= Summary
- Achieving global climate goals will require large volumes of materials
- their mining and processing will generate associated environmental impacts.
- this research estimates power generation infrastructure demand for materials
- and related carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO2eq) emissions from 2020 to 2050
- across 75 different climate-energy scenarios
- and explore the impact
of climate and technology choices upon material demand and carbon emitted.
Findings
- Material demands increase but cumulatively do not exceed geological reserves.
- However, annual production of neodymium (Nd),
dysprosium (Dy), tellurium (Te), fiberglass, and solar-grade polysilicon may need to grow considerably.
- Cumulative CO2 emissions related
to materials for electricity infrastructure may be substantial (4–29 Gt CO2eq in 1.5?C scenarios)
- but consume only a minor share of global carbon budgets (1%–9% of a 320 Gt CO2eq 1.5?C 66% avoidance
budget).
- technology choices and mitigation scenarios influence the large quantities of materials mobilized during
a future power sector decarbonization
Key limitations
- model calculates material demand and material-associated emissions for new generation infrastructure ---- but does not include material requirements and emissions associated with:
- fuel production,
- parts manufacturing,
- construction,
- fuel combustion,
- operations,
- decommissioning and end-of-life processes.
- the embodied emissions per ton of material reflect a cradle-to-factory-gate scope that incorporates emissions associated with mining, ore processing, and refining,
- but not the manufacturing of finished parts or the end-of-life phase.
- The study’s results may consequently underestimate true raw material requirements,
- The selected materials of interest is also not comprehensive.
- Simplistic separate estimate of material requirements associated with off-site transmission and distribution may require sizable quantities of Cu, steel, cement, and
Al,
- Study omits much of the transmission grid’s real-world complexity.
- Study does not account for the widespread future deployment of grid-scale battery storage,
which may in turn leverage distributed battery capacity from electric vehicles.
- Requirements for Mn and Ni in power generation infrastructure are inconsistently reported in the literature, partially because these are often constituents of alloyed steels of varying compositions.
- Therefore, projections of Mn and Ni requirements are relatively tenuous. The study refrains from discussing estimated Mn and Ni demand in detail.
- The related results are included in the supplemental
information