Flag: suggested answer (don't read if don't want to see a (possibly incorrect) attempt:

Update - realise some bi-modal continuous distribution may be better (but potentially difficult to perform the update)

Attempt: we model the parameter pi in a Bayesian way: we put a distribution on pi (0.7 w.p 1/2, 0.2 w.p 1/2) then we weight the 1/2 with the likelihood of the observations, given that parameter (i.e. what is the likleihood when pi = 0.7, multiply that by 1/2 then divide by the normalizing constant to get our new probability for pi = 0.7 (do the same for pi = 0.2, the normalizing constant is the sum of the 'scores' for 0.7 and 0.2 i.e. 1/2 * likelihood so we can't 'divide by the normalising constant until we have the score for both 0.2 and 0.7)

The infamous Apple typewriter memo is 40 years old ... by [[Richard Polt]]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_collective_guilt

Kollektivschuld

Guilt pride is something of a modern construction. Unlike Walsers, who experienced his guilt (because he served in WW2 under the Nazis), most Germans haven't experienced WW2. Guilt pride is thus an attempt to build a new collective identity for Germany, devoid of any authenticity (instead hinges more on profilicity).

Good Remington Portable Typewriters, Bad Remington Portable Typewriters by [[Robert Messenger]]

The Remington Graduate and Torpedo 900 are (good) variations/rebrandings of the Remington Ten Forty.

Good Remington Ten Fortys weight over 5kg and the bad are 4.6kg.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000222516/vermoegenssteuern-empfohlen-oenb-experten-duerfen-studie-nicht-oeffentlich-praesentieren

oo

Arabs and Turks as having most asabiyyah (even more than the likes of Caesar and Alexander)

for - history - King Philip II - El Escorial - polycrisis - religion - history - adjacency - polycrisis - war - religion - epoche - CHD

Adjacency - between - polycrisis - war - religion - epoche - CHD - history - adjacency statement - King Philip II is an interesting historical figure who left behind this enormous physical artefact of El Escorial. - So much of history has revolved around the religious beliefs of leaders, and how those beliefs are entangled and enacted in wars, enslavement, politics and power. - Phillip's fervent Catholicism drove him to expand his empire, fight wars with the Ottoman empire and Protestants and build the sprawling El Escorial complex. - The building was designed to express his Catholic beliefs - from the monastery to the Basilica, secret relic room, to library and mausoleum. His beliefs were responsible for driving his behaviour, which influenced much of humanity during his rule. - religion's power have influenced many powerful people of history, resulting in mass influence on society, including perpetuating inequality, extractionism, colonialism and violence - all in the name of a concept of apprehending the great mystery of life. - The desire to understand the great mystery of life and death has been hijacked to perpetuate great harm instead. What is needed now is a wisdom commons for the entire species that can help elevate, deepen and interconnect all the legacy belief systems before it. For in spite of the great variety of belief systems, they are fundamentally united through a common humans denominator - they all require human beings. - It is a deficiency in any existing systems that can justify offering and violence against other belief systems and claim the throne of THE one and only, true belief system. Indeed, the claim of "the truth" is itself already a poison since it is never achievable. An epoche for the common person is necessary to penetrate the weak link of the argument itself, the linguistic social conditioning which enables storytelling itself. - the inability to collectively grasp the symbolosphere, the noosphere compells us towards beliefs, out of which self- righteousness, self- reification and othering blossom.

The threat of physical violence is silencing those in power even on the right. We're already at war except for the bullets.

Frank, Anne. The Diary of a Young Girl: The Definitive Edition. Edited by Otto H. Frank and Mirjam Pressler. Translated by Susan Massotty. 1947. Reprint, New York: Bantam, 1997.

How are they defining "multiplicity" here? There seems to be a tacit definition with respect to being in opposition to "unity" (of a work), but not an explicit one. It also seems to be a shaded meaning with respect to the more common one.

unity: essence, core, coherence, oneness

They use the word "multiplicity" in the usual sense of large number or multitude on p55: "The multiplicity of the rules indicates the complexity of the one habit to be formed, not a plurality of distinct habits."

They also revisit it in the upcoming section: "Mastering the Multiplicity: The Art of Outlining a Book" on p88

Perhaps its just me but there's a linguistic "softness" of the uses of unity and multiplicity here with respect to 2023. Though these two opposites fit the dictionary definitions of their words, is it possible that this softness is the result of a sort of historical linguistic shift I'm feeling in these words? I can't quite put my finger on it, but perhaps it's the relationship of unity to religion? Neither seem to be frequently used these days.

The Ngram Viewer shows peaks for the use of unity in 1660 and 1960 of almost 75% higher usage compared to a broader historical average. It is generally waning since. Multiplicity has about 1/4 the use of unity and has remained flat over time. What caused the peaks in the use of "unity" during these periods? This 1972 use was on the downslope of the 1960s peak. Was it used in the 1940 version?

