schrodinger’s antivaxx

So, @JeffreyZients is in charge. But not in charge.

When did 4.5% of children in any age group being infected *every wk* become ok for any disease?

interesting SciComm on Twitter development- the dedicated translator

no worse- he took Medley's comment that Sage model the scenarios the government asks them to consider to mean that they basically set out to find the justification for what the government already wanted to do. Complete failure to distinguish between inputs and outputs of a model

Let me guess, FN thought that the model "failed to predict" something? (because the scenario didn't eventuate, which of course has nothing to do with the model). All thoroughly familiar from climate denial.

one of the more depressing moments of pandemic discourse for me was recent exchange between @FraserNelson and @GrahamMedley where FN thought he had scored an amazing "gotcha" moment, when all exchange showed was FN not understanding what phrase "model a scenario" means..

This is such an important point. You cannot look at data without a model. You cannot even look at anything in the world without a model--e.g. theory of mind, which only infants and people in a coma do without. All those model-bashers just reveal their ignorance @SciBeh

BA.2 has a growth rate advantage over BA.1 of ca 0.11/day. That's quite sizeable. If it would have the same short generation time as BA.1 of 2.2 days it would imply a ca.1.3x higher transmissibility, due to higher contagiousness or immune escape.

47/ And finally, GBD, Tucker from AIER/Brownstone, Clare Craig from HART etc are operating in Uganda to increase vax hesitancy and build the antivax movement In how many other countries are they doing the same? Heinous

46/ Good money in podcasts £30k a month good, thats part of the issue, many of them do this full time while those of us fighting for sense are working full time

45/ And of course this can easily be debunked, Davis surely must have seen the corrections fill his TL, yet its still up and being quoted by others Doesn't help those falling for conspiracy theories to have MPs spreading this crap

44/ Recently we had @DavidDavisMP getting his facts from a podcast and claiming deaths had been massively overstated

43/ Once again another Ivermectin study turns our to be junk

42/ Just America's Frontline Doctors alone are estimated to have taken in at least $15 million for consultations and alternative treatments

41/ $2.5million just from subsstack, where Nawaz from LBC is now plying his conspiracy theories

40/ And the grift is growing

39/ In the UK we see another attempt at a Proud Boys tribute act, some people really want aggressive paramilitaries on UK streets Also seeing a poliferation of "common law constables"

38/ Special shout out to Tenpenny for most insane comment of the month Quantum entanglement to steal your bank details!

37/ Of course the far right groups like the Proud Boys have joined in, starting to look like the antivax movement is being subsumed into the far right

36/ Once again its the same ecosystem of overlapping groups and narratives in the US "Defeat the Mandate" also came with a festival of fruitloops

35/ We see groups of politicians, media, astroturf, academics, the far right all coming into alignment and cooperation to undermine the pandemic effort with disinformation and political pressure on a weakened Prime Minister who only cares about his job

31/ Even the Mail had some questions about him

34/ Then we see those involved in the NHS astroturf campaign linked to the #TogetherDeclaration campaign also have far rights links, and Russian links

33/ And what a suprise Steve Baker of CRG is also in on the action

32/ Now we have a midwife as well, "I'm not antivax, but..." Also linked to the new disinformation campaign

30/ We have the "I'm not antivax but..." NHS guy who Javid spoke to quickly being handed a platform and given prominence by the disinformation groups/campaigns

29/ We also have new astroturf organisation and campaigns not just against mandates but also putting out a lot of disinformation

28/ We even end up with articles encouraging us to speed the spread of covid

28/ Now there's another one on children which they are all quoting as "incredibly robust", its not rare, no need for measures A look at the issues with this study

27/ In the UK we have Munro, Ladhani and Dingwall minimising long covid

26/ Some in the BBC also responsible for trying to normalise preventable deaths

26/ We saw the usual ppl trying to minimise the scale of the Omicron wave by blaming testing

25/ And Molly Kingsley of UsForThem also at it in the Mail

24/ Other examples Misuse of statistics on lockdown harms to children, just as the urgency of normality have done No suprise to see Lucy Johnson at it

