11 Matching Annotations
  1. Aug 2020
  2. Jul 2020
  3. Jun 2020
  4. Apr 2020
  5. Oct 2017
  6. Jul 2017
  7. Aug 2016
    1. eighth flood

      When the return-interval describes the expected recurrence frequency for a single site/region, we must expect many more occurrences over a wider area. This is explained by maths and mathematics (the Binomial distribution and probabilities). Then a small change in the probabilities (probability density function) can lead to a large increase in the number of observed events. Furthermore, the definition of climate change is indeed a changing probability density function (climate is weather statistics), which means that a past 500-year event is no longer a 500-year event, but perhaps a 100-year event. In other words, this is not surprising and is in accordance with mathematical reasoning. Actually, it is to be expected, especially since a warming leads to a higher evaporation rate and more moisture in the atmosphere. The fact that the return intervals are estimated for single sites/regions means that we can expect a dramatic increase in similar extreme weather events in the future. We can gauge this development by studying the number of record-breaking events: see http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008EO410002/pdf

  8. Jul 2016
    1. Pages 7-8

      Rockwell and Sinclair talk here about developing an “agile hermeneutics” by which they mean an approach to fast/extreme writing. An example of this is that they tried to write a short essay in one day from the initial research but they also do things such as working in pairs with one person typing and the others talking things through.

  9. Oct 2013
    1. To put it generally, all the valuable qualities that youth and age divide between them are united in the prime of life, while all their excesses or defects are replaced by moderation and fitness. The body is in its prime from thirty to five-and-thirty; the mind about forty-nine.