The 20th century increase in the use of unity begins around 1914 and may have been related to political shades of meaning going into WWI with another marked rise in the lead up to WW2.

Writing in 1951, Hutchins is writing too close to the time period of post World War II to have a better view of this topic. He's fashioned far too simple a story as a result.

There was a lack of critical thinking and over-reliance on top down approval which was harmful in the Japanese story of this time period though.

The bridge of “Confirmation” (mm. 17–24) features two four-bar phrases with ii7 –V7 tonicizations of the IV and ≤VI key areas. The chord–scale relationship for the bridge in Figure 18.4 includes a different selection of modes: Dorian, Mixolydian, and Ionian for Cmin7–F7–B≤Maj7, and Dorian, Altered, and Lydian for E≤min7–A≤7–D≤Maj7. Tonal and contextual considerations are particularly evident with the choice of Altered mode in m. 22, which accommodates notes from the tonic key and prepares the arrival of FMaj7 in m. 25. The last A section (mm. 25–32) features a much bolder selection of modes. The choices of A Altered in m. 26 and F Locrian in m. 28 are particularly poignant. The former injects chromatic notes into the structure of dominant 7th chord. The choice of F Locrian over Cmin7–F7 in m. 28 might seem out of place because neither chord (at least not in the present form) establishes a convincing relationship with this mode. But, the F Locrian mode forms a chord–scale relationship with F7(≤9≥9)sus, which is an effective harmonic substitution for Cmin7–F7. While the selection of modes in Figure 18.4 is overcrowded with different options, an improvisation may focus on only a few modes. In fact, each A section contains a selection of modes that could be implemented in the course of an entire solo. In establishing a successful chord–scale relationship for the tune, be mindful of three important con- siderations: (1) modal hierarchy, (2) chromatic treatment, and (3) voice leading. Chromatic modes, for instance, contain notes that might need preparation. This preparation usually takes place anywhere from one beat to one measure before the chromatic notes occur. The succession of modes in mm. 5–6—B≤ Mixolydian and D Mixolydian ≤13—illustrates such a case. The latter mode contains the chromatic ≤13th that was introduced as ≤7th of B≤7 in m. 5. “CONFIRMATION” 239

Schubert Symphony No 3 II

The TLL contains every instance of every know Latin word in every known medium from the beginning of the language down to the 2nd century CE and from then on, every lexicographically significant instance from that time until the 6th century CE. [22:32]

Kaiser Wilhelm II appropriated 70,000 M in 1897 to help fund the estimated 11 year dictionary project that would be known as the Wörterbuch der ägyptischen Sprache.

Walter Freeman's barbaric obsession and fervent practice of the miracle cure for mental illness that is the "transorbital lobotomy"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_gy9DFtw5U

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62834633

This was my live news coverage source on the morning that Elizabeth died. 2022-09-08

Inequalities in income and wealth decreased markedly in the West from 1914 to 1980 due to a number of factors including:<br /> - Two World Wars and the Great Depression dramatically overturned the power relationships between labor and capital<br /> - A progressive tax on income and inheritance reduced the concentration of wealth and helped increase mobility<br /> - Liquidation of foreign and colonial assets as well as dissolution of public debt

Arg3: Malgré les risques environnementaux qui pèsent sur les EM, il existe des initiatives pour protéger ces espaces

• Réduction des émissions de CO2 GAS + niveau CO2 atm + température ++ océans = phytoplanctons moins utiles à l'homme Absorber 30% du CO2 généré par l'homme Produire 50% oxygène = indispensables pour la vie humaine sur terre.

Arg2: Le réchauffement climatique est une menace pour les EM

• La pollution plastique Consommation = 8M tonnes déchets / an => Formation d'une "soupe de plastique" / "continent de plastique" Risque pour biodiversité marine, espèces ingèrent le plastique

• Les marées noires constituent un risque pour les EM 2010: Explosion de la plateforme "Deepwater" = marée noire sur les côtes de la Louisiane = EU conflits d'usage entre compagnies pétrolière, pêcheurs et employés du tourisme .

Arg1: Il est nécessaire de protéger les EM car des ressources sont surexploitées

• L'enjeu de la surpêche selon ONU: 1975 - 2021: 10% => 30% des ressources halieutiques surexploitées 90% des espèces maritimes peches ne se renouvellent pas assez vite naturellement Mer Noire, Méditerranée = Peche industrielle, technique du chalutage

• La pêche illégale et la pêche d'espèces protégées Espèces en voie d'extinction: grand requin: ailerons, chair, thon rouge Surexploitation des ressources maritimes, selon FAO 26M tonnes = 15 % prises totales.

