impacts - ie. Microsoft bought a large forest in California that later burned down in a climate change intensified wildfire

• 40:00 can we do anything within the extractive capitalist system?

  • some people claim that as long as extractivist capitalism still persists, we cannot have system change
  • also a neocolonialist element - global north exploited the global south to create most of the emissions in the atmospheric commons
  • a number of people are beginning to see that an extractivist capitalist system is not in line with effectively addressing the climate crisis
  • wind, solar, etc has displaced electricity generation in a number of countries like in the UK. However, these are only a few countries.Renewables are helping increase overall energy production

• 44:22: Stop burning fossil fuels

  • t doesn't matter if investments in renewables triple. It won't make a difference if we don't significantly stop burning fossil fuels at the same time.

• 47:00 economic growth prevents real change

  • Insisting on 1, 2 or 3% growth, will limit the response to the climate threat to render it irrelevant
  • Climate change is still mostly an optimization problem. They are more concerned with economic damage.
  • Economists believe that anything that threatens economic growth cannot be accepted

• 51:00 Degrowth making headway

  • Degrowth scholars are getting more attention on the need to decouple economic grwoth from climate policies

• 52:10 Is there a positive future scenario - The role of solidarity

  • Solidarity is the greatest strength we can harness.
  • The success of Doughnut Economics gives me hope
  • The richest 1% must reign in their impacts and redistribute to allow the impoverished to live humane lives
  • We can all have good lives and we don't have to manufacture that wonder
  • This is what it is to be human

From TED Countdown London 2022

Abstract

To restrain global warming, we know we need to drastically reduce pollution. The very next step after that: using both natural and technological solutions to trap as much excess carbon dioxide from the air as possible. Enter Orca, the world's first large-scale direct air capture and storage plant, built in Iceland by the team at Climeworks, led by climate entrepreneur Jan Wurzbacher. This plant is capable of removing 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year. With affordability and scalability in mind, Wurzbacher shares his vision for what comes after Orca, the future of carbon removal tech -- and why these innovations are crucial to stop climate change.

Coernicus-Daten zum Sommer

Classic issue

• Title: Faster than expected

• subtitle: why most climate scientists can’t tell the truth (in public) Author: Jackson Damien

• This is a good article written from a psychotherapist's perspective,

• examining the psychology behind why published, mainstream, peer reviewed climate change research is always dangerously lagging behind current research,
• and recommending what interventions could be be taken to remedy this
• This your of scientific misinformation coming from scientists themselves
• gives minimizers and denialists the very ammunition they need to legitimise delay of the urgently needed system change.
• What climate scientists say In public is far from what they believe in private.
• For instance, many climate scientists don't believe 1.5 Deg. C target is plausible anymore, but don't say so in public.
• That reticence is due to fear of violating accepted scientific social norms,
• being labeled alarmist and risk losing their job.
• That creates a collective cognitive dissonance that acts as a feedback signal
• for society to implement change at a dangerously slow pace
• and to not spend the necessary resources to prepare for the harm already baked in.
• The result of this choice dissonance is that
• there is no collective sense of an emergency or a global wartime mobilisation scale of collective behaviour.
• Our actions are not commensurate to the permanent emergency state we are now in.
• The appropriate response that is suggested is for the entire climate science community to form a coalition that creates a new kind of peer reviewed publishing and reporting
• that publicly responds to the current and live knowledge that is being discovered every day.
• This is done from a planetary and permanent emergency perspective in order to eliminate the dangerous delays that create the wrong human collective behavioural responses.

Change is tough but needed. It may not directly help those who participate in surveys of campus climate.

41% of the global population - see climate change as a serious threat

TITLE: Global Climate Change Poll

• = eco-anxiety
• = climate change anxiety
• 50% of people reported feeling helpless

• = climate anxiety
• = ecoanxiety
• feelings of = helplessness, = powerless

• 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
• depending on the variables of the context
• = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?