Three of the four metrics (ECI, log METR 50% time horizon, and a math-focused index we constructed from several math benchmarks) show strong evidence that progress has sped up relative to a global linear trend fit to data from 2023 onward.
大多数人认为AI能力提升是渐进式的线性发展,但作者通过数据分析发现,在三个关键指标上,AI能力实际上已经加速,这挑战了人们对AI发展速度的普遍认知。这种加速现象发生在2023年之后,与推理模型的发布时间点吻合。