Arg3: Les Etats tentent également de lutter contre les trafics illégaux

• Lutte contre la pêche illicite Selon FAO = 15 et 20 % des prises => 23 Milliards $ /an Moins de préservation du stock renouvelable = surpêche Concurrence déloyale = pecheurs + respect quotas

• Lutte contre le trafic de cocaïne 2017 - 2019: Cocaïne saisie à bord d'embarcations commerciales x3 = 73 tonnes Moyens ? Sous marins artisanaux, Ou ? Antilles = plaque tournante Quelles saisies ? 3 tonnes sous marins par police espagnole en 2019

• Lutte contre le trafic des déchets Cout traitement + législation contraignante = Etats exportent leurs déchets / filières illégales ==> Pays d'Asie et d'Afrique: ++ déchets électroniques Malaisie => FR: 43 conteneurs de plastique illégaux

Arg2: les EM sont confrontés à de la piraterie maritime à laquelle les Etats tentent de faire face

• Opération de lutte contre la piraterie 2008: Eunavfor = Opération ATALANTE / Golfe d'Aden : Somalie. Soutient bases militaires = Djibouti => Dissuasion => Répression

Arg1: La militarisation des EM

• l'hégémonie américaine EU: 10 portes avions + bases militaires + 7flottes = forte capacité de projection

• le rattrapage chinois et russe CHINE: 2 portes avions -Liaoning et Shandong depuis Décembre 2019) = Sécurisation Nouvelles routes de la Soie + enjeux M de Chine méridionale et orientale RUSSIE: Forces navales car coopération militaire (Syrie) et ambitions (Arctique). Nouveau SNLE en Mer Blanche (Mai 2018)

• les puissances émergentes Iran, Inde, Turquie, Brésil (commande de 4 SNA à Naval Group - Décembre 2020)

Arg3: Les EM sont au coeur de tensions géopolitiques entre les Etats qui se disputent l'accès aux ressources halieutiques, hauturières et aux routes maritimes

• Mer de Chine méridionale Chine // Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonésie, Malaison "langue de boeuf" => Archipel des Spratleys + Îles Paracels Zone de trafic CMM Territorialisation , militarisation des EM Mars 2020: percussion bateau de pêche vietnamien

• Mer de Chine Orientale Chine // Japon Îles Senkaku et Diaoyu COVID19: Liaoning traverse ZEE jap

• Mer méditerranée Turquie // Grèce // Chypre // Israël // Liban EM triangulaire de 850km² = réserves de gaz ?

Arg1: La délimitation des ZEE est héritée de la Convention de Montego Bay

• En 1982 est adoptée la CNUDM, réègles internationale utilisation, exploitation, circulation des espaces maritimes

• Eaux territoriales: droits souverains de l'Etat jusqu'à 22km

• La ZEE: droits souverains de l'Etat à des fins d'exploration, d'exploitation, de conservation et de gestion des ressources naturelles jusqu'à 200 miles / 370 km.==> 350 km si extension avec le plateau continental selon Convention de Genève (1958)

• Haute mer: 64% surface des MO, "bien commun de l'humanité" - Résolution 2749 de l'ONU, Arvid Pardo (1970) Exploitation= licences Autorité Internationale des Fonds Marins (AIFM) // liberté de circulation, survol, recherche sc, pose pipe line, cables, ... ==> Mare liberum car "terra nullius"

• liberté de circulation, "mare liberum" De la liberté des mers, Grotius, XVIIe Un Etat ne peut pas restreindre la circulation d'un navire étrangers hors de ses eaux territoriales. Idem Etats proches d'un passage stratégique

Arg 2: Les frontières maritimes ne sont pas figées

• ZEE = modèle théorique difficilement applicable contentieux entre pays cotiers: Cour Internationale de Justice (1945), Cour permanente d'arbitrage (1899) EX: Fixation ZEE, Ghana - Côte d'Ivoire (2013)

• ZEE : demande prolongation Demande extension du plateau continental

This page has an audio clip of the speech, but the US National Archives has captioned video as well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVvTk9ThEG4

Krammer, Florian. ‘SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines in Development’. Nature, 23 September 2020, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2798-3.

Paper para replicar!

Bordo, M. D., Levin, A. T., & Levy, M. D. (2020). Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications (Working Paper No. 27369; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27369

eröffnet 1964

Agreed; there's a newly made documentary on the Swedish involvement with the nazis. The documentary is "En svensk tiger"

King George II died on October 25, 1760, and was succeeded by his grandson, George III. During his reign, George II's reign oversaw the War of Austrian Succession and the Seven Years' War. As Secretary of State, William Pitt the Elder directed the policy of the Seven Years' War.

