annualized revenues approaching $50 billion – a fivefold increase in as many months.
大多数人认为AI公司的增长是渐进式的，而非指数级的。作者提到的Anthropic收入在几个月内增长五倍，这一速度远超传统科技公司的增长轨迹，挑战了人们对AI商业化和市场扩张速度的常规认知，暗示AI经济可能比预期更具爆发性。
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- Last 7 days
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www.exponentialview.co www.exponentialview.co
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- Apr 2026
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www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com
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From the time I began work on AI in 2010 to now, the amount of training data that goes into frontier AI models has grown by a staggering 1 trillion times—from roughly 10¹⁴ flops for early systems to over 10²⁶ flops for today's largest models.
令人惊讶的是：AI训练数据的增长速度令人难以置信。从2010年到2026年，AI模型的训练数据量增长了1万亿倍，这是一个天文数字般的增长，远超大多数人的想象。这种指数级增长是AI发展的核心驱动力，也是为什么AI进步如此迅速的原因。
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From the time I began work on AI in 2010 to now, the amount of training data that goes into frontier AI models has grown by a staggering 1 trillion times—from roughly 10¹⁴ flops for early systems to over 10²⁶ flops for today's largest models.
令人惊讶的是：AI训练数据量在短短16年间增长了1万亿倍，这是一个难以想象的指数级增长。这种计算能力的爆炸式发展远超人类直觉，解释了为什么AI进步如此迅速且难以预测。大多数人无法真正理解这种指数级增长意味着什么，这也是为什么许多专家对AI发展速度预测失败的原因。
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www.understandingai.org www.understandingai.org
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GPT-3.5 — the model that powered the original ChatGPT — could complete tasks that took a human programmer about 30 seconds.
从 GPT-3.5 的 30 秒到 Claude Opus 4.6 的 12 小时，两年内增长了 1440 倍。从 GPT-2 到 GPT-5，任务难度增长了 5400 倍。这个进步速度在人类技术史上几乎没有先例——工业革命历经百年实现劳动效率数十倍提升，而 AI 在五年内实现了数千倍的某种意义上的「认知效率」提升。令人不安的是，这条曲线目前没有任何放缓的迹象。
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a logistic curve is a poor fit because we haven't seen any evidence of the exponential growth in time horizon slowing down.
METR 明确指出：截至 2026 年初，时间地平线的指数增长没有任何放缓迹象——这意味着 S 曲线的「饱和阶段」尚未到来。对 AI 进展持怀疑态度者常援引「进步将减速」的论点，但这个数据点直接挑战了这一叙事。指数增长持续意味着每隔固定时间，AI 能独立完成的任务复杂度就翻倍——而这个倍增周期，根据历史数据，大约是 6-7 个月。
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Global AI computing capacity is doubling every 7 months
Epoch AI 的相关研究显示全球 AI 算力每 7 个月翻倍——比摩尔定律（18-24 个月）快了 3 倍以上。在这个速度下，Google 今天 25% 的市场份额意味着：如果竞争对手没能跟上这个扩张节奏，算力差距不会缩小，只会以指数级扩大。算力竞赛正在进入「赢家通吃」的临界点。
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- Dec 2025
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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destructive potential weapons over history, you see a very similar spike, very similar exponential curve as we've seen over and over again today
for - greal acceleration - exponential growth of destructiveness of weapons (in joules)
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- Aug 2023
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www.uspto.gov www.uspto.gov
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- for: progress, progress trap, exponential growth - knowledge, exponential growth - technology, technology - exponential growth, US patents, patents, intellectual property -description: GIF graph of US patents from the start in 1825 to 2021
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Trevor Bedford. (2022, January 28). Omicron viruses can be divided into two major groups, referred to as PANGO lineages BA.1 and BA.2 or @nextstrain clades 21K and 21L. The vast majority of globally sequenced Omicron have been 21K (~630k) compared a small minority of 21L (~18k), but 21L is gaining ground. 1/15 [Tweet]. @trvrb. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1487105396879679488
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- Sep 2021
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Ciccione, L., Sablé-Meyer, M., & Dehaene, S. (2021). Analyzing the misperception of exponential growth in graphs. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dah3x
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www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
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Since about 70% of water delivered from the Colorado River goes to growing crops, not to people in cities, the next step will likely be to demand large-scale reductions for farmers and ranchers across millions of acres of land, forcing wrenching choices about which crops to grow and for whom — an omen that many of America’s food-generating regions might ultimately have to shift someplace else as the climate warms.
Deep Concept: The US Government, in the 1960's/70's provided a crystal ball glimpse into the future by defining climate change (man-made global warming) as a national security concern. Various reports warned of "exponential" growth (population) and related man-made factors (technology etc.) that would contribute to climate change and specifically discussed the possibility of irreconcilable damage to "finite" natural resources.
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- Oct 2020
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13664/.
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- Aug 2020
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13257/
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- Jun 2020
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Zimmer, C. (2020, June 1). How You Should Read Coronavirus Studies, or Any Science Paper. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/article/how-to-read-a-science-study-coronavirus.html
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- May 2020
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Mbopi-Keou, F.-X., Pondi, J.-E., & Sosso, M. A. (2020). COVID-19 in Cameroon: A crucial equation to resolve. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30373-X
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