5%的灾害预测准确率提升虽然看似不大，但这是针对20种不同灾害类别的综合提升，对于灾害预警系统而言具有重要价值。这种提升可能挽救生命并减少经济损失，特别是在高风险地区。

令人惊讶的是：ADeLe方法能够以约88%的准确度预测AI模型在新任务上的表现，这包括像GPT-4o和Llama-3.1这样先进的大模型。这种预测能力远超传统评估方法，为AI性能评估提供了革命性的突破，使研究人员能够更可靠地预见模型在未见过的任务上的表现。

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Martin, G. P., Sperrin, M., & Sotgiu, G. (2020). Performance of Prediction Models for Covid-19: The Caudine Forks of the External Validation. European Respiratory Journal. https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.03728-2020

COVID Projections Tracker. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://www.covid-projections.com/

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Is the “science” behind the lockdown any good? (n.d.). Financial Times. Retrieved June 2, 2020, from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/21/1590091709000/It-s-all-very-well--following-the-science---but-is-the-science-any-good--/