Designed during the first months of World War II, the Canol Pipeline brought oil from Norman Wells near the Mackenzie River to Whitehorse, Yukon Territory. Once the oil was refined, it would be sent to Alaska via pipeline to ensure that the Japanese navy could not intercept any transport. The oil deposits at Norman Wells were discovered by the explorer Alexander Mackenzie during the 18th century. In January of 1942, Lieutenant General Brehon Somervell, commanding general of the Army Service Forces, ordered James H. Graham, former dean of engineering at the University of Kentucky, to investigate the possibility of harvesting oil from Norman Wells. On April 29, 1942, General Somervell immediately approved the recommendation of Dean Graham to implement a pipeline from Norman Wells to Whitehorse (O'Brien, 1970). The construction began in 1942 and was completed in 1944 by the United States Army. A road was also constructed alongside the Canol pipeline during this time. In 1945, soon after the completion of the Canol Pipeline, the volume of crude oil that was able to be transported compared to the cost of operating the pipeline could not be justified. The Canol Pipeline was shut down and abandoned in 1945 (Wilson, 1991). 

References

O'Brien, C. F. (1970). The Canol Project: A Study in Emergency Military Planning. The Pacific Northwest Quarterly, 101-108.

Wilson, W. H. (1991). Review: A Walk on teh Canol Road: Exploring the First Major Northern Pipeline. The Pacific Northwest Quarterly, 114.

The Northwest Staging Route was an airfield between Alaska and Alberta. The airfield was used for military personal to transfer supplies from Canada to Alaska in World War II (Christie). The string of airfields along the Northwest Staging Route were responsible for great contributions to the North American war effort. The earliest records of the Northwest Staging Route are from a survey by the Canadian Department of Transportation in 1935, but the Northwest Staging Route only consisted of a few airstrips by the 1940s. The Route was not used until right before the attack at Pearl Harbor. After the attack, America greatly increased their work on the Route and prepared the airfields due to fears that the Japanese would attack Alaska. The first few tests of the Northwest Staging Route airfields were unsuccessful and several planes were crashed in the process. The airfields were undeveloped and the pilots untrained. The Canadian government attempted to fix the Staging Route alone, but received pressure from the United States. Canada and the United States worked together on improving the airfields in 1943. Overtime, the Canadian government feared permanent United States presence along the Route. The two governments eventually came to an agreement where Canada would reimburse the United States for any permanent improvements to the airfields. At the conclusion of the war, the United States ceased military action in Canada. Canada then struggled with documentation of aircraft along the Northwest Staging Route, which was resolved after a conference with American air force members in August of 1943.

Reference: Christie, Carl A. "The Northwest Staging Route." Homefront in Alberta - The Northwest Staging Route. Accessed May 03, 2017. http://wayback.archive-it.org/2217/20101208171343/http://www.albertasource.ca/homefront/feature_articles/northwest_staging_route4.html.

The Alaska Highway was originally constructed for and used by the military during World War II which lasted from 1939 to 1945. It was opened in November of 1942. Its length reached nearly 1,525 miles. When Richard Bucksar wrote his article The Alaska Highway Development published in the journal Arctic Volume 27, Number 1 in 1974, the Alaska Highway had not been paved in its entirety despite many proposals to do so. In 1974, it remained mostly a gravel road described as “rough and uneven” (Bucksar 1974, 74). About 400 of the 1,525 miles were paved. 

Since the Alaska Highway passes through Canadian territory to connect the continental United States to Alaska, both country’s governments had to be consulted regarding improvements to the Alaska Highway. The Canadian Parliament and United States Congress were presented with numerous proposals to improve the Alaska Highway including improving the road, developing railways, introducing new sea-routes, reconstructing, paving, etc. (Bucksar 1974, 74-75). Mostly all of these propositions were not passed since alternate “adequate modes of transportation were developing and that the expected traffic on the [Alaska] Highway did not warrant reconstruction and paving at that time” (Bucksar 1974, 78). 

The Alaska Highway was the only land-based link between Alaska and the continental United States. Some towns, cities, and other landmarks that the Alaska Highway passes through include Dawson Creek, Fort Saint John, Fort Nelson, Muncho Lake Provincial Park, Liard River Hotsprings Provincial Park, Watson Lake, Teslin, Whitehorse, Halnes Junction, Beaver Creek, Delta Junction, North Pole, Fairbanks, and many more. A detailed current map of the Alaska Highway is displayed below. 

References

The Milepost. Alaska Highway. 2016. https://www.themilepost.com/highway-info/highways/alaska-highway (accessed April 4, 2017).

Bucksar, Richard G. "The Alaska Highway Development." Arctic 27, no. 1 (1974): 74-80. http://www.jstor.org.ezproxy.bucknell.edu/stable/40508483.

https://hypothes.is/groups/d9iWw2wW/english-ii-1a

Annotate this document using the strategies covered in our discussion at the beginning of class (before, during, after). Use the English II tag in your annotations.

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