23/ Just look how Sunetra Gupta was silenced last week by writing an article in the Telegraph that reached a large audience. She now says herd immunity means constant reinfection, thats how we protect the vulnerable

22/But remember its the GBD who see themselves as the martyrs of the pandemic, forge about their meetings with politicians, their support from swathes of the RW media, their the ones being silenced

21/ The CRG and the APPG sponsored by the GBDs Collateral Global fill the media with disinformation on a daily basis The APPGs recent attempts to halt vaccination of under 16s shows how far they've embraced the ideology

20/ Issue is that its Bhattacharya who the CRG MPs currently quoting as they oppose all measures in schools, calling for masks to be completely banned

19/ More time and effort has been spent on gaslighting to keep measures out of schools than any other aspect of the pandemic It is after all the key part of a pro-infection herd immunity strategy Great read here on Bhattacharya

18/ Appears Kulldorff has been deleted off LinkedIn

17/ What we are dealing with is not just a difference of opinion between experts, its deliberately muddying the waters and there seems to be concern that its the antivaxxers and conspiracy theorists who are lapping this up

16/ It also appears there's been manipulation o VAER to support these dredging tactics Thousand of adverse reactions reported from a single IP

15/ If you're willing to support the pro-infection agenda then it seems you'll be offered a short cut to gaining a large platform

14/ Misuse and misrepresentation of VAER is a standard tactic of antivaxxers

13/ Last year Hoeg was one of those behind the paper that dredged VAER massively inflating the risk of myocarditis from vax Turner of the Telegraph promoted it poisoning the debate on child vax in the UK

12/ More on those concerns

10/ As a full time school worker the idea we can get back to normal in the short term is a joke The "toolkit" they've produced is another example of the weaponisation of mental health to support pro infection policies

9/ In the US a load of them have teamed up for Urgency of Normality However schools can't have normality whilst policy makers and other adults accept high infection rates

8/ More examples of Ghandi

7/ Examples of how Noble, Ghandi and Prasad have undermined public health messaging

7/ Yet when caught or called out there will be clarifications and accusations of being misinterpreted and taken out of context, never contrition. Playing both sides on PH messaging doesn't work

6/ Having minimised covid harms, they find themselves playing down the benefits of vaccination For example in the US, Vinay Prasad has ended with messaging likely to increase hesitancy and embolden antivaxxers A look at an example of this

5/ There is a reoccurring theme of dividing children into "healthy" and "comordity" then dismissing concerns an individualistic approach to measures leaves vulnerable children greater risk Same vulnerable children they claim to champion when convenient

4/ These academics provide a statistical shield for policy makers to justify not taking transmission in schools seriously Their minimising of risks is also used by antivaxxers to reinforce their beliefs An example from US is Emily Oster

3/ Those minimising the impact on schools and children are an important part of the disinformation ecosystem Each country has a small group of over publicised academics fighting against all measures backed up by astroturf campaign groups

2/ As always theres been a focus in gaslighting around schools and children In the UK education is facing serious disruption due to a lack of measures so adults can pretend everythings back to normal while politicians still chase the herd immunity unicorn

1/Some questionable stats, studies and statements over past 6 week Examples and evaluation First of all its worth looking at the impact some studies and articles have had in recent months

#COVID Case and Hospitalization Update: -17,305 New Cases -8,741 Hospitalizations (-594) -134 New deaths reported by healthcare facilities through HERDS

Two important updates from our team this week: - Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic disease after Omicron BA.2 shows that VE remains unchanged - VE against death after Omicron BA.1 shows VE is 95% at 2+ weeks after booster 1/7 Full report

Overall - these are great news. -Despite the increased prevalence of sub-lineage BA.2 in the UK, there does not appear to be a decrease in VE as compared to BA.1. - The booster vaccines remain effective against the most severe outcomes of Omicron infection.

At 25+ weeks following the second dose, vaccine effectiveness was around 60% while at 2+ weeks following a booster vaccine effectiveness was 95% against mortality.

