What happens is that weak models hallucinate (sometimes causally hitting a real problem) that there is a lack of validation of the start of the window... without understanding why they, if put together, create an issue.
这一发现揭示了AI漏洞检测的严重局限性：弱模型只能通过模式匹配'发现'表面相似的问题，却无法理解问题之间的因果关系。这表明当前AI在网络安全中的应用可能存在系统性盲点，值得深入研究。
the move from pattern matching to understanding cause and effect
作者指出从模式匹配到理解因果关系的转变是AGI的关键，这一观点挑战了当前AI领域过度关注表面模式识别的趋势。它暗示真正的智能需要超越数据关联，达到对世界运作原理的深层理解。
the ability to keep learning after training and the move from pattern matching to understanding cause and effect
作者提出AGI需要两个关键要素：持续学习能力和从模式匹配到理解因果关系的能力。这一观点挑战了当前AI发展路径，暗示我们可能过于关注规模和数据，而忽视了真正的理解能力。
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Gugerty, L., Shreeves, M., & Dumessa, N. (2021). Biased belief updating in causal reasoning about COVID-19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/bfw76
Causal inference isn’t what you think it is. (n.d.). LSHTM. Retrieved June 26, 2020, from https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/events/causal-inference-isnt-what-you-think-it
Lagnado, D. (2020 April 27). What if.... Changing Minds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W11CRLjRgo&app=desktop
Johnson, S. G. B., Bilovich, A., & Tuckett, D. (2020, April 30). Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/urc96
fact
So Campbell seems to have a lot of "causal chains," so where are the "bundles of evidence" exactly? I mean, this definitely seems to be moral reasoning, but this looks like more of a chain than a bundle.
Sobel, D. M. & Kirkham, N.Z. (2012). The influence of social information on children’s statistical and causal inferences. In F.Xu (Ed.). Rational constructivism in cognitive development.
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Sobel, D. M., & Kirkham, N. Z. (2007). Bayes nets and Babies: Infants’ developing representations of causal knowledge. Developmental Science, 10, 298-306.