VE against mortality with Omicron BA.1 was estimated for those aged 50+ by combining the risk of becoming a symptomatic case with the risk of death among symptomatic cases in vaccinated (all vaccines combined) compared to unvaccinated individuals.

Next, VE against death for Omicron BA.1. Although we have previously observed waning of the boosters against symptomatic disease during Omicron infection, protection of the boosters has been well maintained against severe disease when we have looked at hospitalisations.

VE after 2 doses and after the booster dose was similar for BA.1 and BA.2. After 2 doses VE was 9% (7-10%) and 13% (-26-40%) respectively for BA.1 and BA.2, after 25+ weeks. This increased to 63% for BA.1 and 70% for BA.2 at 2+ weeks after a booster.

First, VE against BA.2. The Omicron sub-lineage known as BA.2 was designated VUI-22JAN-01 on 19 January. VE against symptomatic disease was analysed in a test-negative case control design. Pillar 2 data from symptomatic cases tested between 27/12 & 21/01 were included. 2/7

NEW: Vaccine effectiveness (symptomatic infection) data for BA.2 {Omicron’s more infectious sister} NO difference in VE between Omicron (BA.1) and BA.2 Possibly even higher VE for BA.2 but estimates overlap

Guy who says his natural immunity was a good stand in for mRNA accuses others of undermining vaccination

but this account is meant to be an information account, not one for discussing my personal views.

personally, I'd consider it a natural, considerate, and moral response to avoid contact with others when carrying an infection that can be dangerous to others. So what seems dystopian to me, is not doing so, and not creating the social/financial conditions that allow it.

One in four 35- to 54-year-olds in England not complying with Covid self-isolation

@DrJBhattarcharya's behavior is especially disgraceful because he has the credentials and appearance of a person doing this type of science, when in practice, he is engaged in sophistry to justify his predetermined conclusions.

Policy issues are complex and difficult -- some of the best scientists (e.g. @ProfEmilyOster) look at the data for themselves and reach conclusions that are at odds with many epidemiologists. This work is essential.

This experience casts in a new and more sinister light Jay's past policy mistakes, such as his claim that Covid mortality was substantially lower than epidemiologists believed and so Covid would lead to fewer deaths than a typical flu season:

His assessment of the DANMASK trial as showing that masks are ineffective is also equally misleading as I explained in my declaration to the court.

Despite admitting to me in private correspondence that focusing on the absolute reduction in risk was misleading relative to the proportional reduction, he did *exactly this* in the court case before he knew I would be there to correct him.

Jay knows all of this since I messaged him privately to correct his misrepresentations, and he saw it all again when I testified in the trial to correct his misrepresentations but he keeps repeating his misleading statements in public forums.

6) We have cross-sectional evidence showing that villages with larger increases in mask-wearing had larger reductions in symptoms and symptomatic seropositivity, in line w/ our other estimates.

5) We have precise estimates for symptoms and symptomatic seropositivity at older age groups, esp. for surgical masks, where the CI rules out less than a 15% reduction (and includes a 55% reduction)

3) The CI for Covid symptoms is a 7-17% reduction (from our 30 pp increase in masking). 4) Our standard errors for symptomatic seropositivity drop by half under alternative (equally plausible) ways of imputing missing values, w/ a CI of 6-20%.

1) We can rule out a zero effect w/ a p-value of .032 in the specification to which Jay refers 2) This is the *reduced form* from an increase in masking from 13% to 42%; so universal masking might be several times as effective

This is an absurd mischaracterization of our results as Jay is well aware. What does it get wrong?

He now summarizes our study in Newsweek by saying, "In a study in Bangladesh, the 95 percent confidence interval showed that masks reduced transmission between 0 percent and 18 percent. Hence, masks are either of zero or limited benefit."

The judge disallowed him as an expert witness because of his repeated misrepresentations:

I recently testified pro bono in a trial about masking in schools (in my view, a complex question) for the sole purpose of explaining that the court should not trust @DrJBhattarcharya because he is deliberately misleading people about our study and others.

It is sad. @DrJBhattarcharya is the worst example I have personally seen of someone who was previously a scholar but who now engages in repeated misrepresentation of scientific results to serve a partisan agenda.

The sad thing is that @MartinKulldorff and @DrJBhattacharya once were taken seriously. I'm the last person to say Tony Fauci is always right, but these two have turned into parodies of their former selves. This is just embarassing.

When the pandemic hit, America needed someone to turn to for advice. The media and public naturally looked to Dr. Anthony Fauci—the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an esteemed laboratory immunologist and one of President Donald Trump's chosen COVID advisers. Unfortunately, Dr. Fauci got major epidemiology and public health questions wrong. Reality and scientific studies have now caught up with him.

How Fauci Fooled America | Opinion

Anyone who is unwilling to disclose their vaccine status has disclosed their vaccine status

This page is about misinformation specific to the COVID-19 vaccines.

Myths about COVID-19 vaccination

Many children under five years old have been "bunker babies" for almost two years. Experts explain what this means for different populations and how they will recover.

How pandemic isolation is affecting young kids' developing minds

‘Understanding who is more likely to believe certain types of misinformation brings us closer to understanding why this is the case, which in turn may help us address this concerning issue.’

Patients undergoing treatment for cancer more susceptible to COVID-19 misinformation, study finds

Latest COVID data from the Office for National Statistics shows the rate for all reinfections has increased since early December 2021 - likely driven by the rapid spread of the new variant.

COVID: Reinfection risk from Omicron 16 times higher than Delta, ONS data indicates

A new study has compared the amount of inaccurate COVID-19 information online early in the pandemic to the amount of misinformation about other health issues.The authors describe the abundance of COVID-19 misinformation as entirely predictable, based on the inaccuracy of other health information.An expert suggested to Medical News Today that people seeking information are considering more than just the reliability of the source.

COVID-19 misinformation was 'entirely predictable,’ experts say

Ontario’s health minister is urging the regulatory body overseeing the province’s health professionals to crack down on a group of doctors spreading unverified medical information about the COVID-19 vaccines, after the situation was brought to light in a Global News investigation.

COVID-19 disinformation sharing by Canadian doctors ‘extremely concerning’: Ontario health minister

Schools ​and nurseries up and down the country have been struggling with high absence rates, and a poor supply of tests only make​s things worse.

Lack of lateral flow tests in schools putting staff and children at risk, says UNISON

COPENHAGEN, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The pandemic has blocked Novak Djokovic's march to tennis history, so the 34-year-old may be pinning his hopes on a cure for COVID to get his hands on another glorious grand slam before time runs out.

Djokovic bets on a COVID cure as he quests for tennis history

COVID-19 cases have surged around the world lately leaving more people than ever infected with the virus. This has raised a lot of questions about immunity against future COVID infections and whether positive cases really get something of a “grace period” post-COVID where they’re extra protected. Swipe to close Let’s break down some of the facts and unknowns around COVID-19 immunity.

How Long Are You Actually Immune for After Recovering From COVID-19?

Well I can't SEE any Covid particles (I'm sure they are there)...but I can see another boatload of horrid these purifiers are sucking out of rooms at school:

This 4-part non-credit online course was designed with the input of NorQuest faculty to introduce students to concepts of misinformation and help them practice valuable critical thinking skills. The content is accessible, interactive and engaging. The following topics are addressed: Misinformation and it's various forms including fake news and disinformation Evaluating information using techniques such as lateral reading News literacy, science literacy and conspiracy theories The role of bias in spreading misinformation

Fake-Believe: An Introduction to Misinformation

Arguments can be good or bad, and that difference is not just a matter of subjective preference. Rather, argumentation research has spent centuries identifying how and why some arguments are stronger than others. This includes understanding why some arguments (so-called ‘fallacies’) can fool the unwary into thinking they provide good reasons for believing or doing something when, in fact, they do not.

Argument quality and fallacies

Short shelf life, lack of fridges are main reasonsAbout 16 mln doses destroyed from 100 mln rejected -UNICEFNearly 700 mln delivered doses stored in poor nationsWHO's COVAX programme approaches 1 bln doses shipped

Poorer nations reject over 100 mln COVID-19 vaccine doses as many near expiry